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Evaluating numerical model quantitative precipitation forecasts
  • Published Date:
Filetype[PDF - 899.07 KB]

  • Personal Authors:
  • Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
  • Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 367
  • Document Type:
  • Description:
    "Objective evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) is usually done by calculating precipitation threat scores and forecast biases for various quantitative precipitation (QP) categories. The selection of critical threshold amounts defining these categories is dependent on the length of the forecast interval with the convention of using one-quarter, one-half, or whole inch increments adopted for convenience. Subjective interpretation of the quality of numerical model QPF is strongly influenced by the graphical representation of QP on rainfall charts; and the convention used is one-half inch contouring intervals. Objective and subjective evaluation of model QPF is discussed in the following sections. A new verification score is derived and an example of its application is presented"--Introduction.

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