FEELING THE PULSE OF THE STRATOSPHERE An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold-Air Outbreaks I Month in Advance
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields



Publication Date Range:


Document Data


Document Type:






Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page


FEELING THE PULSE OF THE STRATOSPHERE An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold-Air Outbreaks I Month in Advance

Filetype[PDF-5.12 MB]

Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed


  • Journal Title:
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    Extreme weather events such as cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) pose great threats to human life and the socioeconomic well-being of modern society. In the past, our capability to predict their occurrences has been constrained by the 2-week predictability limit for weather. We demonstrate here for the first time that a rapid increase of air mass transported into the polar stratosphere, referred to as the pulse of the stratosphere (PULSE), can often be predicted with a useful degree of skill 4-6 weeks in advance by operational forecast models. We further show that the probability of the occurrence of continental-scale CAOs in midlatitudes increases substantially above normal conditions within a short time period from 1 week before to 1-2 weeks after the peak day of a PULSE event. In particular, we reveal that the three massive CAOs over North America in January and February of 2014 were preceded by three episodes of extreme mass transport into the polar stratosphere with peak intensities reaching a trillion tons per day, twice that on an average winter day. Therefore, our capability to predict the PULSEs with operational forecast models, in conjunction with its linkage to continental-scale CAOs, opens up a new opportunity for 30-day forecasts of continental scale CAOs, such as those occurring over North America during the 2013/14 winter. A real-time forecast experiment inaugurated in the winter of 2014/15 has given support to the idea that it is feasible to forecast CAOs 1 month in advance.
  • Source:
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), 1475-+.
  • Document Type:
  • Rights Information:
  • Compliance:
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files

More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.26