| A mixed layer model of the upper ocean coupled to the medium range forecast model (MRF-91) - :11445 | National Weather Service (NWS)
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A mixed layer model of the upper ocean coupled to the medium range forecast model (MRF-91)
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    A mixed layer model of the upper ocean was developed and coupled to the global Medium Range Forecast model (MRF-91). This model is of the type commonly referred to as bulk models and includes detailed parameterizations of wind mixing, convective overturning, heating and cooling by surface fluxes, heating by penetrative radiation, and large scale vertical advection driven by the curl of the wind stress. The model was tested under a series of idealized forcing cases and the results compared favorably with those of similar models. The mixed layer model was then coupled to the MRF-91 and run once every 12 hours right after the radiation computations. The coupled model was tested in both one way and two way interaction modes. In the former, the ocean model was forced by the MRF surface fluxes but the predicted sea surface temperatures (SST) were not fed back into the MRF. In the two way mode, the two models were fully interactive with predicted SSTs at each ocean model time step used in subsequent surface flux computations. Results from a 10 day forecast were quite encouraging. The large scale pattern of SST changes was generally predicted quite well with predicted changes somewhat smoother and smaller than observed. There were also several significant deficiencies such as an underestimate of cooling in the Southern hemisphere. Nevertheless, compared to the current operational "no-change" SST prediction, the coupled model SST changes are clearly superior and skillful.

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