Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa

Tozier de la Poterie, Arielle S.; Jjemba, Wasswa Eddie; Singh, Roop; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Costella, Cecilia V.; Arrighi, Julie

doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.025

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Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa

2018
By Tozier de la Poterie, Arielle S. ; Jjemba, Wasswa Eddie ; Singh, Roop ; ...
Source: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 81-94.

[PDF-319.37 KB]

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Journal Title:

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Personal Author:

Tozier de la Poterie, Arielle S. ; Jjemba, Wasswa Eddie ; Singh, Roop ; Coughlan de Perez, Erin ; Costella, Cecilia V. ; ... More +

Tozier de la Poterie, Arielle S. ; Jjemba, Wasswa Eddie ; Singh, Roop ; Coughlan de Perez, Erin ; Costella, Cecilia V. ; Arrighi, Julie Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
Description:

Humanitarian organizations are increasingly interested in using seasonal forecasts to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of potential disasters before they begin. El Niño teleconnections increase the predictability of flooding and drought events in Southern and Eastern Africa, providing humanitarian stakeholders with advanced warning of potential weather events. This study draws on evidence from key-informant interviews with humanitarian organizations and government officials in five African countries (Zambia, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Malawi) to better understand how national, regional, and international humanitarian organizations respond to climate and weather warnings. We find that organizations looked to data from past El Niño events to develop contingency plans and gradually implement response activities but that few organizations attempt to monitor and evaluate their activities or use forecasts to help people capture additional benefits. Although they would like greater specificity and higher forecast skill, humanitarians largely trust international forecasts. Access to intermediaries, contextualized data, and flexible funding, and well-established social protection mechanisms facilitate action. Based on these results we recommend that future efforts focus on developing capacities and complementary, localized, information that will help actors translate the forecasts into action. Future research is also needed to understand whether action leads to desired impacts.
Source:

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 81-94.
DOI:

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.025
Document Type:

Journal Article
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CC BY-NC-ND
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:5f9775ef0f062af3ece34815af050163a5485103ae5f317610b7245dd940c179
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21118/noaa_21118_DS1.pdf
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Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa

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