Estimation and removal of forecast cycle stray

Thiébaux, H. J.; Morone, Lauren L.

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Estimation and removal of forecast cycle stray

1988
By Thiébaux, H. J. ; Morone, Lauren L.
Series: Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 341.

[PDF-2.14 MB]

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Personal Author:

Thiébaux, H. J. ; Morone, Lauren L.

Thiébaux, H. J. ; Morone, Lauren L. Less -
Corporate Authors:

National Meteorological Center (U.S.) ; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)

National Meteorological Center (U.S.) ; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.) Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Less -
Description:

We have found spatial and temporal coherencies in the departures of shortrange- forecasts from observed and analyzed geopotential fields, which can be used diagnostically and as the basis for adjustment of forecast products. We identify characteristics of the differences between forecast and observed, and forecast and analyzed values; and we demonstrate the significant impact on forecast accuracy which may be gained through the routine estimation and removal of these discrepancies. In addition, we devised and tested a mechanism for estimating and removing these discrepancies, globally, in the data assimilation step of the forecast cycle.
Keywords:

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Mathematical Models Numerical Weather Forecasting Quality Control Weather Forecasting
Series:

Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 341.
Document Type:

Office Note
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Public Domain
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Library
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urn:sha256:7fe6c5c89644bd0c0f89b494d5ccbd7eae20e5aedd572816f9889cc03f333725
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/23557/noaa_23557_DS1.pdf
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Estimation and removal of forecast cycle stray

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