Environmental Research Laboratories (U.S.), Environmental Sciences Group,

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)

From 1 June to 15 August 1982 the Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS) conducted a forecast exercise in the Front Range area of Colorado. One purpose of the exercise was to evaluate the PROFS real-time operational workstation as an aid to improving the timeliness and accuracy of short-term forecasts. The authors describe the workstation, the forecasts issued (severe storm warnings, and short-term point forecasts of wind, visibility, and precipitation), and the verification program. Forecasts issued from an AFOS (Automation of Field Operations and Services) workstation are compared with forecasts prepared on the PROFS workstation. Probability of detection scores, false alarm rates, and critical success indices are given for each workstation. Small sample sizes and problems in exercise design preclude definitive answers. However, the exercise results suggest that improved forecasting performance is possible with the advent of advanced technology and training of forecasters in preparing short-term forecasts as well as in using advanced technology capabilities.

Technical Report