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How to pick a new forecast model : the selection of the 7L PE for NMC operations
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1978
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[PDF-7.57 MB]
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Alternative Title:The selection of the 7L PE for NMC operations
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Description:"During the better part of 1977 the Development Division of the National Meteorological Center undertook a series of intercomparison tests of three hemispheric numerical weather prediction models. The aim was to select one as a replacement for the then operational 6-layer primitive equation model (6LPE) (Shuman and Hovermale, 1968) in use, with modifications, since June of 1966. What follows is short descriptions of the three contending models, a description of the nature of the tests, an account of their execution, and the results. In addition to the obvious purpose of documenting the reasons for a change in NMC's operational models, this essay may serve also as an example of the nature and dimensions of such tests. Tests like this one, whether they be forecast model, analysis system, data system, or operational configuration intercomparisons are of considerable magnitude and are not to be undertaken for light and transient reasons. What follows may give some indication of the amount of effort required to answer the deceptively simple question: "Is this model better than that one?!" It may also serve as a guide of how to answer similar questions in the future"--Introduction.
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Content Notes:John D. Stackpole, Armand Desmarais, John Hovermale, Robert van Haaren, Norman Phillips, Ken Campana, Robert Hopkins, and Staff Members, NMC.
"October 1978."
"This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members."
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Includes bibliographical references (page 42).
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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Compliance:Library
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