i
Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia
-
2016
Source: PLOS ONE
[PDF-12.06 MB]
Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed
Details:
-
Journal Title:PLOS ONE
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios-internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population-to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:PLOS ONE
-
Pubmed Central ID:PMC4814075
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Place as Subject:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:PMC
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:ec3456a123c9ef15ff60f30da22e1a7f8d2c79ca5e4511b384b973a15174291e
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Allen, Camryn D. ;Robbins, Michelle N....2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(10): e0138861.Description:Determining sex ratios of endangered populations is important for wildlife management, particularly species subject to sex-specific threats or that ex...Personal Author:Simeone, Claire A. ;Gulland, Frances M. D....2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(11): e0142105.Description:Marine mammals are often cited as "sentinels of ocean health" yet accessible, synthesized data on their health changes that could effectively warn of ...2016 | PLOS ONE. 2016; 11(6): e0157170.Description:Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea su...Personal Author:Magris, Rafael A. ;Heron, Scott F....2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(11): e0140828.Description:Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that...Personal Author:Hunsperger, Heather M. ;Ford, Christopher J....2016 | PLOS ONEDescription:Background Diatoms (Bacilliariophyceae) encode two light-dependent protochlorophyllide oxidoreductases (POR1 and POR2) that catalyze the penultimate s...Personal Author:Luo, Jiangang ;Ault, Jerald S....2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(10): e0141101.Description:For centuries, the mechanisms surrounding spatially complex animal migrations have intrigued scientists and the public. We present a new methodology u...Personal Author:Daly, Elizabeth A. ;Brodeur, Richard D.2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(12): e0144066.Description:The trophic habits, size and condition of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) caught early in their marine residence were examined duri...Personal Author:Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo ;Richards, Cristi L....2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(12): e0142196.Description:This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2) yr(-1)) of early...An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing ClimateCitePersonal Author:Weijerman, Mariska ;Fulton, Elizabeth A....2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(12): e0144165.Description:Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and th...2017 | PLOS ONE. 2017; 12(4): e0175066.Description:The advancement of metabarcoding techniques, declining costs of high-throughput sequencing and development of systematic sampling devices, such as aut...Personal Author:Brown, Larry R. ;Komoroske, Lisa M....2016 | PLOS ONE. 2016; 11(1): e0146724.Description:Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scal...2019 | PLOS ONE. 2019; 14(4): e0214972.Description:Sea turtle populations are often assessed at the regional to sub-basin scale from discrete indices of nesting abundance. While this may be practical a...Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Cordoba, Argentina)Cite2016 | PLOS ONE. 2016; 11(6): e0156672.Description:Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Cordoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. S...On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in EcologyCitePersonal Author:Conn, Paul B. ;Johnson, Devin S....2015 | PLOS ONE. 2015; 10(10): e0141416.Description:Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predic...Personal Author:Timpane-Padgham, Britta L. ;Beechie, Tim...2017 | PLOS ONE. 2017; 12(3): e0173812.Description:Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use ...
More +
You May Also Like
2018 | PLoS Comput Biol 14(4): e1006038, 2018.
Description:
Over the past decades, science has experienced rapid growth in the volume of data available for research—from a relative paucity of data in many are...
2019 | Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 145(724): 2876-2908, 2019
Description:
Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnos...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov