{"Bibliographic":{"Title":"Strategic Plan for the Modernization and Associated Restructuring of the National Weather Service","Authors":"","Publication date":"1989","Publisher":""},"Administrative":{"Date created":"08-17-2023","Language":"English","Rights":"CC 0","Size":"0000049110"},"Pages":["Strategic Plan\nfor the\nModernization and\nAssociated Restructuring\nof the\nNational Weather Service\nDEPARTMENT\nATMOSPHEAIC\nOF\nCOMMUNITY\nAND\nDEPARTMENT\nSECURITY\nNOAA\nAMOUNT\n*\n*\nAvenue\nUS\nCOUNTRY\nSOEPARTMENTS\nSTATES\nOF\nOF","NOAA\nDEPARTMENT\nCover photograph compliments of the National\nCenter for Atmospheric Research Field Observing\nFacility\nThe right side of the photograph shows the main\nstorm tower of a rotating thunderstorm near\nLimon, Colorado on June 12, 1984. The shelf\ncloud can be seen on the inflow side of the\nstorm at the bottom left side of the tower. This\nthunderstorm later produced several tornados.","QC\n875\nU5\n57\nTable of Contents\n1989\nIntroduction\n1\nPrinciples for the Modernization and Associated Restructuring\n2\nThe Need To Implement New Science and Technology\n3\nThe Technological Opportunity\n5\nMajor Technologies for Modernization\n5\nThe Need To Restructure\n8\nThe National Weather Service in the 1990s\n10\nThe Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Area of Responsibility\n10\nIntegrated Operations Within the WFO\n10\nThe New Structure\n12\nStaffing\n16\nImplementation\n18\nTransition Planning\n19\nDemonstration and Certification\n20\nImplementation Schedule\n21\nExperimental Systems\n22\nProductivity and Efficiency Advantages\n23\nMeeting the Challenge of the 1990s\n24\nLIBRARY\nMAR 1 6 1990\nN.O.A.A.\nU.S Dept of Commerce","Introduction\nWeather pervades and affects the daily life of each American. Since\nthe beginning of the Republic, a strong scientific tradition of meteor-\nological research and service has existed in the United States. At a\nnational, regional, and local scale, weather affects the Nation's agri-\nculture, water resources, transportation, general economy, and public\nsafety. Accurate information about future atmospheric events is key\nto mitigating any adverse effects of the weather. Federal agencies\nhave long joined in cooperative efforts to collect, share, and effec-\ntively use weather data and information for the public good. Ap-\nplied research conducted over the last ten years in the National\nOceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Environmental\nResearch Laboratories in New Jersey, Colorado and Oklahoma, and\nother Federal laboratories such as the National Center for Atmo-\nspheric Research has demonstrated that state-of-the-art laboratory\ntechniques for analyzing and predicting severe weather and flood\nphenomena can be practicably applied to Weather Service opera-\ntions. Because the scientific understanding of the atmosphere and\nthe ability to forecast large and small-scale weather phenomena has\nincreased dramatically over the last two decades, the Department\nof Commerce has set an ambitious goal for the National Oceanic\nand Atmospheric Administration's agency, the National Weather\nService (NWS):\nTo modernize the NWS through the deployment of proven obser-\nvational, information processing and communications technologies,\nand to establish an associated cost effective operational structure.\nThe modernization and associated restructuring of NWS shall as-\nsure that the major advances which have been made in our ability\nto observe and understand the atmosphere are applied to the prac-\ntical problems of providing weather and hydrologic services to the\nNation.\nImplementation and practice of the new science will achieve more\nuniform weather services across the Nation, improve forecasts, pro-\nvide more reliable detection and prediction of severe weather and","flooding, permit a more cost effective NWS, and achieve higher\nproductivity for NWS employees. The effort to improve weather\nwarnings and forecasts will be guided by the principle of providing\nhigh quality weather services to users while concurrently lowering\nNWS operating costs. The development of new technologies will be\nguided by the principle of balancing technical and service improve-\nments with overall costs. All changes proposed by the NWS will\nallow productivity and efficiency for any entity dependent on weather\ninformation. This includes local, state, and Federal government\nagencies, private sector meteorologists, private industry, and resource\nmanagement organizations.\nIn 1988, Public Law 100-685 was signed by the President which, in\npart, specifies conditions on the planning, reporting and accomplish-\nment of the modernization and associated restructuring of the NWS.\nThis Strategic Plan is the first response to the Congress required by\nPublic Law 100-685. The Federal law requires an identification of\nthe basic service improvement objectives of the modernization, the\npivotal new technological components, and the associated opera-\ntional changes required to fulfill the objectives of weather and flood\nwarning improvements. Plans, resources, schedules, etc. will be con-\ntained in the second, and subsequently annual report required by\nthe Congress-the National Implementation Plan.\nThe Modernization and Associated Restructuring goal will require\nPrinciples for the\nsignificant changes in the current weather service infrastructure and\nModernization and\noperations. Accordingly, the following principles will guide the planning\nAssociated\nand implementation.\nRestructuring\nThroughout the process of change, the NWS is committed to its\nmission which is to provide weather and flood warnings, public\nforecasts and advisories for all of the United States, its territories,\nadjacent waters and ocean areas, primarily for the protection of life\nand property. NWS data and products are provided to private\nmeteorologists for the provision of all specialized services. The\nfollowing principles are essential to meet the operational mission\nand will be continued during the modernization and associated\nrestructuring transition period.\nThe principle that the modernization and associated restructuring\nprocess will not result in the degradation of services to the general\n2","public. Also, service and structural changes and improvements will\nbe implemented only when certified in accordance with Public Law\n100-685 to be beneficial to users.\nThe principle that NWS employees will be involved because their\nparticipation is crucial to a successful transition and improved\noperations. Significant levels of training and education will be pro-\nvided SO that employees will gain the necessary expertise to utilize\nthe new technologies, understand the new sciences underpinning the\nmodernization and associated restructuring and provide the improved\nservices to the Nation. The changes will provide exciting opportu-\nnities for professional growth.\nThe principle that United States international meteorological and\nhydrologic obligations will be met during and after the moderniza-\ntion and associated restructuring. The exchange of global atmospheric\ndata is essential to the successful interpretation and forecast of\nweather phenomena in the United States. The NWS is a partner\nsupporting national security interests on a global basis.\nThe principle that NWS employees will continue to provide the\nquality weather services required by the country in the most\neconomical manner.\nThe Need To\nA weather service organization, whether private or public, fulfills\nfundamental public safety and economic needs. The information\nImplement New\nprovided supports life-saving and economic productivity decisions.\nScience and\nFor example, hurricane evacuation recommendations and airline\nTechnology\nrouting decisions are heavily dependent on weather forecasts. As a\nNation, the United States experiences more severe local storms and\nflooding than any other in the world. Eighty-five percent of all\npresidentially declared disasters result from severe weather events.\nIn a typical year, the United States can expect a staggering assault\nby the elements: some 10,000 violent thunderstorms, 5,000 floods,\n1,000 tornados, and several hurricanes. Along with periods of severe\ndrought, hard winters, and heat waves, these events translate into\nconsiderable loss of life and annual property damages estimated in\nbillions of dollars.\nThe most deadly of our Nation's weather events-tornados, severe\nthunderstorms, and flash floods-are also the most difficult to detect\n3","and forecast. They form and exist at the small atmospheric scale\n(mesoscale) and are measured in minutes and tens of miles. Most\nmesoscale phenomena are well below the operational resolution of\nroutine observations and analysis today. However, prototype ob-\nserving technologies and information processing systems, when\nmade available to research meteorologists have provided the first\nobservations of, and insights into the formative indicators of dynamic\nmesoscale processes of the atmosphere. When implemented opera-\ntionally, these systems and associated science will improve all weather\nforecasts provided by national meteorological centers and weather\nforecast offices. These new systems will enable earlier detection and\npermit the short range prediction of destructive, violent, local storms\nand floods, thereby mitigating a glaring shortfall in current warning\nservices. The new observational technologies planned for the next\ndecade will provide unprecedented amounts of complex informa-\ntion and data, requiring significantly higher levels of analytical and\ninterpretive skills by the operational forecasters.\nTo realize the gains from this research and technology, the Nation\nneeds to put the new meteorological science into practice. This will\nrequire training personnel and the deployment of proven, new observa-\ntional, information processing, and communications technologies.\nAt present, the vintage technologies that compose part of today's\nweather service infrastructure need to be replaced. As the equipment\nhas aged, it has become costly to maintain. By replacing the equip-\nment with more reliable technologies that support the new scientific\ncapabilities, the Nation can move into the twenty-first century with\nstrengthened confidence in its atmospheric prediction capabilities.\nImproved Weather Services\nTrained\nNew\nNew\nPersonnel\nScience\nTechnology\nThe Need To Implement New Technology\n4","The Technological\nOpportunity\nMajor Technologies\nNew technological systems are essential in providing the opportunity\nto improve warning and forecast services and for replacing obsolete\nfor Modernization\nand increasingly unreliable existing systems. Each of the new tech-\nnologies plays a unique, but complementary role in the modernization\nprocess. The information provided by the new observational tech-\nnologies will yield high resolution, time variant, three-dimensional\nrepresentations of details on the state of the atmosphere. At Weather\nForecast Offices, intended to perform warning and forecast ser-\nvices, advanced weather data processing systems will aid the fore-\ncaster in the assimilation of changing data and numerical weather\nprediction products. The meteorologist and hydrologist will be able\nto rapidly manipulate, display and analyze information, thus enabling\nthem to combine scientific principles and operational experience to\nproduce more accurate and timely warning and forecast services for\nthe Nation. The new high-resolution data sets and derived informa-\ntion are an important input to business and economic decision\nmaking outside the NWS.\nNumerous Federal agencies have long shared in the observation and\nexchange of hydrometeorological data. The existing national observing\nnetworks are sparse and limited in their coverage of the Nation's\natmosphere. The NWS is joined in its acquisition of much of the\nmajor new technologies by the Department of Transportation's Fed-\neral Aviation Administration and the Department of Defense, which\nresults in economies of scale and a reduction in purchase costs.\nThe geographical placement of the new radars and automated sur-\nface observing systems is coordinated by the three agencies thereby\nproviding more uniform national coverage by these land-based\nsystems. The new geostationary meteorological satellites being pro-\ncured by NOAA complement the new radars and automated sur-\nface observing systems with blanket coverage of the conterminous\nstates. Data from these new observing systems will be shared by\neach participating agency and will be available in summary form\nthroughout the Nation.\n5","Automating surface observations will relieve staff from the manual\nAutomated Surface\ncollection of surface observations. Over 1000 ASOS systems across\nObserving System (ASOS)\nthe Nation will be providing data on pressure, temperature, wind\ndirection and speed, runway visibility, cloud ceiling heights, and\ntype and intensity of precipitation on a nearly continuous basis.\nThe 1000 ASOS sites include approximately 750 airport installa-\ntions under the jurisdiction of the Federal Aviation Administration\nand approximately 250 NWS sites. The Department of Defense is\nalso considering the acquisition of additional units. The observa-\ntional data provided by the ASOS system supports aviation opera-\ntions and provides meteorological data needed by severe weather,\nflash flood, and river flood forecasting programs. The national\ncapability to observe and transmit critical changing weather condi-\ntions almost as they occur represents an important enhancement\nfor improving warning and forecast services.\nUtilizing Doppler radar technology, the NEXRAD system will ob-\nNext Generation Weather\nserve the presence and calculate the speed and direction of motion\nRadars (NEXRAD)\nof severe weather elements such as tornados and violent thunder-\nstorms. NEXRAD will also provide quantitative area precipitation\nmeasurements SO important in hydrologic forecasting of potential\nflooding. The severe weather and motion detection capabilities of-\nfered by NEXRAD will contribute toward an increase in the accu-\nracy and timeliness of NWS warning services. At present, for example,\ndue to the limitation in the current radar detection systems, torna-\ndo warnings are usually issued only when visual sightings have\nbeen reported. The advent of NEXRAD will not only allow for an\nearlier detection of the precursors to tornadic activity, but will also\nprovide data on the direction and speed of tornado cells once they\nform. The national network of 160 NEXRAD systems provides a\nsignificant improvement in uniform coverage over the present day\nradar network. The NWS plans to operate 121 NEXRAD systems;\nthe remainder of the NEXRAD systems will be located at Federal\nAviation Administration and Department of Defense locations.\nFor severe weather and flood warnings and short range forecasts,\nSatellite Upgrades\ncloud imagery and atmospheric sounding data from the geostationary\nmeteorological satellites will continue to be a major data source.\nThe new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)\n6","I-M system will have separate instrumentation that allows simulta-\nneous image and sounding data to be observed and transmitted to\nground stations. The GOES I-M system will also provide visible\nand infrared imagery data updates as frequently as every six minutes\nduring severe weather warning situations over selected areas of the\nUnited States.\nFor longer-range forecasting, soundings from the polar orbiting sat-\nellites are a primary data input into the National Meteorological\nCenter numerical forecast models. The Advanced Microwave Sounding\nUnit, to be flown on the NOAA K-M satellite series, will provide\nglobal soundings in cloudy regions at nearly the same level of ac-\ncuracy as those presently produced in cloud free areas.\nNational Center Advanced\nWarnings and forecasts prepared by NWS offices in the next decade\nComputer Systems\nwill rely heavily on the basic analyses and guidance products pro-\nvided by the National Meteorological Center, especially for periods\nof 36 hours and beyond. These analyses and guidance products re-\nsult from numerical models of the atmosphere run on high-speed\ncomputers. The future requirement for guidance products for meso-\nscale warnings and forecasts is greatly increased over the present.\nFundamental model improvements are necessary to satisfy these re-\nquirements and provide guidance products of sufficient quality and\nfrequency to support the warning and forecast operation at each\noffice. Present day Class VI computers do not possess sufficient\ncapacity to support the improvements needed at the National Centers.\nThese increased demands require the acquisition of dedicated next\ngeneration Class VII computer capabilities with a processing capability\nan order of magnitude greater than the present Class VI computer.\nAdvanced Weather\nThe revised AWIPS system will be the nerve center of the operations.\nInteractive Processing\nAWIPS will be the data integrator receiving the high-resolution data\nSystem (AWIPS)\nfrom the observation systems, the centrally collected data and the\ncentrally prepared analysis and guidance products from the National\nMeteorological Center. The integration of all of this data from\nmultiple sources represents the information base from which all\nwarning and forecast products will be prepared. The AWIPS system\nwill provide fast-response interactive analysis and display of the\n7","data to help support the meteorologist make rapid decisions, pre-\npare warnings and forecasts, and disseminate products to users.\nAWIPS includes the communications network that inter-connects\neach Weather Forecast Office for exchange of locally generated\ndata. NOAAPORT will provide communications support for the\noperational distribution of the centrally collected data and centrally\nproduced analysis and guidance products, as well as the satellite\nimagery and sounding data processed by the National Environmental\nSatellite, Data and Information Service. In addition to supporting\nthe requirement for AWIPS point to multi-point communications,\nNOAAPORT will also deliver a wide range of NOAA products,\nsuch as oceanographic and environmental data to external users in-\ncluding other government agencies, universities, private research\norganizations, and business interests.\nThe planned restructuring involves changing the number and location\nThe Need\nof field offices in a manner responsive to certification conditions\nTo Restructure\nimposed by Public Law 100-685, a gradual transformation of the\nworkforce to one more professional in its makeup, and a reallocation\nof operational responsibilities between field offices and the Na-\ntional Centers.\nThe effective use of the advanced technologies planned for the NWS\nis closely linked to the scientific abilities of NWS personnel and\nthe national field office structure. The current field office structure\nhas evolved intermittently throughout the agency's history. Today,\nthe structure supports a labor intensive observation and dissemina-\ntion network. If the new technological network were constrained by\nthe current field office structure, required staffing levels and overall\ncosts would increase unnecessarily.\nThe need to restructure is twofold: first, the combination of new\noperational concepts, new data sets, and an evolving scientific under-\nstanding of the dynamic processes associated with the most danger-\nous weather phenomena requires an increase in the number of me-\nteorologists. During periods of impending severe weather and flooding,\noperational personnel are under extreme pressure to make timely\nand accurate decisions. The percentage increase of meteorologists in\nthe NWS workforce will improve warnings and forecasts by taking\nadvantage of the capabilities of the new technologies. Second,\n8","productivity and efficiency gains will occur as a result of increased\nintegration of the new technological observation, information pro-\ncessing and communication systems with the staff. An increased\neffective range of the radar systems and the ability to assemble all\ndata at a reduced number of offices increases productivity and effi-\nciency. The reduced number of offices places a special emphasis on\nthe effective delivery of weather services to communities.\nKey tradeoffs in the restructuring process exist between human\ncapabilities, costs, and programmatic, scientific, and technological\nopportunities. Factors considered in determining restructuring and\nultimately the quality of warning and forecast services include the\nability to establish a more uniform observational network across\nthe country, the automation of observational duties, orographic\n(effects of mountains) characteristics, the ability of the NWS work-\nforce to employ and understand new technologies and science, and\nSO on.\n1\n2\nInterpretation of\nProductivity and\nWeather Phenomena\nEfficiency Gains\nby Meteorologists\nNew\nNew\nIntegration\nInformation\nScientific\nData\nof New\nIs Assembled\nUnderstanding\nSets\nTechnology\nAt Fewer\nwith the\nOffices\nStaff\nThe Need To Restructure is Twofold\n9","The National Weather\nService in the 1990s\nThe Weather Forecast\nA conceptual analogy of the area of responsibility of a WFO can\nbe portrayed as follows: on the surface of a map of the United States\nOffice (WFO) Area\nconsider a uniform arrangement of 115 conterminous cylinders, each\nof Responsibility\nwith a radius of approximately 125 miles, extending from the\nearth's surface up through the atmosphere. The volume of space\ncontained within each cylinder represents the \"area\" of operational\nresponsibility associated with the WFO. A WFO is located in the\ncenter of the base of the cylinder. Each section of the country and\nthe coastal ocean is contained in one of these cylinders and the\nwhole of the country is theoretically uniformly covered.\nThe GOES Satellite positioned over the United States is providing\nuniform coverage with visible and infrared imagery and remote\nsoundings penetrating each cylinder from above. Associated with\neach WFO is one or more NEXRAD radars which scan the at-\nmosphere from near the earth's surface to a height sufficient to\ndetect the majority of meteorological events. Across the surface of\nthe country are the approximately 1000 ASOS units each measuring\nsurface weather parameters as fast as every minute. All of these\ndata within the cylinder are sent directly to the AWIPS system in\neach WFO. The AWIPS is also receiving the centrally produced guid-\nance products from the National Centers generated from globally\nexchanged data. Subsets of these data sets are available to all other\nWFOs through the AWIPS communication network.\nIntegrated Operations\nThe future operations will allow forecasters to comprehensively address\nthe air-sea environment in their assigned area. The observation and\nWithin the WFO\nanalysis of current and expected weather conditions can be quickly\nand reliably completed, critical decisions made, and translated into\nimmediate warnings and forecasts. This is contrasted to current\noperations where a number of meteorologists and technicians are\nrequired to individually evaluate a limited data base and separately\nderive the required variety of warnings and forecasts.\n10","Concept of\nA\nCoverage\nA\nGOES\nB\nAutomated Surface\nObserving System\nC\nNEXRAD Doppler\nRadar\nD\nWeather Forecast\nOffice\nB\nC\nD\nB\nThe concept of the local data base is central to future operations.\nThe high volume of data from the local NEXRAD and geosta-\ntionary meteorological satellites combined with the high frequency\nobservations from ASOS will flow directly to the Weather Forecast\nOffice. The most complete data sets will only be available to the\nlocal WFO. However, summarized data from all NEXRADs and\nASOSs in the Nation will be made available to all field offices.\nThe new observing systems are designed to provide data sets which\ncan be immediately integrated into three dimensional depictions of\nthe rapidly changing state of the environment. Each system will\ncontribute a critical part, combining with and complementing data\nfrom all other systems to form a complete set of information","Depiction of the Total Coverage (at 10,000 Ft. Elevation)\nProvided by the Completed National NEXRAD Network.\nabout the space from the earth's surface to the upper atmosphere\nover the WFO's area of responsibility. AWIPS work stations will\nallow the forecaster to quickly update, quality control, and analyze\ncurrent processes and events detailed within the area of concern. New\ndedicated supercomputer capabilities and high resolution models\nrunning at the National Centers will provide a stream of detailed,\nfrequently updated guidance to forecasters, assisting in the predic-\ntion of future conditions. This represents a new, highly integrated\nmode of operation which greatly increases the productivity of per-\nsonnel, and also holds the promise of increased accuracy and greater\ntimeliness of forecast services for the Nation.\nThe WFO will be the future weather office that will provide all\nThe New Structure\nwarning and forecast services for its assigned area of responsibility.\nThe forecast and warnings operations at the WFO are supported\nby guidance products issued from the National Centers and RFCs.\n12","Locations of the Weather Forecast Offices\nWeather Forecast Offices\nA total of 115 WFOs will exist in the future that will provide weather\n(WFOs)\nand hydrologic services in four major areas:\nWatches and warnings for the general public for severe local\nstorms, floods, flash floods and winter storms. Local and zone\npublic forecasts, and fire weather forecasts;\nLocal aviation watches and warnings, terminal forecasts, and\ndomestic aviation enroute forecasts;\nMarine warnings and forecasts for coastal areas of the Nation\nand the Great Lakes; and\nHydrologic services which identify flash flood-prone areas and\nthe development of community supported surveillance systems.\nThe foundation for the more accurate and timely warnings and\nforecasts will be the guidance products from the National Centers\nand RFCs and the data from the new observing systems: ASOS,\nNEXRAD, and geostationary meteorological satellites. They will\nprovide the unique local data base which depicts the environment\nin the WFO's area of responsibility.\n13","The basic tool for more accurate and timely warnings and forecasts\nfrom the WFO is AWIPS. It will assemble, process and display the\nobservational data and guidance from National Centers. AWIPS will\nhelp meteorologists with the warning and forecast decision process\nthrough an interactive work station. It will preformat warning and\nforecast products and disseminate these products to the users in a\ntimely manner.\nRiver Forecast Centers\nRFCs provide hydrologic forecasts and guidance information in\n(RFCs)\nthree major categories:\nMainstem river and flood forecasts for conditions at approximately\n3000 locations with lead times ranging from six hours to several days;\nFlash flood and headwater guidance to WFOs for warning ser-\nvices involving small drainage basins with response times under six\nhours; and\nLong-term, seasonal forecasts providing estimates of snowmelt\nand water supply outlooks (from excess to drought) at approximately\n1000 locations for periods up to several months in advance.\nIn the 1990s, the operations of RFCs are expected to change in a\nnumber of important ways. Each of the 13 RFCs will be colocated\nwith a WFO. This will result in a more effective utilization of hydro-\nlogical and meteorological information facilitated by a Hydrologic\nAnalysis and Support Group in each colocated facility. It will also\nresult in cost savings through shared facilities and through on-site\nexchange of data and information. Flash flood procedures will be\nmore sophisticated resulting in more frequent updates of guidance\nand information for use by WFOs.\nThe basic river and flood forecasts produced by the RFC for specific\nlocations along mainstem rivers are sent to WFOs as a basis for\nflood warnings to the public. Historically, RFCs have operated on\none forecast cycle per day, based upon manual observations taken\nearly each morning. To keep pace with changing weather and soil\nmoisture conditions, assimilated data from automated data collec-\ntion networks and NEXRAD, and to provide quality control, RFCs\nwill operate an average of 16 hours-per-day. RFC operations will\nexpand to 24 hours during periods of flood threat and with sea-\nsonal peak work loads. RFCs will produce hydrologic forecasts\n14","as frequently as every six hours, based upon additional data and\nimproved forecast procedures. AWIPS will assist hydrologists in the\nRFCs through data collection and processing, hydrological model\nexecution, product formatting, and product dissemination.\nNational Meteorological\nThe National Meteorological Center has the responsibility for national\nCenter\nand international data collection. This data base is first employed\nfor global atmospheric and oceanic analysis. The resultant analysis\nproducts are distributed to international and domestic users which\ninclude the NWS, other government agencies, and private sector\nmeteorologists. The data base is then used as initial input to global\natmospheric numerical models. These models produce international\naviation forecast products, high seas forecast products, long range\nnational forecast, and forecast guidance for local WFOs and RFCs.\nNew dedicated Class VII computer capabilities will enable increases\nin the resolution of the models resulting in improved forecast prod-\nucts and guidance. Traditionally the long range national forecasts\nhave begun at 3-4 days and beyond. The new computers will re-\nduce this threshold to beyond 36 hours. This will allow local fore-\ncasters to devote their attention to short-term weather events that\nare not amenable to centralized model solutions.\nClimate Analysis Center\nThe Climate Analysis Center is a specialized center established in sup-\nport of the National Climate Program Act. The Climate Analysis\nCenter is part of the National Meteorological Center and is colocated\nwith it to take advantage of the data, computers, and scientific ex-\npertise available there. The Climate Analysis Center's responsibilities\nare national and international in scope, related to overall goals of\nthe United States Climate Program and are not directly affected by\nthe NWS field reorganization. The Climate Analysis Center collects,\norganizes and disseminates climate information for diagnosis of\nshort-term climate change; conducts and supports research on the\nphysical cause of short-term (monthly, seasonal and interannual)\nclimate change; and issues forecasts of weekly, monthly, and seasonal\ndepartures of average weather conditions from climatological means.\n15","The National Hurricane Center will continue to be responsible for\nNational Hurricane Center\nthe analysis, prediction, and tracking of tropical weather systems,\ntheir development into tropical storms and hurricanes, and larger\nscale disaster preparedness and coordination. Geostationary meteorol-\nlogical satellites will track and monitor tropical storms 24 hours-\nper-day throughout their entire life cycle. Coastal NEXRADs will\nprovide the opportunity to examine tropical storms and hurricanes\nas they approach land, to an extent never before possible. New dedi-\ncated Class VII computer capabilities located at the National Mete-\norological Center will run new hurricane models which will provide\nimproved hurricane forecast guidance to highly specialized tropical\nand hurricane forecasters located at the National Hurricane Center.\nAWIPS at the National Hurricane Center will integrate data, im-\nprove storm identification and tracking, improve dissemination of\nvital information to the NWS and external users, and allow more\nefficient use of personnel.\nIn the 1990s, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center will pro-\nNational Severe Storms\nvide national severe weather guidance to WFOs and RFCs. It will\nForecast Center\nissue more timely and specific mesoscale guidance necessary to sup-\nport the severe weather and flood warning activities of the WFOs.\nIt will develop new guidance products based upon National Meteorol-\nlogical Center mesoscale model output and new mesoscale data. It\nwill continue to produce special hazardous weather forecasts and\nforecast guidance for domestic aviation users under interagency\nagreement with the Federal Aviation Administration. All of these\nactivities depend on the new observing systems (NEXRAD, ASOS\nand geostationary meteorological satellites), on AWIPS, and on the\nimproved guidance from the National Meteorological Center Class\nVII computer capabilities.\nThe National Data Buoy Center will continue the operation of deep\nNational Data Buoy Center\nsea, coastal buoys, and headland systems. Data from these buoys\nand these coastal systems are essential to marine warnings and fore-\ncasts, and numerical weather predictions.\nThe new observing and data processing and display systems will\nStaffing\nprovide forecasters the opportunity to sample, observe, and analyze\nthe environment to an extent never before possible. The related ex-\n16","pansion of the sciences of meteorology and hydrology will directly\ntranslate into improved service capability while simultaneously al-\nlowing greater efficiencies. Future field offices will have a core staff\nof professional scientists at each WFO and RFC to take advantage\nof these new capabilities. These individuals will be charged to pro-\nvide all warning and forecast services across their area of responsi-\nbility. They will meet these tasks with the ability to evaluate vast\namounts of integrated data, analyze the processes and events which\nwill affect their area, and apply their scientific and technical exper-\ntise in a broad spectrum of immediate decisions. These will trans-\nlate into a flow of service products, warnings, forecasts and advi-\nsories, that will be based on, and contain increased detail for all\nparts of the area.\nMeteorological technicians will require different skills to support the\nnew technologies, and more demanding, and increasingly sophisti-\ncated operations. System maintenance requirements will also place\nincreased demands on electronic technicians who will require advanced\ntraining to support and maintain a variety of complex equipment.\nA Meteorologist-in-Charge will have responsibility for each WFO.\nWFOs will operate 24 hours-per-day. The staffing level will be deter-\nmined by peak service demands and maximum weather activity,\nwith reduced staff requirements at selected offices during hours of\nlower threat and service demands. The support staff in each WFO\nwill include positions providing critical program and maintenance\nsupport to ensure efficient operations and for the practice of ad-\nvanced applied science. The public hydrologic warning, forecast and\ninformation programs of each WFO will be managed and supported\nby Service Hydrologists strategically located at selected WFOs through-\nout the Nation. At each of the 13 colocated WFO/RFC facilities,\na Hydrologist-in-Charge will have responsibility for the RFC, in-\ncluding the Hydrometeorological Analysis and Support Group.\nHydrologists and hydrometeorologists will maintain non-real-time\noperational support functions, as well as provide hydrometeorological\nsupport to the multiple WFOs within the RFC's area of responsi-\nbility. Staffing levels at the RFCs will be sufficient to maintain fore-\ncast services, nominally 16 hours-per-day, with variations attuned to\neach RFC's hydro-climatology and seasonal distribution of flood\nthreats.\n17","Implementation\nThe NWS has never undertaken a systematic modernization and\nassociated restructuring effort of the magnitude presented in this\nStrategic Plan. Accomplishing the transition from today's operation\nto the modernized and restructured NWS of the 1990s, without\ndisrupting ongoing services, will be a complicated process. Applica-\ntion of the new science, enhancement of the workforce, deployment\nof the new technology, and restructuring of field offices will mean\nthat virtually every NWS activity will change in some way during\nthe next eight years.\nManagement of this transition will be a complex effort, involving\nevery level of the NWS. Accordingly, the NWS has established a\nTransition Program Office to provide an organizational focus for\nthe entire transition process. The Transition Program Office will\ndraw upon the technical staff resources of the NWS Headquarters,\nregional offices and field stations to prepare the plans necessary\nfor the NWS modernization and associated restructuring. Once\nthese plans are prepared, the Transition Program Office will\nmanage the implementation.\nStrategic Plan\nFundamental Goals and Objectives\nNational\nGeneral Strategies for Accomplishing\nImplementation Plan\nthe Transition & Implementation Details\nRegional Transition\nRealignment of Operational\nPlan\nResponsibilities\nSite Implementation\nSpecific, Detailed Actions and\nPlan\nSchedules for Each Site\nImplementation Planning\n18","Transition plans will be placed in a tiered structure, with the Strate-\nTransition Planning\ngic Plan as the top level plan. The second tier, the National Imple-\nmentation Plan, will be a broad guidance document supported by\nmore detailed transition planning and implementation activities carried\non throughout the entire agency. The National Implementation Plan\nwill provide a planning framework and general strategies for ac-\ncomplishing the transition, and establish basic transition management\nprinciples that will be used throughout the entire transition period\nin fulfilling the fundamental goals and objectives in the Strategic\nPlan. The National Implementation Plan will be updated annually\nand used to provide the Executive Branch, Congress, cooperating\nagencies, users, and the public with an overview of what moderni-\nzation and associated restructuring is, how and when NWS will ac-\ncomplish the transition, and progress reports on implementation.\nThe third planning tier, the Regional Transition Plans, will provide\nmanagement flexibility and recognize both the decentralized nature\nof the agency's and the NWS Regions' responsiblity to maintain\nongoing operations throughout the transition period. These plans,\nintended for internal use, will set a course that will ultimately achieve\nthe modernization and associated restructuring goals and objectives\nwithin each Region, while taking into account unique conditions at\neach site, such as weather variations and user needs. Each Regional\noffice will have the lead responsibility for preparation of their Regional\nTransition Plan, consistent with national policy.\nThe final planning tier, Site Implementation Plans, will contain specif-\nic, detailed actions and schedules for accomplishment. A separate\nSite Implementation Plan will be prepared for each WFO or\nWFO/RFC, and will address transition of all sites in its area of\nresponsibility. Each Regional office will be responsible for the develop-\nment and integration of Site Implementation Plans, with the sup-\nport of the area managers.\nThe changes in operations and services related to modernization and\nassociated restructuring will ultimately guide the transition. Future\noperations and services define the system outputs, the staffing type\nand mix of an office, and the field structure needed to efficiently\nprovide these services. These, in turn, set requirements for training\nand education, facility preparation, and guide a number of other\ndimensions of the modernization and associated restructuring. A\nrealistic view of technological capabilities, resource availability and\n19","schedules, and the NWS environment will help shape the scope\nand pace of service changes.\nThe breadth of future operations and services is bounded by the\nagency mission and scientific and technological capability. Transi-\ntion planning will recognize and incorporate these factors, and retain\nsufficient flexibility to respond to these dynamics. The NWS will\nplan and maintain a steady and predictable pace for implementa-\ntion to allow sufficient time for orderly change and adjustment,\nboth internally and externally, and to accommodate and capitalize\nupon the new knowledge and understanding acquired throughout\nthe transition period.\nDemonstration and\nThe modernization and associated restructuring of NWS features\nCertification\nimproved services through the effective and efficient use of the new\ntechnology. Aspects of this objective imply significant change both\ninternally and externally. Active participation by NWS employees\nand external users is imperative for a successful transition. Support\nwill be sought by informing them in advance of what changes are\nplanned and why these changes are needed. Clear demonstrations\nof the service improvements that will result from these changes are\na critical element in obtaining NWS employee and external user\nacceptance.\nDemonstrations of new capabilities and services will take place through\na wide range of activities. The Modernization and Associated Re-\nstructuring Demonstration (MARD) will be the centerpiece for dem-\nonstrating the fully modernized and restructured NWS of the 1990s.\nAs currently planned, MARD will take place in a multi-state area\nin the central United States which is extremely prone to severe weather.\nOnce the proper number and mix of staff is in place along with\nthe new technology, and training has been completed, a number of\nWFOs supported by RFCs and National Centers will operate in the\nmodernized and restructured mode as the first step towards national\nconversion to the new structure.\nThe primary objectives of MARD are to demonstrate more accurate\nand timely warning and forecast services and to provide an oppor-\ntunity to evaluate service performance and responses of users with-\nin the context of the most cost-effective organizational structure.\n20","MARD will help refine new operational procedures and resolve imple-\nmentation issues that can best be addressed through actual field ex-\nperience. MARD will also provide an opportunity to examine addi-\ntional organizational efficiencies that may be gained from applica-\ntion of the new science and operation of the new technology, such\nas a 2-tier field office structure with reduced staffing at some offices.\nBased upon the MARD experience, full implementation of moder-\nnized and restructured operations will proceed on a national basis\nin compliance with the provisions of Public Law 100-685. During\nnational conversion to the new structure, existing weather service\noffices would be closed, consolidated, automated or relocated only\nwhen such action can be certified to result in no degradation of\nservices to the affected area.\nDemonstrate\nEvaluate Service\nRefine New\nResolve\nMore Accurate\nPerformance\nOperational\nImplementation\nand Timely\nand User\nProcedures\nIssues\nWarning and\nResponse and\nForecast\nPossible Added\nServices\nEfficiencies\nAssociated Restructuring Demonstration\nModernization\nImplementation\nPrograms to acquire the new technology have been approved, and\nacquisition is underway. Developmental efforts to simulate the Weather\nSchedule\nForecast Office of the 1990s have been undertaken since the late 1970s\nat NOAA's Environmental Research Laboratories as part of the\nProgram for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services. Planning\nfor application of the new science, transformation of the work-\nforce, and the deployment of the new technology has been started.\nIn a broad outline, the implementation schedule for modernization\nand associated restructuring of the NWS will consist of activities\nbracketed in time between now and MARD that must be accom-\nplished in preparation for the demonstration, the Modernization\nand Associated Restructuring Demonstration itself, and implemen-\n21","tation of full modernized and restructured operations after MARD.\nField preparatory and risk reduction activities requiring long lead\ntimes to complete have already begun, and are scheduled to ensure\ntheir timely completion.\nAdditional work is underway on other technologies, though techni-\nExperimental Systems\ncally not now a part of the modernization program. As the research\ncommunity continues development of experimental systems to im-\nprove observational techniques or improve operating efficiencies,\ndemonstration networks may be deployed at specialized operational\nsites to establish and validate the utility of the new data or improved\nsystem. These centers of excellence provide unique opportunities for\nthe research and operational communities to jointly assess and im-\nprove the operational utility of the new scientific innovations.\nA demonstration project is underway that will deploy a new ground-\nbased atmospheric sounding system, the wind profiler. This system\nwill provide data on atmospheric winds with time and height resolu-\ntions not economically available with alternative techniques. Research\nis also continuing on thermo-dynamic profilers that may ultimately\nmake important improvements in the acquisition of moisture and\ntemperature information and lower the operating costs of today's\nupper air program.\n22","Productivity and\nEfficiency Advantages\nIn designing the modernized and restructured NWS as a complete\nsystem, as opposed to the current system, which has evolved spo-\nradically throughout the agency's history, improvements in services\ncan be combined with productivity and efficiency gains by deliberate\ndesign of the new NWS.\nProductivity and service improvements will be achieved by automating\nobservation and communication duties, freeing trained professionals\nto concentrate on the highest operational priority-analyzing and\nforecasting local atmospheric events. Because the data available from\nthe precisely organized satellite, surface observing systems, and\nDoppler radar networks can be processed and manipulated by to-\nmorrow's meteorologists, more accurate and timely warnings and\nforecasts can be provided by fewer field offices. Using more data\nwith fewer offices and a core of professional personnel translates\ninto higher productivity.\nThe productivity gains acquired with the professional workforce,\nnew science, and advanced technologies, in turn, mean operational\nefficiency gains. That is, lower costs associated with delivering more\naccurate and timely warning and forecast services are accomplished\nwhile concurrently increasing the benefits from more timely, perti-\nnent information. The efficiency gains, once achieved, are a direct\nproduct of the entire operational design of the modernized structure.\nNew\nMore Accurate and\nAutomated\nMeteorologists\nTechnology\nTimely Warnings\nObservation and\nAnalyzing and\nand Forecasts Can\nForecasting Local\nCommunication\n+\n+\n=\nBe Provided by\nAtmospheric Events\nDuties\nFewer Field Offices\nProductivity and Efficiency Advantages\n23","Meeting the Challenge\nof the 1990s\nUnderstanding and predicting weather, climate and the state of the\nNation's rivers has never been more important to the people of the\nUnited States and the world. Major advances in technologies, scientific\nunderstanding of the atmosphere, and in the prediction of the lo-\ncalized, most severe storms are within reach. While the resources to\nachieve the goals set forth in this Strategic Plan are significant, they\npale compared to the savings of lives and property attainable through\nthe modernization and associated restructuring of the National\nWeather Service. The challenge of the modernization and associated\nrestructuring is to configure the NWS field offices, implement the\nnew systems and networks, and professionalize the NWS workforce,\nwithout diminishing ongoing operations.\nThis document summarizes the opportunities and challenges that\nthe Nation faces in modernizing and restructuring its capability to\ndetect, understand, and predict our atmosphere. The discussion fo-\ncused on the new scientific concepts that foretell significant advances\nin meteorology and hydrology. It considered the technology available\nto effect these advances and scientific concepts-automated surface\nobservations, Doppler radars, satellites, supercomputers, and ad-\nvanced information processing technology.\nThe people, the new technology, and the new ideas at hand combine\nto offer unprecedented advances in hydrometeorological prediction\nand in understanding climate change.\n24",""]}