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A recurving tropical storm and perfect boundary conditions regarding the movable-area fine-mesh model in the Western Pacific
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1979
[PDF-1.82 MB]
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Description:A special look was taken of Typhoon Gilda, a storm in the Western Pacific which developed into a typhoon during October 1977. The forecasts for this storm by the Movable-Area Fine-Mesh Model (MFM) gave a slower than actual movement as the storm moved north after recurvature. This case compares well to a similar pattern for MFM forecasts of Hurricane Ella in the Atlantic during September 1978. To see if the forecast deviation from the observed track was forecast model dependent or due to the forecast boundary input, a set of perfect boundaries were used. This consisted of setting up the hemispheric analysis as the forecast boundary input to the model, each 12 hours out to 48 hours. In addition, two other typhoons were examined in regard to the influence of boundary conditions on the MFM forecasts of their storm tracks.
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Content Notes:James Kerlin.
"May 1979."
"This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members."
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Includes bibliographical references (page 14).
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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Compliance:Library
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