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This page includes the documents that were newly added to the repository within the last 30 days.
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    Environmental Evolution of Supercell Thunderstorms Interacting with the Appalachian Mountains
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    Filetype[PDF - 3.81 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Purpura, Sarah M. ;
    Davenport, Casey E.
    ...
    2023 | Weather and Forecasting, 38(1), 179-198
    Description:
    The Appalachian Mountains have a considerable impact on daily weather, including severe convection, across the eastern United States. However, the imp...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.81 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.81 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Probabilistic Skill of Subseasonal Surface Temperature Forecasts over North America
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 5.41 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Vigaud, N. ;
    Tippett, M. K.
    ...
    2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 34(6), 1789-1806
    Description:
    The skill of surface temperature forecasts up to 4 weeks ahead is examined for weekly tercile category probabilities constructed using extended logist...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.41 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.41 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Spatial Correction of Multimodel Ensemble Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts over North America Using Local Laplacian Eigenfunctions
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 4.84 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Vigaud, N. ;
    Tippett, M. K.
    ...
    2020 | Monthly Weather Review, 148(2), 523-539
    Description:
    The extent to which submonthly forecast skill can be increased by spatial pattern correction is examined in probabilistic rainfall forecasts of weekly...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.84 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.84 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-Ensemble Outputs
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 6.98 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Lin, Jonathan ;
    Emanuel, Kerry
    ...
    2020 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(5), 1713-1731
    Description:
    This paper describes the development of a model framework for Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-Ensemble Outputs (FHLO). FHLO quantifies the forecas...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 6.98 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 6.98 MB]
    03/19/2024
    A Multiresolution Ensemble Hybrid 4DEnVar with Variable Ensemble Sizes to Improve Global and Tropical Cyclone Track Numerical Prediction
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 5.09 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Jones, Erin A. ;
    Wang, Xuguang
    2023 | Monthly Weather Review, 151(5), 1145-1166
    Description:
    The current global operational four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation (DA) system at NCEP adopts a background ensemble at a...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.09 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.09 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Diurnal Differences in Tropical Maritime Anvil Cloud Evolution
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 4.61 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Gasparini, Blaž ;
    Sokol, Adam B.
    ...
    2022 | Journal of Climate, 35(5), 1655-1677
    Description:
    Satellite observations of tropical maritime convection indicate an afternoon maximum in anvil cloud fraction that cannot be explained by the diurnal c...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.61 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.61 MB]
    03/19/2024
    A Preliminary Examination of Warm Season Precipitation Displacement Errors in the Upper Midwest in the HRRRE and HREF Ensembles
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Kiel, Benjamin M. ;
    Gallus, William A.
    ...
    2022 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 23(6), 1007-1024
    Description:
    Increased operational use of convection-allowing models and ensembles offers substantial improvements for some aspects of convective weather forecasti...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Short-Term Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Spatially Shifted QPF Informed by Displacement Errors
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 1.35 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Hugeback, Kyle K. ;
    Franz, Kristie J.
    ...
    2023 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(1), 21-34
    Description:
    Errors associated with the location of precipitation in QPFs present challenges when used for hydrologic prediction, particularly in small watersheds....
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.35 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.35 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Factors Influencing Ensemble Sensitivity–Based Targeted Observing Predictions at Convection-Allowing Resolutions
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 2.97 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Hill, Aaron J. ;
    Weiss, Christopher C.
    ...
    2020 | Monthly Weather Review, 148(11), 4497-4517
    Description:
    Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is applied to select types of observations, in various locations and in advance of forecast convection, to systema...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.97 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.97 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Evaluation of Recent NCEP Operational Model Upgrades for Cool-Season Precipitation Forecasting over the Western Conterminous United States
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 3.93 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Caron, Marcel ;
    Steenburgh, W. James
    2020 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(3), 857-877
    Description:
    In August 2018 and June 2019, NCEP upgraded the operational versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS), res...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.93 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.93 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Climatology of Orographic Precipitation Gradients in the Contiguous Western United States
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Bohne, Lucas ;
    Strong, Courtenay
    ...
    2020 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(8), 1723-1740
    Description:
    Orographic precipitation gradients (OPG) relating to the increase or decrease in precipitation amount with elevation are not well studied or analyzed ...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Performance of the HWRF Rapid Intensification Analog Ensemble (HWRF RI-AnEn) during the 2017 and 2018 HFIP Real-Time Demonstrations
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 1.90 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Lewis, William E. ;
    Rozoff, Christopher
    ...
    2020 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(3), 841-856
    Description:
    The performance of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model Rapid Intensification Analog Ensemble (RI-AnEn) is evaluated for real-t...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.90 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.90 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Improving Near-Surface Short-Range Weather Forecasts Using Strongly Coupled Land–Atmosphere Data Assimilation with GSI-EnKF
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 5.66 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Lin, Liao-Fan ;
    Pu, Zhaoxia
    2020 | Monthly Weather Review, 148(7), 2863-2888
    Description:
    Strongly coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation has not yet been implemented into operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Up to n...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.66 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.66 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Examining the Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Retrievals on Short-Range Weather Prediction under Weakly and Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation with WRF-Noah
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 4.68 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Lin, Liao-Fan ;
    Pu, Zhaoxia
    2019 | Monthly Weather Review, 147(12), 4345-4366
    Description:
    Remotely sensed soil moisture data are typically incorporated into numerical weather models under a framework of weakly coupled data assimilation (WCD...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.68 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.68 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Toward Identifying Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Using North American Weather Regimes
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 4.73 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Robertson, Andrew W. ;
    Vigaud, Nicolas
    ...
    2020 | Monthly Weather Review, 148(5), 1861-1875
    Description:
    Large-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the Nor...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.73 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.73 MB]
    03/19/2024
    A Nonmodal Instability Perspective of the Declining Northern Midlatitude Synoptic Variability in Boreal Summer
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 4.28 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Zhao, Siyu ;
    Deng, Yi
    ...
    2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(3), 1177-1192
    Description:
    The Pacific–North America–North Atlantic sector in general experienced a dryer and warmer climate in summer during the past 40 years. These change...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.28 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 4.28 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Hydrometeor Lofting and Mesoscale Snowbands
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 7.02 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Lackmann, Gary M. ;
    Thompson, Gregory
    2019 | Monthly Weather Review, 147(11), 3879-3899
    Description:
    Environments that accompany mesoscale snowbands in extratropical cyclones feature strong midlevel frontogenesis and weak symmetric stability, conditio...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 7.02 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 7.02 MB]
    03/19/2024
    An Evaluation of Snowband Predictability in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 2.98 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Radford, Jacob T. ;
    Lackmann, Gary M.
    ...
    2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 34(5), 1477-1494
    Description:
    Narrow regions of intense, banded snowfall present hazardous travel conditions due to rapid onset, high precipitation rates, and lowered visibility. D...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.98 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.98 MB]
    03/19/2024
    Evaluating CFSv2 Subseasonal Forecast Skill with an Emphasis on Tropical Convection
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 5.29 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Weber, Nicholas J. ;
    Mass, Clifford F.
    2017 | Monthly Weather Review, 145(9), 3795-3815
    Description:
    This study examines the subseasonal predictive skill of CFSv2, focusing on the spatial and temporal distributions of error for large-scale atmospheric...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.29 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.29 MB]
    03/19/2024
    The Impacts of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Cumulus Parameterization on Subseasonal Prediction in a Global Convection-Permitting Model
    Cite
    Filetype[PDF - 5.25 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Weber, Nicholas J. ;
    Mass, Clifford F.
    ...
    2020 | Monthly Weather Review, 148(12), 4747-4765
    Description:
    Monthlong simulations targeting four Madden–Julian oscillation events made with several global model configurations are verified against observation...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.25 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.25 MB]
    03/19/2024
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