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Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System
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2018
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 33(5), 1225-1250.
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Journal Title:Weather and Forecasting
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Personal Author:Skinner, Patrick S. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; Reinhart, Anthony E. ; Choate, Jessica J. ; ... More +Skinner, Patrick S. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; Reinhart, Anthony E. ; Choate, Jessica J. ; Jones, Thomas A. ; Creager, Gerald J. ; Dowell, David C. ; Alexander, Curtis R. ; Ladwig, Therese T. ; Wicker, Louis J. ; Heinselman, Pamela L. ; Minnis, Patrick ; Palikonda, Rabindra Less -
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NOAA Program & Office:OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; ... More +OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
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Description:An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-min updraft helicity swaths are matched to corresponding reflectivity and rotation track objects in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system data on space and time scales typical of a National Weather Service warning. Object matching allows contingency-table-based verification statistics to be used to establish baseline performance metrics for NEWS-e thunderstorm and mesocyclone forecasts. NEWS-e critical success index (CSI) scores of reflectivity (updraft helicity) forecasts decrease from approximately 0.7 (0.4) to 0.4 (0.2) over 3 h of forecast time. CSI scores decrease through the forecast period, indicating that errors do not saturate during the 3-h forecast. Lower verification scores for rotation track forecasts are primarily a result of a high-frequency bias. Comparison of different system configurations used in 2016 and 2017 shows an increase in skill for 2017 reflectivity forecasts, attributable mainly to improvements in the forecast initial conditions. A small decrease in skill in 2017 rotation track forecasts is likely a result of sample differences between 2016 and 2017. Although large case-to-case variation is present, evidence is found that NEWS-e forecast skill improves with increasing object size and intensity.
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Source:Weather and Forecasting, 33(5), 1225-1250.
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