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The economics of uncertainty : a survey of the literature on uncertainty with particular reference to the fishery
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The economics of uncertainty : a survey of the literature on uncertainty with particular reference to the fishery
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    The literature on the economics of uncertainty covers a diverse range of topics. The scope of this review is restricted to a representative number of papers in those areas of the literature that have application to the problems of uncertainty in the fishery. The review therefore represents selected coverage of the literature rather than an exhaustive bibliography. Papers are selected whose theoretical focus helps clarify and define particular problems of uncertainty that affect the fishery. The literature reviewed covers nine general subject areas. As commonly used measures of levels of uncertainty, probabilities and their interpretation are discussed in reference to their applicability to fisheries problems. The concept of probability helps clarify the role of information as a resolver of uncertainty. The use of information in individual and group decision making is examined along with the various risk indicators used by analysts to evaluate decision making. Uncertainty affects the efficiency of resource allocation over time. Concepts of equilibrium are also modified under conditions of uncertainty, requiring the specification of explicit disequilibrium models in some circumstances. As a response to disequilibrium, economic adaptation includes the processes of learning, expectation formation, search, strategy development, and selection. The final topic covered by the review is the impact of uncertainty on the strength of property rights, with particular emphasis on problems in the management of open access fisheries.
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