US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

Lee, Sang-Ki; Wittenberg, Andrew T; Enfield, David B; Weaver, Scott J; Wang, Chunzai; Atlas, Robert

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008

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US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

2016
By Lee, Sang-Ki ; Wittenberg, Andrew T ; Enfield, David B ; ...
Source: Environmental Research Letters, 11(4), 044008.

[PDF-3.86 MB]

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Journal Title:

Environmental Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lee, Sang-Ki ; Wittenberg, Andrew T ; Enfield, David B ; Weaver, Scott J ; Wang, Chunzai ; ... More +

Lee, Sang-Ki ; Wittenberg, Andrew T ; Enfield, David B ; Weaver, Scott J ; Wang, Chunzai ; Atlas, Robert Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) Less -
Description:

Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. Weshow that the four dominant springtime El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Nino and resurgent versus transitioning La Nina) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.
Source:

Environmental Research Letters, 11(4), 044008.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA12OAR4310083 ; Grant no. N8R1MP1P00

Grant no. NA12OAR4310083 ; Grant no. N8R1MP1P00 Less -
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CC BY
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urn:sha256:7a359bea5e470cd85d9b6f990d293a1893bfd25510dc71128d5166b0b53b9ca8
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/20584/noaa_20584_DS1.pdf
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US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

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