Objective Forecast of Precipitation over the Western Region of the United States

Paegle, Julia N.; Kierulff, Lawrence P.

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Objective Forecast of Precipitation over the Western Region of the United States

1973
By Paegle, Julia N. ; Kierulff, Lawrence P.
Series: Western Region technical memorandum ; no. 89

[PDF-4.25 MB]

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Details:

Personal Author:

Paegle, Julia N. ; Kierulff, Lawrence P.

Paegle, Julia N. ; Kierulff, Lawrence P. Less -
Corporate Authors:

United States, National Weather Service., Western Region,
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; WR (Western Region)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; WR (Western Region) Less -
Description:

The case classification by 500-mb flow types described in the first chapter represents an objective synthesis of synoptic information which has subjectively and successfully been used by experienced forecasters in predicting the weather. This information is presented in the form of a climatology of 500-mb winter flow patterns. It consists of the frequency of occurrences of seven tharacteristic 500-mb height configurations and associated patterns of vorticity, vertical velocity, higher and lower pressure levels, dew-point depressions, frequency of precipitation, etc. This stratification of probabiIity of precipitation represents a refinement in the forecast of precipitation probabilities over simple· climatology. The type classification is used as a stratification criterion in the second chapter to obtain predictive equations for precipitation probability. Different predictive variables are stressed within the different types. Based on the reduction of variance and the Brier P-score, it appears that the stratification leads to signigicant improvement in the regression equations. In effect, the stratification includes a pattern comparison which could never be included infinite regression equations. The results are promising and the method can presently be applied in operational forecasting at very minimal computer cost.
Content Notes:

Julia N. Paegle and Lawrence P. Kierulff.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 17-18).
Keywords:

[+]

Precipitation forecasting
Series:

Western Region technical memorandum ; no. 89 ; NOAA technical memorandum NWS WR ; 89

Western Region technical memorandum ; no. 89 ; NOAA technical memorandum NWS WR ; 89 Less -
Document Type:

Technical Memorandum
Place as Subject:

West (U.S.)
Rights Information:

Public Domain
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:dcb4212a88f4a3a88012e4a6b2fc9cab225c08b62ca94cf3395b0a6f387cf585
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/14086/noaa_14086_DS1.pdf
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Objective Forecast of Precipitation over the Western Region of the United States

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