Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

Anderson, Eric; Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi; Kessler, James; Lang, Gregory; Chu, Philip; Kelley, John; Chen, Yi; Wang, Jia

doi:10.3390/jmse6040123

i

Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

2018
By Anderson, Eric ; Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi ; Kessler, James ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Personal Author:

Anderson, Eric ; Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi ; Kessler, James ; Lang, Gregory ; Chu, Philip ; Kelley, John ; Chen, Yi ; Wang, Jia
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GLERL (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) ; OCS (Office of Coast Survey) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; CIGLR (Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research)
Description:

Ice Cover in the Great Lakes has significant impacts on regional weather, economy, lake ecology, and human safety. However, forecast guidance for the lakes is largely focused on the ice-free season and associated state variables (currents, water temperatures, etc.) A coupled lake-ice model is proposed with potential to provide valuable information to stakeholders and society at large about the current and near-future state of Great Lakes Ice. The model is run for three of the five Great Lakes for prior years and the modeled ice cover is compared to observations via several skill metrics. Model hindcasts of ice conditions reveal reasonable simulation of year-to-year variability of ice extent, ice season duration, and spatial distribution, though some years appear to be prone to higher error. This modeling framework will serve as the basis for NOAA's next-generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS); a set of 3-D lake circulation forecast modeling systems which provides forecast guidance out to 120 h.
Source:

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 6(4), 123.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040123
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA12OAR4320071
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:c561fa29c640424c0a34f3a7f306f79fba2f3332ce9067249098b63a84789165f4fe2cf7852808db55ca76286e4887834703b7c57936849101662f8d9e6bd08f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/20821/noaa_20821_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.41 MB ]

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