Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon
Description:This article presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979 to 2012. A high-quality daily precipitation data set covering 2076 observational stations in China is analysed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions and the regime shift detection method, three sub-periods of 1979–1992 (period I), 1993–1999 (period II) and 2000–2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies to some extent during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport and contributes to the precipitation anomalies. In addition, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean through its effects on convective activity over the west Pacific that induces the cyclonic or anticyclonic anomaly over the South China and northwest Pacific.
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