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Climate-corrected storm-frequency examples
  • Published Date:
    2000
Filetype[PDF - 3.41 MB]


Details:
  • Personal Authors:
  • Corporate Authors:
    Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
  • Series:
    NOAA technical memorandum GLERL ; 118
    GLERL contribution ; No. 1174
  • Document Type:
  • Description:
    "Storm frequency estimates (e.g., maximum precipitation or flow probabilities) allow engineers and hydrologists to assess risks associated with their decisions during the design, construction, and operation of water resource projects. Storm frequencies for the future are often estimated directly from past historical records of sufficient length. The estimation requires no detailed knowledge of the area's meteorology, but presumes it remains unchanged in the future. However, the climate seldom remains static. Numerous climate forecasts of meteorology probabilities over extended periods are now available to the water resource engineer and hydrologist. It is possible to use these meteorology forecasts directly in the estimation of storm frequencies from the historical record. It is more desirable to do so now than at any time past, since meteorology forecasts have been improving and are now better than their predecessors. A heuristic approach is defined here to estimate storm frequencies that recognize forecasts of extended weather probabilities. Basically, those groups of historical meteorology record segments matching forecast meteorology probabilities are weighted more than others, during the estimation of storm frequencies. (Affiliated groups of hydrology record segments may be similarly weighted for hydrological estimation; e.g., flood frequency estimation.) Examples include frequency estimation of maximum daily precipitation and maximum flow, using currently available agency meteorological forecasts in the US and Canada as well as El Nino and La Nina conditional probabilities"--Abstract.

  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files