Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF Model: Model Upgrades and Evaluation of Real-Time Performance in 2013

Tallapragada, Vijay; Kieu, Chanh; Trahan, Samuel; Liu, Qingfu; Wang, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhan; Tong, Mingjing; Zhang, Banglin; Zhu, Lin; Strahl, Brian

doi:10.1175/waf-d-14-00139.1

i

Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF Model: Model Upgrades and Evaluation of Real-Time Performance in 2013

2016
By Tallapragada, Vijay ; Kieu, Chanh ; Trahan, Samuel ; ...

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Tallapragada, Vijay ; Kieu, Chanh ; Trahan, Samuel ; Liu, Qingfu ; Wang, Weiguo ; Zhang, Zhan ; Tong, Mingjing ; Zhang, Banglin ; Zhu, Lin ; Strahl, Brian
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service)
Description:

This study presents evaluation of real-time performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system upgraded and implemented in 2013 in the western North Pacific basin (WPAC). Retrospective experiments with the 2013 version of the HWRF Model upgrades for 2012 WPAC tropical cyclones (TCs) show significant forecast improvement compared to the real-time forecasts from the 2012 version of HWRF. Despite a larger number of strong storms in the WPAC during 2013, real-time forecasts from the 2013 HWRF (H213) showed an overall reduction in intensity forecast errors, mostly at the 4-5-day lead times. Verification of the H213's skill against the climate persistence forecasts shows that although part of such improvements in 2013 is related to the different seasonal characteristics between the years 2012 and 2013, the new model upgrades implemented in 2013 could provide some further improvement that the 2012 version of HWRF could not achieve. Further examination of rapid intensification (RI) events demonstrates noticeable skill of H213 with the probability of detection (POD) index of 0.22 in 2013 compared to 0.09 in 2012, suggesting that H213 starts to show skill in predicting RI events in the WPAC.
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 877-894.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-14-00139.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
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Other
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Library
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urn:sha256:c0d7dbf5ad80b6dd1254c2d8f3a7073cd757b0c8079a07830a7e5633c0825e0d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/15279/noaa_15279_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 2.74 MB ]

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