Performance test of the Movable-Area Fine-Mesh model in the western Pacific
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Performance test of the Movable-Area Fine-Mesh model in the western Pacific

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    During the last six years at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), a project to develop a numerical model capable of forecasting hurricane (typhoon) movements has been underway. This project has been very successful and has resulted in the development and operational implementation of a primitive-equation, analysis-forecast system, the Movable- Area Fine-Mesh Model (MFM), capable of producing forecasts of either hurricane tracks or large-scale heavy precipitation. A performance test using the MFM was conducted on selected storms from the Western Pacific-1977 Typhoon Storm Season. The objective of the experiment was to evaluate the performance of the MFM in the Western Pacific where a sparsity of data and large storms exist. The initial analysis came from the Operational Spectral Analysis System. From this analysis a 48- hour Northern Hemisphere Six-Layer Primitive Equation Model forecast on a 381 km (true at 60° latitude) grid was generated to provide boundary conditions for the MFM. Forecast results are verified against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center provided typhoon positions.
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