Which recruitment scenario is most likely for conducting future stock projections of Western and Central North Pacific Ocean striped marlin?

Brodziak, Jon K. T. (Jon Kenton Tarsus); Sculley, Michelle

doi:10.25923/7ak7-yz80

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Which recruitment scenario is most likely for conducting future stock projections of Western and Central North Pacific Ocean striped marlin?

2020
By Brodziak, Jon K. T. (Jon Kenton Tarsus) ; Sculley, Michelle
Series: PIFSC working paper ; WP-20-002

[PDF-139.85 KB]

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Personal Author:

Brodziak, Jon K. T. (Jon Kenton Tarsus) ; Sculley, Michelle

Brodziak, Jon K. T. (Jon Kenton Tarsus) ; Sculley, Michelle Less -
Corporate Authors:

United States. National Marine Fisheries Service ; Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (U.S.)

United States. National Marine Fisheries Service ; Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (U.S.) Less -
Conference Authors:

Billfish Working Group, International Scientific Committee for Tuna and ; Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean, Jan 30−Feb 4, 2020, Taipei, Taiwan

Billfish Working Group, International Scientific Committee for Tuna and ; Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean, Jan 30−Feb 4, 2020, Taipei, Taiwan Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; PIFSC (Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center)

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; PIFSC (Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center) Less -
Description:

Several analyses were conducted to address the request of the Northern Committee of the Western and Central North Pacific Fisheries Commission for the ISC Billfish Working Group to provide advice on which recruitment scenario was most likely for the 2019 Western and Central North Pacific Ocean striped marlin stock assessment projections. Linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the time trend of the recruitment estimates from the stock assessment. The results showed a significant long-term decline in age-0 recruits indicating that using a long-term recruitment trend for future projections was not consistent with the observed recent recruitment values. The long-term decline in recruitment, combined with the better out-of-sample predictive accuracy of the short-term recruitment scenario and the observation that recruitment for billfishes are generally positively auto-correlated, led us to conclude that the short-term recruitment scenario was the most likely recruitment scenario for conducting future stock projections for Western and Central North Pacific Ocean striped marlin.
Keywords:

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Estimates Evaluation Fish Stock Assessment Mathematical Models Striped Marlin
Series:

PIFSC working paper ; WP-20-002
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25923/7ak7-yz80
Document Type:

Working Paper
Place as Subject:

North Pacific Ocean
Rights Information:

Public Domain
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:264cccd56525c8a99c6d342efdf2281bce9c51d0993d9e3f0e19543d68cec666
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/23715/noaa_23715_DS1.pdf
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Which recruitment scenario is most likely for conducting future stock projections of Western and Central North Pacific Ocean striped marlin?

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