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Determination of flood forecast effectiveness by the use of mean forecast lead time
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    A method of evaluating flood forecasts is presented, The method expresses the value, to the user, of a series of forecasts that relate to a single flood event. The timeliness of the forecasts and their accuracy are combined into a single numerical score, expressed in units of time , and termed "mean forecast lead time," The score reflects the manner in which a particular combination of timeliness and accuracy affects the user. The system purports to produce a measure of forecast effectiveness that is physically meaningful and that is more closely related to economic benefit than are error statistics based on the difference between forecast and observed hydrographs. The relationships between the evaluation system and various forecasting problems and practices are discussed.
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