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The MAN/MOS Program / Alexander E. MacDonald
Filetype[PDF-1.22 MB]

  • Description:
    The MAN/MOS Program was instituted in late 1975 to improve forecasting by making more effective use of MOS and to determine if WSFOs could significantly improve on MOS guidance. A complete description of the methods and result of the program through the end of 1976 is given. Methods used included (1) encouraging more meteorological reasoning, (2) more careful use of MOS, (3) fostering competition among WSFOs for improvements over MOS, and (4) rapid feedback techniques. Two seasons of PoP verifications are presented which show substantial improvements over MOS for Western Region WSFOs, and increased skiII in comparison with previous years. A ceiling and visibility verification is presented which shows WSFOs producing a much more useful product than MOS. lt is concIuded that the methods of the program were successful in improving forecasting, and that WSFOs can stiII make substantial improvements on currently available statistical forecasts.
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