Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System

Skinner, Patrick S.; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Knopfmeier, Kent H.; Reinhart, Anthony E.; Choate, Jessica J.; Jones, Thomas A.; Creager, Gerald J.; Dowell, David C.; Alexander, Curtis R.; Ladwig, Therese T.; Wicker, Louis J.; Heinselman, Pamela L.; Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra

doi:10.1175/waf-d-18-0020.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System

2018
By Skinner, Patrick S. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; ...
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 33(5), 1225-1250.

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Skinner, Patrick S. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; Reinhart, Anthony E. ; Choate, Jessica J. ; ... More +

Skinner, Patrick S. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; Reinhart, Anthony E. ; Choate, Jessica J. ; Jones, Thomas A. ; Creager, Gerald J. ; Dowell, David C. ; Alexander, Curtis R. ; Ladwig, Therese T. ; Wicker, Louis J. ; Heinselman, Pamela L. ; Minnis, Patrick ; Palikonda, Rabindra Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; ... More +

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
Description:

An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-min updraft helicity swaths are matched to corresponding reflectivity and rotation track objects in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system data on space and time scales typical of a National Weather Service warning. Object matching allows contingency-table-based verification statistics to be used to establish baseline performance metrics for NEWS-e thunderstorm and mesocyclone forecasts. NEWS-e critical success index (CSI) scores of reflectivity (updraft helicity) forecasts decrease from approximately 0.7 (0.4) to 0.4 (0.2) over 3 h of forecast time. CSI scores decrease through the forecast period, indicating that errors do not saturate during the 3-h forecast. Lower verification scores for rotation track forecasts are primarily a result of a high-frequency bias. Comparison of different system configurations used in 2016 and 2017 shows an increase in skill for 2017 reflectivity forecasts, attributable mainly to improvements in the forecast initial conditions. A small decrease in skill in 2017 rotation track forecasts is likely a result of sample differences between 2016 and 2017. Although large case-to-case variation is present, evidence is found that NEWS-e forecast skill improves with increasing object size and intensity.
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 33(5), 1225-1250.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0020.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4320115 ; Grant no. NA11OAR4320072

Grant no. NA16OAR4320115 ; Grant no. NA11OAR4320072 Less -
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:d6f920a9c5a6cf8fdadb220c141ed40481427b15fd038e1f5d2321ba069c0160
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21854/noaa_21854_DS1.pdf
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Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System

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