Gica, Edison

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has developed a tsunami forecast model for Santa Barbara, California, as part of an effort to provide tsunami forecasts for U.S. coastal communities. Development, validation, and stability testing of the tsunami forecast model has been conducted to ensure that it is stable and robust. The Santa Barbara tsunami forecast model employs the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) numerical code. It has been validated with a total of six historical events, and shows reasonably good agreement between observed and modeled data. The stability and reliability of the model was tested with 43 artificial tsunamis simulated from different source regions using three different earthquake magnitudes (Mw 9.4, 7.5, and 6.2), and further tested with eight additional historical events. Although the tests conducted were neither part of any hazard assessment study nor comprehensive, the results show that Santa Barbara is extensively inundated by tsunamis originating from the East Philippines, the Manus oceanic convergence zone, Alaska, and the southern part of South America. [doi:10.7289/V508639D (http://dx.doi.org/10.7289/V508639D)]

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)