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Reconciling divergent estimates of oil and gas methane emissions
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2015
Source: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Dec 22; 112(51): 15597-15602.
[PDF-906.05 KB]
Details:
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Journal Title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States
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Personal Author:Zavala-Araiza, Daniel ; Lyon, David R. ; Alvarez, Ramón A. ; Davis, Kenneth J. ; Harriss, Robert ; ... More +Zavala-Araiza, Daniel ; Lyon, David R. ; Alvarez, Ramón A. ; Davis, Kenneth J. ; Harriss, Robert ; Herndon, Scott C. ; Karion, Anna ; Kort, Eric Adam ; Lamb, Brian K. ; Lan, Xin ; Marchese, Anthony J. ; Pacala, Stephen W. ; Robinson, Allen L. ; Shepson, Paul B. ; Sweeney, Colm ; Talbot, Robert ; Townsend-Small, Amy ; Yacovitch, Tara I. ; Zimmerle, Daniel J. ; Hamburg, Steven P. Less -
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NOAA Program & Office:
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Description:Published estimates of methane emissions from atmospheric data (top-down approaches) exceed those from source-based inventories (bottom-up approaches), leading to conflicting claims about the climate implications of fuel switching from coal or petroleum to natural gas. Based on data from a coordinated campaign in the Barnett Shale oil and gas-producing region of Texas, we find that top-down and bottom-up estimates of both total and fossil methane emissions agree within statistical confidence intervals (relative differences are 10% for fossil methane and 0.1% for total methane). We reduced uncertainty in top-down estimates by using repeated mass balance measurements, as well as ethane as a fingerprint for source attribution. Similarly, our bottom-up estimate incorporates a more complete count of facilities than past inventories, which omitted a significant number of major sources, and more effectively accounts for the influence of large emission sources using a statistical estimator that integrates observations from multiple ground-based measurement datasets. Two percent of oil and gas facilities in the Barnett accounts for half of methane emissions at any given time, and high-emitting facilities appear to be spatiotemporally variable. Measured oil and gas methane emissions are 90% larger than estimates based on the US Environmental Protection Agency's Greenhouse Gas Inventory and correspond to 1.5% of natural gas production. This rate of methane loss increases the 20-y climate impacts of natural gas consumed in the region by roughly 50%.
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Source:Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Dec 22; 112(51): 15597-15602.
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC4697433
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Document Type:
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Rights Information:Other
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Compliance:PMC
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Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:b78ec35131f66ee9f8ef71047fb27d7ea46aea04ee4534bb1c12e25c7cbfa008
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