Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

Zhang, Banglin; Lindzen, Richard S.; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A.; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1613800113

i

Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

2016
By Zhang, Banglin ; Lindzen, Richard S. ; Tallapragada, Vijay ; ...

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Journal Title:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States
Personal Author:

Zhang, Banglin ; Lindzen, Richard S. ; Tallapragada, Vijay ; Weng, Fuzhong ; Liu, Qingfu ; Sippel, Jason A. ; Ma, Zaizhong ; Bender, Morris A.
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.
Keywords:

Hurricanes Modelling Tracks
Source:

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Oct 18; 113(42): 11765-11769.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613800113
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5081634
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:005607209a8b60b1273f0ac7283581ee3cd95c5e9d40bbaff057e74ebcd3ab1d8b9024669dacf1627db303c0c1906b02dfeb586bdeaeb0da19b9f06182ea8307
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/24359/noaa_24359_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 4.80 MB ]

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