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San Francisco Bay Integrated Flood Forecasting Project summary report
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2018
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[PDF-1.89 MB]
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Alternative Title:San Francisco Bay Integrated Flood Forecasting Project
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Description:San Francisco Bay is a highly urbanized estuary and the surrounding communities are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland rivers and creeks that drain to the Bay. An integrated forecast model is being developed for predicting flooding in Bay area tributaries and estuaries. This project involves state-of-the-art coupling of a NWS Distributed Hydrologic Model (DHM) with the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). Results presented here are for a prototype focused on the interaction of the Napa River watershed and the San Pablo Bay. Discharges from the DHM are meteorologically driven and dynamic, allowing for identification of flash flood threats for model grids interior to the Bay tributaries. The DHM tributary flows are input to the CoSMoS model which in turn simulates flooding extent in the receiving estuary. We utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model based on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, seasonal water level anomalies, surge and in-Bay generated wind waves derived from the wind and pressure fields of a NWS forecast model. This report focuses on assessment of the various flood forecast information products generated by the integrated flood forecast modeling system. The tributary DHM generates forecast information for each grid that are portrayed as discharge, flow hydrographs (peak flow, time-to-peak, duration of high flow), soil moisture, and flood recurrence level. The CoSMoS portrays flood inundation and timing, and duration. Both models can help identify flood impact features such as road-stream crossings, and other critical facilities. A workshop was held with state, federal and local agency staff involved with flood forecasting and warning, and flood mitigation. As part of the workshop, we asked participants to review Hydro-CoSMoS outputs and rate how useful these products would be for theirs jobs. Results of these reviews are presented, and discussion is directed to how users' assessments could influence design of the real-time operational system to be implemented.
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Content Notes:Jungho Kim [and 8 others].
"April 2018."
Includes bibliographical references (pages 29-30).
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Rights Information:CC0 Public Domain
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Compliance:Library
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