Details:

Journal Title:
Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:
Skinner, Patrick S. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; Reinhart, Anthony E. ; Choate, Jessica J. ; ... More +
Skinner, Patrick S. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; Reinhart, Anthony E. ; Choate, Jessica J. ; Jones, Thomas A. ; Creager, Gerald J. ; Dowell, David C. ; Alexander, Curtis R. ; Ladwig, Therese T. ; Wicker, Louis J. ; Heinselman, Pamela L. ; Minnis, Patrick ; Palikonda, Rabindra Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; ... More +
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
Description:
An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-min updraft helicity swaths are matched to corresponding reflectivity and rotation track objects in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system data on space and time scales typical of a National Weather Service warning. Object matching allows contingency-table-based verification statistics to be used to establish baseline performance metrics for NEWS-e thunderstorm and mesocyclone forecasts. NEWS-e critical success index (CSI) scores of reflectivity (updraft helicity) forecasts decrease from approximately 0.7 (0.4) to 0.4 (0.2) over 3 h of forecast time. CSI scores decrease through the forecast period, indicating that errors do not saturate during the 3-h forecast. Lower verification scores for rotation track forecasts are primarily a result of a high-frequency bias. Comparison of different system configurations used in 2016 and 2017 shows an increase in skill for 2017 reflectivity forecasts, attributable mainly to improvements in the forecast initial conditions. A small decrease in skill in 2017 rotation track forecasts is likely a result of sample differences between 2016 and 2017. Although large case-to-case variation is present, evidence is found that NEWS-e forecast skill improves with increasing object size and intensity.
Source:
Weather and Forecasting, 33(5), 1225-1250.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0020.1
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
Grant no. NA16OAR4320115 ; Grant no. NA11OAR4320072
Grant no. NA16OAR4320115 ; Grant no. NA11OAR4320072 Less -
Rights Information:
Other
Compliance:
Submitted
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:d6f920a9c5a6cf8fdadb220c141ed40481427b15fd038e1f5d2321ba069c0160
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21854/noaa_21854_DS1.pdf
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