Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record

Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Wehner, M. F.; Sun, L.

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.001

[PDF-1.62 MB]

Details:

DOI:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.001

Personal Authors:

Easterling, D. R. ; Kunkel, K. E. ; Wehner, M. F. ; Sun, L. ;

Description:

We present an overview of practices and challenges related to the detection and attribution of observed changes in climate extremes. Detection is the identification of a statistically significant change in the extreme values of a climate variable over some period of time. Issues in detection discussed include data quality, coverage, and completeness. Attribution takes that detection of a change and uses climate model simulations to evaluate whether a cause can be assigned to that change. Additionally, we discuss a newer field of attribution, event attribution, where individual extreme events are analyzed for the express purpose of assigning some measure of whether that event was directly influenced by anthropogenic forcing of the climate system.

Document Type:

Journal Article

Collection(s):

National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service (NESDIS)

Main Document Checksum:

[+]

Supporting Files:

No Additional Files

You May Also Like:

Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I

Personal Author:

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Fahey, David W.; Hibbard, Kathy A.;

Corporate Author:

U.S. Global Change Research Program. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. National Aeronuatics and Space Administration.

Published:

2017

Series:

U.S. National Climate Assessment

File Type:

[PDF - 27.81 MB]
Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics

Personal Author:

Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; Penland, C.;

Published:

2015

Source:

Journal of Climate, 28(23), 9166-9187.

Description:

Given the reality of anthropogenic global warming, it is tempting to seek an anthropogenic component in any recent change in the statistics of extreme weather. This paper cautions that such efforts may, however, lead to wrong conclusions if the disti...

File Type:

[PDF - 10.05 MB]
Climate prediction S&T digest : NWS science & technology infusion climate bulletin supplement

Corporate Author:

United States, National Weather Service., Office of Science and Technology Integration,. Climate Prediction Center (U.S.).

Conference Author:

Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop 2015 : Denver, Colo.),

Published:

2016

Description:

"NOAA's 40th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop was held in Denver, Colorado on 26-29 October 2015. The workshop was hosted by the Physical Sciences Division (PSD) of NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) and co-sponsored by the Cl...

File Type:

[PDF - 25.60 MB]
Regional climate processes and projections for North America: CMIP3/CMIP5 differences, attribution and outstanding issues

Personal Author:

Sheffield, Justin; Barrett, Andrew; Barrie, Daniel Bennett;

Corporate Author:

Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.)

Published:

2014

Series:

NOAA technical report OAR CPO ; 2

Description:

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) provides an unprecedented set of climate model data from coordinated experiments that can be used to address a variety of questions related to climate change and climate variability. The CMIP...

File Type:

[PDF - 17.31 MB]
Climate prediction S&T digest : NWS science & technology infusion climate bulletin supplement

Corporate Author:

United States, National Weather Service., Office of Science and Technology,. Climate Prediction Center (U.S.).

Conference Author:

Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop 2011 : Fort Worth, Tex.),

Published:

2011

Description:

"The 36th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop was held in Fort Worth, Texas, on 3-6 October 2011. The workshop was hosted by the National Weather Service (NWS) Southern Region Headquarters and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and cos...

File Type:

[PDF - 27.52 MB]