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Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts
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1980
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[PDF-965.91 KB]
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Description:Previous studies have suggested that the general public misinterprets probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts, leading some meteorologists to argue that probabilities should not be included in public weather forecasts. Upon closer examination, however, these.studies prove to be ambiguous with regard to the nature of the misunderstanding. Is the public confused about the meaning of the probabilities or about the definition of the event to which the probabilities refer? If event misinterpretation is the source of the confusion, then elimination of the probabilities would not reduce the level of misunderstanding.
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Content Notes:Allan H. Murphy, Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff, Robert L. Winkler.
Includes bibliographical references (page 10).
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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Compliance:Library
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