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An operational evaluation of 500-mb type stratified regression equations
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  • Description:
    A test of the operational utility of the 500-mb type stratified regression equations developed by Paegle and Kierulff [I] is presented. It is found that in development of the equations, there were three major data discrepancies. These discrepancies, which qualitatively do not affect Paegle's and Kierulff's results or detract from their conclusions, do have a bearing on the operational usabiIity of he equations-they are: (I) the threshold value of precipitation actually used was .02 inches rather than .01 inches, (2) the precipitation data valid period was 12 hours earlier than had been thought, and (3) the 700-mb and 500-mb dew-point depression fields used in screening were erroneous. A two-year test on independent data (December 68 -February 69, December 69-February 70) is presented which indicates the regression equations improve on climatology by about 7%. The results are found not to compare favorably with NMC and WSFO PoP verifications for the winter of 69-70. It is concluded that the Paegle and Kierulff [I] type stratified regression equations are not suitable for operational use.
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