Advances in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Details

• Journal Title:
  Marine Technology Society Journal
• Personal Author:
  Atlas, Robert ; Tallapragada, Vijay ; Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
• Description:
  NOAA established the 10-year Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to accelerate the improvement of forecasts and warnings of tropical cyclones and to enhance mitigation and preparedness by increased confidence in those forecasts. Specific goals incluse reducing track and intensity errors by 20% in 5 years and 50% in 10 years and extending the useful range of hurricane forecasts to 7 days. Under HFIP, there have been significant improvements to NOAA's operational hurricane prediction model resulting in increased accuracy in the numerical guidance for tropical cyclone intensity predictions. This paper documents many of the improvements that have been accompolished over the last 5 years, as well as some future research directions that are being pursued.
• Source:
  Marine Technology Society Journal, 49(6), 149-160.
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.4031/MTSJ.49.6.2
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  CC BY-NC-ND
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:b6586c4e1ba765e83550d51a8657e7555fdec432aec20293fe0f8ef0230c5be8
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/15129/noaa_15129_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.89 MB ]