{"Bibliographic":{"Title":"Toward a new national weather service : second report","Authors":"","Publication date":"1992","Publisher":""},"Administrative":{"Date created":"08-16-2023","Language":"English","Rights":"CC 0","Size":"0000172485"},"Pages":["QC\n875\n.U6\nN33\n1992\nTOWARD A\nNEW NATIONAL\nWEATHER SERVICE\n- - Second Report\nNATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL","DEMCO\nCover: The Automated Surface Observing System was recently\ninstalled at Colorado Springs, Colorado. Over 1000 of these units\nare being installed throughout the United States in a cooperative\nprogram of the Departments of Commerce (NOAA/NWS), Transpor-\ntation (FAA), and Defense. (Photograph by Allan H. Layman, Jr.,\ncourtesy of Systems Management Incorporated, AAI Corporation.)","QC\n875\n. 46\nTOWARD A\nN33\n1992\nNEW NATIONAL\nWEATHER SERVICE\n- - Second Report\nLIBRARY\nJUN 12 1992\nN.O.A.A.\nU.S. Dept. of Commerce\nPrepared by the\nCommittee on National Weather Service Modernization\nof the\nCommission on Engineering and Technical Systems\nNational Research Council\nNATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS\nWashington, D.C.\nMarch 1992","NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board\nof the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National\nAcademy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The\nmembers of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with\nregard for appropriate balance.\nThis report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures\napproved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of\nSciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.\nThe National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of\ndistinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance\nof science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter\ngranted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the\nfederal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National\nAcademy of Sciences.\nThe National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the\nNational Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous\nin its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of\nSciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of\nEngineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages\neducation and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M.\nWhite is president of the National Academy of Engineering.\nThe Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences\nto secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy\nmatters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the\nNational Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal\ngovernment and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education.\nDr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.\nThe National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in\n1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of\nfurthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general\npolicies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both\nthe National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services\nto the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is\nadministered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr.\nRobert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.\nThis study was supported by Contract No. 50-DGNW-0-00041 between the National\nAcademy of Sciences and the Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric\nAdministration.\nAvailable in limited supply from:\nTransition Program Office\nNational Weather Service\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\n1325 East West Highway\nSilver Spring, MD 20910\n(301) 713-0454\nPrinted in the United States of America","NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION COMMITTEE\nCHARLES L. HOSLER, JR., Senior Vice President for Research and Dean\nof the Graduate School, Pennsylvania State University, Chairman\nJOHN A. DUTTON, Dean, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences,\nPennsylvania State University\nGEORGE J. GLEGHORN, Vice President and Chief Engineer (retired),\nTRW Space and Technology Group\nPETER R. LEAVITT, Executive Vice President, Weather Services\nCorporation\nANN MAJCHRZAK, Associate Professor, Human Factors Department,\nInstitute of Safety and Systems Management, University of Southern\nCalifornia\nJOHN H. MANLEY, Director, Manufacturing Systems Engineering\nProgram, and Professor of Industrial Engineering, University of\nPittsburgh\nROBERT J. SERAFIN, Director, National Center for Atmospheric\nResearch\nLEONARD W. SNELLMAN, University of Utah\nJOHN W. TOWNSEND, JR., Director (retired), Goddard Space Flight\nCenter, National Aeronautics and Space Administration\nDONALD L. VEAL, President, Particle Measuring Systems, Inc.\nARTHUR I. ZYGIELBAUM, Manager, Science Information Systems\nOffice, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology\nStaff\nDAVID S. JOHNSON, Study Director\nMERCEDES ILAGAN, Senior Study Assistant\niii","","Preface\nDuring 1991, the National Weather Service Modernization Committee\n(NWSMC) continued its second year of studying various aspects of the\nmodernization and associated restructuring of the National Weather Service\n(NWS). The Committee held five meetings during the year, supported by\nindividual efforts of Committee members between meetings. The NWSMC\nhas closely monitored the progress in procurement, development, and\ndeployment of the hardware and software for the modernization to ensure\nthat the public is the early beneficiary of the increased productivity and\nsaving of lives that full implementation of the system will afford.\nChairman Hosler had the opportunity to testify before the Committee on\nScience, Space, and Technology of the House of Representatives and the\nCommittee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation of the Senate.\nThe Committee's First Report (NRC, 1991), the summary of which is\nreproduced in Appendix A, was a broad overview of the modernization\nplans and development. It covered the new observation systems; new\ninformation systems; new structure of the NWS; new and stronger collab-\noration with universities, the private sector (including the mass media and\nprivate weather services), and public institutions; and the implementation\nprocess. This report, the second in a continuing series, raises concerns\nabout the funding and implementation of the modernization as well as the\ndeterioration in the present NWS system, analyzes the response of the\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to the\nrecommendations in the First Report, discusses the certification process and\nrequirements, and provides additional recommendations dealing with\nclimatological considerations of the modernization. The Committee is now\nstudying the impact of the modernization on aviation weather services, the\ndesign of the Modernization and Associated Restructuring Demonstration\nV","(MARD), system security and resiliency, communications in the\nmodernization, and assessment of employee understanding of and reaction\nto modernization; it is also continuing its study of certification. The\nCommittee will report on these and other topics, as appropriate, in future\nreports.\nIn the report that follows, Chapter 1 covers a number of concerns\nabout the pace of deployment of the modernization and some early indica-\ntions of the performance of system components. The Next Generation\nWeather Radar (NEXRAD) program, officially designated the WSR-88D\n(Weather Service Radar-1988 design Doppler), experienced some difficult\ncontract negotiations last year. However, a revised contract has been\nsigned and the limited-production units are being installed with good early\nresults. The Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental\nSatellite (GOES-Next) development has had technical difficulties resulting\nin extensive delay; there is some promise now that the program is moving\ntoward a solution. The Committee is increasingly concerned that budgetary\nproblems and misunderstanding of the crucial role of the Advanced\nWeather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) may lead to additional\ndelays in the modernization and something less than maximum benefits if\nAWIPS does not proceed apace.\nChapter 2 contains a further analysis of issues raised in the Commit-\ntee's First Report in light of the responses of NOAA to the recommenda-\ntions in that report. The Committee highlights areas in which it still has\nsignificant concerns regarding NOAA's responses. The full Committee\nrecommendations, NOAA responses, and Committee analyses are included\nin Appendix B.\nAs discussed in Chapter 3, the Committee spent considerable time in\n1991 working with the NWS on the evolving plan for certifying, in\ncompliance with Title IV of Public Law 100-685 (U.S. Congress, 1988),\nthat there will be no degradation of services during and after moderniza-\ntion. The Committee feels that, beyond the basic certification require-\nments, the NWS should document the improvement in services and the new\nand useful products made possible by the modernization.\nAppendix A is the Summary from the First Report for the benefit of\nthose readers who are not familiar with its contents or with the background\nand structure of the modernization and associated restructuring.\nAppendix C contains a preliminary report from the National Research\nCouncil's (NRC) Climate Research Committee (CRC) of the Board on\nAtmospheric Sciences and Climate. The CRC is continuing its study of the\nvi","climatological considerations of the NWS modernization program and\nexpects to complete its final report during 1992.\nAppendix D contains a letter to the Undersecretary of Commerce for\nOceans and Atmosphere regarding the educational requirements for\nmeteorologists. The reply from the Assistant Administrator of NOAA for\nWeather Services also is included.\nAcknowledgments\nThe Committee appreciates the contribution of the CRC to this report\nand looks forward to receiving its final report. The Committee also would\nlike to acknowledge the professional help of David S. Johnson, Study\nDirector, and Mercedes Ilagan, Senior Study Assistant, of the NRC in\ncarrying out its work. Their services are highly valued in logistical\narrangements, liaison with federal agencies, and preparation of this report.\nCharles L. Hosler, Jr.\nChairman, Committee on National\nWeather Service Modernization\nvii","","Contents\n1\nOverview and Concerns\n1\nSummary, 1\nAutomated Surface Observing System Progress, 4\nProgress of the Next Generation Weather Radar, 4\nDelay in Next Generation GOES, 4\nDelay in the Advanced Weather Interactive\nProcessing System, 6\nBudget for Implementation, 7\nCommunity Liaison and Education, 8\nCollapsing Infrastructure, 8\nThe Bottom Line, 9\n11\nFurther Analysis of Issues Raised in the First Report\n2\nBroad Recommendations, 12\nObservation Components, 13\nNew Information Components, 14\nNew Structure of the National Weather Service, 14\nNew and Stronger Collaboration, 15\nImplementation Process, 17\n18\nThe Certification Process and Requirements\n3\nLegal Requirement for Certification, 19\nCertification Issues, 19\nCertification as an Opportunity for the NWS, 20\nix","Certification Process, 21.\nLocal Emphasis in Certification, 22\nVerification and Interaction with User Groups, 24\nDisseminating the Results, 27\nReferences\n28\nAppendix A\nSummary from First Report\n31\nNew Observation Systems, 33\nViability and Integrity of the Climate Data\nRecord, 34\nNew Information Systems, 35\nNew Structure of the National Weather Service, 36\nWeather Forecast Offices, 36\nHydrology in the National Weather Service\nModernization, 37\nNew and Stronger Collaboration, 38\nUniversities, 38\nPrivate Sector, 39\nPublic Institutions, 40\nImplementation Process, 40\nAppendix B\nReview of Recommendations in the First Report 43\nBroad Recommendations, 43\nFinancial and Personnel Support, 44\nSystem Management, 44\nTechnical Advisory Panels, 45\nAdditional New Technology, 46\nObservation Components, 47\nNext Generation Weather Radar, 47\nAutomated Surface Observing System, 48\nFunding for Satellites, 48\nClimate Data Record, 50\nNew Information Components: AWIPS, 52\nNew Structure of the National Weather Service, 54\nThe Number of Weather Forecast Offices, 54\nHydrology in the National Weather Service\nModernization, 54\nX","New and Stronger Collaboration, 56\nUniversities, 56\nPrivate Sector, 58\nPublic Institutions, 59\nImplementation Process, 60\nPolicy and Procedures for Development of\nSystems, System Security, 60\nTemporary Management and Project Staff, 61\nOperational Staff at Weather Forecast\nOffices, 62\nCertification, 63\nClimatological Considerations of the National\nAppendix C\nWeather Service Modernization Program\n65\nPreface, 65\nBackground, 65\nPrinciples of Observing and Managing Data for\nClimate and Climate Change Research, 67\nAutomated Surface Observing System, 68\nUpper Air Observations, 69\nCooperative Weather Observer Program, 69\nContinuing Work, 70\nExchange of Letters on New Meteorologist\nAppendix D\n73\nStandards\n77\nAcronyms\nxi","1\nOverview and Concerns\nInformation gathered at meetings, accompanying briefings, and site\nvisits over the past year has continued to confirm to the Committee the\nsoundness of the National Weather Service (NWS) plan for modernization.\nThe Committee continues to be enthusiastic about progress being made in\ninstalling the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), the Automated\nSurface Observing System (ASOS), and the software development for\nNEXRAD and for the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System\n(AWIPS) test-beds.\nSUMMARY\nAlthough the Committee is encouraged by the progress made during\nthe past year in some elements of the modernization, it is concerned about\na number of difficulties that may impact the schedule (Figure 1) as well as\nthe quality of the implementation. The delay in development of the Next\nGeneration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-\nNext) is of concern as the current GOES 7 faces degradation, even though\nsome relief may be obtained by borrowing a European satellite. The\nCommittee also is very concerned that budget considerations may lead to\nfurther slowing of AWIPS development at a time when it should be accel-\nerated in order to realize a full return on the present investment in modern-\nization of the NWS. Any delay in AWIPS will delay the Modernization\nand Associated Restructuring Demonstration (MARD) or degrade the\nresults.\n1","NEXRAD\nASOS\nLaunch of first GOES-Next\nAWIPS\nMARD\n1990\n1991\n1992\n1993\n1994\n1995\n1996\n1997\n1998\n1999\nDeployment Schedule (1989 versus 1992)\nFIGURE 1 Changes in the schedules for deployment of key elements\nin the NWS modernization are shown by the pair of horizontal lines for\nNEXRAD, ASOS, AWIPS, and MARD. The upper line in each pair\nwas the schedule as projected in 1989 (NWS, 1990); the lower line, in\nJanuary 1992 (NWS, 1992). The left end of each line represents the\nbeginning, and the right end the completion, of the deployment. For\nMARD, the line represents the one-year duration of the demonstration.\nOnly the projected launch dates are shown for the first GOES-Next\nspacecraft.\nThe Committee is seriously concerned that currently projected budgets\nwill not be adequate to cover the transition expenses necessary for imple-\nmentation of the principal components of the modernization plan. Funding\nfor replacement equipment must also be identified.\nThese are all areas that could endanger the modernization unless the\nentirety of the modernization is fully supported. This is becoming increas-\ningly critical with the passage of time because the current weather system\nis obsolete and the frequency of outages of critical equipment is growing.\nModernization is not a program that can be stretched out. Even if the\npresent schedules can be maintained, there may be serious degradation of\ncurrent services due to failures of old equipment.\n2","Recommendation: The Executive Branch should take the steps\nnecessary to minimize further delays in implementation of the\nmodernization in accordance with the Strategic Plan and the\nNational Implementation Plan for the Modernization and\nAssociated Restructuring of the National Weather Service.\n1\nThe Committee notes the establishment of the new National Oceanic\nand Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Systems Program Office (SPO)\nreporting to the Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and\nAtmosphere. Use of a SPO can be an effective mechanism, but only if it\nis staffed with the appropriate number of qualified technical and manage-\nment people and, importantly, if it keeps the needs of the operator of the\nsystem (i.e., the NWS) closely in mind and ensures good communication\nwith the operator. Further, the components being developed and procured\nby the SPO must be installed and integrated into a complex, ongoing\noperation whose services cannot be interrupted. Thus, close collaboration\nbetween the SPO and the NWS is essential to the success of the moderniza-\ntion.\nRecommendation: Top management of the National Oceanic and\nAtmospheric Administration should carefully monitor the relation-\nship and level of cooperation and collaboration between the Sys-\ntems Program Office and the National Weather Service to ensure\nthe success of the modernization.\nThe Committee also reiterates and emphasizes the following recom-\nmendation from its First Report (NRC, 1991).\nRecommendation: The success of the National Weather Service\nmodernization requires an increased commitment of resources and\npersonnel to the many scientific, technical, and organizational\nchallenges involved. Parsimony now will be expensive later.\n1 DOC, 1989, 1991.\n3","AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM PROGRESS\nAutomated Surface Observing System installations are proceeding on\nschedule and promise more consistent and frequent surface data, without\nhuman-induced errors, and at a much lower cost per observation than the\npresent manual observations. There are concerns about the continuity of\nthe climate record due to the changeover to a new method of observation\nwith different characteristics. These are being addressed by the National\nResearch Council's (NRC) Climate Research Board as noted in Appendix\nC; this appendix contains a number of recommendations. The need for a\ncomparison of new observations with those produced by the old units was\naddressed in the First Report.\nPROGRESS OF THE NEXT GENERATION WEATHER RADAR\nThe Committee is encouraged by the progress being made in the\ndeployment of the limited production models of the Next Generation\nWeather Radar (officially designated WSR-88D for Weather Service Radar-\n1988 design, Doppler). Operational results with the first three units\ninstalled at Norman, Oklahoma; Melbourne, Florida; and Sterling, Virgin-\nia, have already provided dramatic examples of new capabilities (see inset).\nEarlier contract difficulties appear to have been resolved, and the Commit-\ntee trusts that the projected schedule for full implementation of the\nNEXRAD network can now be maintained. However, without the AWIPS,\ndiscussed below, only limited advantage can be taken of the NEXRAD\noutput.\nDELAY IN NEXT GENERATION GOES\nThe delay in development of GOES-Next (see Figure 1) is of concern\nsince the current GOES 7 faces degradation because it is running out of\nfuel for stabilization. With luck, GOES 7, the last of the current produc-\ntion of GOES satellites, will survive until 1994, which seems the most\nprobable time for the first GOES-Next to become available. In the mean-\ntime, cooperative use of the satellites of other nations may help fill any gap\nthat occurs if GOES 7 fails before the first GOES-Next is operational.\n1 A geostationary satellite provides continuous coverage of the atmosphere within\nits field of view. This continuous coverage is important in the improvement of mesoscale\n(high resolution in space and time) warnings and forecasts that are being emphasized in\nthe modernization.\n4","EARLY RESULTS WITH\nNEXT GENERATION WEATHER RADARS\nIn the initial weeks of operation, the Norman, Oklahoma, NEXRAD\nprovided new information on the development of mesocyclones and tornado\nvortices that permitted early warning to those in the path of a tornado. The\ntornado vortex that developed on June 5, 1991, was detected 14 minutes before\ntouchdown in a situation in which old radars would not have detected it. Un-\ndoubtedly lives were saved. From March through June 1991, 96 percent of all\nsevere thunderstorms were detected by the new radar at Norman, compared with\nthe national average of 65 percent during March through July 1991, using the old\noperational radars in most cases. The average lead time for verified tornado\nwarnings was 18 minutes. When the public is educated to understand the\nprecision and timeliness of these warnings and the need to react, more lives will\nbe saved than in the past.\nIn the first days of operation, the Sterling, Virginia, NEXRAD was able to\nwarn airports of a low level jet with large vertical wind shear and boating\ninterests of a strong wind shift accompanying a dry cold front, both of which\nwere not detected by the old operational radar.\nMelbourne, Florida, was able to use the storm tracking and integrated\nprecipitation algorithm of the NEXRAD to anticipate precisely where heavy rains\nwould fall. This was of great help to the public and to emergency management\npersonnel. Previously undetected phenomena, such as dry fronts and local\ncirculations, are being observed that will greatly improve short-range forecasts.\nThis entire episode again emphasizes the need to manage the satellite\ncomponent of the modernized system by including sufficient redundancy to\nminimize the consequences of failure of one satellite (see also page 13).\nAchieving this goal will require more than one GOES in orbit and suffi-\ncient satellites in production or reserve to launch replacements when\nneeded. Not only will early failure of GOES 7 seriously degrade the\nnational weather system-it will be a major national embarrassment.\nRecommendation: Once the technical problems associated with\nthe current development of the Next Generation Geostationary\nOperational Environmental Satellites have been resolved, the\nFederal government should provide adequate funding for follow-on\nspacecraft and launchings to ensure the continuity of geostationary\nsatellite observations, a vital part of the National Weather Service\nmodernization.\n5","DELAY IN THE ADVANCED WEATHER INTERACTIVE\nPROCESSING SYSTEM\nModernization of the NWS depends on the integration of several\ntechnological advances: the NEXRAD advanced Doppler radar, the ASOS\nfor nearly continuous surface weather observations, GOES-Next satellites,\nand the improved computer-generated mesoscale products from the\nNational Meteorological Center. Each of the components of the new\nsystem provides a significant advance in the detail and timeliness of data\non a meteorological or geographical scale. Taken together they will\ncomprise a comprehensive system whose impact on aviation, agriculture,\npublic safety, and the general public is significantly greater than the contri-\nbutions of the individual parts. To achieve this potential for the public,\nmeteorologists of the NWS must have the capability to acquire, integrate,\nand process these data interactively in order to generate detailed and\naccurate products and to disseminate them in a timely fashion (see inset).\nThis vital step requires a comprehensive interactive communication and\nprocessing component with specialized algorithms to make it work. This\nis the function of AWIPS. It also should be remembered that the personnel\nsavings proposed as a result of modernization cannot be achieved without\nfull implementation of AWIPS.\nDENVER PRE-ADVANCED WEATHER\nINTERACTIVE PROCESSING SYSTEM PERFORMANCE\nThe Weather Service Forecast Office in Denver, Colorado, has been using\nthe Denver AWIPS Risk Reduction and Requirements Evaluation (DAR3E) unit,\nwhich might be called a pre-AWIPS unit, in an operational environment for\nalmost two years. The pre-AWIPS, computer-assisted warning messages it\ngenerates have permitted timely warnings not otherwise possible. Combined use\nof the Doppler weather radar and pre-AWIPS units has produced extremely accu-\nrate forecasts and warnings, such as during severe thunderstorms. For example,\nduring a record-breaking hailstorm in the Denver area on July 11, 1990, the pre-\nAWIPS unit was used in conjunction with Doppler radar to track the storm that\nproduced hail up to baseball size during its life cycle. The initial warning issued\nfor Boulder County provided from 30 minutes to nearly one hour leadtime for\nthe residents. The computer-assisted warning messages generated by the pre-\nAWIPS unit allowed the forecasters to stay ahead of the storm while quickly\nlisting the specific towns in its path. The unit also was extremely important in\nseparating the threat of tornadoes from the threat of hail by its ability to switch\nquickly between the radar velocity and reflectivity fields.\n6","Thus, the Committee is very concerned that budgetary considerations\nmay lead to additional slowing of AWIPS development. The Committee\nfeels that AWIPS should be accelerated in order to realize a full return on\nthe present investment in modernization of the NWS. The MARD will be\na true demonstration only if all of the complementary parts of the system\nare in place. Any delay in AWIPS will delay MARD or degrade the\nresults (see Figure 1).\nRecommendation: The full implementation of the Advanced\nWeather Interactive Processing System must be pursued with high\npriority and resources must be provided to accelerate its develop-\nment and implementation.\nBUDGET FOR IMPLEMENTATION\nIn addition to its concerns about having AWIPS on line in time to\nconvert the plethora of data from the new observing components into\nusable information, the Committee is seriously concerned that the currently\nprojected budgets, even in fiscal years 1992 and 1993, will not be adequate\nto cover the transition expenses necessary for implementation of the princi-\npal components of the modernization plan. Increased numbers of people\nfor the initial operation of the new system before the old system is phased\nout, furniture, training, and funds to develop new products are all essential\ningredients. Clearly, increased attention should be paid to improved\ndissemination techniques to ensure the timely delivery of new, more\ndetailed products. Funding for replacement of the 40-year-old upper air\nunits and for wind profilers must also be identified in the near future.\nThese are all areas that could endanger the modernization unless the leader-\nship in NOAA, the Department of Commerce, and the Office of Manage-\nment and Budget fully supports the entirety of the modernization. Without\neach and every important component of the modernized weather system,\nthe public will not be well served.\nThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric\nRecommendation:\nAdministration, the Department of Commerce, and the Office of\nManagement and Budget should recognize and fully support fund-\ning and staffing requirements during the implementation of the\nmodernization and associated restructuring, as well as the need for\n7","replacing aging equipment that is not a part of the current modern-\nization program.\nCOMMUNITY LIAISON AND EDUCATION\nUser education to provide the public with an understanding of the\nproducts the NWS will produce is important. Establishing strong liaison\nwith and ensuring rapid dissemination of warnings to the public and action\nagencies are necessary. Thus, the Committee again urges that most of the\nWeather Service Offices (WSOs) slated for closure be strongly considered\nfor continuance as one-person liaison and warning coordination stations\neven beyond the changeover and certification period. New people and new\nuser groups will need a close link with the NWS and guidance on the use\nof the new and improved products it will provide. The Committee reiter-\nates the following recommendation from its First Report.\nRecommendation: To maintain liaison with public institutions\nand to assist in community preparedness, the federal government\nshould consider retaining, with limited staff, most Weather Service\nOffices now planned for closure.\nCOLLAPSING INFRASTRUCTURE\nEveryone involved in supporting the NWS modernization must be\nreminded constantly that it is not merely the exchange of one set of instru-\nments for another to provide the same old products. An obsolete and\nfailing system is being replaced by a new integrated system that will move\nweather warning and prediction into a new era. It will provide more\nprecise, more timely, and more useful information than ever before avail-\nable. Lives and property will be saved in severe weather situations, and\nproductivity will be improved in all weather conditions.\nAs mentioned earlier, GOES 7 could fail at any time. The United\nStates did have three geostationary satellites available in orbit; now there\nis only one. The current WSR-57 radar equipment is being kept on line by\nscavenging parts from other radars and by the heroic efforts of engineers\nand technicians. In spite of this, the frequency of outages is growing. In\n1986 the WSR-57 radars experienced 28 outages causing 107 days of lost\nobservations. In 1991 these radars experienced 64 outages with 280 days\nof lost observations. These represent only outages that lasted 48 hours or\n8","more. The radars are experiencing major gear, bearing, and drive failures\nthat take as long as 10 to 20 days to repair. Outages are more frequent and\nlast for longer times because parts are unavailable. Radars are being\noperated at reduced power to minimize outages, which in turn reduces their\neffectiveness.\nThe Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) units at 256\nfield sites are deteriorating and approaching the end of their useful life.\nParts are no longer in production, and test equipment is no longer available\nfor these 1970s vintage computers and displays. Outages can be expected\nto increase, affecting the quality of weather warnings and forecasts.\nThe 1950s upper air sounding receivers can be maintained only by\nscavenging, and downtimes are increasing. The costs of expendables for\nsoundings have escalated.\nNone of these individual failures of the infrastructure is likely to bring\nabout the total collapse of the nation's weather service. However, the\ngrowing number of failures will cause a further degradation of the service\nthrough an increase in faulty storm warnings-or the absence of warn-\nings-and a reduction in the accuracy of weather forecasts.\nTHE BOTTOM LINE\nModernization is not a program that can be stretched out. Even if the\nschedules now projected are maintained in the future, there may be serious\ndegradation of current services due to failures of old equipment. Figure\n2 is a conceptual graph that illustrates the probable relative trends in\nquality of service to the nation by the NWS over the next decade or SO\nunder four scenarios. The area between the curve for the original modern-\nization plan and the other alternative curves represents lost capability and\ncould be expressed in terms of loss of life, property, and productivity.\n9","Original Modernization Plan\nModernization Plan with Stretch-out\nCurrent System with\nDegeneration\nCurrent System with Base Cuts\n199?\n200?\nTime\nFIGURE 2 Conceptual graph of probable relative trends in the quality\nof scenarios. service of the NWS over the next decade or so, under four program\n10","2\nFurther Analysis of Issues Raised\nin the First Report\nWith his letter of September 9, 1991 to Dr. Charles L. Hosler, Jr.,\nChairman of the National Weather Service Modernization Committee, Dr.\nJohn A. Knauss, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmo-\nsphere, forwarded the detailed response of the National Oceanic and\nAtmospheric Administration (NOAA) to the Committee's First Report. In\nhis letter, Dr. Knauss stated: \"I am pleased to see that the Committee\nmembers clearly understand the promise that the National Weather Service\n(NWS) modernization and associated restructuring program holds for a\ndramatic improvement in weather services to the Nation, endorse the\norganizational approach and implementation philosophy of the NWS, and\nrecognize the challenges that lie ahead. The number and specificity of the\nrecommendations in the report are clear indications of the depth and\nthoroughness of the Committee's work.\nWhile this response does not\nattempt to respond to every recommendation in the report, NOAA will give\neach recommendation serious consideration.\"\nThe following material reviews the responses of NOAA to the Commit-\ntee's broad recommendations in the summary of its First Report (NRC,\n1991) and addresses certain of the more detailed recommendations found\nin the main body of that report. Appendix B contains all of the recommen-\ndations in the First Report followed by NOAA's responses and the Com-\nmittee's analyses. The section titles in this chapter and in Appendix B are\nthe same as those in the First Report for ease of cross-reference. The\ndetailed response of NOAA was dated August 1991; where later develop-\nments are known to the Committee, they have been taken into account in\nthe Committee's analysis.\n11","The Committee views NOAA's response as forthright and detailed; it\ncovers many of the Committee's concerns. In this chapter, the Committee\nhighlights areas in which it still has concerns regarding NOAA's responses.\nThe Committee feels that it will have to monitor some of these areas of\nconcern closely, particularly where NOAA's ability to make progress\ndepends on decisions by the Department of Commerce, the Office of\nManagement and Budget, and the Congress.\nBROAD RECOMMENDATIONS\nThe First Report set forth four broad recommendations dealing with (1)\nthe need for adequate financial and personnel support for the moderniza-\ntion, (2) strengthening of management, (3) use of advisory panels, and (4)\nthe need to continue modernization after the modernized weather system\nnow being developed has been deployed, including the Next Generation\nWeather Radar (NEXRAD), the Automated Surface Observing System\n(ASOS), the Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental\nSatellite (GOES-Next), and the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing\nSystem (AWIPS).\nDespite the assertion of high priority in the NOAA response, the\nCommittee remains concerned that funding will be inadequate to meet the\nschedule in the National Implementation Plan (DOC, 1991). If the sched-\nule continues to be stretched out, there is an increasing likelihood that the\nquality of the present weather service will degrade, as discussed in Chapter\n1. A prime example is the apparent delay in the funding and contract\naward for a full start-up of AWIPS, the critical component for integrating\nall of the new data and for preparing warnings and forecasts.\nWith regard to the strengthening of management, the Committee has\nnoted the establishment of the new NOAA Systems Program Office (SPO)\nas discussed in Chapter 1. The portion of the Committee's recommenda-\ntion dealing with additional resources and personnel is discussed below in\nthe section \"Implementation Process.\"\nThe response of NOAA to the recommendation in the First Report with\nrespect to the use of technical advisory panels is inadequate. The Commit-\ntee recognizes that panels have been used on an ad hoc basis in the past but\nreiterates its recommendation for standing panels composed of outside\nexperts for each of the major components of the new system.\nRegarding the Committee's earlier recommendation on the introduction\nof additional observational components beyond those now approved for\n12","procurement, NOAA will require a strong commitment, top-level support,\nand carefully phased spending plans to continue modernization, for exam-\nple, through the addition of profilers, a permanent lightning detection net-\nwork, and a replacement for the present upper air observation system.\nOBSERVATION COMPONENTS\nThe Committee is encouraged that the NEXRAD program now appears\nto be back on track. Committee members were impressed, during site\nvisits, with the operation of the Norman, Oklahoma, and Sterling, Virginia\n(near Washington, D.C.), radars even though they were still undergoing\nengineering tests. The response of NOAA concerning algorithm develop-\nment, improved precipitation processing, training, and education is\ncommendable.\nThe response of NOAA on observations to supplement those from\nASOS is positive; the Committee looks forward to learning of the progress\nmade in obtaining these observations.\nThe Committee supports the decision of the Secretary of Commerce to\nproceed with the current GOES-Next program by completing and launching\na thoroughly tested, specification-compliant GOES-I, and to provide a\nbackup to the present GOES 7 by using the European Meteosat 3 geosta-\ntionary weather satellite, moved from viewing Europe to covering the\nwestern Atlantic and the United States. The communications link between\nthe NOAA satellite station for GOES at Wallops, Virginia, and the Met-\neosat station in Darmstadt, Germany, established to facilitate this move,\nshould benefit both the United States and Europe in future cooperative\noperations. The Committee is still concerned about the possible loss of\nsatellite service in the future because the funding of the GOES-Next geosta-\ntionary satellite program is too limited. A minimum of two fully opera-\ntional satellites in orbit, plus one available to be launched and a fourth\nnearing completion (in case of a launch failure), is required to ensure\ncontinuity of operational coverage.\nWith respect to the climate data record, NWS proposes to compare one\nyear of observations from a subset of 16 ASOS units to be deployed in the\n\"central United States.\" The Committee believes that this approach is\ninadequate to test for bias in the record in other meteorological regimes,\nsuch as desert, coastal, and mountainous. Concerning climate in general,\nit is not clear that there is a NOAA-wide plan for the acquisition and\narchiving of climate data from all sources, including requirements for\n13","parameters, accuracies, locations, what is to be saved, etc. More attention\nshould be given to the synergistic use of all of NOAA's modernized\nobserving units for climate monitoring. Additional preliminary findings on\ndata for climate studies from the National Research Council's (NRC)\nClimate Research Committee of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and\nClimate appear in Appendix C.\nNEW INFORMATION COMPONENTS\nThe Committee is increasingly concerned that funding for AWIPS may\nbe inadequate for NOAA to pursue this essential program vigorously and\nwithout further delays. Committee members were impressed with AWIPS\nresearch at NOAA Environmental Research Laboratories as manifested in\nthe pre-AWIPS units operating in Boulder, Colorado, as well as at the\nNWS forecast offices in Denver, Colorado, and Norman, Oklahoma 1 The\nneed for AWIPS is compelling, and program implementation should not\ninvolve high-risk developments. The NWS meteorologists must have the\ncapability to acquire, integrate, and process all the data to be available in\nthe modernized system in order to generate and disseminate in a timely\nmanner detailed and accurate warnings and other products. Full AWIPS\ncapability will not be available in the MARD, which will compromise the\nresults because of delayed development of software for full data integration\nand interpretation. The Committee is very concerned about recent delays\nin the implementation of AWIPS. Award of the developmental-phase\ncontract has slipped as much as one year from the date projected by NOAA\nin August 1991. This will further delay the MARD and the implementa-\ntion\nof\nthe\nmodernization.\nPersonnel savings proposed as a result of\nmodernization cannot be achieved without full implementation of AWIPS.\nThe Committee also remains concerned about the adequacy of plans for the\ndissemination of data and information to the private sector.\nNEW STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\nThe Committee recommended in its First Report that the Department\nof Commerce should carefully reconsider its decision to conduct a two-\ntiered demonstration of the network of Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)\nduring MARD. The objective of the Department of Commerce was to\n1 See insets, Chapter 1.\n2 See Figure 1, page 2.\n14","demonstrate that a national network of about 50 WFOs, compared to the\nplanned 115, would be adequate, thus saving money. The Committee is\ngratified to learn that the general structure of MARD has not been\nchanged. It remains convinced that 115 WFOs are near the minimum\nnumber required for an effective weather service in the United States.\nThe response of NOAA regarding hydrology risk reduction activities\nat Norman and Tulsa, Oklahoma, is quite positive. The Committee looks\nforward to examining the new plan for hydrometeorological service opera-\ntions (NWS Office of Hydrology, 1991), particularly with regard to other\nrecommendations in the First Report, including the use of improved quanti-\ntative precipitation forecasts and associated uncertainties in hydrologic\nmodels, cross-training of meteorologists and hydrologists, development of\nsoftware for AWIPS work stations in the River Forecast Centers (RFCs),\nand the serious issue of the validity of using the same NEXRAD precipi-\ntation algorithm in all conditions and locations.\nNEW AND STRONGER COLLABORATION\nIn its First Report the Committee urged new and stronger collabora-\ntion (1) with the university community, through the location of WFOs on\nuniversity campuses and through collaboration in education and research;\n(2) with the private sector, by strengthening the use of Constituent Affairs\nOfficers, planning for the dissemination of data and products to the private\nsector, and noting the impact of the proposed increase in user fees; and (3)\nwith public institutions, by ensuring adequate community preparedness in\nanticipation of dangerous weather. Although NOAA's response is general-\nly positive, questions remain concerning the scope of collaboration and the\nstrength of its resolve.\nAlthough NOAA plans to collocate nine WFOs with universities, the\nCommittee understands that there are procurement issues to be faced in\nother places. In some instances, a difficult choice must be made among\ncompetitive proposals; in others, a perceived lack of competition may be\na concern. The Committee believes that much more can be accomplished\nif top-level attention is devoted to the issue; the benefits to be derived\nwarrant this attention.\n1 See Appendix A, page 38 for a summary in the section \"New and Stronger\nCollaboration.\"\n15","The early and dramatic success of the Cooperative Program for Opera-\ntional Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET) provides convinc-\ning evidence for this view. The COMET outreach program has already led\nto 19 cooperative research projects located at 17 universities throughout the\nnation. These projects are addressing a wide range of forecasting problems\nof immediate and significant concern to the NWS. They provide excellent\nopportunities for students and faculties to contribute to improved forecast-\ning techniques. These opportunities should lead to more motivated facul-\nties and better-trained students, many of whom will serve as NWS employ-\nees in the future. The projects should also improve relationships and\ncollaboration between the universities and the NWS. Moreover, these\naccomplishments are being achieved with a very modest budget, which\ndemonstrates the leverage that can be obtained from such a cooperative\nprogram.\nBoth the COMET program and the location of WFOs on university\ncampuses are very significant efforts for the NWS, and the Committee\nreemphasizes their importance. Moreover, the Committee believes that the\nNWS would derive significant long-term benefits from a broader and more\nintense effort to collaborate with the academic and industrial communities\nby sponsoring research and the development of new techniques. It would\nbe able to tap a wider reservoir of new ideas, and the broader community\nwould become aware of both the challenges and the opportunities involved\nin operating at the level of sophistication expected of the modernized NWS.\nWith respect to the private sector, NOAA's intent to improve com-\nmunication and coordination seems appropriate. The response is not clear,\nhowever, concerning new resources. Nevertheless, the Committee is\npleased to learn that a Constituent Affairs Officer is being assigned to each\nof the four NWS Regional Offices in the contiguous states. This officer\nshould act as an ombudsman for the private sector within each region.\nThe Committee also recommended in the First Report that the commu-\nnity preparedness function at Weather Service Offices (WSOs) slated for\nclosure be retained during the changeover. NOAA responded that main-\ntaining a local presence in most communities with an NWS office planned\nfor closure is under consideration. The Committee is encouraged by this\nand hopes that it may still be possible, with minimal staffing, to keep these\noffices open for some time in the future.\n1 See also Chapter 1, page 8, \"Community Liaison and Education.\"\n16","IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS\nThe Committee strongly reaffirms its recommendations in the First\nReport dealing with (1) the need for overall policies and procedures for the\ndevelopment of major components of the system and (2) the need to ensure\ndata security. With the recent establishment of the new NOAA Systems\nProgram Office, the Committee will monitor how well these two recom-\nmendations are being addressed. Software documentation is of critical\nimportance, given the long time during which these new components will\nbe in use. The Committee expects to study system security and resiliency\nin the near future. Both are critical in all components, but AWIPS is\nparticularly vulnerable to improper intervention.\nIn its First Report, the Committee recommended the temporary aug-\nmentation of staff during implementation of the modernization. Although\nit may be too early, no significant augmentation is apparent. However, the\nCommittee is encouraged by NOAA's response that expansion of transition\nstaff is being implemented and that additional resources will continue to be\nsought to supplement existing staff during the modernization transition.\nRegarding its concern about plans to staff WFOs at night with only one\nmeteorologist, the Committee is pleased with NOAA's assurance that the\nreduced staffing level will not be implemented unless and until the technol-\nogy and skills necessary to support operation with a single forecaster have\nbeen demonstrated satisfactorily.\nThe Committee continued to work with the NWS on the certification\nplan throughout 1991. Indeed, certification is the main topic of this report\n(see Chapter 3). The Committee looks forward to NOAA's response to the\nrecommendations presented there.\n17","3\nThe Certification Process\nand Requirements\nThe certification process specified by law is a critical part of the\nsequence of events involved in modernizing and restructuring the National\nWeather Service (NWS). Certification requires demonstration that there\nwill be no degradation in services as a result of closing, consolidating,\nautomating, or relocating any existing NWS office. The Committee has\nexamined the preliminary plans of the NWS for certification, to the extent\nthey are currently formulated, and offers its advice and recommendations\nhere.\nIn summary, the Committee believes that the NWS has made consider-\nable progress in the development of a certification process that meets the\nrequirements of the law. Moreover, the certification process offers\nconsiderable additional opportunities and benefits to the NWS if that\nprocess is carefully and adequately structured. Such structuring will\nrequire a precise specification of goals, process, and expected results.\nIndeed, the results of the certification process may be expected to lead to\nimproved service and greater appreciation of the benefits and value of\nNWS efforts. In this respect, the Committee is impressed by the plans of\nthe NWS to consult with the users of its products and services throughout\nthe nation regarding the modernization.\n1 The Committee views its role regarding certification as reviewing and com-\nmenting on the government's plans and proposed process in accordance with the law, not\ndrafting the plans or process. Further, it is the position of the National Research Council\nthat it is able to review only the generic process, not each individual certification.\n18","LEGAL REQUIREMENT FOR CERTIFICATION\nCongressional concern about the impacts of replacing existing NWS\noffices with the new array of Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), as pro-\nposed in the NWS restructuring associated with modernization, led to the\ncertification requirements in Title IV of Public Law 100-685 (U.S. Con-\ngress, 1988). Two sections of this law are of particular relevance:\nSection 408 requires the Secretary of Commerce \"not to close, consoli-\ndate, automate, or relocate any\noffice\" unless the Secretary certifies\nto the Congress \"that such action will not result in any degradation of\nweather services provided to the affected area.\" It further states,\n\"Such certification shall include--\n(1) a detailed comparison of the services provided to the affected\narea and the services to be provided after such action;\n(2) any recent or expected modernization of National Weather\nService operations which will enhance services in the affected\narea; and\n(3) evidence, based upon operational demonstration of modernized\nNational Weather Service operations, which supports the conclu-\nsion that no degradation in services will result from such action.\"\nSection 407(b) states that \" the National Implementation Plan shall\ninclude\nspecial measures to test, evaluate and demonstrate key\nelements of the Modernized National Weather Service operations prior\nto national implementation, including a multi-station operational dem-\nonstration which tests the performance of all components of the mod-\nernization in an integrated manner for a sustained period\n\"\nThe Modernization and Associated Restructuring Demonstration\n(MARD), planned for a period of one year in the Midwest, is the NWS\nprimary response to the requirement of Section 407(b). The NWS\nconsiders the MARD to be the foundation of the certification process.\nCERTIFICATION ISSUES\nIn the Committee's view, four significant issues are associated with the\ncertification process as specified by the law. The first issue is whether the\nrequirement for certification should be viewed as an impediment to effect-\ning the modernization and restructuring of the NWS or whether it should\nbe viewed as an opportunity to demonstrate benefits and improved services.\nThe second is the level of effort that should be invested in formal planning\n19","and structuring of the certification process. The third issue is the extent to\nwhich the process should be unique for each site and thus the extent to\nwhich it should demonstrate improvements in service by using verification\nstatistics from individual locations or from additional regional experiments\nmodeled on the MARD. The fourth concerns the specification of verifica-\ntion statistics and the effort to be devoted to gathering and analyzing them.\nCERTIFICATION AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE NWS\nThe requirement for certification should be embraced by the NWS as\nan opportunity to demonstrate improvements in service, to identify and\neffect additional improvements, and to secure greater public confidence,\neven though the legislation specifies only that NWS actions \"will not result\nin any degradation of weather services\n\"\nTaking a positive approach to the certification will, in the Committee's\nview, provide a number of opportunities for the NWS. First, such an\napproach will provide convincing evidence to the executive and legislative\nbranches of the federal government that the investments in modernization\nand restructuring have produced dramatically improved services and bene-\nfits. Some examples of improved services are given in Chapter 1. Second,\nit will increase public confidence in the NWS and its products. Third, it\nwill enhance the morale of employees by demonstrating their effectiveness.\nFourth, it will point the way to further improvements in service and\nproducts, and will provide justification for the expenditures required to\neffect them.\nAlthough intended to demonstrate at least no degradation in present\nservices, planning for an effective certification process should identify the\nuseful functions that it also can serve, both for the NWS and for its constit-\nuency.\nRecommendation: The National Weather Service should focus its\nplanning for the certification process on identifying the many\npotential benefits of the process for both the National Weather\nService and its constituency and by setting specific goals that will\nrealize those benefits. The certification process should be designed\n(1) to acquire information on specific cost savings and economic\nand other benefits to users of weather information and forecasts,\n(2) to identify user needs that are now inadequately served, (3) to\nanticipate the need for continuing attention to technology life\n20","cycles and further modernization, and (4) to ensure the credibility\nof the certification.\nCERTIFICATION PROCESS\nThe NWS has made considerable progress in the development of a\ncertification process that meets the requirements of Public Law 100-685.\nHowever, the Committee believes that additional effort is appropriate now\nto structure the certification process itself to be a positive force by demon-\nstrating improvements in service and thus secure greater public confidence\nin the NWS. The key to success lies in identification of the specific infor-\nmation that will be collected and analyzed. Most significantly, the control\nof the collection and analysis process should be specified. Careful planning\nand control are essential to ensure high-quality results.\nIn short, the Committee is arguing that the certification process must\nbe thought through in detail. Further, it believes that the process, along\nwith the method of information control, must adhere to a carefully speci-\nfied standard (see outline in inset).\nThe Committee recognizes that developing plans for certification is a\nchallenging task, but one that is essential to the success of the process.\nMoreover, developing detailed plans for certification according to this\noutline will be an iterative procedure, with goals and strategies evolving as\nthe implications of implementing procedural steps become clear and are\nassimilated in the higher-order descriptions of the process (inset outline\nitems 1, 2, and 11).\nThis approach will have the advantage of producing a generic specifica-\ntion of the certification process, as well as templates for implementing it\nand describing the results. This is especially important because responsi-\nbility for effecting the process will fall principally upon the Meteorolo-\ngist-in-Charge (MIC) at each new WFO being commissioned. The interac-\ntion of the MICs and their staffs with users and user groups is especially\ncritical and must be addressed in developing the standard for the certifi-\ncation process.\nRecommendation: The certification process should be thought\nthrough in detail and structured to be a positive force. It is essen-\ntial to identify the specific information that will be collected and\nanalyzed, and the process and information control scheme should\nadhere to a carefully specified standard.\n21","DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR CERTIFICATION\nThe following outline is a useful checklist for preparing the detailed plan\nand standard for certification:\n1. Specify the goals and benefits of the certification process.\n2. Develop an abstract or overview of the process, indicating the strategy for\nattaining each goal.\n3. Specify the conditions that must be satisfied before the process can begin (the\nentry criteria).\n4. Specify the input data and information to the process and the measures that\nwill quantify performance of the process itself; specify the interactions with user\ngroups to be used in collecting data and information.\n5. Describe the procedures that will be applied to analyze and interpret the data\nand information.\n6. Specify the roles and responsibilities of various organizations and individuals\nin obtaining and analyzing the information.\n7. Specify the outputs, products, and results to be obtained from the certification\nprocess and the analysis of the information.\n8. Specify the evidence needed to ensure that the outputs conform to their\nspecifications and that the process has performed as expected.\n9. Describe the sequence of procedures for feeding back measures of process\nperformance, progress reports, and output evidence to the person or entity\nresponsible for the success of the certification process.\n10. Specify the conditions that must be satisfied before the process is considered\ncomplete (the exit criteria).\n11. As a summary of these steps, describe the minimum essential information\nthat is needed to plan, schedule, stage, initiate, operate, conclude, and evaluate\nthe effectiveness of the certification process.\nNote: adapted from IEEE Computer Society, 1989.\nLOCAL EMPHASIS IN CERTIFICATION\nThe requirement for certification might be satisfied by the NWS\nverifying no degradation in service at a location being certified by drawing\nan analogy to the results obtained in other locations or by using local\nresults to compare the old and new systems. Current preliminary plans of\nthe NWS are to base the certification of individual weather offices on the\n22","results of the MARD, a major demonstration to be conducted for one year\nin the Midwest; some more limited regional demonstrations in different\nclimate regimes; and on verification statistics collected at stations that have\nalready been certified, rather than using verification statistics on the perfor-\nmance of the new office to be certified. This approach will allow certifica-\ntion of service in a specific area shortly after the Advanced Weather\nInteractive Processing System (AWIPS), the last scheduled component of\nthe current modernization, has been installed in the last WFO with respon-\nsibility for part of the area of concern. However, this approach precludes\nthe use of local verification statistics, except some warning statistics. The\nmajor justification for this approach is the NWS argument, with which the\nCommittee agrees, that verification statistics must be collected for at least\none year to be meaningful.\nAn alternative to the demonstration-by-analogy approach is the use of\nlocal verification statistics. Collecting local verification statistics for at\nleast one year would require parallel operations of existing stations and\nnew WFOs for extended periods. According to NWS estimates, extending\nthe time between commissioning of the AWIPS at a new WFO and certif-\nication, to allow the use of local verification statistics, would increase the\ncost of the transition by some $56 million.\nThe advantage of local verification is that certification can be made\nmore convincing by providing local emphasis through the monitoring of\nlocal experience with the new system: (1) local verification statistics would\nbe more convincing to local users and legislators, (2) they would stimulate\nimproved service locally; and (3) their collection and interpretation should\npromote stronger interaction with local user groups. These benefits might\noutweigh the additional costs incurred in providing parallel services.\nHowever, parallel operations present the difficult issue of determining\nwhether the services provided to the public would be furnished by the\npresent offices or by the new offices equipped with the latest technology.\nIn either case, one set of products would be prepared for the record rather\nthan for public consumption. Those who prepared them would be deprived\nof this principal stimulation and motivation enjoyed by NWS employees.\nOther alternatives are possible as well. The NWS now plans to supple-\nment the MARD with some additional demonstrations at sites typifying\n1 As stated in Chapter 1, the AWIPS is critical to the modernization and satisfac-\ntory conduct of the MARD; MARD is to be the demonstration called for in Public Law\n100-685 as one component of the certification process.\n23","other regions of the country, such as desert, coastal, and mountainous\nareas. The Committee agrees that these additional demonstrations are\nessential. Another alternative would be for Congress to permit the NWS\nto proceed with its plans to restructure the national configuration of offices\nbased on the MARD results, with improvements in the region served by\neach WFO to be demonstrated a year or more after it is in full operation.\nThis approach would provide a stimulus to both local forecasters and NWS\nmanagers to ensure that the new WFO's services are an improvement over\nthose previously available.\nRecommendation: The Committee believes that significantly\ngreater consideration should be given to the verification alterna-\ntives by the National Weather Service. The Committee prefers the\nalternative of restructuring the national configuration of offices\nbased on the Modernization and Associated Restructuring Demon-\nstration results, with improvements in each affected area served by\na Weather Forecast Office to be demonstrated a year or more after\nit has been in full operation. Nevertheless, the Committee is aware\nthat this would necessitate a change in the law. Except for its\ncost, the Committee would prefer the local verification approach.\nClearly, the advantages and disadvantages of the various ap-\nproaches must be explicated and evaluated by the National\nWeather Service.\nVERIFICATION AND INTERACTION WITH USER GROUPS\nClearly, the objective of the modernization and restructuring of the\nNational Weather Service is to provide improved weather services to a\nwide range of users. The certification process can be viewed as both an\nopportunity and a requirement to demonstrate that this improvement is\nbeing realized. The Committee believes that the new technology, new\noffice structure, and renewed emphasis on training and professional skills\nwill indeed produce greatly improved weather services and severe weather\nwarnings. Nevertheless, it will be essential to demonstrate those improve-\nments quantitatively and convincingly. Thus, a key aspect of planning for\ncertification is to specify appropriate verification statistics and processes\nand to design useful interactions with users and user groups.\nThe Committee offers the following observations to assist the NWS in\ndeveloping its plan for verification as part of certification.\n24","The NWS serves a broad range of users and user groups with a re-\nmarkable range of general and specific forecasts and warnings. To\nprovide comprehensible results, it is essential that data and information\ngathered for certification be organized by both product groups and user\ngroups. One might begin with a two-dimensional matrix, listing user\ngroups (e.g., general public, agriculture, construction, municipalities,\nemergency managers, aviation) as the columns and products (e.g.,\nfreeze warnings, strong-wind warnings, terminal forecasts, maximum\nand minimum temperature forecasts) as the rows. The importance of\neach product to each user group could be assessed on a tripartite scale\n(say, of slight, moderate, or critical interest). A selection of products\nof critical interest to key user groups in each affected area¹ would\nprovide a subset to be emphasized in certification. Moreover, this\nmatrix approach could serve as the basis for interaction with various\nuser groups, to refine the NWS's understanding of their needs and\nexpectations, and to refine the users' understanding of what they can\nrealistically expect to receive. Part of this process could be an analysis\nof the changes to be expected on completion of the modernization and\nassociated restructuring, compared to the premodernization era. Any\nweak points identified could be examined to determine how they could\nbe ameliorated.\nVerification statistics collected for the certification should concentrate\non warnings plus short-range and midrange forecasts; that is, the first\n12 to 24 hours should receive the greatest emphasis, 2 with less empha-\nsis on 48-hour forecasts.\nThe severe weather watch and warning verification program, as now\noperated by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, includes the\nvariables necessary to validate the expected improvement in severe\nweather watches and warnings. Comparisons of watches and warnings\nbefore and after implementation of modernization should provide the\ndata necessary to support certification.\nVerification statistics for routine forecasts should emphasize events and\nextremes, rather than averages. Accuracy and timing of severe weath-\ner warnings are of first importance. Rather than comparing mean\n1 The area affected by the closing, consolidation, automation, or relocation of an\nNWS office.\n2 This is the time range of warnings and forecasts that will benefit most from the\nnew technology being introduced in the NWS modernization.\n25","errors of temperature forecasts, it would be more useful to analyze and\nverify predictions of maximum and minimum temperatures or of the\nmagnitude and time of large temperature changes. Similarly, verifica-\ntion of precipitation forecasts should concentrate on rewarding accura-\ncy in predicting the timing and intensity of events and penalizing\ngeneralities such as \"showers today and tonight.\"\nA comparison of forecast language before and after modernization\nactions should also demonstrate that forecast products have become\nmore useful by becoming more specific and more timely. Verification\nof such forecasts will require schemes based on timing and intensity,\nas suggested in the preceding paragraph.\nThe NWS should give renewed attention to the very difficult problem\nof evaluating aviation forecasts. The modernization should produce\nbetter terminal, route, and area aviation forecasts and more timely\namendments as changing conditions become more accurately and\npromptly detected and evaluated. Meaningful ways to demonstrate\nthese expected improvements should be developed.\nSome measures of the timeliness with which observations, forecasts,\nand warnings are delivered to users should be included in the statistics\nto support certification. Modernized WFOs should demonstrate quite\nclearly that the speed of delivery of key products is greatly improved.\nThe Committee is mindful of the fact that a verification program such\nas it suggests above is more extensive and sophisticated than that now\ncontemplated by the NWS. Designing and implementing such a program\nwill require thought and considerable effort. In the Committee's view, the\nbenefits will justify this additional investment in the certification process.\nRecommendation: The Committee suggests a more extensive and\nsophisticated verification program than that now contemplated by\nthe National Weather Service because it will be essential to demon-\nstrate the improvements resulting from the modernization quantita-\ntively and convincingly. Appropriate verification statistics and\nprocesses, such as those suggested by the Committee, need to be\nspecified, including their application and importance to various\ncategories of users.\n26","DISSEMINATING THE RESULTS\nA final and critical part of the planning for certification should address\nissues related to relations between the public and the NWS. The NWS has\nalready initiated contacts with user groups and government officials at the\nstate and local level. Since the Committee believes that the modernization\nwill produce dramatically improved service and enhanced public benefits,\nit also believes that the NWS must convincingly demonstrate these\nimprovements to the public.\nVerification statistics have been gathered routinely by the NWS for\ndecades, but the results are rarely seen by the public. A primary reason\nis that most current procedures are technical and not easily explained to the\npublic. The consequence is that the public relies on intuition to form a\nsubjective opinion, one that discounts many successes because of an occa-\nsional error.\nRecommendation: It is critical that the certification process\ninvolve interaction with users and user groups, first to determine\nwhat they consider their needs to be and then to demonstrate that\nthose needs are actually being met. A public relations program\naimed at providing the media with factual summaries of forecast\naccuracies in easily comprehensible terms should be developed and\nmade a part of the responsibilities of each Weather Forecast\nOffice.\n27","References\nDOC1. 1989. Strategic Plan for the Modernization and Associated Re-\nstructuring of the National Weather Service. National Weather Service,\nNOAA, Silver Spring, Md. 24 pp.\nDOC. 1991. National Implementation Plan for the Modernization and\nAssociated Restructuring of the National Weather Service. National Weath-\ner Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Md. 132 pp + app.\nIEEE2 Computer Society. 1989. Draft Standard for a Process Standard,\nversion 1989.01, Software Engineering Standards Subcommittee, Novem-\nber 10.\nNRC3. 1991. Toward a New National Weather Service--A First Report.\nNational Weather Service Modernization Committee. National Academy\nPress, Washington, D.C. 67 pp.\nNWS. 1990. Briefing of NRC National Weather Service Modernization\nCommittee (viewgraph IMPSCHD6.GEM, 08-17-89). Washington, D.C.\nFebruary 22.\nNWS. 1992. From Master Transition Schedule as of January 1992.\n1 U.S. Department of Commerce\n2 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.\n3 National Research Council\n28","NWS Office of Hydrology. 1991. Hydrometeorological Service Operations\nfor the 1990's. National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Md. 145\npp + 14 app.\nU.S. Congress. 1988. National Aeronautics and Space Administration\nAuthorization Act, Fiscal Year 1989; Title IV-Authorization of Appro-\npriations for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 100th\nCong., 1st sess., P.L. 100-685, sec. 407 and 408. Washington, D.C.\n29","","Appendix A\nSummary\nSince World War II, significant improvements have been made in the\nprediction of large-scale weather features (high pressure areas, large\nstorms) owing to increased knowledge of atmospheric processes, new\nobservational techniques such as radar and satellites, and the advent of\nlarge computers and numerical prediction models. However, improve-\nments in the forecasting and warning of smaller-scale phenomena (hurri-\ncanes, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods) have been less\ndramatic. Yet recent scientific advances in the understanding of these\nphenomena and new capabilities to observe and rapidly process information\non these smaller scales (from a few to several hundred miles) now permit\na major advance in weather service to the nation.\nAs a result, the United States has launched a bold and innovative\nprogram to modernize the National Weather Service (NWS), a major\ncomponent of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\n(NOAA) of the Department of Commerce. The modernization involves\nnew observational technology, powerful new information and forecast\nsystems, and a new organizational structure. It promises to provide a\ndramatic improvement in weather services to the nation, including more\naccurate and timely predictions of those weather events that have regular\nand dramatic impact on both private and public activities.\nModernization of the NWS thus offers great opportunities to the nation,\nbut it is also a complex undertaking. The National Weather Service\nThis is a reproduction from the First Report of the Committee on National\n1\nWeather Service Modernization (NRC, 1991).\n31","Modernization Committee1 of the National Research Council (NRC)\nendorses the organizational approach and implementation philosophy of the\nNWS, but recognizes the challenges ahead; success will depend on the\ncontinuity of strong leadership, of good management, and of adequate\nresources. Although the Committee is impressed with the progress made\nby the NWS, it is also cognizant of the commitment required by the federal\ngovernment, NOAA, and the NWS to complete successfully the modern-\nization and revitalization of the nation's weather services. The recommen-\ndations presented in this report are intended to be supportive of the national\neffort and to increase the possibilities of success.\nThe success of the National Weather Service modernization re-\nquires an increased commitment of resources and personnel to the\nmany scientific, technical, and organizational challenges involved.\nParsimony now will be expensive later.\nThe National Weather Service modernization requires the develop-\nment and implementation of complex observation and information\nsystems. Rigorous and creative management of the overall structure\nand of the individual components of each of these systems is essential\nfor success. The system management capabilities of the National\nWeather Service must be strengthened through the commitment of\nadditional resources and personnel.\nModernization of the National Weather Service involves a variety\nof scientific and technical issues and challenges. The National Weather\nService and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nshould create technical advisory panels for each of the major systems\nthat contribute to the technological modernization. However, these\npanels cannot substitute for the additional resources and personnel\nrecommended.\nModernization must continue beyond the implementation of systems\nnow being procured. Provision should be made to incorporate data\nfrom additional new technology, such as wind profilers and a lightning\ndetection network, and to take advantage of scientific developments as\n1\nAt the request of NOAA, the National Research Council established a review committee\non the modernization and associated restructuring of the NWS. This first report of the\nCommittee presents the results of its work during 1990. The Committee will continue its\nreview and will present additional findings and recommendations in subsequent reports.\n32","well as improved computational and information systems as they\nbecome available.\nNEW OBSERVATION SYSTEMS\nThe Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system utilizes\nDoppler radar technology to provide improved estimates of precipitation\namounts; to detect the transition between rain and snow; to track storm\nmovement and intensity; and to allow for earlier detection of the precursors\nof tornadic activity, thunderstorm development, and other important weath-\ner phenomena. The NEXRAD program is currently in a limited production\nphase. A number of software problems have been encountered and are in\nthe process of being resolved. The Committee cannot judge how well\nNEXRAD will meet its technical and functional requirements until the test\nand evaluation phase has been completed.\nSteps should be taken to ensure the continued development and\nimprovement of Next Generation Weather Radar processing algorithms\nas new developments and operational experience accumulate. The\nNational Weather Service should develop a continuing comprehensive\ntraining and education program so that the skills of the Next Genera-\ntion Weather Radar maintenance and operational staffs, as well as the\nmeteorologists and hydrologists, reflect the ever-changing state of the\nart.\nThe Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) network will\nprovide the basic data required for severe weather, flash flood, and river\nforecasting, as well as for support of aviation operations. However,\nalthough the ASOS has some clear advantages over the present surface\nobservation method in operational weather forecasting and warning, serious\nconcerns exist about its use in monitoring climate as discussed in the\nfollowing section. The ASOS network will substantially increase the\nspatial resolution of surface observations, but even greater resolution will\nbe needed for additional improvement in small-scale weather forecasting\nand warnings in the future.\nThe National Weather Service should identify other local and state\nsurface observation resources; initiate efforts to acquire existing data\n33","and, as feasible, to improve the quality and quantity of the data; and\npromote the development and installation of additional local and state\nnetworks in data-sparse regions.\nThe Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satel-\nlites (GOES-Next), now under development, will allow higher-quality and\nmore frequent atmospheric soundings and cloud images to be obtained\nsimultaneously (only one or the other can be obtained from the current\nGOES). These advances are very important for improved prediction of\nsevere storms and flash floods. Improvements now being developed in the\nfree atmosphere temperature and humidity soundings acquired by NOAA\npolar orbiting satellites will also contribute to improved longer-range\nnumerical forecasts. Development and funding problems in the GOES-\nNext program may result in a delay until mid-1994 or later in reestablish-\nment of the full two-GOES constellation, should there be a launch or\nspacecraft failure. The NOAA polar satellite system is in better condition,\nbut continued funding constraints have decreased the availability of re-\nplacement satellites, thereby raising the threat of an interruption in observa-\ntions in the event of launch or premature satellite failure.\nThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the De-\npartment of Commerce, the Office of Management and Budget, and\nthe Congress should provide more realistic budgeting and funding for\nthe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational\nsatellite systems in order to realize the full potential benefits of the\nNational Weather Service modernization and associated restructuring.\nViability and Integrity of the Climate Data Record\nThe nation's climate record is a valuable resource whose viability must\nbe maintained. Climate information is used in the design of structures,\ndrought assessments, agricultural planning and assessment, and water\nmanagement. The possibility of climate change as a result of human\nactivity emphasizes the need for a data record from which climate trends\nover the coming decades can be determined unambiguously. The NWS is\nthe primary organization engaged in observing and recording in situ weath-\ner information in the United States. It must ensure the accuracy and\nintegrity of the weather information it gathers to fulfill its operational\nrequirements; however, the Committee is concerned about the adequacy of\n34","NWS data to meet NOAA's climate requirements. Modernization and\nrestructuring of the NWS will affect the viability and integrity of the U.S.\nclimate data record, but it will also provide the opportunity to enhance this\nrecord significantly through the availability of new kinds of data; such\nopportunities should be examined by NOAA. Because the NWS has\ntraditionally viewed its role as collecting observed data to prepare forecasts\nand warnings, data quality has been determined largely by these needs.\nHowever, the accuracy, continuity, and consistency required of observed\ndata for climate studies are more stringent. The Committee argues that the\nNWS must be concerned that its data satisfy the needs for consistent\nclimate records as well as for forecasting. Because NWS modernization\nplans give little attention to the issues of data management and the quality\nof the climate record, the Committee recommends the following:\nThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration should set\nthe requirements for the climate data to be derived from the modern-\nized National Weather Service observations, establish the role of the\nNational Weather Service in generating these data, and ensure the\navailability of the resources necessary for this purpose. The National\nWeather Service at all levels should recognize its responsibility to\nacquire a major portion of the national climate record; the preservation\nof data quality for climatic purposes should have equal priority with its\nmission of providing forecasts.\nNEW INFORMATION SYSTEMS\nImproved information systems are critical to the NWS modernization\nand associated restructuring. The key component of each modernized\nWeather Forecast Office (WFO) will be the Advanced Weather Interactive\nProcessing System (AWIPS) supported by its associated communications\nsystem. The AWIPS at each WFO will be the information system used by\nthe meteorologist on duty to prepare warnings and forecasts and to dissemi-\nnate these products rapidly to the public and other users. The Committee\nis favorably impressed with the prototypes of AWIPS and the capabilities\nthat are afforded to meteorologists and hydrologists in producing warnings\nand forecasts. However, it is concerned with the steady slippage of the\nschedule for full implementation. Without this system, WFOs will be\nunable to use the new observational technology in an effective manner or\nto reduce staff through restructuring while increasing service effectiveness.\nAttention also must be given to providing adequate access by private\n35","meteorologists and weather services, and by universities to raw data and\ninformation from AWIPS.\nThe Administration and Congress should take the necessary steps\nto maintain the implementation schedule for the Advanced Weather\nInteractive Processing System and its associated communications. The\nNational Weather Service, in consort with the university community\nand private sector users of National Weather Service data and informa-\ntion, should develop viable plans for broad access to the raw data and\ninformation that will become available via the Advanced Weather\nInteractive Processing System, keeping in mind the benefits such col-\nlaboration can provide to the government, the public, and the private\nsector.\nImproved numerical forecast and guidance products, with higher space\nand time resolution, are required by the WFOs to improve their forecasts\nand warnings of small-scale weather features. In turn, these improvements\nnecessitate continuing enhancement of computer capability and refinement\nof atmospheric models at the National Meteorological Center.\nNEW STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\nA major purpose of the NWS modernization is to improve dramatically\nthe short-term forecasts of significant weather events and warnings of\nsevere weather. To achieve this aim, meteorologists and hydrologists must\nbe able to observe their service domains continuously and must have a\nworkload commensurate with the area covered, the short response time\nnecessary for effective warning, and the effective range of available obser-\nvations (e.g., Next Generation Weather Radar). These human factors must\nbe paramount in evaluating field service structures proposed for the mod-\nernized NWS.\nWeather Forecast Offices\nThe Committee has examined the various configurations of the Weather\nForecast Office (WFO) network that have been considered and endorses the\nproposed network of 115 WFOs, which coincides with the expected effec-\ntive coverage of the new Next Generation Weather Radars (NEXRADs),\na radius of around 200 km from each unit. The efficacy of this network\n36","will be validated by the Modernization and Associated Restructuring\nDemonstration (MARD) to be conducted for one year in the midwestern\nUnited States around 1993, a schedule that is in jeopardy because of contin-\nued delays in implementation of the Advanced Weather Interactive Process-\ning System. However, the Committee is very concerned about a report\nthat the Department of Commerce has decided to modify the MARD to test\nthe efficacy of using about one-half as many WFOs as now planned while\nmaintaining the current proposed network of 115 NEXRADs.\nAttempting to double the area covered by each WFO without a propor-\ntional increase in staff on shift could seriously jeopardize the ability of each\nWFO to deal effectively with small-scale weather events over such a large\narea. Moreover, coordination of warnings with state and local government\nwould also be degraded by doubling the area of responsibility for each\nWFO. Furthermore, a two-tier test would surely increase significantly the\ndifficulties involved in using the MARD results in the certification process\nrequired by Congress. Finally, the need to transmit the full-resolution data\nfrom two or three remote NEXRADs to a WFO and to merge these data\nin \"real time\" for use by meteorologists, although technically feasible,\nwould add significantly to the complexity, cost, and the time required to\nimplement both the MARD and, subsequently, the entire modernization.\nThe Department of Commerce should carefully reconsider its\ndecision to have the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-\ntion/National Weather Service conduct a two-tiered Modernization and\nAssociated Restructuring Demonstration because a configuration of\nsignificantly fewer than 115 Weather Forecast Offices will lead to\nserious degradation of weather services. Moreover, such an experiment\nwould be much more complex and expensive, and would probably lead\nto a serious delay in the National Weather Service modernization.\nHydrology in the National Weather Service Modernization\nThe nation's need for improved management of water resources and\nmore accurate flood forecasting will increase during the 1990s. Modern-\nization of the NWS presents opportunities for improving hydrological\nservices on all time scales by taking advantage of the new observational\ntechnology and forecasting capabilities, and by enhancing the collaboration\nbetween meteorologists and hydrologists.\n37","In light of the National Weather Service modernization and re-\nstructuring, the workloads, responsibilities, interactions, and cross-\ntraining of meteorological, hydrometeorological, and hydrological\npersonnel planned for Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast\nCenters should be examined carefully and redefined.\nNEW AND STRONGER COLLABORATION\nStrong and effective collaboration between the NWS and the academic\ncommunity, the private sector, and public institutions is necessary for the\nNWS to accomplish its mission to provide weather and flood warnings and\npublic forecasts for the protection of life and property, as well as to im-\nprove its services. Thus, planning and fostering these collaborations must\nbe an important part of the NWS modernization.\nUniversities\nThe success of the NWS in accomplishing its mission depends on the\neffective integration of the skills and knowledge of its meteorologists, on\nemploying advancing technology for observing the atmosphere, on contin-\nued improvement in its systems for transmitting information and creating\nnumerical simulations and forecasts of atmospheric behavior, and on effec-\ntive utilization of new and basic scientific understanding of the atmosphere.\nClearly then, the effectiveness of the NWS is dependent on education, on\ntechnological development, and on scientific advances. Thus the Commit-\ntee believes that the federal government must take a new view of the\nrelationship among NOAA, the NWS, and the atmospheric sciences com-\nmunity, especially in the universities. An important new component of\nmodernization of the NWS should be a strong commitment by NWS and\nNOAA to strengthen their research partnership with the academic commu-\nnity.\nThe Committee agrees with the NWS intent to collocate, to the extent\npossible, Weather Forecast Offices with universities offering undergraduate\nand graduate education in meteorology. Unfortunately, NWS efforts to\nimplement this ideal situation are being impeded by lack of a high-level\nfederal policy on collocation and by ponderous procurement procedures that\ndelay and mitigate against the necessary commitments.\n38","The Administration and Congress should adopt a policy that fosters\nthe collocation of as many Weather Forecast Offices as possible on uni-\nversity campuses with atmospheric science departments.\nThe Committee believes that more intimate and effective collaboration\nbetween the NWS and the universities in education and research would\ngreatly benefit both parties and the nation.\nThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the\nNational Weather Service should implement enhanced collaboration\nwith universities in the atmospheric and hydrologic sciences, in both\neducation and research.\nPrivate Sector\nThe private sector provides much of the new technology now being\nimplemented in the NWS modernization and also contributes to the techno-\nlogical advances on which operational improvements are based. The\nprimary sources of weather forecasts and warnings for the general public\nare the mass media: television, radio, and newspapers. Clearly, maintain-\ning effective collaboration with the mass media is crucial, and any inadver-\ntent actions that might impair linkages between the NWS and the media\nwould have serious impacts on the safety and well-being of the populace\nand on the commercial sector as well. Private weather services, which\nprovide a variety of services regionally, nationally, and even worldwide,\nconstitute another major interface between the NWS and the general public\nor other elements of the private sector. Thus although these components\nof the private sector are providing many important services today, they will\nbecome even more important in the era of the modernized NWS. Increased\nattention to collaboration with the private sector will be required as mod-\nernization of the NWS continues.\nTo ensure that the association between the National Weather\nService and the private sector functions smoothly and efficiently to the\nbest advantage of all parties, including the general public, the\nconstituent affairs activities of the National Weather Service should be\nstrengthened; the Constituent Affairs Officer should act as an ombuds-\nman for the private sector to the Assistant Administrator of the\n39","National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for Weather\nServices, coordinate program changes with the private sector, obtain\nits inputs to National Weather Service planning and evaluation, and\narbitrate or resolve conflicts as they arise.\nPublic Institutions\nCommunity preparedness is essential to save lives and minimize\nproperty damage during severe weather situations. The critical role of the\nNWS is to participate actively in preparedness planning and then communi-\ncate both to state and local governments, and to the public, the seriousness\nof specific weather situations. A leadership role is necessary, and the\nCommittee believes that a limited, part-time approach to this key function\nis entirely inadequate.\nTo ensure adequate community preparedness, professional staff\ntime equivalent to a full-time person should be provided at each Weath-\ner Forecast Office to work with state and local governments and other\ninvolved agencies in preparing plans for the community's response to\nsevere weather. To maintain liaison with public institutions and to\nassist in community preparedness, the federal government should\nconsider retaining, with limited staff, most Weather Service Offices\nnow planned for closure.\nIMPLEMENTATION PROCESS\nThe NWS has done a commendable job in planning its modernization.\nA new matrix organization is in place and top management staffing is\ncomplete. However, both NOAA and the Department of Commerce appear\nto have a shortage of staff to provide administrative support, such as\nprocurement and personnel, and to handle the external contacts with Con-\ngress, user groups, and the public that are essential for implementation of\nthe modernization and associated restructuring. Moreover, the Committee\nis concerned that the project management, engineering, and support staff\nmay not be as strong as required for an effort of this magnitude.\nIt appears to the Committee that the NWS lacks an overall policy for\nconfiguration control of large systems and for the development and mainte-\nnance of complex software. System engineering in the NWS environment\n40","is vital because of the phased development and because NWS systems must\nremain operational during upgrading and modernization.\nThe National Weather Service should establish overall policies and\nprocedures for the development of major systems, including considera-\ntion of the interaction between systems, and establish software develop-\nment and maintenance standards.\nOverall, the Committee is impressed with the progress that has been\nmade in developing hardware and preparing for field installation. Delays\nin procurement and funding constraints for the Advanced Weather Interac-\ntive Processing System (AWIPS) are the most serious concerns involving\nhardware, although there are some troublesome delays in software and\nhardware for the Next Generation Weather Radar. The AWIPS situation\nposes a major problem in the Modernization and Associated Restructuring\nDemonstration and certification process that must precede restructuring of\nthe NWS.\nThe Committee's study to date has not reviewed the system security\nand resiliency issues involved in modernization. It is apparent, however,\nthat the NWS has concentrated on physical security and has not paid\nsufficient attention to the security of electronic access.\nThe National Weather Service should satisfy itself that the security\nof its data systems will be adequate to preclude a breakdown of critical\nservices in the event of improper intervention, either intentional or\ninadvertent, in its data and communications systems.\nThe Committee is concerned about the plan to have only one meteo-\nrologist on duty during the night shift at each Weather Forecast Office\n(WFO). The weather is no less life-threatening and damaging at night than\nduring the day and evening. The concept upon which the NWS bases the\nfeasibility of the proposed night shift staffing has not been tested success-\nfully. Therefore, the Committee recommends:\nThe proposal to produce operational forecasts by computer that are\nequal to or better than current manually produced forecasts and\nwarnings should be demonstrated for a variety of weather conditions\n41","and locations. The new procedures should be operational and their\nefficacy established before the meteorological staff at a Weather Fore-\ncast Office is reduced to the proposed one person on the night shift.\nAn alternate operational plan for staffing the night shift should be\nformulated for use until the proposed concept has been fully developed\nand proven.\nThe Committee recognizes that many of the suggestions made in this\nreport have a potential impact on the budget for the NWS modernization\nand associated restructuring. The additional personnel required temporarily\nto assist in modernization activities could save money in the long term.\nAlthough the solution proposed for the problem of limited forecast staff on\nthe night shift at the WFOs may reduce the overall savings visualized from\nrestructuring the NWS until the effectiveness of automation can be demon-\nstrated satisfactorily, the Committee believes that this would be compen-\nsated by savings to the public and governments from reduced loss of life\nand destruction of property. The phasing of funds for NOAA satellites to\nensure their continuity and for rectifying the current low incremental\nfunding of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System program\nwould also require an increase in near-term budgets but would probably\nreduce the overall cost of implementation.\nAlthough the Committee has not received detailed plans for certifi-\ncation to review, it offers two initial observations. First, specific compari-\nsons of the quantity and quality of weather information, forecasts, warn-\nings, and their prompt dissemination must be obtained, both during the\nModernization and Associated Restructuring Demonstration and during the\nprocess of certifying the capabilities of any WFO to serve its area of\nresponsibility. The Committee believes that carefully constructed and unbi-\nased comparisons will demonstrate a noteworthy improvement in the\nquality and accuracy of service. Second, to increase the credibility of the\ncertification process in the eyes of user groups and Congress, it may be\nappropriate, at some stage, to involve an independent evaluation of the\nstatistical and analytical measures developed during the initial operations\nof the WFOs as applied to each specific certification.\n42","Appendix B\nReview of Recommendations\nin the First Report\nIn the following, the recommendations of the National Research\nCouncil's (NRC) National Weather Service (NWS) Modernization Commit-\ntee, taken from its First Report (NRC, 1991), are given, followed by the\nresponse of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\n(NOAA). This detailed response was dated August, 1991. Where later\ndevelopments are known to the Committee, NOAA's response has been\nupdated. Finally, the Committee's analysis of the response is presented.\nThe section titles in this appendix are the same as those in the First Report\nand in Chapter 2 of this report for ease of cross-reference.\nBROAD RECOMMENDATIONS\nThe First Report set forth four broad recommendations dealing with (1)\nthe need for adequate financial and personnel support for the moderniza-\ntion, (2) strengthening of management, (3) use of advisory panels, and (4)\nthe need to continue modernization after the modernized weather system\nnow being developed has been deployed, including the Next Generation\nWeather Radar (NEXRAD), also known as the Weather Service Radar-\n1988 design, Doppler (WSR-88D), the Automated Surface Observing\nSystem (ASOS), the Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environ-\nmental Satellite (GOES-Next), and the Advanced Weather Interactive\nProcessing System (AWIPS).\n43","Financial and Personnel Support\nRecommendation: The success of the National Weather Service modern-\nization requires an increased commitment of resources and personnel to the\nmany scientific, technical, and organizational challenges involved. Parsi-\nmony now will be expensive later.\nNOAA Response: NOAA, the Department of Commerce (DOC), and the\nAdministration strongly support NWS modernization and associated\nrestructuring as evidenced by a continuing commitment to fund the modern-\nization program during difficult budget times. One of the first things\nSecretary Mosbacher did upon taking office was to direct NOAA to assure\nthat there would be no degradation of weather support for this country as\na result of modernization of the NWS. Every action the Secretary has\ntaken since supports this resolve, and he has maintained an active interest\nin the program. The NWS modernization has been, and remains, the\nhighest priority program within NOAA. NOAA will continue to pursue\ncompletion of NWS modernization and associated restructuring as aggres-\nsively as possible.\nCommittee Response: Despite the assertion of high priority in the NOAA\nresponse, the Committee remains concerned that funding will be inadequate\nto meet the schedule in the National Implementation Plan (DOC, 1991).\nIf the schedule continues to be stretched out, there is an increasing likeli-\nhood that the quality of the present weather service will degrade, as dis-\ncussed in Chapter 1. A prime example is the apparent delay in the funding\nand contract award for a full start-up of AWIPS, the critical component for\nintegrating all of the new data and for preparing warnings and forecasts.\nSystem Management\nRecommendation: The National Weather Service modernization requires\nthe development and implementation of complex observation and infor-\nmation systems. Rigorous and creative management of the overall structure\nand of the individual components of each of these systems is essential for\nsuccess. The system management capabilities of the National Weather\nService must be strengthened through the commitment of additional resourc-\nes and personnel.\nNOAA Response: DOC has established a new Systems Program Office\n(SPO) reporting to the Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmo-\nsphere. The SPO will bring improved systems development and acquisition\ntalent to bear on all four of the systems in the NWS modernization and\n44","associated restructuring program. The SPO will consolidate relevant\nsystem acquisition components in the NWS; the National Environmental\nSatellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS); and DOC Major\nSystems Procurement Division. This office will streamline and strengthen\nprogram management by assigning full responsibility for the design,\nprocurement, and acceptance of new systems in a single office. NOAA\nbelieves this action will greatly improve its ability to meet critical time\nschedules and cost estimates. The NWS will retain responsibility for\nestablishing the requirements for systems' capabilities required to support\nmodernization. In addition, this change will allow NWS management to\nconcentrate on the facility planning and construction, training, staff restruc-\nturing, and service aspects associated with the program--each of which is\nvital to an improved NWS. NOAA does not see any significant change in\nthe role of the NRC Committee in light of the SPO. The NWS and the\nSPO will jointly participate in future NRC Committee activities.\nCommittee Response: The Committee has noted the establishment of the\nnew NOAA Systems Program Office (SPO) as discussed in Chapter 1.\nUse of a SPO can be an effective mechanism, but only if staffed with the\nappropriate number of qualified technical and management people and,\nimportantly, if it keeps the needs of the operator of the system (i.e., the\nNWS) closely in mind and ensures good communication with the operator.\nThe portion of the Committee's recommendation dealing with additional re-\nsources and personnel is discussed below in the section \"Implementation\nProcess.\"\nTechnical Advisory Panels\nRecommendation:\nModernization of the National Weather Service\ninvolves a variety of scientific and technical issues and challenges. The\nNational Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric\nAdministration should create technical advisory panels for each of the\nmajor systems that contribute to the technological modernization. Howev-\ner, these panels cannot substitute for the additional resources and person-\nnel recommended.\nNOAA Response: NOAA recognizes the importance and value of techni-\ncal advisory panels and has utilized this vehicle a number of times already\non NWS modernization. Some examples which the NRC Committee is\nalready familiar with are: The Advisory Committee for NEXRAD Systems\nRequirements Evaluation, chaired by Mr. Raymond G. Kammer (Septem-\nber 1985); National Bureau of Standards Review of the AWIPS Procure-\n45","ment, led by Dr. Merrill M. Hessel (August 1988); National Institute of\nStandards and Technology Panel Review of the AWIPS Program at the\nDefinition Phase, chaired by Dr. Merrill M. Hessel (September 1989); and\nThe ASOS Interagency Test Review Board (September 1990). NOAA will\ncontinue to utilize technical advisory panels in the future.\nCommittee Response: The response of NOAA with respect to the use of\ntechnical advisory panels is inadequate. The Committee recognizes that\npanels have been used on an ad hoc basis in the past but reiterates its\nrecommendation for standing panels composed of outside experts for each\nof the major components of the new system.\nAdditional New Technology\nRecommendation: Modernization must continue beyond the implementa-\ntion of systems now being procured. Provision should be made to incor-\nporate data from additional new technology, such as wind profilers and a\nlightning detection network, and to take advantage of scientific develop-\nments as well as improved computational and information systems as they\nbecome available.\nNOAA Response: A wide range of research programs are in place, within\nNOAA and in cooperation with academic communities and other agencies\nof the Federal Government, that provide for the transfer of scientific and\ntechnological knowledge to the NWS modernization program and go\nbeyond ASOS, NEXRAD, AWIPS, and GOES. Some examples of these\nare: A demonstration network of vertical wind profilers is being installed\nacross the central part of the Nation. A total of 25 profiler systems are\nbeing installed this year, and the wind data from these systems will be\nmade available to NWS offices. NWS will be conducting an assessment\nof the utility of the wind profiler data this coming year. Research on\nthermodynamic profilers continues. A request for proposals to acquire\nlightning data for use by NWS field offices is being prepared. The AWIPS\nprogram has been structured to take advantage of improved computational\ncapabilities as they become available. NOAA's Forecast Systems Labora-\ntory is one of the major contributors to the NWS modernization program\nthrough its Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Servi-\nces (PROFS) project. The PROFS mission is to improve operational\nweather services by testing and transferring advances in science and tech-\nnology to the NWS.\n46","Committee Response: NOAA will require a strong commitment, top-level\nsupport, and carefully phased spending plans to continue modernization, for\nexample, through the addition of profilers, a permanent lightning detection\nnetwork, and a replacement for the present upper air observation system.\nOBSERVATION COMPONENTS\nNext Generation Weather Radar\nRecommendation: Steps should be taken to ensure the continued develop-\nment and improvement of Next Generation Weather Radar processing\nalgorithms as new developments and operational experience accumulate.\nThe National Weather Service should develop a continuing comprehensive\ntraining and education program so that the skills of the Next Generation\nWeather Radar maintenance and operational staffs, as well as the meteorol-\nlogists and hydrologists, reflect the ever-changing state of the art.\nNOAA Response: The National Severe Storms Laboratory's (NSSL)\nsuccessful results in the field of Doppler radar were important precursors\nto the NEXRAD program and NSSL continues to support that program in\ncritical ways. NSSL has developed, refined, and improved a number of\nalgorithms planned for use in NEXRAD. NSSL also prepares studies on\nmesocyclones in attempts to discriminate between tornadic and non-tornadic\nmesocyclones. Output from these efforts will feed into the development of\nenhanced algorithms for the NEXRAD system to improve severe weather\nforecasting performance at NWS offices. The WSR-88D Operational\nSupport Facility will play a key role in furthering the development and\nimprovement of NEXRAD algorithms and ensuring their introduction into\nNWS field offices. The modernization depends upon the new technology\nworking well to deliver the kinds of information needed by forecasters.\nBut the modernization will fail if NOAA does not have well-trained staff\nin the offices of the future. NOAA is concentrating on the training re-\nquirements for all categories of employees to provide them with the intel-\nlectual tools they need to make good use of the technological capabilities\nrepresented by these systems. Every one of the operational employees will\nbe offered a significant amount of training and professional development.\nNOAA Update: The Office of Hydrology has developed, refined, and\nimproved a three-stage precipitation processing system for deriving quanti-\ntative precipitation estimates from the NEXRAD. Four-week NEXRAD\n(WSR-88D) operations training courses began in September 1991. All\nNWS operational meteorologists and hydrologists will take this course after\n47","using on-site training materials (workbooks and video tapes). The classes\ncombine Doppler radar theory and hands-on case studies played back on\nstudent work-stations. All electronic technicians and electronic system\nanalysts will learn about the WSR-88D system through a combination of\nresident classes at the NWS Training Center and on-site training materials.\nCommittee Response: The Committee is encouraged that the NEXRAD\nprogram now appears to be back on track. Committee members were im-\npressed, during site visits, with the operation of the Norman, Oklahoma,\nand Sterling, Virginia (near Washington, D.C.), radars even though they\nwere still undergoing engineering tests. The response of NOAA concern-\ning algorithm development, improved precipitation processing, training,\nand education is commendable.\nAutomated Surface Observing System\nRecommendation: The National Weather Service should identify other\nlocal and state surface observation resources; assess their quality and\nutility for operational use as adjunct data; prepare a national summary of\nthe nation's high-resolution observing capabilities; assess the cost of\nacquiring and upgrading the nation's high-resolution surface observing\ncapabilities; initiate efforts to acquire existing data and, as feasible, to\nimprove the quality and quantity of the data; and promote the development\nand installation of additional local and state networks in data-sparse\nregions.\nNOAA Response: NOAA recognizes the value of local and state obser-\nvational resources and will aggressively seek these out to supplement\nASOS. In addition, NOAA is exploring technologies and data sources to\ncomplement the ASOS observation.\nCommittee Response: The response of NOAA is positive; the Committee\nlooks forward to learning of the progress made in obtaining supplemental\nobservations.\nFunding for Satellites\nRecommendation: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,\nthe Department of Commerce, the Office of Management and Budget, and\nthe Congress should provide more realistic budgeting and funding for the\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational satellite\n48","systems in order to realize the full potential benefits of the National Weath-\ner Service modernization and associated restructuring.\nNOAA Response: The technical, cost, and schedule problems with\nGOES I development have been well documented. Secretary Mosbacher\nand Under Secretary Knauss are giving the GOES situation their personal\nattention. Currently, the present GOES 7 is working very well, and\nNOAA believes it is likely that it can continue to provide full service\nthrough 1993 and partially degraded service through 1995. NOAA is\naware that continued contractor delays coupled with a premature failure of\nGOES 7 could leave the United States without any geostationary satellite\ncapability which would severely impact the ability of the NWS to deliver\naccurate and timely warnings and forecasts of severe weather. NOAA has,\ntherefore, developed a No-GOES Plan. The plan consists of using NOAA\nand Department of Defense polar orbiting satellites to generate composite\nsnapshot images of the United States, increasing the availability of all\npolar-orbiter data throughout NWS offices, relying more on European\ngeostationary satellite coverage over the Atlantic Ocean, and increasing the\nuse of conventional radiosonde and buoy data. The Europeans have agreed\nto move an older Meteosat satellite over the mid-Atlantic, providing\ncoverage over the eastern portions of North America. It may even be\npossible to move this satellite to a position even further west to provide\ngreater U.S. coverage. The No-GOES Plan is the best \"fix\" available for\na short-term interruption in GOES coverage. However, these measures fall\nfar short of constituting an adequate substitute for GOES 7. NOAA\nis\nexploring other options to provide alternate sources of data for a longer\n\"No-GOES\" period, including borrowing a Japanese GMS satellite and\nevaluation of whether to proceed with a \"gap-filler\" GOES-7 clone satel-\nlite. The polar satellite program is in much better shape. NOAA, DOC,\nand the Administration strongly support and will continue to seek necessary\nfunding for these vital programs.\nCommittee Response: The Committee supports the decision of the Secre-\ntary of Commerce to proceed with the current GOES-Next program by\ncompleting and launching a thoroughly tested, specification-compliant\nGOES-I, and to provide a backup to the present GOES 7 by using the\nEuropean Meteosat 3 geostationary weather satellite, moved from viewing\nEurope to covering the western Atlantic and the United States. The com-\nmunications link between the NOAA satellite station for GOES at Wallops,\nVirginia, and the Meteosat station in Darmstadt, Germany, established to\nfacilitate this move, should benefit both the United States and Europe in\nfuture cooperative operations. The Committee is still concerned about the\n49","possible loss of satellite service in the future because the funding of the\nGOES-Next geostationary satellite program is too limited. A minimum of\ntwo fully operational satellites in orbit, plus one available to be launched\nand a fourth nearing completion (in case of a launch failure), is required\nto ensure continuity of operational coverage.\nClimate Data Record\nRecommendation: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nshould set the requirements for the climate data to be derived from the\nmodernized National Weather Service observations, establish the role of the\nNational Weather Service in generating these data, and ensure the avail-\nability of the resources necessary for this purpose. The National Weather\nService at all levels should recognize its responsibility to acquire a major\nportion of the national climate record; the preservation of data quality for\nclimatic purposes should have equal priority with its mission of providing\nforecasts.\nRecommendation: Criteria for the accuracy of the various data collection\nsystems should be selected carefully with attention both to the needs of the\nNational Weather Service and to the quality of the climate record. Limits\non both random and bias errors for data systems should be determined by\nthe requirements of science rather than by the technology of the measure-\nment.\nRecommendation: When new instruments are brought into operation,\nthere should be proof that their observations are within well-defined limits\nof the observations over the range of the record provided by the instruments\nthey replace. This will require that new and old systems be operated\nsimultaneously in an operational environment, for at least one year, at\nmany locations around the country. Ideally, this simultaneous operation\nshould occur at every site where new equipment is installed. If the new\nequipment does not meet the requirements that ensure the integrity and\nviability of the climate record, then the National Weather Service must be\nprepared to modify it or find an alternative.\nRecommendation: When instrument sites are changed, simultaneous\noperation at the old and new sites should occur until adequate statistics on\nthe difference of observations between sites can be developed. These statis-\ntics should be recorded carefully and made readily available.\nRecommendation: Authority should be given to an individual or indi-\nviduals at each site to question the accuracy of any observation system, and\n50","allowance should be made for that individual or those individuals to study\nthe problem and recommend changes. The National Weather Service and\nits reward system should encourage individuals to ensure continuously the\naccuracy of data collection systems and of the climate record.\nRecommendation: The National Weather Service should establish a\nnetwork of observation stations in natural and undeveloped areas with the\nsole aim of acquiring baseline data for a long-term climate record. Consis-\ntency of the record over long periods should be the first priority. Areas in\nwhich these stations are located must remain natural and undeveloped;\nnational parks would be candidate sites. This network will fit within the\ncurrent Automated Surface Observing System program with only modest\nadditional cost.\nNOAA Response: NOAA recognizes the importance of preserving the\ndata quality for climatic purposes. Several steps are being taken. NOAA\nwill continue the NWS Cooperative Weather Observer Program which\nprovides climatological and hydrological data taken at 11,000 locations by\nvolunteer observers. NOAA will also conduct a Climate Data Continuity\nProject, with the objective of determining any systematic differences\n(biases) that exist between the climate record as recorded by the ASOS and\nthe historical climate record at NWS first order stations and to document\nthose differences. The change in the observing system with ASOS will\nmean changes in instrumentation, procedure, data archival, and in some\ninstance relocations. The determination and application of biases to ASOS\nobservational data will ensure a continuous climate data record upon which\ntime series analyses can be performed without fear of contamination of the\nrecord by changes in the way observations were taken. Initially, it is\nplanned that NWS staffed locations will provide comparative observations\nat a subset of the 16 ASOSs to be deployed in the central United States\nduring 1991. This study will consist of at least 1 year of comparative\nobservational and ASOS data. The comparative observations will consist\nof daily liquid precipitation accumulation observations with standard weigh-\ning rain gages and maximum and minimum temperatures and 6-hour\ntemperature and dew point observations with liquid-in-glass thermometers\nin standard instrument shelters located adjacent to the NWS office. In\naddition to these comparative observations, six-hourly observations of sky\ncondition, visibility and obstructions to vision, and present weather will be\ntaken to aid in the analysis. A comparative study will be conducted using\n1 year of observations. Observations will be continued during the course\nof the study to maintain continuity.\n51","NOAA Update: The NOAA Climate Data Continuity Project began in FY\n91. The objective of the project is to determine and document any biases\nthat exist between the climate record as recorded by the ASOS and the\nhistorical climate record at NWS first order stations for 24-hour accumu-\nlated precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature. Data\ncollection will start with ASOS commissioning beginning in the spring of\n1992.\nCommittee Response: The Committee believes that comparing one year\nof observations from a subset of 16 ASOS units deployed in the \"central\nUnited States\" is inadequate to test for bias in the climate record in other\nmeteorological regimes, such as desert, coastal, and mountainous. Con-\ncerning climate in general, it is not clear that there is a NOAA-wide plan\nfor the acquisition and archiving of climate data from all sources, including\nrequirements for parameters, accuracies, locations, what is to be saved,\netc. More attention should be given to the synergistic use of all of\nNOAA's modernized observing units for climate monitoring. Additional\npreliminary findings on data for climate studies from the NRC Climate\nResearch Committee of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate\nappear in Appendix C.\nNEW INFORMATION COMPONENTS: AWIPS\nRecommendation: The Administration and Congress should take the\nnecessary steps to maintain the implementation schedule for the Advanced\nWeather Interactive Processing System and its associated communications.\nThe National Weather Service, in consort with the university community\nand private sector users of National Weather Service data and information,\nshould develop viable plans for broad access to the raw data and informa-\ntion that will become available via the Advanced Weather Interactive\nProcessing System, keeping in mind the benefits such collaboration can\nprovide to the government, the public, and the private sector.\nNOAA Response: NOAA, DOC, and the Administration strongly support\nthe AWIPS program. The fiscal year 1992 President's budget includes\nfunding for award of the development phase contract. The development,\ndeployment, and operation phase proposals for AWIPS were received from\nthe two contractors in February 1991. The evaluation of those proposals\nis currently underway. NOAA expects to award the AWIPS contract to the\nsuccessful offerer in March 1992. NOAAPORT will provide communica-\ntions support for the operational distribution of the centrally collected data\nand centrally produced analysis and guidance products, as well as the\n52","satellite imagery and sounding data processed by NESDIS. In addition to\nsupporting the requirement for AWIPS point to multipoint communications,\nNOAAPORT will also deliver a wide range of NOAA products, such as\noceanographic and environmental data, to external users, including other\ngovernment agencies, universities, private research organizations, and\nbusiness interests.\nNOAA Update: Evaluation of Development, Deployment, and Operations\nPhase proposals continues and software risk reduction tasks are being\ncompleted under the current extension of the definition phase contract.\nBased largely on findings from these major activities, the program schedule\nfor the follow-on phases is currently undergoing a comprehensive review.\nA formal rebaselining of the schedule is expected to be completed in\nFebruary, 1992. Award of the development phase contract in early FY\n1993 is anticipated. An additional follow-on extension to the definition\nphase contracts is being planned to keep the critical nucleus of each defini-\ntion phase contractor team intact until development phase contract award.\nCommittee Response: The Committee is increasingly concerned that\nfunding for AWIPS may be inadequate for NOAA to pursue this essential\nprogram vigorously and without further delays. Committee members were\nimpressed with AWIPS research at NOAA Environmental Research Labo-\nratories as manifested in the pre-AWIPS units operating in Boulder, Colo-\nrado, as well as at the NWS forecast offices in Denver, Colorado, and\nNorman, Oklahoma. The need for AWIPS is compelling, and program\nimplementation should not involve high-risk developments. The NWS\nmeteorologists must have the capability to acquire, integrate, and process\nall the data to be available in the modernized system in order to generate\nand disseminate in a timely manner detailed and accurate warnings and\nother products. Full AWIPS capability will not be available in the Mod-\nernization and Associated Restructuring Demonstration (MARD), which\nwill compromise the results because of delayed development of software\nfor full data integration and interpretation. The Committee is very con-\ncerned about recent delays in the implementation of AWIPS. Award of the\ndevelopmental-phase contract has slipped as much as one year from the\ndate projected by NOAA in August 1991. This will further delay the\nMARD and the implementation of the modernization. Personnel savings\nproposed as a result of modernization cannot be achieved without full\n1 See insets in Chapter 1.\n2 See Figure 1, page 2 for implementation schedules.\n53","implementation of AWIPS. The Committee also remains concerned about\nthe adequacy of plans for the dissemination of data and information to the\nprivate sector.\nNEW STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\nThe Number of Weather Forecast Offices\nRecommendation: The Department of Commerce should carefully recon-\nsider its decision to have the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-\ntration/National Weather Service conduct a two-tiered Modernization and\nAssociated Restructuring Demonstration because a configuration of signifi-\ncantly fewer than 115 Weather Forecast Offices will lead to serious degra-\ndation of weather services. Moreover, such an experiment would be much\nmore complex and expensive, and would probably lead to a serious delay\nin the National Weather Service modernization.\nNOAA Response: As the NRC report points out, \"a configuration of\nsignificantly fewer than 115 Weather Forecast Offices will lead to serious\ndegradation of weather services.\" NOAA agrees with this statement and\nis unaware of any support in DOC for a two-tiered MARD test. In fact,\nthe Secretary of Commerce recently signed the fiscal year 1991 annual\nupdate to the National Implementation Plan which describes the 115 WFO\nconcept underpinning the modernization and associated restructuring.\nSimilarly, testimony of Administration officials before the Congress contin-\nues to support the Strategic Plan. NOAA, therefore, believes that the\nDepartment's policy has not been changed from the full 115 WFO concept.\nCommittee Response: The Committee is gratified to learn that the general\nstructure of MARD has not been changed. It remains convinced that 115\nWFOs is near the minimum required for an effective weather service in the\nUnited States.\nHydrology in the National Weather\nService Modernization\nRecommendation: In light of the National Weather Service modernization\nand restructuring, the workloads, responsibilities, interactions, and cross-\ntraining of meteorological, hydrometeorological, and hydrological person-\nnel planned for Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers\nshould be examined carefully and redefined.\n54","Recommendation: Incorporation of improved Quantitative Precipitation\nForecasts and associated uncertainties into the hydrologic models for short-\nrange and long-term stream-flow forecasts is essential and requires collabo-\nrative scientific investigation by the National Weather Service and the\nacademic community.\nRecommendation: Training programs in meteorological practices for\nHydrometeorological Analysis and Support hydrologists and in hydrology\nfor meteorologists should be established to promote maximum interaction\nbetween Weather Forecast Office and River Forecast Center operational\npersonnel.\nRecommendation: Hydrometeorological Analysis and Support functions\nat River Forecast Centers and the interaction of Hydrometeorological\nAnalysis and Support personnel with Weather Forecast Office meteorolo-\ngists require clarification and better definition, especially as they relate to\nflash flood situations.\nRecommendation: Consultation with meteorologists should be included\nin the current and future development of software to be used at hydrologi-\ncal computer work stations. This software should be installed in all of the\nAdvanced Weather Interactive Processing System work stations at the River\nForecast Centers and Weather Forecast Offices so that it is accessible to\nall of the meteorologists, hydrometeorologists, and hydrologists.\nRecommendation: The validity of using the same general Next Generation\nWeather Radar algorithms for determination of rainfall estimates in all\nseasons, in all weather conditions, and at all Next Generation Weather\nRadar locations should be tested.\nNOAA Response: NOAA has recently installed prototype equipment at\nNorman, Oklahoma, with the goal of emulating a WFO. At Norman,\nNOAA will have a prototype of the modernized WFO that will be put in\nplace across the country. NOAA has also started a risk-reduction activity\nat Tulsa to demonstrate AWIPS-era RFC operations and interactions with\nthe Norman WFO. Evaluation of the Norman and Tulsa risk-reduction\nprojects will include the central data feed, the interface between the\nNEXRAD and the pre-AWIPS workstation, WFO staffing configuration,\nWFO and RFC services, WFO and RFC operations, and the interface\nbetween the WFO and RFC. Each of these risk-reduction programs\nincreases confidence in NOAA's ability to execute the Strategic Plan for\nthe Modernization and Associated Restructuring of the National Weather\nService. NOAA believes that the results also will increase the public's\nconfidence in the modernized NWS.\n55","NOAA Update: NOAA has developed a comprehensive plan (NWS Office\nof Hydrology, 1991) in support of the modernization of the Weather\nService, to more closely couple and enhance hydrologic and meteorological\noperations and services through new hydrologic and hydrometeorological\noperations; new training programs to enhance interaction and transfer of\ninformation between hydrologists and meteorologists; improved technology;\nand a detailed concept for hydrometeorological system support.\nCommittee Response: The response of NOAA regarding hydrology risk\nreduction activities at Norman and Tulsa, Oklahoma, is quite positive. The\nCommittee looks forward to examining the new plan for hydrometeoro-\nlogical service operations (NWS Office of Hydrology, 1991), particularly\nwith regard to other recommendations in the First Report, including the use\nof improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and associated uncertainties\nin hydrologic models, cross-training of meteorologists and hydrologists,\ndevelopment of software for AWIPS work stations in the River Forecast\nCenters (RFCs), and the serious issue of the validity of using the same\nNEXRAD precipitation algorithm in all conditions and locations.\nNEW AND STRONGER COLLABORATION\nUniversities\nRecommendation: The Administration and Congress should adopt a policy\nthat fosters the collocation of as many Weather Forecast Offices as possible\non university campuses with atmospheric science departments.\nRecommendation: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nand the National Weather Service should implement enhanced collaboration\nwith universities in the atmospheric and hydrologic sciences, in both\neducation and research.\nNOAA Response: The modernization of the NWS is truly a national\nprogram. NOAA is doing all it can to enlist the assistance of the national\nacademic community. NOAA is striving to collocate as many new offices\nas is economically and operationally feasible with academic facilities in an\neffort to promote a closer interaction between the researchers and practi-\ntioners of the meteorological and hydrological sciences. The collocation\nof NWS's Norman, Oklahoma, facility with NOAA's NSSL and the\nUniversity of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology has been invaluable in\nhelping make significant progress in improving the understanding of severe\nstorms and the ability to forecast them. NOAA is also working closely\nwith the academic community through the Cooperative Program for Opera-\n56","tional Meteorology, Education, and Training, a program conducted by the\nUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research through a cooperative\nagreement with the NWS.\nNOAA Update: It is now proposed to collocate nine WFOs with universi-\nties and nine with research institutes. A \"Strategic Plan for Collaborative\nResearch Activities Between National Weather Service Operational Offices\nand Universities,\" is in final draft form. The plan includes the framework\nfor collaborative research activities at Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs),\nExperimental Forecast Facilities (EFFs), and RFCs. The EFFs will pursue\nan organized program of operational research conducted by a staff of\nresearch forecasters. EFFs have been established at the Weather Service\nForecast Office (WSFO) at Denver, Colorado; the WSFO at Norman,\nOklahoma; and the National Severe Storms Forecast Center at Kansas City,\nMissouri. A fourth EFF may be established at the National Meteorological\nCenter in Camp Springs, Maryland.\nCommittee Response: Although NOAA's response is generally positive,\nquestions remain concerning the scope of collaboration and the strength of\nits resolve.\nAlthough NOAA plans to collocate nine WFOs with universities, the\nCommittee understands that there are procurement issues to be faced in\nother places. In some instances, a difficult choice must be made among\ncompetitive proposals; in others, a perceived lack of competition may be\na concern. The Committee believes that much more can be accomplished\nif top-level attention is devoted to the issue; the benefits to be derived\nwarrant this attention.\nThe early and dramatic success of the Cooperative Program for Opera-\ntional Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET) provides convinc-\ning evidence for this view. The COMET outreach program has already led\nto 19 cooperative research projects located at 17 universities throughout the\nnation. These projects are addressing a wide range of forecasting problems\nof immediate and significant concern to the NWS. They provide excellent\nopportunities for students and faculties to contribute to improved forecast-\ning techniques. These opportunities should lead to more motivated facui-\nties and better-trained students, many of whom will serve as NWS employ-\nees in the future. The projects should also improve relationships and\ncollaboration between the universities and the NWS. Moreover, these\naccomplishments are being achieved with a very modest budget, which\ndemonstrates the leverage that can be obtained from such a cooperative\nprogram.\n57","Both the COMET program and the location of WFOs on university\ncampuses are very significant efforts for the NWS, and the Committee\nreemphasizes their importance. Moreover, the Committee believes that the\nNWS would derive significant long-term benefits from a broader and more\nintense effort to collaborate with the academic and industrial communities\nby sponsoring research and the development of new techniques. It would\nbe able to tap a wider reservoir of new ideas, and the broader community\nwould become aware of both the challenges and the opportunities involved\nin operating at the level of sophistication expected of the modernized NWS.\nPrivate Sector\nRecommendation: To ensure that the association between the National\nWeather Service and the private sector functions smoothly and efficiently\nto the best advantage of all parties, including the general public, the\nconstituent affairs activities of the National Weather Service should be\nstrengthened; the Constituent Affairs Officer should act as an ombudsman\nfor the private sector to the Assistant Administrator of the National Oceanic\nand Atmospheric Administration for Weather Services, coordinate program\nchanges with the private sector, obtain its inputs to National Weather\nService planning and evaluation, and arbitrate or resolve conflicts as they\narise.\nRecommendation: A Constituent Affairs Officer should be assigned to\neach of the four National Weather Service Regional Offices in the contigu-\nous 48 states until the completion of modernization and restructuring.\nRecommendation: The National Weather Service should develop detailed\nplans for evolution of the communication of data and products to the\nprivate sector (including the academic community) during modernization;\nsuch planning should be undertaken in collaboration with the user commu-\nnities.\nRecommendation: The Department of Commerce, in implementing the law\nto increase payments of user fees, should consult with the affected user\ncommunity to minimize the impact such increases will have on the vital\nweather services of this nation.\nNOAA Response: A vital element of NWS modernization is the External\nand Internal Communication Program. This program involves the design,\nexecution, monitoring, and evaluation of a systematic NWS effort to\nprovide a forum for external and internal technical coordination and com-\nmunication exchange which will help to achieve external and internal\n58","awareness, cooperation, and support for the end goals of the moderniza-\ntion. NWS must fully inform all affected individuals and organizations\nregarding the goals and objectives of the modernization and associated\nrestructuring, the changes that are planned, and a demonstration of the\ncapability to attain these goals. This can only be accomplished through\ncareful planning, good management, and close coordination between all\nlevels of staff, users, and other interested constituencies. These constituen-\ncies consist of: Congress, governors, other Federal agencies, private\nindustry users and equipment/software manufacturers, the scientific com-\nmunity, universities, cooperative institutes, the media, trade associations\nand professional societies, and the general public. Coordination with these\ngroups will take place in parallel on national, regional, state, and local\nlevels. In large measure, this coordination and interaction must and will\nbe accomplished by NOAA and NWS managers at all levels utilizing the\nexisting organizational structure. NOAA will, however, aggressively seek\nany additional resources necessary to successfully implement this important\nprogram.\nNOAA Update: Constituent Affairs Officers already have been assigned\nto three of the four NWS Regional Offices in the contiguous 48 states.\nCommittee Response: With respect to the private sector, NOAA's intent\nto improve communication and coordination seems appropriate. The\nresponse is not clear, however, concerning new resources. Nevertheless,\nthe Committee is pleased to learn that a Constituent Affairs Officer is being\nassigned to each of the four NWS Regional Offices in the contiguous\nstates. This officer should act as an ombudsman for the private sector\nwithin each region.\nPublic Institutions\nRecommendation: To ensure adequate community preparedness, profes-\nsional staff time equivalent to a full-time person should be provided at each\nWeather Forecast Office to work with state and local governments and\nother involved agencies in preparing plans for the community's response to\nsevere weather. To maintain liaison with public institutions and to assist\nin community preparedness, the federal government should consider retain-\ning, with limited staff, most Weather Service Offices now planned for\nclosure.\nNOAA Response: Each WFO will be staffed with a full-time Warning\n59","Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) who will interact with users in the\nWFO's area of responsibility. WCM preparedness responsibilities include:\ncreating and maintaining spotter networks; educating local government\nofficials about proper actions to protect life and property during severe\nweather; working with other Federal agencies and city, county, and state\nofficials in anticipating and conducting weather-related disaster prevention\noperations for the public safety; and working with the media in developing\npublic awareness of the threat of severe weather events and in devising the\nmost effective means for rapid warning dissemination. During severe\nweather outbreaks, the WCM will make sure that spotter networks are\nactivated and Emergency Operations Centers and other local agencies are\nnotified. The advisability of maintaining a local NWS presence after\ncertification, at least on a temporary basis, for most communities with an\nNWS office planned for closure is currently under consideration within\nDOC.\nNOAA Update: The WCM also will assess the critical information needs\nof the entire hazards community and develop operational methodologies and\ncapabilities to meet stated requirements within the constraints of the science\nand technology.\nCommittee Response: The response of NOAA is encouraging; the Com-\nmittee hopes that it may still be possible, with minimal staffing, to keep\nopen for some time in the future the Weather Service Offices (WSOs) now\nslated for closure.¹\nIMPLEMENTATION PROCESS\nPolicy and Procedures for Development of Systems,\nSystem Security\nRecommendation: The National Weather Service should establish overall\npolicies and procedures for the development of major systems, including\nconsideration of the interaction between systems, and establish software\ndevelopment and maintenance standards.\nRecommendation: The National Weather Service should satisfy itself that\nthe security of its data systems will be adequate to preclude a breakdown\nof critical services in the event of improper intervention, either intentional\nor inadvertent, in its data and communications systems.\n1 See also Chapter 1, page 8, \"Community Liaison and Education.\"\n60","NOAA Response: As the NRC report points out, NOAA relies on its\nsystem contractors to provide their own well-understood and tested stan-\ndards and methods. As a normal part of contract management, NOAA\nmonitors contractor compliance and performance very closely but will take\nthis recommendation to establish overall policies under advisement.\nNOAA looks forward to working with the NRC Committee in more detail\non system security in the coming year.\nCommittee Response: The Committee strongly reaffirms these two\nrecommendations. With the recent establishment of the new NOAA\nSystems Program Office, the Committee will monitor how well these two\nrecommendations are being addressed. Software documentation is of\ncritical importance, given the long time during which these new compo-\nnents will be in use. The Committee expects to study system security and\nresiliency in the near future. Both are critical in all components, but\nAWIPS is particularly vulnerable to improper intervention.\nTemporary Management and Project Staff\nRecommendation: The management and project staffs at National\nWeather Service headquarters, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-\ntration, and Department of Commerce administrative support should be\nincreased temporarily during the implementation of modernization by at\nleast 20 to 40 well-qualified people.\nRecommendation: The staff at each National Weather Service regional\noffice should be increased temporarily during the implementation of mod-\nernization by one to four people as required.\nNOAA Response: As a matter of policy, the NWS has adopted a manage-\nment philosophy for the transition that, to the maximum extent possible,\nutilizes the existing organizational structure to plan and implement all\ntransition activities. As the transition proceeds, ongoing operational\nsupport activities become inexorably linked to modernization activities.\nThis approach is particularly efficient since, as the new system programs\nmature, support for the corresponding existing systems that are being\nreplaced can be phased down and resources can be reallocated. However,\nNOAA recognizes that not all the resources necessary to accomplish the\ntransition can be reprogrammed internally. Program offices for each of the\nnew systems were established and included plans for the phased build-up\nand draw-down of staff commensurate with program maturity. Transition\nstaffs were established at NWS Headquarters and each of the NWS regional\n61","headquarters. Plans for expansion of these transition staffs are being\nimplemented. NOAA will continue to seek additional resources necessary\nto supplement existing staffs during the transition.\nCommittee Response: Although it may be too early, no significant\ntemporary augmentation of staff is apparent to the Committee. However,\nit is encouraged by NOAA's response that expansion of transition staff is\nbeing implemented and that additional resources will continue to be sought\nto supplement existing staff during the modernization transition.\nOperational Staff at Weather Forecast Offices\nRecommendation: The proposal to produce operational forecasts by\ncomputer that are equal to or better than current manually produced fore-\ncasts and warnings should be demonstrated for a variety of weather condi-\ntions and locations. The new procedures should be operational and their\nefficacy established before the meteorological staff at a Weather Forecast\nOffice is reduced to the proposed one person on the night shift. An alter-\nnate operational plan for staffing the night shift should be formulated for\nuse until the proposed concept has been fully developed and proven.\nRecommendation: As a part of the Modernization and Associated Restruc-\nturing Demonstration, the National Weather Service must thoroughly test\nthe concept of forecasts being automatically produced at night by using a\nfinal four-dimensional database.\nNOAA Response: All aspects of modernization and associated restruc-\nturing will be thoroughly tested through prototyping, risk-reduction activi-\nties, and operational demonstrations before being fully implemented into\nthe field environment. The ability to operate a WFO with a single meteo-\nrologist a shift requires systems capabilities, particularly in AWIPS, that\nwill not be present when the systems are initially deployed. The SO called\n\"AWIPS-deferred capabilities,\" as well as other system upgrades that will\npermit these productivity savings to be achieved, will be introduced into\nthe field offices in a carefully phased manner. After the introduction of\nthese system capabilities at several advanced development sites (e.g.,\nDenver), an assessment will be made of both the maturity of operations\n(systems, staff, training, etc.) and the ability to reduce staffing levels\nwithout degrading services. Only after a successful operational demon-\nstration will full field implementation take place and staff be drawn down\nto Strategic Plan target levels.\n62","Committee Response: The Committee is pleased with NOAA's assurance\nthat the reduced staffing level will not be implemented unless and until the\ntechnology and skills necessary to support operation with a single forecast-\ner have been demonstrated satisfactorily.\nCertification\nThe NRC Committee had not received a detailed certification plan to\nreview, and, therefore, the First Report provided no recommendations.\nThe report did, however, offer two initial observations by the NRC Com-\nmittee: \"First, specific comparisons of the quantity and quality of weather\ninformation, forecasts, warnings, and their prompt dissemination must be\nobtained, both during the Modernization and Associated Restructuring\nDemonstration and during the process of certifying the capabilities of any\nWFO to serve its area of responsibility. The Committee believes that\ncarefully constructed and unbiased comparisons will demonstrate a note-\nworthy improvement in the quality and accuracy of service. Second, to\nincrease the credibility of the certification process in the eyes of user\ngroups and Congress, it may be appropriate, at some stage, to involve an\nindependent evaluation of the statistical and analytical measures developed\nduring the initial operations of the WFOs as applied to each specific\ncertification.\"\nNOAA Response: NOAA continues to work closely with the NRC Com-\nmittee on this very important aspect of modernization and associated\nrestructuring. Since the NRC report was issued, NOAA has prepared\nseveral drafts of a certification plan and held working sessions with NRC\nCommittee members and staff to review the drafts in detail. Input and\nadvice obtained through these interactions are being used to modify the\ncertification plan. NOAA believes that the certification plan has evolved\nto the point where it is ready for full NRC Committee review and endorse-\nment.\nCommittee Response: The Committee continued to work with the NWS\non the certification plan throughout 1991. Indeed, certification is the main\ntopic of this report (see Chapter 3). The Committee looks forward to\nNOAA's response to the recommendations presented there.\n63","","Appendix C\nClimatological Considerations of the\nNational Weather Service\nModernization Program ¹\nPREFACE\nIn its first report, the Committee on the Modernization of the National\nWeather Service (NWS) raised concerns and made some recommendations\nregarding the impact of the NWS modernization on the viability and\nintegrity of the climate data record. The Committee asked the Climate\nResearch Committee (CRC) to examine the topic in detail. The following\nis a preliminary report on the CRC study.\nBACKGROUND\nThe CRC is in the midst of a one-year critical assessment of the\natmospheric observations and data management required to support climate\nand climate change research. The CRC expects to complete its final report\nduring the calendar year of 1992. At this time however, the CRC wel-\ncomes the opportunity to provide some early recommendations regarding\nthe implementation of various new observing systems within the NWS.\nThere is no doubt that the advent of several new observation systems\nwithin the NWS will lead to profound advances in our understanding of\nmeso-scale and synoptic-scale atmospheric processes. For example,\nobservations from a national network of Next Generation Weather Radars\n(NEXRAD, or WSR-88D) and atmospheric wind profilers will afford a\nview of the atmosphere not previously available to atmospheric scientists.\nThe introduction of the NWS's Automated Surface Observing System\n1 From the Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and\nClimate, National Research Council.\n65","(ASOS), anticipated to begin becoming operational in 1992, with a several-\nfold increase in the spatial coverage of the station network by 1995, will\nprovide a more comprehensive weather watch than is presently available.\nIn addition to their operational utility, these observation systems will be the\nfoundation of state-of-the-art research on atmospheric processes.\nA comprehensive understanding of the Earth's climate system and its\nfeedback to socioeconomic and biogeophysical systems, however, requires\nknowledge of atmospheric properties on various time and space scales. In\nearlier decades, climatologists used operational weather networks to define\nthe climate based on limited sampling strategies, such as 30-year normals\nof various time averages (diurnal, daily, monthly, seasonal, annual, etc.)\nfor various space scales (stations, climate divisions, hydrologic drainage\nbasins, etc.). Up until the last few decades, climate was generally viewed\nas a stationary system, stationary at least within one human lifetime.\nGiven this assumption, classical statistical sampling theory could be used\nto project the statistical ensemble of climate and weather over future time\nintervals. Over the past several decades however, and especially during the\nmost recent decade, climatologists and atmospheric scientists have argued\nthat a more dynamic climate system exists, one that accommodates various\nstatistical representations, including stable climate statistics such as those\nderived from 30-year climate normals. For example, a consensus is\nemerging in the science community that climate is not only subject to the\nrapid variations that can arise from a nonlinear chaotic system but also to\nchanges arising from human activities as well. For this reason, a new\nburden is placed on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-\ntion's (NOAA) operational observing systems. Specifically, these systems\nmust be able to provide the information necessary to document, detect, and\nhelp understand climate variation and change. In order to meet this chal-\nlenge it would be prudent, cost-effective, and practical to rely on the\ninfrastructure already developed for existing weather observing systems to\ncarry out this very important national and international responsibility, with\nthe recognition that part of this responsibility is demonstrating to an inter-\nnational community that both climate and operational weather requirements\ncan largely be met by an observing network justified primarily by opera-\ntional weather needs.\nThe CRC recognizes the considerable amount of information and\nknowledge that has already been learned about climate variation and change\nfrom NOAA's existing weather networks. However, the CRC is concerned\nabout a number of issues that, in order to fulfill a climate-related mission,\nshould be addressed by NOAA in the operation of observation systems and\n66","the management of data. The CRC notes a significant deterioration over\nthe past several decades of the infrastructure within NOAA to support basic\nmeasurements and management of data from existing weather networks.\nThis arises just at a time when these observations are becoming more\nimportant to scientists in the climate community as well as to the well-\nbeing of society. Introduction of new observing systems compounds the\nproblem. Special consideration of the long-term homogeneity of existing\nclimate records is especially important when major changes are introduced\ninto existing observation systems. Without such consideration, irreparable\ndamage to the climate record is likely, which can affect both climate\nstudies and climate change research.\nPRINCIPLES OF OBSERVING AND MANAGING DATA\nFOR CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH\nBecause observations of basic weather and climate variables will differ\nwith instrument exposure to nearby structures and terrain, sensor response\ncharacteristics, the time of observation, or the method of recording, care\nmust be taken to understand fully the ramifications of changing an instru-\nment, its site, or the routine of observation. The objective is to maintain\nregional representation of decades of uninterrupted observations of a\nchanging atmosphere. As a minimum requirement for new weather observ-\ning systems, the following general recommendations are offered:\nRecommendation: (1) Develop and apply standard procedures for collect-\ning side-by-side overlapping measurements for all potentially significant\nchanges made in observation and measurement techniques. This period of\noverlap should span at least one annual cycle.\nRecommendation: (2) Make routine assessments of ongoing calibration,\nmaintenance, and climate record homogeneity problems for which correc-\ntive action can be taken. Such assessments and subsequent actions must be\ndocumented and archived with the data.\nRecommendation: (3) Along with routine transmissions of observations,\nregularly (as opposed to ad hoc) schedule transmissions of station observa-\ntion and measurement practices, as well as local environmental conditions\nin the vicinity of the station, that are pertinent to the interpretation of the\nobservations and measurements. Station histories should be a mandatory\npart of the permanent data archive along with the measurements and\nobservations. They should be treated with importance equal to the data\nitself.\n67","Recommendation: (4) Ensure that network designers and instrument\nengineers are provided climate requirements at the outset of network design\nand instrument design.\nRecommendation: (5) Develop, wherever feasible, some level of \"low-\ntechnology\" backup to \"high-technology\" observing systems to safeguard\nagainst unexpected operational failures (power interruptions, lack of\nreplacement parts, etc.).\nRecommendation: (6) Archive raw data sensed from the instruments prior\nto transformation into standard atmospheric variables or products along\nwith the processed data and processing algorithms.\nRecommendation: (7) Restrict the number of station relocations to an\nabsolute minimum.\nRecommendation: (8) Discontinue observations of atmospheric variables\nwith a long historical record (spanning many decades) only after a thor-\nough evaluation of the impact on the climate record.\nRecommendation: (9) Develop standard data packages that fully describe\nall algorithms, averaging procedures, quality control, homogeneity checks,\nand corrections that have been applied to the derived data. This now\nincludes quantities such as temperature or precipitation, which can now be\nmeasured indirectly.\nIn addition to these general principles there are a number of specific\nrecommendations relevant to existing and planned observing networks\nwithin the NWS.\nAUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM\nThe CRC is concerned that present and planned surface observations\nof cloud types and cloud cover, present weather, snowfall and water\nequivalent, total sunshine, radiation fluxes and turbidity may be insufficient\nto support future climate studies. An assessment of these needs and the\nability of station personnel and ASOS to meet them is underway by the\nCRC. It is clear, nonetheless, that ASOS operations should meet long-term\ncontinuity and comparability standards for climate research.\nRecommendation: (1) Side-by-side comparisons of all new instruments\nand observing procedures should be made at a diversity of climate types\nover the course of at least one annual cycle, depending on the time re-\nquired to quantify inhomogeneities that may be introduced into the climate\nrecord.\n68","Recommendation: (2) The reliability of the precipitation measurements\nby the Automated Surface Observing System should be tested in side-by-side\ncomparisons with existing instruments. A comprehensive assessment of\ninstrument bias for various rainfall rates and precipitation states should be\npublished and widely distributed. Data should be archived prior, as well\nas subsequent, to the application of built-in adjustment factors, including\nthose used for heavy precipitation rates.\nUPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS\nUpper air observations have been vital in climate research, and the\nrawinsonde network has been the mainstay. New remote sensing wind and\ntemperature profiler systems are vastly different from the instruments and\nin situ observing methods of the rawinsonde. Further analysis by the CRC\nis in progress to determine how to overcome or compensate for these\ndifferences for the benefit of climate research. The CRC is concerned that\nlong-term records may be in jeopardy.\nRecommendation: (1) Copies of upper air station histories stored at field\nlocations, regional offices, and National Weather Service headquarters\nshould be in a permanent archive. These metadata should be made easily\naccessible to the researcher.\nRecommendation: (2) The type of instruments flown, as well as the manu-\nfacturer, should be reported along with the data.\nCOOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM\nRecommendation: (1) Develop a policy to assess biases introduced by\nstation relocation or changes in instrumentation, and develop and deploy\na standard observing system to be operated by part-time volunteer observ-\ners that meets accuracy and reliability requirements for climate data.\nRecommendation: (2) Quantify the biases introduced by the Maximum-\nMinimum Temperature System relative to the liquid-in-glass thermometric\nmeasurements obtained in Cotton Region shelters. This is likely to be\nheterogeneous over various weather regimes and should be quantified on\nthis basis.\nRecommendation: (3) Quantify the bias associated with unshielded\nprecipitation measurements. This bias is likely to be heterogeneous over\nvarious weather regimes and should be quantified on this basis.\n69","Recommendation: (4) Wherever and whenever possible, conduct overlap-\nping simultaneous measurements when there is a necessity to change\nobservation sites. The simultaneous measurements could be discontinued\nwhen the impact of the change can be quantified. The National Weather\nService Operations Manual (Section B-11) recommends overlapping obser-\nvations for a period of one to three years. A rededicated commitment to\nthis procedure is required. In an operational environment, this may not\nalways be possible. For this reason it is advisable to operate a dense\nnetwork of stations designed so that occasional station losses will not badly\ndegrade climatic analyses. The trend over the past two decades of moving\ntoward fewer and fewer temperature monitoring sites should be stopped or\nreversed.\nRecommendation: (5) Site stability needs to be a key criterion in the\nselection of new sites. National parks should be ideal candidates for sites\nnot likely to undergo substantial changes.\nRecommendation: (6) Every effort must be applied to protect the sites and\ndata sets in the network that have provided the crucial, long-term, consis-\ntent measurements utilized to assess climate change within the United\nStates. The cooperative observer program should develop a prioritized list\nof network sites for preservation and continuation based on their contribu-\ntion to climate change assessment.\nRecommendation: (7) Every effort should be made to implement the\ntechnology to retain maximum and minimum temperature measurements on\na midnight-to-midnight basis.\nRecommendation: (8) Routine reports of each station's operations should\nbe included with the monthly data sent to the archives. Ad hoc reporting\nof changes leads to questions regarding the quality of the station histories.\nCONTINUING WORK\nThe CRC is currently assessing other observation capabilities and data\nmanagement systems, such as the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) Doppler radar,\nthat relate to weather service operations. Further recommendations by the\nCRC will be forthcoming as a result of its continuing examination of\nclimate observation requirements and current technological advancements.\n70","Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate\nCLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE\nERIC J. BARRON, Earth System Science Center, Pennsylvania State\nUniversity, Chairman\nBYRON BOVILLE, National Center for Atmospheric Research\nKIRK BRYAN, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,\nPrinceton University\nGEORGE F. CARRIER, Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard\nUniversity\nROBERT D. CESS, Laboratory for Planetary Atmospheres Research,\nState University of New York\nWILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,\nGeorgia Institute of Technology\nMICHAEL GHIL, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of\nCalifornia, Los Angeles\nTHOMAS R. KARL, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center\nDOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory,\nColumbia University\nSOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, Department of Hydrology and Water\nResources, University of Arizona\nLYNNE D. TALLEY, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University\nof California, San Diego\nEx-Officio Members\nChairman, Ocean Climate Research Committee\nD. JAMES BAKER, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.\nChairman, TOGA Advisory Panel\nJAGADISH SHUKLA, Department of Meteorology (COLA), University\nof Maryland\nStaff\nWILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Staff Director, BASC\n71","","Appendix D\nExchange of Letters on New\nMeteorologist Standards","NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL\nCOMMISSION ON ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL SYSTEMS\n2101 Consultation Avenue\nWashington. D.C. 20418\n(202) 334-2856\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\nMODERNIZATION COMMITTEE\n(202) 334.3279\nMay 31, 1991\nThe Honorable John A. Knauss\nUndersecretary for Oceans and Atmosphere\nU.S. Department of Commerce, Room 5128\n14th Street and Constitution Avenue, N.W.\nWashington, D.C. 20230\nDear John:\nIn its review of plans for the modernization and restructuring of the\nNational Weather Service (NWS), the National Weather Service Modernization\nCommittee (NWSMC) has been examining the future education and training of\nNWS personnel. The NWSMC was pleased to learn of the development of\nproposed revised standards for the GS-1340 Meteorologist series (grade GS-5\nand above) in the federal government (copy enclosed). The Committee\nbelieves that the proposed standards represent a positive step in establish-\ning a sounder educational foundation for operational meteorologists required\nin the era of the modernized and restructured NWS. As the report of the\nNWSMC, Toward a New National Weather Service--A First Report (pp 15-16)\nstates: \"Modernization requires taking advantage of the collective skills\nof a highly trained cadre of professional meteorologists; and the develop-\nment of effective new applications of atmospheric knowledge to ensure the\ncontinuing evolution of weather service capabilities in the decades ahead.\"\nIt is our understanding that the proposed standards were coordinated\nwith managers from other federal agencies that also hire meteorologists and\nsubmitted recently to the personnel specialists in the Department of\nCommerce prior to their transmission to the Office of Personnel Management.\nThe NWSMC learned at its meeting May 13-14, 1991, that the Department of\nCommerce personnel specialists are concerned about including calculus as a\nprerequisite or corequisite for courses in atmospheric dynamics and thermo-\ndynamics, differential equations, and physics. The skills, knowledge, and\nprofessional growth of NWS forecasters in the modernization era will require\nthat they have mastery of physics and atmospheric dynamics and thermodynam-\nics; this mastery cannot be attained unless their education in these\nsubjects is based on calculus. Therefore, the Committee wanted to call this\nmatter to your attention; we hope you will be able to resolve any difficulty\nthat may exist in the Department of Commerce regarding this requirement.\nSincerely,\nCharlie\nCharles L. Hosler, Jr.\nChairman\nEnclosure\nElbert W. Friday, Jr., NOAA/NWS\nC:\nThe\nNational Research Council is the principal operating agency of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering\n10 serve government and other organisations\n74","GS-1340\nMETEOROLOGY\nGS-5/above\nBasic Requirements\nCandidates must show successful completion of a full course of\nstudy leading to a bachelor's degree in an accredited college or\nuniversity which has included or been supplemented by:\n(1) At least 24 semester (36 quarter) hours of credit in\nmeteorology including:\na. 6 semester hours of atmospheric dynamics and\nthermodynamics with calculus as a prerequisite or\ncorequisite;\nb. 6 semester hours of analysis and prediction of\nweather systems (synoptic/mesoscale) i\nC. 3 semester hours of physical meteorology;\nd. 2 semester hours of remote sensing of the atmosphere\nand/or instrumentation.\n(2) A course in differential equations which has a\nprerequisite of at least two semesters of calculus.\n(3) 6 semester hours of physics with calculus as a\nprerequisite or corequisite. At least one course must\ninclude laboratory sessions.\n(4) 3 semester hours of computer science appropriate for\na physical science major.\n(5)\n6 semester hours of course work appropriate for a\nphysical science major selected from a combination of\nat least two of the following topics: physical\nhydrology, statistics, chemistry, physical\noceanography, and physical climatology.\n75","U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\nSilver Spring. Md 20910\nOF\nAUG 2 1991\nMr. Charles L. Hosler, Jr.\nNational Research Council\nCommission on Engineering\nand Technical Systems\n2101 Constitution Ave.\nWashington, D.C. 20418\nDear Charlie,\nThank you for your letter to Dr. John A. Knauss regarding the\nstatus of our efforts to modify the current Federal qualification\nrequirements for meteorologists and related concerns you raised\nin your recent letter.\nFirst, let me assure you that the National Oceanic and\nAtmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather\nService (NWS) are fully pursuing the academic standards for\nhiring meteorologists as they were originally proposed last year.\nOur target implementation date remains as October of 1993. We\nfirmly believe in the need for calculus as a prerequisite or\ncorequisite for courses in physics, differential equations, and\natmospheric dynamics or thermodynamics to increase the scientific\nskills and knowledge which will be required of employees in the\nmodernized NWS.\nOne of the concerns raised by personnel specialists within the\nDepartment of Commerce was over the ability for personnelists to\naccurately identify those courses which are based in calculus\nwhen there is no clear indication as to whether calculus is a\nbasis of the course. Another unrelated concern was over the lack\nof an alternate standard by which in-house meteorological\ntechnicians could be judged for conversion to professional\nstatus. We are working on solutions for both of these concern\nareas, and we do not envision that the end result of these\nefforts will affect the proposed academic standards in any way.\nOur efforts on this new standard are on-track, and we appreciate\nthe support we have received from the Committee in its\nimplementation.\nSincerely,\nElbert W. Friday, Jr.\nAssistant Administrator\nfor Weather Services\nDOAR\n76","Acronyms\nAFOS\nAutomation of Field Operations and Services\nASOS\nAutomated Surface Observing System\nAWIPS\nAdvanced Weather Interactive Processing System\nCOMET\nCooperative Program for Operational Meteorology,\nEducation and Training\nCRC\nClimate Research Committee of the Board on\nAtmospheric Sciences and Climate, NRC\nDAR3E\nDenver AWIPS Risk Reduction and Requirements\nEvaluation\nDOC\nU.S. Department of Commerce\nEFF\nExperimental Forecast Facility\nFAA\nFederal Aviation Administration\nGOES-Next\nNext Generation Geostationary Operational\nEnvironmental Satellite\nMARD\nModernization and Associated Restructuring\nDemonstration\nMIC\nMeteorologist-in-Charge\nNESDIS\nNational Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information\nService\nNEXRAD\nNext Generation Weather Radar\nNOAA\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nNRC\nNational Research Council\nNSSL\nNational Severe Storms Laboratory\nNWS\nNational Weather Service\nNWSMC\nNational Weather Service Modernization Committee\nPROFS\nProgram for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services\nRFC\nRiver Forecast Center\nSPO\nSystems Program Office of NOAA\n77","Warning Coordination Meteorologist\nWCM\nWeather Forecast Office\nWFO\nWeather Service Forecast Office\nWSFO\nWeather Service Office\nWSO\nWeather Service Radar-1988 design Doppler\nWSR-88D\n78","NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS\nThe National Academy Press was created by the\nNational Academy of Sciences to publish the reports\nissued by the Academy and by the National Academy\nof Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the\nNational Research Council, all operating under the\ncharter granted to the National Academy of Sciences\nby the Congress of the United States."]}