| US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability - :20584 | Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
Stacks Logo
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.
 
 
Help
Clear All Simple Search
Advanced Search
US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability
  • Published Date:
    2016
  • Source:
    Environmental Research Letters, 11(4), 044008.
Filetype[PDF-3.86 MB]


Details:
  • Description:
    Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. Weshow that the four dominant springtime El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Nino and resurgent versus transitioning La Nina) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.

  • Document Type:
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files
No Related Documents.
You May Also Like: