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Interannual variability of autumn to spring seasonal precipitation in eastern China
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    Climate Dynamics, 45(1-2), 253-271.
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Interannual variability of autumn to spring seasonal precipitation in eastern China
  • Description:
    The interannual variability of seasonal precipitation in eastern China from fall to following spring is examined for the period of 1951-2004 based on observations at 106 stations. The temporal variability of seasonal mean values is decomposed into intraseasonal (fast) and slow (potentially predictable) components. EOF analysis is then applied to both the fast and predictable components. We find that (1) the most predictable signal migrates in a north-south direction along with the annual cycle of the monsoon in east China, while spatial patterns of the leading fast modes does not change much; (2) the predictable signal of precipitation in eastern China is associated with anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns having more zonally symmetric structures while the fast time-varying precipitation components are accompanied by wavy anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns; (3) the most predictable signal has an apparent 1-season lagged correlation with the interannual variation of sea surface temperature associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation; (4) The fast rainfall component is largely attributed to the intraseasonal variabilities of the Siberian High over the Eurasian continent and the subtropical high associated with the Western-Pacific-Oscillation-like variabilities over the North Pacific; and (5) The ENSO signal in the fall seasonal precipitation persisted throughout the entire 54-year period while the signal in winter intensified significantly after the mid-1970s. This is attributed to the weaker/stronger intensification of ENSO anomalies in the tropical Pacific during the fall/winter.

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