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A comparison of the LFM, spectral, and ECMWF numerical model forecasts of deepening oceanic cyclones during one cool season
  • Published Date:
    1986
Filetype[PDF - 1001.01 KB]


Details:
  • Personal Authors:
  • Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
  • Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 312
  • Document Type:
  • Description:
    "This study compares the performances of the NMC Limited-Area Fine Mesh Model (LFM), the NMC Spectral Model (which is currently called the Global Aviation Model), and the European Center Medium Range Weather Forecast Model (ECMWF) in determining the surface intensities and positions of deepening oceanic cyclones over the LFM coverage regions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. For all three models, the cyclone analyses and 24-h and 48-h forecasts are validated by the final NMC North American Surface Analysis (NASC) which is a hand analysis of surface station data. This report will discuss the formation of the oceanic cyclone data set and present gross model error statistics, model error correlation coefficients, and displacement error graphs to evaluate the models' performances with regard to the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basin regions of coverage and to the "bomb" and "non-bomb" relative cyclone development rates"--Introduction.

  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files