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LFM 24-hour prediction of eastern Pacific cyclones refined by satellite images
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1979
[PDF-3.94 MB]
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Description:In looking at Limited Fine Mesh (LFM) forecasts of surface cyclone central pressure, it was found that on eleven days between April and November 1977, observed surface cyclone central pressure was 10 mb or more lower than anticipated by the LFM model. These eleven cases were examined in detaiI. A common property found on GOES satellite imagery at the time of undetected cyclone deepening in these eleven cases was the formation of a distinct, sharp, cloud-free slot region on the back side of the leaf-shaped clouds of the baroclinic zone. This feature was generally clearly detectable on infrared images. For the period of data and subsequently, it was seen that as frequently as two or three times a month the LFM failed to predict significant cyclone development in the eastern Pacific. Satellite images provided the experienced meteorologist with evidence the cyclones would deepen when this development was not predicted by the LFM.
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Content Notes:John R. Zimmerman and Charles P. Ruscha, Jr.
Includes bibliographical references (page 34).
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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Compliance:Library
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