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Updated Estimates of the Propability of Striking a Western North Pacific Gray Whale During the Proposed Makah Hunt
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2018
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Description:Observations of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) from the western North Pacific (WNP) migrating to areas off the coast of North America (Alaska to Mexico) raised concerns that this small population could be encountered during a hunt of eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales proposed by the Makah Indian Tribe in northern Washington, USA. In 2013, an analysis was conducted to estimate the probability of striking (i.e. killing or seriously injuring) a WNP whale under the Makah Tribe’s hunt proposal (Moore and Weller 2013). NOAA Fisheries is considering a draft proposal that would govern ENP gray whale hunts by the Makah for up to 10 years. Under the draft proposal, hunting seasons would alternate between winter-spring hunts in even-numbered years and summer hunts during odd-numbered years. It is presumed that only in even-numbered years (thus, for 5 of the 10 years) would WNP whales potentially be encountered during the hunt. In each of these years, the draft proposal would allow for up to 3 gray whales to be struck. Based on this alternative hunting scheme and the availability of updated gray whale data, this report reestimates the probability of striking a WNP whale reported earlier (Moore and Weller 2013). One of the models from the 2013 analysis (Model 2A) was used to generate new estimates. We estimate that for an individual strike on a gray whale, the expected probability of it being a WNP whale is 0.004 (95% CRI: 0.002 – 0.007). For a single year’s hunt (3 strikes), the expected probability of striking ≥1 WNP whale would be 0.012 (0.006 – 0.019). Across the 10-year hunt period (15 strikes), the probability of striking ≥1 WNP whale would be 0.058 (0.030 – 0.093)
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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