Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Nino in 2014

Dong, Lu; McPhaden, Michael J.

doi:10.1038/s41598-018-20294-4

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Nino in 2014

2018
By Dong, Lu ; McPhaden, Michael J.
Source: Scientific Reports 8 (2249)

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Details:

Journal Title:

Scientific Reports
Personal Author:

Dong, Lu ; McPhaden, Michael J.

Dong, Lu ; McPhaden, Michael J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) Less -
Description:

In early 2014, strong westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and high heat content in the equatorial Pacific favored development of a major El Nino. However, significant coupling between the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere failed to take hold during boreal summer of 2014 such that only borderline El Nino conditions were evident by the end of the year. Observational analysis suggests that warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean in 2014 weakened westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific and may have helped to arrest the development of the El Nino. We test this hypothesis using an ensemble of coupled numerical experiments in which observed Indian Ocean SST anomalies in 2014-15 are prescribed but the Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system is free to evolve. Results confirm that warm SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean created conditions that would have favored a weakening of El Nino by suppressing the Bjerknes feedback in boreal summer of 2014. This process does not preclude others that have been proposed in the unusual evolution of El Nino SSTs in 2014, but it adds to the list a forcing mechanism external to the Pacific basin.
Keywords:

[+]

Climate Change El Niño Current Ocean-atmosphere Interaction
Source:

Scientific Reports 8 (2249)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20294-4
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5797157
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Indian Ocean
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:19f29424dae16af92716c2a895dcee9ac23273042ecb77fd793105e41bb55877
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/24033/noaa_24033_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF-2.27 MB]