Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center, Practical Aspects

Details

• Personal Author:
  Tracton, M. Steven ; Kalnay, Eugenia, 1942-
• Corporate Authors:
  National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
• Description:
  "A new era in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), particularly as it relates to medium- and extended- range forecasting, began on 7 December 1992 when the National Meteorological Center (NMC) began to perform daily ensemble predictions. Instead of a single prediction through day 10, the new system provides forecasters with 14 Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model predictions valid for the same 10-day period. The construction of the forecast ensembles is based on a combination of time lagging (Lagged-Average Forecasting or LAF, Hoffman and Kalnay, 1983), and a new method denoted "Breeding of Growing Modes" or BGM (Toth and Kalnay, 1993)"--Introduction, paragraph 1.
• Content Notes:
  M. Steven Tracton and Eugenia Kalnay.
  
  "April 1993."
  
  System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
  
  Includes bibliographical references (pages 16-18).
  
  
• Keywords:
  Mathematical Models Numerical Analysis Numerical Weather Forecasting Weather Forecasting Mathematical Models Numerical Analysis Numerical Weather Forecasting Weather Forecasting
• Series:
  Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.))   392
• Document Type:
  Office Note
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Rights Information:
  Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:4d11d87e463874495cf601294ca661bbd3d06c766b5e94b71050fb96c65d5905
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11440/noaa_11440_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.76 MB ]