Advancing from Convection-Allowing NWP to Warn-on-Forecast: Evidence of Progress

Lawson, John R.; Kain, John S.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Dowell, David C.; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Knopfmeier, Kent H.; Jones, Thomas A.

doi:10.1175/waf-d-17-0145.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Advancing from Convection-Allowing NWP to Warn-on-Forecast: Evidence of Progress

2018
By Lawson, John R. ; Kain, John S. ; Yussouf, Nusrat ; ...
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 33(2), 599-607.

[PDF-1018.55 KB]

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Lawson, John R. ; Kain, John S. ; Yussouf, Nusrat ; Dowell, David C. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; ... More +

Lawson, John R. ; Kain, John S. ; Yussouf, Nusrat ; Dowell, David C. ; Wheatley, Dustan M. ; Knopfmeier, Kent H. ; Jones, Thomas A. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; ... More +

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) Less -
Description:

The Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) program, driven by advanced data assimilation and ensemble design of numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, seeks to advance 0-3-h NWP to aid National Weather Service warnings for thunderstorm-induced hazards. An early prototype of the WoF prediction system is the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Experimental WoF System for ensembles (NEWSe), which comprises 36 ensemble members with varied initial conditions and parameterization suites. In the present study, real-time 3-h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) during spring 2016 from NEWSe members are compared against those from two real-time deterministic systems: the operational High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, version 1) and an upgraded, experimental configuration of the HRRR. All three model systems were run at 3-km horizontal grid spacing and differ in initialization, particularly in the radar data assimilation methods. It is the impact of this difference that is evaluated herein using both traditional and scale-aware verification schemes. NEWSe, evaluated deterministically for each member, shows marked improvement over the two HRRR versions for 0-3-h QPFs, especially at higher thresholds and smaller spatial scales. This improvement diminishes with forecast lead time. The experimental HRRR model, which became operational as HRRR version 2 in August 2016, also provides added skill over HRRR version 1.
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 33(2), 599-607.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-17-0145.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA11OAR4320072
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:41fbbd461fff099aeafe2e34d5a6330f347ba1ec220c45faf7ecc645ea6ae41e
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21696/noaa_21696_DS1.pdf
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Advancing from Convection-Allowing NWP to Warn-on-Forecast: Evidence of Progress

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