Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
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Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
  • Published Date:

    2018

  • Source:
    Journal of Climate, 31(22), 9351-9366.
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Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
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  • Description:
    A composite-based statistical model utilizing Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is developed to predict East Asian wintertime surface air temperature for lead times out to 6 weeks. The level of prediction is determined by using the Heidke skill score. The prediction skill of the statistical model is compared with that of hindcast simulations by a climate model, Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5. When employed individually, three teleconnections (i.e., the east Atlantic/western Russian, Scandinavian, and polar/Eurasian teleconnection patterns) are found to provide skillful predictions for lead times beyond 4-5 weeks. When information from the teleconnections and the long-term linear trend are combined, the statistical model outperforms the climate model for lead times beyond 3 weeks, especially during those times when the teleconnections are in their active phases.
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