Variable vital rates and the risk of population declines in Adélie penguins from the Antarctic Peninsula region
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Help
Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Help
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

i

Variable vital rates and the risk of population declines in Adélie penguins from the Antarctic Peninsula region

Filetype[PDF-1.42 MB]


Details Related Documents You May Also Like

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Ecosphere
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    Predicting population responses in changing environments is an important task for ecologists. In polar regions, climate warming, loss of sea ice, and more frequent anomalous events suggest that further reductions in ice‐dependent animal populations are likely. We assess the risk of near‐term (30‐year) depletion of an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae ) population with a stochastic matrix model parameterized with 30 yr (1982–2011) of data from the Copacabana colony on King George Island, Antarctica. The model was fitted to nest census data by estimating correction factors for survival rates estimated from a multi‐state mark–recapture model. We modeled future survival and fecundity scenarios during the projection period (2012–2041) based on a two‐state Markov chain that randomly assigned survival rates and reproductive success from their respective historical distributions to represent “good” and “poor” years. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate population trajectories across a range of progressively worse survival conditions. The results suggest that, given historical distributions of survival and reproductive success, a limited scope for recovery of the population is present, commensurate with recent stabilization in population size at the study site. However, our projections mainly suggest that the Adélie penguin population will decline if the frequency of years with poor survival remains at, or increases above, its 30‐year mean. The risk of local depletion within 30 yr, defined according to International Union for Conservation of Nature categories for endangered and critically endangered species, was 33% for >90% declines, but near 100% for 50% declines given status‐quo conditions. As survival conditions worsen, the risk of substantive depletions rose rapidly. Given expectations of further environmental and ecosystem changes in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, continued declines in Adélie penguin population size at the northern extent of their range should be expected.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Ecosphere 8(1): e01666
  • DOI:
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files

More +

Related Documents

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.26