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Determination of errors in LFM forecasts of surface lows over the northwest Atlantic ocean
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1986
[PDF-1.01 MB]
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Description:"Forecast low central pressure (cp) and position errors were determined for the National Weather Service's Limited-Area Fine Mesh Model (LFM) 12h forecast (F12), 24h forecast (F24), 36h forecast (F36), and 48h forecast (F48) from a 7 year (1/78 - 1/85) archive. LFM analyses were used to verify the forecasts. A regional pattern tracking program was developed to track and to verify the surface lows over the Northwest Atlantic Ocean using the LFM analysis and forecast sea level pressure (SLP) fields. An attempt was made to find regression equations to correct the LFM model's cp and position forecast errors, but independent data sample tests indicated that the regression equations could only slightly improve the forecasts. This study also found that a positive bias cp error results from the use of the biquadratic and the bilinear interpolation procedures for determining the low cp. This report will present the 7 year LFM forecast errors in graphical plots and statistical summaries. This report will also describe the pattern tracking program (PTP), test the PTP performance, evaluate the standard cp interpolation methods, and discuss the attempts to find useful regression equations for the LFM forecast errors"--Introduction.
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Content Notes:Stephen J. Auer/.
"July 1986."
"This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members."
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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