Paving the Way for the Year of Polar Prediction
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Paving the Way for the Year of Polar Prediction
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  • Source:
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), ES85-ES88.
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  • Description:
    Polar prediction has never been as high on the international weather and climate research agenda as today. A growing human interest in the polar regions fueled by climate change and its polar amplification, and the realization that significant knowledge gaps in terms of observational coverage and process understanding exist, have stimulated the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to address the lagging forecasting capabilities at the poles. Major efforts to increase polar environmental prediction capabilities on hourly-to-seasonal [Polar Prediction Project (PPP)] and seasonal-to-centennial [Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI)] time scales have been initiated. A key element of these activities is the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), a period of intensive observing, modeling, prediction, verification, user engagement, and education activities from mid-2017 to mid-2019. To pave the way for a successful Year of Polar Prediction, a major planning event—the YOPP Summit—was held. The meeting brought together 120 participants from 20 countries including scientists, stakeholders, and representatives from operational weather and climate prediction centers, international bodies, and funding agencies. Up to 750 viewers at a time followed the plenary talks and discussions online, highlighting the strong interest in YOPP. The summit started with background presentations that helped to set the scene. After a number of keynote presentations, all interested parties had the opportunity to present their expectations of, contributions to, and recommendations for YOPP. Following extensive discussions in breakout groups, recommendations were presented and discussed during a final plenary session. Several YOPP-related outcomes and issues were elaborated during the Sixth PPP Steering Group Meeting (PPP-SG6) held directly after the summit. Where appropriate, this report takes into account the decisions made at PPP-SG6.
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