| Prediction of a break in monsoon conditions over India using a nested grid hemispheric model - :12179 | National Weather Service (NWS)
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Prediction of a break in monsoon conditions over India using a nested grid hemispheric model
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  • Description:
    A two-way interacting nested-grid hemispheric model is used to study the interaction between a mid-latitude wave in westerlies and monsoonal circulation over India and to investigate the development of Break in Monsoon conditions. The horizontal coordinates are those of a polar stereographic projection. The vertical coordinate is a and the vertical layer structure is similar to the energy conserving structure derived by Arakawa. 'Elliassen' horizontal staggered grid and Lax-Wendroff time-difference schemes are used. This model is being developed and presently incorporates some physical processes including convective and nonconvective release of latent heat, surface friction and turbulent diffusion. The initial state is derived from the NMC Global Hough Analysis (1970) on 00 GMT 22 July 1975. Truncation errors in the sigma coordinate expression for the horizontal pressure force are large over the steep slopes. However, a 48-hr prediction from the dry version of the model (release of latent heat not included) shows that the model forecasts reasonably well the eastward movement of a midlatitude wave across northern India and the Himalayas and the development of an anticyclonic flow over central India: features known to occur with the development of break in monsoon conditions. A 24-hr prediction with the inclusion of convective and nonconvective release of latent heat predicts major areas of precipitation over northern India located close to the areas of large observed precipitation.

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