The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
Sub-seasonal Predictability of the Onset and Demise of the Rainy Season over Monsoonal Regions
-
2017
-
-
Source: Front. Earth Sci., 17 February 2017
[PDF-7.74 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Frontiers in Earth Science
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) retrospective forecasts from three global coupled models are used to evaluate the predictability of the onset and demise dates of the rainy season over monsoonal regions. The onset and demise dates of the rainy season are defined using only precipitation data. The forecasts of the onset and demise dates of the rainy season are based on a hybrid methodology that combines observations and simulations. Although skillful model precipitation predictions remain challenging in many regions, our results show that they are skillful enough to identify onset and demise dates of the rainy season in many monsoon regions at sub-seasonal (~30 days) lead-times in retrospective forecasts. We verify sub-seasonal prediction skill for the onset and demise dates of the rainy season over South America, East Asia, and Northern Australia. However, we find low prediction skill for the onset and demise of the rainy season on sub-seasonal scales over the Indian monsoon region. This information would be valuable to sectors related to water management.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Front. Earth Sci., 17 February 2017
-
DOI:
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
