Details:

Journal Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:
Yin, Jianjun ; Overpeck, Jonathan ; Peyser, Cheryl ; Stouffer, Ronald
Yin, Jianjun ; Overpeck, Jonathan ; Peyser, Cheryl ; Stouffer, Ronald Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CICSP (Cooperative Institute for Climate Science)
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CICSP (Cooperative Institute for Climate Science) Less -
Description:
A 0.24 degrees C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Nino that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2), 1069-1078.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076500
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
Grant no. NA13OAR4310128 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4320106
Grant no. NA13OAR4310128 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4320106 Less -
Rights Information:
CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:
Submitted
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:1bb554afabbb23990696906ebb850f89d6fdcf1023f8a3d14044189bd82a732b
File Type:

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