{"Bibliographic":{"Title":"Climate Analysis Center FY 1990 Annual Report","Authors":"","Publication date":"1990","Publisher":""},"Administrative":{"Date created":"08-16-2023","Language":"English","Rights":"CC 0","Size":"0000177086"},"Pages":["NHC\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nFY 1990\nANNUAL REPORT\nU.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nNational Weather Service\nQC\nNational Meteorological Center\n851\n.C5\nC55\nFEB 25 1991","QC\n851\nattachment OF COMMERCIAL\nC5\nC55\n*\n*\nAvenue\nSTATES\nOF\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nFY 1990\nANNUAL REPORT\nTECHNICAL EDITOR: L. P. MANNELLO\nJanuary 1991\nATIONAL OCEANIC NATIONAL AND ATMOSPHERIC COMMERCE ADMINISTRATION\nU.S. DEPARTMENT OF\nWEATHER SERVICE\nNATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER\n1320 NOAA South Coral Gables Library\nCoral Dixie Highway, Room Center 520\nGables, Florida 33146\n1714","TABLE OF CONTENTS\nPage\nSTAFF OF THE CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nii\nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY\niii\n1. CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS\n1\n1.1 Tropical Ocean/Atmosphere Interaction\n1\n1.2\nCirculation Diagnostics\n5\n2. CLIMATE MONITORING\n17\n2.1\nSurface Climate\n17\n2.2\nClouds and Precipitation\n21\n2.3\nAtmospheric Circulation\n27\n2.4\nOperational Products\n27\n3.\nOCEAN\nCLIMATE ANALYSES\n31\n3.1\nOcean Diagnostics and Monitoring\n31\n3.2 Operational Products\n32\n4.\nSTRATOSPHERE AND TRACE GASES\n33\n4.1\nField Analysis\n33\n4.2\nOzone/Temperature Trends\n34\n4.3\nOperational Products\n36\n5.\nAPPLIED\nCLIMATOLOGY\n39\n5.1\nSurface Data\n39\n5.2\nAgricultural Applications\n43\n5.3\nClimate Impacts: Monitoring\n43\n5.4\nOperational Products\n48\n5.5\nSupporting Projects\n49\n6. CLIMATE\nPREDICTION\n55\n6.1\nEmpirical Studies\n55\n6.2\nDynamical Methods\n57\n6.3\nEvaluation\n63\n6.4\nOperational Products\n63\n6.5\nSupporting Projects\n67\n7. SUMMARIES\n69\n7.1\nClimate and Global Change Program\n69\n7.2\nTOGA Activities\n69\n7.3\nEPOCS Activities\n69\n7.4\nBilateral Activities\n70\n7.5\nWorld Climate Program Activities\n70\n7.6\nNational Weather Service Programs\n71\n7.7 Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshops\n72\n8.\nBIBLIOGRAPHY\n73\n8.1\nJournal Articles\n73\n8.2\nArticles in Non-Refereed Literature\n75\n8.3\nPresentations at Formal Scientific Meetings\n79\n8.4\nSeminars and Briefings\n83\n8.5\nGrant/Contract Program\n86\n8.6\nCAC-Sponsored Seminar Series\n87\n8.7\nVisitors\n92\ni","STAFF OF THE CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nOFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR\nDirector, D. R. Rodenhuis\nSecretary, G. S. Lucas\nE. S. Epstein\nA. L. Leetmaa\nL. P. Mannello\nE. C. Michaelides\nANALYSIS & INFORMATION BRANCH\nPREDICTION BRANCH\n1\nChief H. M. van den Dool\nChief, J. D. Laver\nSecretary, A. C. Kellar\nSecretary, V. Mershon\n4\nAnderson 2\nN. L. Canfield\nJ.\nR. H. Churchill\nA.\nArtusa\nJ. M.\nDionne\nA. G.\nBarnston\nG. G.\nFulwood\nW- Y.\nChen\n3\nW.\nEbisuzaki\nM. E.\nGelman\nJ.\nHarrison\nJ.\nFeng\n3\nJ.\nA.\nHerman\nHoopingarner\n3\nR.\nHolasek\nF. D.\nHughes\nD.\nKann\nR. E.\nLivezey\n3\nS.\nKatz\nE. A.\nO'Lenic\nM.\nKnezevic\nR.\nSchechter\nR. L.\nLehman\nM. S. Tracton\nA. J.\nMiller\nA. J. Wagner\nD.\nMiskus\nR. M.\nNagatani\nDIAGNOSTICS BRANCH\n3\nChief, C. F. . Ropelewski\nE.\nOngurer\nV. L.\nPatterson\nSecretary, P. Davis\nP.\nSabol\nL. K.\nThomas\nJ. D. Bell\n3\nR. J.\nTinker\nM.\nChelliah\n3\nS- K.\nYang\nD. B. Davidowicz\nD. R.\nGarrett\nM. S.\nHalpert\nAGRICULTURAL WEATHER SECTION\nJ. E.\nJanowiak\n3\nChief, D. M. LeComte\nM.\nJi\nSecretary, J. Houston\nJ. D.\nKopman\nV. E.\nKousky\n3\nV.\nBjerknes\nA.\nKumar\n3\n0. W.\nByrd\nT.\nLee\nT. R. Heddinghaus\nD. C. Marsico\nR.\nStefanski\nK. C.\nMo\n4\nE. M.\nRasmusson\nReynolds\nR. W.\n3\nRui\nH.\nT.\nSmith2\nJ.\nWang:\nWard3\nK.\n1. Intergovernmental Personnel Apointment\n3. Contractor\n4. Research Associate, CICS\n2. Visiting Scientist\nii","EXECUTIVE SUMMARY\nThe increasing awareness of global change issues has added another\ndimension to the climate information, monitoring, and prediction programs of the\nClimate Analysis Center.\nCLIMATE INFORMATION - A new publication was produced in collaboration\nwith the National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS. It is entitled: Climate\nAssessment for 1989 - Selected Indicators of Global Climate. Plans are being\ndeveloped to expand this publication with information from other organizations\nto increase our monitoring of climate impacts. Two other relatively new climate\nand weather publications have received the attention of NOAA--the Weather and\nClimate Update, a weekly summary for the U.S.; and PRESTO, a monthly summary of\nlocal climate anomalies. In addition, CAC scientists had 75 articles published\nand made 44 presentations at formal scientific meetings during the year.\nThe Climate Dial-Up Service (part of the NWS Family of Services) now has\nmore than 300 subscribers and supports access to national and international\nnetworks. Also, A new electronic connection to the Joint Agricultural Weather\nFacility (JAWF) at the USDA has greatly improved the availablity of products for\ncrop assessment. A complete list of CAC products follows this summary.\nCLIMATE MONITORING - The core of the climate monitoring program is the\ndetection of global climate anomalies on the time scale of weeks to years.\nCurrent attention is directed to the equatorial Pacific where the cold phase of\nthe ENSO has evolved towards higher sea surface temperatures and related indices\nof pressure, surface winds, and convection. The CAC has issued 7 ENSO\nAdvisories, and continues to monitor oceanic and atmospheric indices for the\npossible development of a warm ENSO event in the coming year.\nA numerical model of the Tropical Pacific Ocean is currently used to\nassimilate sparse oceanic observations for the assessment of ENSO oceanic\nconditions. This is an important and unique component in our monitoring program\nand is a prerequisite for developing a prediction capability by numerical\nmethods. Also, a new higher resolution SST analysis has been produced using the\noptimum interpolation method. These daily SST analyses will be used to support\nthe operational ocean modeling effort and to the specify the lower boundary\nconditions for the MRF model.\nThe CAC is developing a program for global climate monitoring using\nremote-sensing data Current products include: out-going long wave radiation,\nglobal precipitation, sea surface temperatures, and ozone analyses and trends.\nThe new challenge is to use these data to detect trends in climate indices as\nwell as temporal and spatial variations. This will be our contribution to the\nWMO/Climate Change Detection Project. In particular, indices, based on AVHRR\ndata, were used to identify a record minimum (since 1965) in NH snow cover.\nAlso, a 5-year data set of Vegetation Index (VI) was constructed from AVHRR data\nto help detect anomalies and trends in the surface vegetation. Video cassettes\nof VI, SST, precipitation, and a drought index were prepared for the upcoming\nWMO/Second World Climate Conference and a briefing for the NOAA Administrator.\nCLIMATE PREDICTION - One of the most challenging situations faced by CAC/\nPrediction Branch forecasters was the U.S. seasonal temperature forecast for the\n1989-90 winter. This forecast was accurate in the populous eastern United\nStates, which experienced one of the coldest Decembers on record, yet the\niii","December 1989-February 1990 period was above normal overall. Both of these\nevents were correctly predicted. This guidance was presented at an emergency\nmeeting of energy decision-makers, called by the U.S. Department of Energy on\nDecember 23, 1989 at the height of the cold outbreak. The operational\nprediction program has been improved by automating present forecast procedures\nSO that a full scope of forecast tools are available to 6-10 day, 30-day, and\n90-day forecasters.\nNew methods are being investigated to develop numerical products for\nCAC's Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks. CAC scientists participated in an\ninternational workshop at NCAR and are collaborating in a number of NOAA-wide\nefforts (e.g. the DERF Project) CAC now publishes its own empirical ENSO\nforecast along with two extramural forecast results (Cane; O'Brien) in its\nClimate Diagnostics Bulletin. For the first time, a coupled (tropical) model\nhas been run on the NMC computer. Our long-term goal is to use an ocean/\natmosphere coupled model for ENSO prediction.\nSpecial efforts are also underway at CAC to study global climate events\nthat have social and economic impact. These include: the cause of the 1988 U.S.\ndrought, the numerical simulation of the Asian Monsoon, and the development of a\nprogram to monitor and predict African climate anomalies.\nNATIONAL PROGRAMS - As part of NOAA's operating plan, a Climate Services\nManagement Council was formed with inter-NOAA participation. They have met and\ncommissioned a \"NOAA Climate Services Plan\" which describes the vision in\nclimate services in the next decade. The CAC is collaborating with the NCDC on\nthe development of this Plan. In the NOAA research effort, the CAC is a\nparticipant in a number of projects under the NOAA Climate and Global Change\nProgram. These include: Ozone (with ERL), Vegetation Index (with NESDIS),\nClimate Data Assimilation System (with NMC), Diagnostics (with ERL),\nPerspectives (with NCDC), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (WMO/WCRP\nsponsorship). In addition, preparations have been made for three new projects\nwhich will take us into the next decade. They are: Dynamical Extended-Range\nForecast (with NMC/Development Division, NOAA/GFDL and ERL/Climate Research\nDivision), Regional Climate Centers Programs, and Data Management.\nINTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES - The global nature of climate continues to\ninfluence our international activities. CAC personnel actively participated in\nthe I.S./USSR bilateral agreement with working visits to Moscow; in the\nU.S./Brazil bilateral agreement with the visit of 4 Brazilian scientists, the\norganization of a Numerical Weather Prediction Workshop and in the development\nof the NMC South American desk. Other contributions were made to the IPCC and\nto the WMO/World Climate Program, especially in the Climate Change Detection\nProject, Global Precipitation Climatology Project, and for the Global Energy and\nWater Experiment (GEWEX) Participation continues in both the TOGA and EPOCS\nProjects, the International Ozone Commission, and the AID/Famine Early Warning\nSystem (FEWS) CAC staff also participated in the activities of the WMO\nCommission on Climatology, the Commission on the Atmospheric Sciences, and the\nWorld Climate Research Program.\nI would like to conclude this Summary with an acknowledgement to the\nentire CAC staff for making the above accomplishments possible.\nDavid R. Rodenhuis\nDirector, CAC\niv","CAC PRODUCTS\nWEEKLY CLIMATE BULLETIN\nSPECIAL CLIMATE BULLETINS\nDROUGHT ADVISORIES\nCLIMATE DIAL-UP SERVICE\nOUTPUT FILE FOR FAX, TELETYPE, AFOS\nPUBLIC INFORMATION\nDAILY WEATHER MAPS\nWEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN\nSPECIAL AGRICULTURE BULLETINS\nWEEKLY AGRICULTURE ASSESSMENT BRIEFINGS\nGLOBAL HEIGHT ANALYSES (70 - 0.4 MB)\nGLOBAL OZONE ANALYSES (30 - 0.4 MB)\nCLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS BULLETIN\nMONTHLY GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC AND\nOCEANIC ANALYSES\nENSO ADVISORIES\nSEASONAL REVIEW ARTICLE (JOC)\nMEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK (6-10 DAY)\nMONTHLY OUTLOOK (SEMI-MONTHLY)\nSEASONAL OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)\nCLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS WORKSHOP (ANNUAL)\nV","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\nvi","1. CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS\nTropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction\n1.1\n1.1.1 Tropical Surface and Momentum Fluxes (Reynolds, Marsico)\nTropical Pacific surface winds from the PMEL buoys have been inserted\ninto the NMC surface analyses and the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model since\nMarch 1990. Techniques have been developed to monitor the difference between\nthe surface winds from the MRF and the buoy winds. Weekly statistics (means,\nstandard deviations and rms differences) are now computed between the two types\nof winds at the buoy locations and are being sent to PMEL, SO that the accuracy\nof the buoy winds can be maintained. Figure 1 shows a progressive vector\ncomparison between the NMC/MRF winds and the buoy winds at 5°N and 110°W.\nDuring the first month and a half, both winds were mainly zonal, although the\nMRF winds were noticeably weaker. After this period, the meridional components\nbecame larger and the directions also differed. At other locations and times,\nthe zonal components tend to agree better than the meridional components. The\nagreement between the modeled winds and the buoy winds also tends to be better\nin areas with smoothly varying wind fields, i.e., in regions in the middle of\nthe southeast and northeast trades.\n1.1.2 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling (Kousky)\nThe primary goal of this research is to develop an understanding of the\nevolution of the Southern Oscillation in the ocean/atmosphere coupled system.\nToward this goal, a study was performed to relate sea surface temperature (SST)\nanomalies with mid-tropospheric (500 mb) temperature and upper tropospheric\ngeopotential height anomalies. Results indicate that the 500 mb temperature\nanomalies, either zonally-averaged or regionally-averaged in the tropics, lag\nthe SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific by three to five months\n(figure 2). The results for 200 mb heights are similar (figure 3). The lag\nbetween upper tropospheric height and SST anomalies increases from the tropics\nto the subtropics, with subtropical latitudes lagging the tropics by six to ten\nmonths (figure 4).\nThis lagged relationship suggests that even though tropical sea surface\ntemperatures return to near normal, the atmospheric circulation anomalies\ncharacteristic of previous warm or cold episodes linger on. Also, as the\nheating associated with a warm episode spreads to subtropical latitudes, it may\nserve to amplify mid-latitude upper level ridges and contribute to persistent\nanomalies at these latitudes. For example, the anomalously strong and persist-\nent upper-level ridge, which developed over North America during Spring 1988,\nmay have been amplified by the existence of the abnormally warm subtropical\nlatitudes that resulted from the previous warm episode. However, the correla-\ntion analysis and recent studies reveal that the mid-latitude anomaly patterns\nover North America are not consistent from one warm (or cold) episode to the\nnext. The results were presented at a Drought Workshop (University of Maryland)\nand will be included in a paper for the upcoming Meeting of the VI Brazilian\nMeteorological Congress (November 1990).\n1","COMPARISON NMC AND BUOY WINDS\n32315\n5.0N, 110.0W\nMAR 01 1990 to JUN 23 1990\n-200-180-160-140-120-100\n-80\n-60\n-40\n-20\n0\n20\n-\n180\n180\n160\n160\n140\n140\n120\n120\n100\n100\n80\n80\n60\n60\n40\n40\n2\n20\n20\n0\n0\n0\n-20\n-20\n-40\n-40\n-200-180-160-140-120-100\n-80\n-60\n-40\n-20\n0\n20\nEASTWARD DISPLACEMENT (DEG LON)\nFigure 1 Daily progressive vector diagram for surface winds from the NMC\nforecast model (solid curve) and the TOGA Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean\nmooring (dotted curve) at 5°N, 110°W. The period of record is March\n1 through June 23, 1990. The numbers on the curves indicate the\nnumber of 30 day periods relative to \"0\" which is the starting point\nof the record.\n2","2.0\n1.5\n1.0\n0.5\n0.0\n-0.5\n-1.0\n-1.5\n-2.0\n73\n60\n81\n02\n83\n84\n05\n86\n87\nse\n89\n90\nYEAR\nFigure 2 Time series of zonally-averaged monthly 500-mb temperature anomalies\nfor 20°N-20°S. Anomalies (°C) are computed with respect to the\n1979-1988 base-period means.\n3.0\n60\n(a)\n2.0\n40\n(b)\n1.0\n20\n0.0\n-1.0\n-20\n-2.0\n-3.0\n-CO\n79\n80\n81\n62\n03\n84\n05\n66\n81\n88\n09\n90\nYEARS\nFigure 3 Time series of zonally averaged 200 mb height anomalies (a) and\nequatorial central Pacific (ship track 6) sea surface temperature\nanomalies (b). . Height (SST) anomalies are computed with respect to\nthe 1979-1988 (1951-1980) - base period means. height (SST) anomalies\nare read on the right (left) axis and are in units of m (°C).\n3","-11\n-10\n-9\n-8\n-7\n-6\n-5\n-4\n-3\n-20.0\n-2\n60.0\n0\n70.0\n-10.0\n80.0\n2\n3\n4\n5\n6\n7\n8\n0\n10\n! I\n75S 60S 455 30S 15S EQ\nSP\n15N\n30N\n45N\n60N\n75N\nNP\nCorrelation between anomalous sea surface temperature in the central\nFigure 4\nequatorial Pacific and zonally averaged anomalous 200 mb height as a\nfunction of both lag (months) and latitude. Negative correlations\nare indicated by dashed contours. Positive (negative) lags indicate\nthat 200 mb height anomalies have been shifted backward (forward) in\ntime with respect to the SST anomalies. The maximum correlation\nalong the equator at 4-5 months indicates that the SST anomalies\nlead the 200 mb height anomalies by 4-5 months.\n4","A study was also completed on the relationship between sea level pressure\nvariations and oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. Results showed that\nbasin-wide, in-phase sea level oscillations are negatively correlated with sea\nlevel pressure variations associated with atmospheric intraseasonal oscilla-\ntions. These and other results were presented at an International Conference on\nSouthern Hemisphere Meteorology.\n1.1.3 Southern Oscillation Patterns (Halpert, Ropelewski)\nA study was completed that examined temperature patterns associated with\nthe extremes of the Southern Oscillation (SO). Twelve regions were found to\nhave low SO-temperature relationships, while 11 areas were found to have high\nSO-temperature relationships (figure 5). Of these areas, 9 have relationships\nduring both phases of the SO. In the tropics, temperature anomalies are of the\nsame sign as the sea surface temperature anomaly in all regions except for one\narea in the west Pacific. The identified temperature responses are more\nconsistent in tropical regions than in the extratropics. The above results were\ndescribed in a paper that was submitted for publication (Journal of Climate).\n1.1.4 ENSO Prediction (Ropelewski, Barnston)\nExperiments are being conducted for E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)\nprediction using modifications of a statistical technique (developed by T.\nBarnett, et al, Scripps Institution of Oceanography). This technique is called\nthe canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and it is being used to predict the sea\nsurface temperature (SST) for an area in the central Pacific from 5°N to S°S,\n120 W to 170°W. CCA predictions have been made routinely since November 1989\nand appear in CAC's Monthly Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.\nAn example of the CCA forecasts (1, 2 and 3-season lead) of SST and cor-\nresponding cross-validation skill scores is shown in figure 6. The skills (cor-\nrelations that correspond to the observed and predicted SST are shown in the\nright hand column These correlations (skills) show a clear annual cycle, which\nis reflected by the error bars in the forecast time series on the left. The CCA\nforecasts appear to be most skillful in the Northern Hemisphere from late summer\nthrough early fall. Other numerical ocean-atmosphere models show the same\ngeneral seasonality in their forecast skill. This suggests an inherent\nseasonality in the predictability of ENSO independent of a prediction technique.\n1.2 Circulation Diagnostics\n1.2.1 Large Scale Tropical Circulations (Mo)\nA study was conducted on the atmospheric teleconnection dynamics during\nthe 1987-89 ENSO cycle. Based on NMC analyses, the nature of the upper tropo-\nspheric divergent circulation was investigated and the results were compared to\nidealized concepts of regional Hadley cells and Walker circulations. It was\nfound that NMC-analyzed divergent winds are realistic enough to provide useful\ninformation on seasonal conditions and year-to-year variations. For seasonal-\nmean features and ENSO-related departures, the largest vorticity sources are\nfound in the subtropics and low mid-latitudes associated with the descending\nbranches of the Hadley cell circulations (see figure 7). The 1987-89 ENSO\n5","00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\n80W\n60W\n40W 20W\n1\nNOV(0)-MAR(+),\nCOLD\nD\n60N\n60N\n44\n50N\n50N\nFEB(+)-MAY(+)\nNOV (0) -MAY(+)\nCOLD\n40N\n40N\nCOLD\n30N\n30N\nIn.\n20N\nJUL (0) -JUN(+)\nJUL(0)-JUN(+).6\n20N\nJUL (0) JUN(\nAPR(0)-OCT(0)\nCOLD\nCOLD\nION\nON\nCOLD\n0\nCOLD\nEQ\nEQ\n10S\nAUG(0)-JUN(+\nMAY(0)-APR(+)\n10S\nCOLD\nCOLD\n20S\nx\nJAN(0)-NOV(0)\n20S\nu\nWARM\n30S\n305\nOCT(0)-MAY(+)\n405\nNOV(0)-JUN(+)\n40S\nCOLD\na\nWARM\n50S\n50S\n1\nla\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W 20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\n80W\n60W\n40W\n20W\ns\nDEC (0) -MAR(+)\n60N\nA\n60N\nWARM\nDEC (0)\nMAY(+)\n50N\n50N\nWARM\n-\nOCT(0)-FEB(+)\nOCT (0) -MAR(0)\n63N\n40N\nWARM\nCOLD\n30N\n30N\n0.00\n20N\nOCT(0)-JUN(+)\n20N\nJUL (0) JJN(+)\nWARM\n10N\nDEC(0)-JUN(+)\nWARM\nION\nWARM\nEQ\nEQ\n10S\nMAY(0)-APR(+)\n10S\nOCT (0)-JUN(+)\nWARM\n20S\nWARM\nJAN(0)-NOV(0)\n20S\nMAY (0) -OCT(0)\nCOLD\n30S\nCOLD\n30S\nMAY (0) APR(+)\n405\n40S\nWARM\nb\nNOV(0)-JUN(+)\n50S\n50S\nWARM\nT\nla\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n180W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W 20W\nFigure 5 Schematic representation of the principal (a) high and (b) low SO-\nrelated temperature responses based on a detailed analysis for the\ncore regions\n6","-SEASON LEAD\n1-SEASON LEAD\n00\n00\nCANONICAL CORRELATION ENSO FORECAST USES DATA THROUGH JJA 90 0\nMEAN CROSS VALIDATION FORECAST SKILL\nS\n15\n50\n0.\n00\n0\n0\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSONU\n0\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSONO\nS\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\n89\n89\n89\n90\n90\n90\n90\n91\n91\n91\n91\n88\n89\n89\n89\n89\n90\n90\n90\n90\n91\n91\n91\n91\n88\n89\n3-MONTH PERIOD\n3-MONTH PERIOD\n2-SEASON LEAD\n2-SEASON LEAD\n00\nCANONICAL CORRELATION ENSO FORECAST USES DATA THROUGH JJA 90\n0\nMEAN ROSS-VALIDATION FORECAST SKILL\n0\n0\n0.\n0\n5\n00\n00\n0\n0\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nOJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSONO\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSONG\n5\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\n89\n89\n89\n90\n90\n90\n90\n91\n91\n91\n91\n88\n89\n89\n89\n89\n90\n90\n90\n90\n91\n91\n91\n91\n88\n89\n3-MONTH PERIOD\n3-MONTH PERIOD\n3-SEASON LEAD\n3-SEASON LEAD\n00\nCANONICAL CORRELATION ENSO FORECAST USES DATA THROUGH JJA 90\n0\nMEAN CROSS-VALIDATION FORECAST SKILL\n0\n5\n15\n0\n00\n0\n0\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMnn\nJJA\nSONU\n0.\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSONO\n5\nSON\nOJF\nMAM\nJJA\nSON\nDJF\n89\n89\n90\n90\n90\n90\n91\n91\n91\n91\n91\n91\n91\n91\n88\n89\n89\n88\n89\n89\n89\n89\n90\n90\n90\n90\n3-MONTH PERIOD\n3-MONTH PERIOD\nFigure 6 Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) predictions of sea surface\ntemperature in the central Pacific and corresponding cross\n-\nvalidation skill scores. The three plots in the left hand column\ndepict (from top to bottom) the 1-, 2-, and -season lead forecasts.\nThe right hand column shows the skills (correlations) that\ncorrespond to the observed and predicted SST for 1-, , 2-, and 3-\nseason lead forecasts. The solid line in each left hand panel\nrepresents the observed SST standardized anomaly through the latest\nmonth. The small squares at the mid-points of the forecast bars\nrepresent the CCA predictions based on the global sea level pressure\nanomaly fields and on the SST patterns in the tropical Pacific over\nthe previous four seasons. The one standard deviation error bars\n(thick lines) and two standard deviation (thin lines) error bars are\nbased on past performance using cross-validation techniques.\n7","EFF VORT SRC*E12\n90N\n0\n60N\n120\n0\n120.\n120.\n2\n240\n120\n30N\n120\n120\n1020\nP.\n120.\nEQ\n120\n120.\n30S\n-120.\n120\n0.\n60S\n120.\n120.\n120\n120.\n90S\nitem\nBOW\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E 150E 180E\nCANTOUR INTERVAL 60.00\na\nEFF VORT SRC*E12\n90N\na\n0\n60N\n89\n120\n30N\n120A\n0.\n120\n120.\n0.\nEQ\n>,\n120.\n120\n30S\n-120\n60S\n120\n120\n-120\n240.\nN2.\n120.\n0.\n90S\n180W 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W OE 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180E\nCANTOUR INTERVAL\n60.00\nb\nFigure 7\nVorticity sources for (a) the JFM season, and (b) the JJA season\nfrom NMC analysis from 1987-1989. Contour interval 6 X E-11/sec2.\n8","fluctuations appear to be typical of a moderate amplitude ENSO cycle. Also, the\nvorticity anomaly budget indicates that the main contribution to the vorticity\nbalance in the extratropics comes from the anomaly-mean flow interaction.\n1.2.2 Large-Scale Interaction (Ropelewski, Halpert, Wang)\nA major effort is focused on the fundamental modes of temporal and\nspatial variability in the Southern Oscillation (SO). Biennial variabiity in\nthe surface winds and sea surface temperature (SST) appears to be an important\nSO mode for both the western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Also,\nsignificant coherence between the monthly mean zonal wind component at 90°E and\nthe monthly mean SST across the Pacific basin (see figure 8), suggests that con-\nceptual and numerical models of the SO must include the Indian Ocean. While\nbiennial variablity apparently is one of the important modes in the evolution of\nthe so, the annual cycle appears to play a fundamental role in the phase of this\nbiennial variability.\n1.2.3 Climate Model Diagnostics (Mo)\nA diagnostics study was performed on modeled output based on the Climate\nData Assimilation System (CDAS). Thirty-day assimilations were run for July\n1989 for 3 different horizontal resolutions using the present model. The\nidentical data were inserted into the assimilation processes, with the only\ndifference being in the horizontal resolution. (The rotational part of the flow\nis not sensitive to the resolution.) The results show major differences in the\ndivergent winds. In the tropics, the low-resolution model consistently under-\nestimates divergence and associated convergence especially over central America,\nthe eastern Pacific, and western Africa. The low-resolution model also produces\nweaker Hadley cells and underestimates rainfall.\nIn another diagnostics study, an evaluation was made on the moisture\nbudget derived from NMC analyses. Moisture budget values were computed using\nhigh-resolution data (4 times daily) for 12 vertical levels from the surface to\n300 mb. The calculations are sensitive to the horizontal resolution, vertical\nresolution and time intervals. Figure 9 shows the divergence of moisture\nfluxes that were calculated from high and low resolution runs over the U.S. for\nJuly 1989. It can be noted that the pressure level output from the low-\nresolution run cannot capture small scale features. In addition, because the\nmajor moisture transport occurs at the 950 mb level and the diurnal cycle is\nvery strong for certain land masses, it is evident that a high-resolution model\nis needed to produce this computation.\nAn additional study was conducted to test the impact of sea surface tem-\nperature anomalies (SSTA's) on 30-day forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere\nsummer. Two sets of experiments were performed: the first set consisted of 30-\nday forecasts with SSTA fixed at the initial date during the integration; the\nsecond set used the same initial conditions as the first, but was run with cli\nmatological SST (CSST) Preliminary results show that SSTA's have a clear\npositive impact on the tropical forecasts and surface variables, such as surface\nstresses and latent heating. The impact on extratropical forecasts tends to be\nsmall. Figure 10 shows anomaly correlations for daily ensemble means of 500 mb\nheight anomalies for the CSST and SSTA experiments for both the Southern and\nNorthern Hemisphere. During the first 10 days, there is no significant impact\n9","270\n270\n90\n90\n90\n90\n5\n5\n170W\n90W\n6\n6\nPERIOD (MONTH)\nPERIOD (MONTH)\n12\nCOH. & PHASE\nCOH. & PHASE\n12\n24\nFigure 8 Coherence between the monthly mean zonal wind component at 90° E and\nc) 170°E, d) 170°W, e) 150° W, f) 130 0 W, g) 110°W W, and h) 90°W. No\nanalysis was performed for the mixed ocean/island regime centered at\n130°E. The significant biennial coherence between the winds in the\n24\nPacific Ocean suggests that the Indian Ocean must be included in\nmonthly mean sea surface temperature anomaly at a) 110°E, b) 150°E,\nIndian Ocean and the sea surface temperature across the equatorial\nh)\nd)\n60\n60\n0\n0\n1\n270\n270\n90\n90\n90\n90\nS\n5\n170E\n110W\n6\n6\nPERIOD (MONTH)\nPERIOD (MONTH)\n12\nCOH. & PHASE\n12\nCOH. & PHASE\n24\n24\nc)\ng)\n60\n60\n0\n0\n1\nmodels of the Southern Oscillation.\n270\n270\n90\n90\n90\n90\nS\nS\n150E\n130W\n6\n6\nPERIOD (MONTH)\nPERIOD (MONTH)\nCOH. & PHASE\n12\nCOH. & PHASE\n12\n60 24\n24\nb)\nf)\n60\n0\n0\nI\n270\n270\n90\n90\n90\n90\nS\n5\n150W\n110E\n6\n6\nPERIOD (MONTH)\nPERIOD (MONTH)\nCOH. & PHASE\n12\nCOH. & PHASE\n12\n24\n24\na)\ne)\n60\n60\n1\no\n1\n0","0.\n60N\n2\n0\n0.\nYON\n8\n4.\n61\n20N\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60H\nYOW\na\nCONTOUR INTERVAL=\n1.00\nVITGD DEL (QV)\nMM/DAY\n0\n60N\n0.\n0.\nYON\n2.\n8.\n2.\n6\n2\n2.\n4\n20N\n4.\n140W\n120W\n100N\nBOW\nb\n60W\n40H\nCONTOUR INTERVAL=\n1.00\nFigure 9 Vertical integrated divergence of moisture flux [del (QV)] over the\nUnited States for July 1989 from NMC analyses, (a) calculated using\nthe T80 resolution and (b) using the R30 resolution. Contour\ninterval 300 g/(cm*sec).\n11","ANOMALY CORRELATION NH 87\nANOMALY CORRELATION SH 87\n1.0\n.8\n.6\n.4\n.2\n0\n-.2\n-.4\na\nd\n-.6\nANOMALY CORRELATION NH 88\nANONALY CORRELATION SH 88\n1.0\n.8\n.6\n.4\n.2\n0\n-.2\n-.4\nb\ne\n-.6\n500 MB HEIGHTS\nNH\n89\nANOMALY CORRELATION SH 89\n1.0\n.8\n.6\n.4\n.2\n0\n-.2\n-.4\nf\nC\n-.6\n5\n10\n15\n5\n30\n20\n25\n10\n15\n30\n20\n25\nDAYS\nFigure 10 Anomaly correlation for daily ensemble forecasts for (a) 1987 NH,\n(b) 1988 NH, (c) 1989 NH, (d) 1987 SH, (e) 1988 SH and (f) 1989 SH\n500 mb heights. Dark solid line is for CSST experiments, dark\nsolid line and circle is for SSTA experiments and dashed lines are\nfor statistical confidence levels for the CSST experiments.\n12","in skill for experiments with and without SSTA. After that time, the SSTA start\nto improve the forecasts; however, the anomaly correlations drop to the point of\nhaving little or no skill. For mid-latitudes, large positive impacts occur only\nwhen the atmospheric circulations are driven by the ocean anomalies.\n1.2.4.1 Tropical Convection/Atmospheric Circulation (Kousky)\nA collaborative study (C. Studzinski et al; INPE, Brazil) was conducted\non rainfall variations in Northeast Brazil and related global atmospheric circu-\nlation changes during November 1989-March 1990. Results indicate that a large\npart of the temporal variability in rainfall can be related to phases of the 30-\n60 day (intraseasonal) oscillations. These oscillations were extremely active\nduring the above period and affected not only northern South America, but also\nthe Indian Ocean region, Indonesia, the Philippines, and northern Australia.\n1.2.4.2 Tropical Convection/Atmospheric Circulation (Chelliah)\nA joint study (with P. Arkin, OAR) was completed that employed rotated\nprincipal component analysis (RPCA) of monthly outgoing longwave radiation\n(OLR)\nanomalies over the global tropics. The broad aspects of large scale interannual\nand long-term variability, as derived from mean OLR data from NOAA's polar\norbiting satellites, were examined from June 1974-March 1989. The results\ndescribed both the physical and nonphysical variability in the data set. The\nleading physical modes included a \"canonical E1 Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)\nmode\" and the dominant 1982-83 ENSO mode. The canonical ENSO mode describes all\nthe major warm and cold E1 Niño events during 1974-1989. The nonphysical modes\ndocumented the spatial and temporal variability in the OLR data set associated\nwith different local observation times and different algorithms.\nIn a follow-up study, tropical-extratropical teleconnections were\nexamined as a function of temporal scale. Joint principal component analysis\n(JPCA) and singular value decomposition were used and the results for the lead-\ning second, third and forth rotated modes are shown in figures 11, 12 and 13.\nThe second eigenmode (figure 11), not surprisingly, is dominated by the 1982-83\nwarm ENSO event. This is evident by the large negative OLR anomalies in the\ncentral and eastern Pacific, and southern Indian Ocean, as well as positive OLR\nanomalies over Indonesia and northeast Brazil. The time series for the third\neigenmode (figure 12) illustrates the temporal variability associated with the\nspatial loading patterns of OLR and upper and lower vorticity changes\nrepresenting a canonical ENSO mode. In both figures, the upper and lower level\nvorticity changes are also quite consistent with the OLR changes in the tropics.\nThe fourth mode in this analysis, (figure 13), shows somewhat surprising\npatterns. Results show the spatial loading for OLR consists of dipoles in the\ntropical central Pacific and Atlantic, asymmetric about the equator. The time\nscale associated with the time series of this mode is longer than the\nintraseasonal, but shorter than the ENSO time scale. The tropical and extra-\ntropical vorticity patterns fit very well with the schematic of energy propaga-\ntion from low to higher latitudes (proposed theoretically by other researchers)\nThe evidence for the Northern Hemisphere winter season being the preferred\nseason for this kind of energy propagation is clearly present in the time\nseries. Moreover, the vorticity loadings over North America are much larger\nthan those associated with the 1982-83 mode or the canonical ENSO mode.\n13","JOINT PCA - OLR.Z200.Z850- TIME SERIES- ROT MODE # 2 /5\n900\n800\n700\nGOO\n500\n400\n300\na\n200\n100\n0\n-100\n-200\n-300\n-400\n-500\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\n1975\n1976\n1977\n1978\n1979\n1980\n1981\n1982\n1983\n1984\n1985\nYEAR\nJOINT\nPCA -OLR - ROTATED HODE 2 - MAX. HODES ROTATED 00 5\n20N\n4.\n0.0\n10N\n0.4\nb\nO,D\nQ,4.\nEQ\n0:8\nth\n0.4\nthe\n0.\n10S\n0.0\n0.0\n0.0\n20S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150H\n120H\n90H\n60H\n30H\nOE\nJOINT\nPCA -200 HB VORT - ROTATED MODE 2 - MAX. MODES ROTATED = 5\n40N\n01. 0\n30N\n10.0\n20N\n0.\nION\nW\nb.o\n0.4\nC\nEO\nlife\nQ.0\n0.0\n10S\n&\n0.0\n0.0\n<0.4\n0.4\n0.4\n0.0\n20S\n30S\n0.0\n40S\nJOINT PCA -850 MB VORT - ROTATED MODE 2 - MAX. MODES ROTATED = 5\n40N\nBK\n0.0\n0.\n04\n0.0\nOLO\n0.0\n30N\n20N\n$00.0\n0.\n0\ny\n0.0\n10N\nJ\n0.00\n0.0\n0.4\nd\nEO\n0.4\n10S\n6.4\n0.0\ns\n20S\n0.\n0.0\n0.0\n30S\n-0.-0\n0.0\n0.0\n40S\nmil\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150H\n120H\n90W\n60W\n30H\nOE\nPanels (a) through (d) show respectively the time series, the\nFigure 11\nspatial loading patterns for OLR over 20°N-20°S, 200 mb vorticity\nover 40°N-40°S, and 850 mb vorticity over 40°N-40°S for the second\nrotated principal component from JPCA.\n14","JOINT PCA - OLR, .Z200.Z850- TIME SERIES- ROT MODE # 3 /5\n900\n800\n700\n600\n500\n400\n300\n200\na\n100\n0\n-100\n-200\n-300\n-400\n-500\n1984\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\n1975\n1976\n1977\n1978\n1979\n1980\n1981\n1982\n1983\nYEAR\n-OLR - ROTATED MODE 3 - MAX. MODES ROTATED a\nJOINT\nPCA\n5\n20N\n0.0\n0.0\n10N\n0.0\n0.0\nb\n0-0\nEO\n0:4\n0.0\n0.0\n-0.0\n10S\nLOLANGA\n0.0\n20S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150H\n120H\n90H\n60H\n30H\nOE\nJOINT PCA -200 MB VORT - ROTATED MODE 3 - MAX. MODES ROTATED = 5\n40N\n0.0\n30N\n0.0\n-0.4\n20N\n3\nU\nKnow\n10N\n0.0 -0.14\n0.4\n04\n0\nC\nEQ\nto\n10S\n-0.4\n0\n0.0\n0.0\n20S\n0-4\n0.4\n30S\n0.7\n0.0\n0.0\n0.0\n40S\n90H\n60H\n30H\nDE\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150H\n120H\n- ROTATED MODE 3 - MAX. MODES ROTATED SE\n5\nJOINT\nPCA\n-850\nMB\nVORT\n40N\np.p\nD.D\n30N\n0.\n0.\n20N\no\nQ.\n0\n0.0\n10N\n-0.4\n0.0\nd\nEQ\nD\n0.0\nto\n9°\nQ\n<.\n10S\n0:1\n0.0\nD\n0.0\n20S\ns\nD\naya\n0.\n0\n30S\n0,07\n0.0\n0.0\n0.0\nli\\\n40S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150H\n120W\n90H\n60H\n30H\nOE\nFigure 12 As in figure 11, except for the third rotated principal component.\n15","JOINT PCA - -OLR, Z200,Z850- TIME SERIES- ROT MODE # 4 /5\n900\n800\n700\n600\n500\n400\n300\n200\na\n100\n0\n-100\n-200\n-300\n-400\n-500\n1989\n1975\n1976\n1977\n1978\n1979\n1980\n1981\n1982\n1983\n1984\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\nYEAR\nJOINT PCA -OLR - ROTATED MODE 4 - MAX. MODES ROTATED 8\n5\n20N\n0.0\n10N\n0\n0.0\n0.0\n0\nb\n0,0\nEQ\nII\n0.0\n0.0\n0.\n0.0\n0.0\n10S\n0.0\n0.4\n0.4\n20S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150H\n120H\n90H\n60H\n30H\nOE\nJOINT PCA -200 MB VORT - ROTATED MODE 4 - MAX. MODES ROTATED =\n5\n40N\n<<<<\n1.01\n0.0\nQ.4\n-0.4\n30N\nDIQ\noio\n20N\n0\n(UI\n0.4\n4\n0.0\n0.43\n10N\nth\n0\n0.0\n0.0\n0.0\nC\nEQ\n0\n10S\n0.0\nline\nd\n0.0\n20S\n0.0\n0.00\n30S\n0.0\n0.0\n0.0\n40S\nJOINT PCA - -850 MB VORT - ROTATED MODE 4 - MAX. MODES ROTATED =\n5\n40N\nV\n0\n0.10\n0.4\n40.0\n30N\n0.0\n-01.\n0.0\nU\n20N\no\n0.0\n0\n0.\n0.'\n4\n0.0\n10N\n0.0\n9\n0\nd\nEQ\ne\n-0.4\nAll\n10S\n0/0\n0\nal\nA\n20S\n0.0\na\n0\n0.0\n0.0\n30S\n0.0\n0.0\n0.\n40S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150H\n120H\n90H\n60H\n30H\nOE\nFigure 13 As in figure 11, except for the fourth rotated principal component.\n16","2. CLIMATE MONITORING\n2.1\nSurface Climate\n2.1.1 Surface Climate Anomalies (Halpert)\nThe Climate Anomalies Monitoring System (CAMS) data base has been con-\nverted to the Virtual Storage Access Method, which enables CAMS to be run\nthrough the 1990's. Historical precipitation data for China and Africa have\nbeen added to the CAMS data files. These data improve the monitoring of the\ncurrent climate and provide a larger data base for climate diagnostic studies.\n2.1.2 Climate Calendar (Ropelewski, Garrett, Halpert)\nCAC input was part of a joint Climate and Global Change/Tier II proposal\nwith NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center and the NOAA/Environmental Research\nLaboratories. This proposal, entitled \"Development of a Global Climate Per-\nspective System,\" seeks hardware and software support to improve data bases,\ngraphics and other Climate Calendar related products. As a result, a Sun work-\nstation was obtained and software is being developed to support Climate Calendar\ndata bases and analyses.\n2.1.3 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (Halpert, Ropelewski)\nA five-year climatology (April 1985 - March 1990) of Normalized Dif-\nference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values has been produced jointly (with NESDIS).\nThe temporal consistency of the index has been examined through the use of time\nseries over different vegetation surfaces. Large spikes were found which are\nbelieved to be caused by scan angle differences. Consequently, a scheme using a\nthree-week median filter was adopted to temporally smooth the data. Global\ndifference fields have been produced to examine vegetation changes during a low\nphase ENSO year (1987) and a high phase ENSO year (1988). Results showed wetter\n(greener) conditions prevailing during 1988 in India and northeast South America\nwith drier (browner) conditions in southeast South America.\nBased on median-filtered weekly data, NDVI anomaly maps have also been\ngenerated for various weeks and years. It was discovered that anomaly maps for\n1989 and 1990 have a negative bias, with large areas of the globe having nega-\ntive NDVI anomalies. This bias is apparently associated with the switch from\nthe NOAA 9 to NOAA 11 satellite, which resulted in the local equator crossing\ntime changing from 4:30 p.m. to 1:00 p.m. This time change appears to affect\nNDVI values over desert regions (figure 14). The values become greater as the\ncrossing time gets earlier (higher solar zenith angle). A study is currently\nunderway to identify whether this change affects the NDVI over vegetated\nsurfaces as well.\n17","MEAN WEEKLY NDVI FOR SAHARA (19-27N, -10E)\n0.14\n0.12\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\n0.10\n1990\n0.08\n0.06\n0.04\n0.02\n0.00\n15.00\n20.00\n25.00\n30.00\n35.00\n40.00\nWEEK OF YEAR\nFigure 14 Weekly time series of NDVI for a region in the Sahara desert. The\ndata were smoothed using a 3 week median filter.\n18","2.1.4 Snow/Ice Monitoring (Ropelewski, Garrett)\nA preliminary comparison study revealed that the estimates of Northern\nHemisphere surface temperature anomalies were inversely related to snow cover\narea anomalies. The relationship appears to be strongest for the Spring season\nover the Eurasian sector. As shown in figure 15, the extreme March 1990 surface\ntemperature anomaly is clearly related to the record (1973-1990) snow cover\ndeficit over Eurasia.\nA paper on the evaluation of global sea-ice trends was revised for\ninclusion in an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report. One\ncomponent of this Report discussed a time series of Antarctic sea-ice area,\nwhich shows decreasing values during the 1970s followed by a rapid recovery in\nthe early 1980s.\n2.1.5 Climate Trends (Ropelewski, Halpert)\nThe influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) on global and hemispheric\ntemperature estimates were written for an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate\nChange Report. Analyses suggest that it is more appropriate to monitor global\ntemperatures with seasonal data to separate SO-related temperatures from other\nsources of variability. The mean interannual temperature anomaly differences,\nassociated with SO extremes, are estimated to be 0.2°C for the October-March\nperiod in the Northern Hemisphere. In areas directly linked to the so, the mean\ninterannual difference may be more than 0.\nSeveral products were generated for CAC's climate assessment for 1989.\nThese include: hemispheric and global surface temperature time series, 500 mb\ntemperature anomalies, global sea surface temperature anomalies, U.S. precipita-\ntion indices, as well as snow cover and sea-ice areal values. These products\nwill also be generated for a climate assessment for 1990. Preliminary analysis\nof hemispheric and global surface temperatures suggest that 1990 will include\nthe largest single positive monthly anomaly (March 1990).\n2.1.6 Sea Surface Temperature Data Center (Reynolds, Marsico)\nThe present TOGA SST product is designed to use in situ (ship and buoy),\nsatellite, and ice data. It has been discovered that the ice data have a major\nimpact on the analyses north of 60°N and south of 50°S. For this reason, the\nice data were added to all monthly analyses beginning with January 1989. Also,\nbecause ice data are important in monitoring global SST trends, all monthly\nanalyses were recomputed using ice data for the 982-1988 period. These\nreanalyzed SST fields have been sent to other data centers and individual\ninvestigators.\nAn investigation was initiated (as requested by the International TOGA\nProject Office) to determine what effect the delayed mode in situ observations\nhave on the blended TOGA SST product. A pilot study has been completed for the\nmonths of January, April, July and October 1985. The results show that the\ndelayed mode observations significantly increased the total number of in situ\nobservations. However, the blended field only showed significant effects (abso-\nlute changes greater that 0.5°C) in small isolated regions. Thus, the changes\nin the in situ data were minimized by the impact of the satellite data.\n19","SPRING ASIAN TEMP ANOM/MEAN EURASIAN SNOW COVER\n1.0\n22.0\n0.5\n20.0\n0.0\n18.0\n-0.5\n16.0\n- 1.0\n14.0\n1973\n1975\n1977\n1979\n1981\n1983\n1985\n1987\n1989\n1991\nFigure 15 Time series of the Northern Hemisphere Spring snow cover area\nderived from analysis of visible satellite imagery (dashed) and the\ntime series of Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly (solid) from\nthe GTS.\n20","A higher resolution (1° grid) SST analysis is now produced daily and\nweekly (with L. Breaker, NMC/Ocean Products Center), using the optimum interpo-\nlation (0I) method. The 0I-method uses the same data as the TOGA product; how-\never, because of the higher spatial and temporal resolution requirements, the\nquality control procedures have been improved. An example of the SST analysis,\nbased on OI method, is shown in figure 16 and can be compared with the TOGA SST\nproduct (shown in figure 17). The higher resolution of the OI-derived SST is\napparent, as it displays more realistic cold tongues in the tropics, the equa-\ntorial eastern Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. At higher latitudes, the OI\nanalyses show tighter gradients particularly in the Gulf Stream and the\nKuroshio. The analyses also agree with satellite data and SST patterns obtained\nfrom ocean model simulations. Consequently, the analyses are being used to\nsupport CAC's ocean modeling effort and, after further testing, will be used\nto\nspecify the lower boundary conditions for the NMC/MRF model.\nClouds and Precipitation\n2.2\nGlobal Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)\n2.2.1\n2.2.1.1 Geostationary Satellite Precipitation Data Center (Janowiak)\nThe Geostationary Satellite Precipitation Data Center is now opera-\ntional. This Data Center provides tropical rainfall estimates from geostation-\nary satellite infrared data for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project\n(GPCP). Rainfall estimates for the global tropics have been processed for the\n1986-1989 period and were forwarded to the GPCP Center of the German Weather\nService in Offenbach, FRG. Subsequent data processing and shipment have also\nproceeded according to the schedule in the Project Implementation Plan.\nAs part of the GPCP, work was initiated on the the Algorithm Inter-\ncomparison Project. The purpose of this project is to evaluate various rainfall\nestimation algorithms that are applied to the same data that were measured near\nJapan during June and August 1989. Visible and infrared data from the GMS\ngeostationary satellite and microwave imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave/\nImager (SSM/I) aboard the DMSP polar orbiting satellite were provided to all\nproject participants. When the rainfall estimates from each method are received\nby the Precipitation Data Center, an evaluation of these estimates will be made\nby comparing them with observed rainfall from stations in the high-density\nradar/raingage Japanese Amedas network.\n2.2.2 Tropical Rainfall (Janowiak)\nIn this study, satellite-derived rainfall estimates were compared with\nsimulations of precipitation, low-level moisture, and vertical motion from the\nNMC/Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model for the 1986-88 period. Figures 18 and 19\nshow time-longitude graphs of 850 mb specific humidity and 500-mb vertical\nvelocity from the MRF model, while figure 20 shows the satellite-derived rain-\nfall estimates. A comparison shows that there is reasonable agreement among the\nmodeled fields and satellite-derived rainfall estimates. In the region bounded\nby the dateline and 90°W, the MRF moisture and vertical motion fields contain\nfeatures that propagate eastward in concert with the rainfall estimates during\nearly 1986 and again in mid-1988. Similar agreement is noted between the\nestimated rainfall and low level moisture during early 1988.\n21","80N\n60N\n40N\n20N\n20S\n40S\n60S\n80S\n0\n120E 140E 160E 180 160W 140W 120W 100W 80W 60W 40W 20W 0 20E\n20E\n12\nI\n5\n6\n12\n2\n0\n9\n6\n25\n7\n9\n27\n25\n28\n7\n0\n18\nFigure 16 Sea surface temperatures from the OI analysis for the period June\n17-23, 1990. The contour interval is 1°c. Positive contours are\nsolid lines; negative contours are dashed; the zero contour is a\n19\n9\n27\n8\n20W\n28\n40W\n25\n28\n21PR\n22\nWA\nheavy line. Regions covered by sea ice are stippled.\n28\n60W\n27\nO\n27\n18\n6\n4\n27\n80W\n20\n26\n29\n23\n100W\n28\n30\n6\n120W\n4\n2\n13\nx\n0\n10\n-1\n140W\nthe\n160W\nm\n29\n29\n180\n80\n160E\n28\n4\n2\n5\n23\nHIGH\n140E\n24\n19\n120E\n20\n22\n25\n2\n22","80N\n60N\n40N\n20N\n205\n40S\n60S\n80S\n0\n20E\n20E\nP\n15\n1\n5\n8\n23\n23\n8\n3\n0\n16\n11€\n9\n23\n15\n9\n0\nFigure 17 Sea surface temperatures from the TOGA analysis for the period\nJune 13-27, 1990. The contour interval is 1°c. Positive\ncontours are solid lines; negative contours are dashed. The zero\n22\ncontour is a heavy line. Regions covered by sea ice are stippled.\n5\n0\n0\n18\nto\n28\n21\n25\n120E 140E 160E 180 160W 140W 120W 100W 80W 60W 40W 20W\n20W\n28\n40W\n2.\n26\n2,\n13\n60W\n27\n7\n15\n13\n8\nI\n8\n28\n80W\n248\n25\n1\n22\n29\n100W\n29\n120W\n3\n29\n13\n2\n140W\n160W\nTHE\n180\n8\n5\n30.30\n300\n160E\n83\n29\n140E\n24-2:\n28\n2-25\n131\n120E\n18\n25\n22\n2\n2\n23","20\n15\n1986\n20\n20\n0\n20\n30\n0\n35\n2525\n25\n35\n20\n1987\n25\n2\n0\n25\nI\n988\n15 25\n15\n20\n1.5\n00\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\n00\nFigure 18 Time - longitude diagram (7.5°N - 7.5°S) of specific humidity\n(g/kg) at the 850 mb level from the NMC MRF model during 1986-88.\n24","-20\n=20\n20\n20\nI 986\n20\n0\n20\n0\n20\nO\n20\n40\n-20\n20\n20\nI 987\n20\n20\n20\n20\n40\n20\n20\n40\n020\nI 988\n40 40 40\n40\n0\n-20\n4\n4\n00\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\n00\nFigure 19 Time longitude diagram (7.5°N - 7.5°S) of vertical model velocity during\n(mb/s - X 105) at the 500 mb level from the NMC/MRF\n1986-88.\n25",".0\n2,0\n6\n8\n0\n0\n2.02.0\n00\n0\n5.0\n1986\n10\n15.0\n0\n0.0\n2010\n10/0\n0\n8,0\n6,0\n4\n0\n1967\n15.0\n2,0\n4,0\n8.08\n0.05\n10.0\n0.0\n15.\n0\n0\n0\n2.0\n4\n8,0\nM.O\n6.0\n60\n1988\n100.0\n6\n0\n2.0\n0\n0\n120E\n150E\n180\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\n00\n00\n30E\n60E\n90E\nFigure 20 Time-longitude diagram (6.25°N - 6.25°S) of satellite-derived\nrainfall estimates (mm/day).\n26","A follow-up study was initiated for the July 1989-July 1990 period, which\nencompasses 73 pentads (5-day periods). A comparison was made between\nsatellite-derived rainfall estimates and 0-6 hour and 12-36 hour precipitation\nforecasts from the MRF model in the tropics. Initial results indicate that the\nmodel-forecasted - values are greater than the satellite rainfall estimates over\nthe oceans, while the reverse seems to be the case over land. The mean pattern\ncorrelation among the 73 pentads is 0.54 for the GDAS precipitation forecasts\nand 0.49 for the 12 to 36 hour model forecasts.\n2.3\nAtmospheric Circulation\n2.3.1 Tropospheric Anomalies (Janowiak, Kousky)\nMonthly rainfall anomaly maps, based on a 1979-1988 base period, are now\nbeing produced routinely (figure 21). These maps are formed by applying the GPI\nrainfall estimation method on histograms of OLR flux from the NOAA 10 and 11\npolar orbiting satellites to obtain monthly rainfall. The anomalies are then\ncomputed by subtracting climatological rainfall estimates derived from an esti-\nmation technique that uses mean OLR flux. These charts are now being examined\nto ensure their reasonableness, and if acceptable, will be included in CAC's\nMonthly Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.\n2.4\nOperational Products\n2.4.1 Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (Kousky)\nThe printing and dissemination of the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (CDB)\nhas been accelerated in the past year. The CDB is prepared at CAC and then\ndelivered to the Department of Commerce for printing and mailing which now takes\nonly one week. This improvement in turn-around time enables the CDB to reach\nusers around the 20th of each month, which is about 10 days faster than the year\nbefore. In another development that enables CDB users to receive advance\ninformation, selected tropical Pacific indices and a preliminary text are both\ntransmitted on OMNET before the tenth of each month.\n2.4.2\nSeasonal Climate Review\n2.4.2.1 September - November 1989 (Halpert)\nAtmospheric and oceanic conditions throughout the tropical Pacific\ncontinued to be near normal during this season. Tropical Pacific sea surface\ntemperature (SST) anomalies hovered within 0.5°C of normal. The outgoing long-\nwave radiation (OLR) index for November was negative (above normal convection)\nfor the first time since early 1988. The increase in convective activity near\nthe date line was associated with low-level convergence. Also, the westerly 850\nmb zonal wind anomalies in the western Pacific marked the first such occurrence\nsince the end of the 1986-1987 E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation.\n27","120W\n100W\nBOW\n180\n160W\n140W\nBOE\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n40N\n40N\n5:05\n-25\n-25\n-50-25\n30N\n30N\n25\n25\n25\n29\nC\n.\n25\n25\n@\n20N\n20N\n25\n25\ndi\n-25\n25\n25\nION\nION\n-25\n25\n25\n25\nTIP\n&\nEO\nEO\n:\n25\n-25\n25\nmL\n0\n-25\n10S\n10S\n20S\n20S\n30S\n30S\n-25\n-25\n-25\n-010\n-25-729\n-5025 -25\n-50 -50\n-50\n-50-50\n-25\n21\n40S\n40S\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n180\n160W\n140W\n120E\n14CE\n160E\n80E\n100E\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n40N\n40N\n-25\n505\n-25\n30N\n30N\n50\n25\n25\nO\n25\n25\n25\n20N\n20N\n0\nR\n25\n2.\nI\n50\n25\n25\n25\n25\n25\n-25\n-25\n-25\n#\nION\nON\n25\no\nB\n75\n25\n25\n-25\nl\n25\nEQ\nEQ\n-\n-25\n85\n25\n####:\n0\n10S\n10S\n20S\n20S\n25\n-25\n-50\n30S\n30S\n525\n-25-25\n-25\n-25-505-50 50\n-75\n-50-25\n-50\n-20\n40S\n5\n40S\n100W\n80W\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\nFigure 21 Estimated rainfall anomalies (mm) for August, 1990, derived from\nobservations of OLR flux from the NOAA polar orbiting\nsatellites. The base period for the anomaly values is 1979-1988.\n28","The 1989 Atlantic hurricane season ended with seven hurricanes and 11\nnamed storms, slightly above the long-term mean. The most notable of the hurri-\ncanes was Hugo, which struck the South Carolina coast in September. This was\nthe most intense hurricane to hit the United States mainland since Hurricane\nCamille in 1969. Precipitation percentiles during the season were generally\nclose to normal throughout the Northern Hemisphere, although the rainy season in\nthe Pacific Northwest began slowly. This is significant since the last three\nrainy seasons in this region have been deficient.\n2.4.2.2 December 1989 - February 1990 (Janowiak)\nIn the western tropical Pacific, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)\nwas negative for each month. Weaker than normal 850 mb easterly winds were\nobserved over the western equatorial Pacific and negative outgoing longwave\nradiation anomalies (above normal convection) were observed east of the date\nline for the first time since early 1988. Although sea surface temperatures\nwere not strikingly high in the tropical Pacific, an impressive buildup and\neastward propagation of sub-surface warm water was observed.\nExtreme contrasts in monthly mean temperature were observed during this\nseason over much of North America. While December 1989 was the 4th coldest\n(since 1895) December for the contiguous United States, it was followed by the\nwarmest January and the 15th warmest February. Most of Europe also experienced\na very mild winter, although several intense storms with gale force winds\noccurred over the northern and western portions of the continent.\n2.4.2.3 March - May 1990 (Kousky)\nSigns of a developing warm episode in the tropical Pacific, which\nappeared during December 1989-February 1990, became less coherent during this\nseason. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained near 0.5°C in (the\ncentral equatorial Pacific region) and increased to near 0.5°C in the eastern\nequatorial Pacific by the end of May. These anomalies are about 1°C higher than\nthose observed during March - May 1989. The Southern Oscillation Index rose\nsharply throughout the season and ended with a positive value. The 850 mb zonal\nwind index in the western Pacific, as well as the outgoing longwave radiation\nindex, also trended towards zero (normal)\nThe pattern of warm weather, which occurred in the Northern Hemisphere\nextratropics during January and February 1990, continued and intensified\nin\nMarch. Nearly all of North America, Europe and the Soviet Union experienced\ntemperatures above the 70th percentile. Some regions, such as Siberia, north-\nwestern North America and western Africa experienced abnormally warm tempera-\ntures throughout the season. Western Europe, on the other hand, experienced\ntemperatures much above normal during March and May, but near normal in April.\n29","2.4.2.4 June - August 1990 (Ropelewski)\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures continued to move towards warm\nepisode conditions in the central Pacific during this season. However,\nanalogous warm conditions did not occur in the traditional eastern Pacific E1\nNiño areas. The central Pacific warming was supported by above normal convec-\ntion near the dateline; but none of the global atmospheric teleconnection\npatterns, generally associated with warm episodes, made their appearance.\nDry conditions returned to the Sahel region, even though the general\nmonsoon circulation progressed in a relatively normal fashion. After two years\nof near normal precipitation, the Sahel had its driest April to September rain-\nfall since the record dry year of 1984. The remainder of the Northern Hemi-\nsphere summer monsoon regions experienced a mixed season with the Indian summer\nmonsoon rainfall appearing to be about normal overall. The summer monsoon in\nChina started with excessive rainfall amounts but closed the season dry in\nsouthern regions. Dry conditions also prevailed in the southeastern United\nStates and over most of western Europe.\nThe Northern Hemisphere summer temperature continued a string of above\nnormal values over most of the land areas; however, anomalies were generally\nless extreme than in the March through May period. In the Southern Hemisphere,\ntemperature anomalies tended to show more spatial and temporal variability than\nin the Northern Hemisphere. In general, eastern and southern Australia\nexperienced below normal temperatures as did the Grand Chaco area of Paraguay,\nUruguay and Argentina. The rest of the land areas showed positive temperature\ndepartures for the season.\n2.4.3 Monthly Climate Diagnostics Briefings (Diagnostic Branch Staff)\nMonthly climate diagnostics briefings were presented for September- -\nNovember 1989 (by M. Halpert), for December 1989-February 1990 (by J. Janowiak),\nMarch-May 1990 (by V. Kousky) and June-August 1990 (by C. Ropelewski).\n30","3. OCEAN CLIMATE ANALYSIS\n3.1\nOcean Diagnostics and Monitoring\n3.1.1 OMAS Development (Leetmaa)\nMajor activities were focused on developing a climate data assimilation\nsystem (CDAS) for the ocean and implementing a prototype coupled model system.\nUnder the CDAS activity, the Pacific model domain was extended to cover the area\nfrom 120E to 70W and 45S to 55N. This model now includes bottom topography\nand ocean thermal data are now being assimilated throughout this domain. The\nPacific model system has been transferred from the CYBER to the CRAY computer.\nAlso, a global ocean analysis system, as developed at NOAA/GFDL, was\nimplemented on NMC's CYBER 205 in January 1990. Since then, routine weekly\nanalyses are performed in parallel with the Pacific basin analysis system. With\nthe procurement of CRAY computers at both NMC and GFDL, the decision was made at\nGFDL to develop an up to date global ocean code for the CRAY. This new version\nwill be made available to CAC shortly, which will greatly facilitate testing of\nphysical parameterizations.\nFurthermore, a coupled model system has been implemented first on the\nCYBER 205 and then on the CRAY. This system consists of an active Pacific Ocean\nmodel, with climatologically varying global SSTs, coupled on a 12-hour basis\nwith a low resolution version of the operational atmospheric model. First\nexperiments have just been conducted, and although there are some problems, the\noutlook for having this system perform properly is encouraging. Over much of\nthe basin the flux imbalances between the ocean and atmosphere are small, for\nexample, the net surface heat flux from the atmospheric model compared to the\nheat fluxes required to force the ocean model.\nAs part of CDAS, considerable efforts have gone into improving the\nquality control procedure for the different ocean data sets. Interactive\nprocedures were developed that assign proper call signs to unidentified\nplatforms, correct erroneous positions and times, and evaluate individual\nprofiles in the context of groups of profiles taken by the same ship. It has\nbeen found that the largest source of error, by far, is in the temperature\nestimate itself. Currently, 25% of the reports are being rejected because of\npoor thermal data, compared to 5% for all other problems. Most of the\ndevelopment work on the interactive editing procedures has been for the Pacific\nbasin. This is now in the process of being extended to the global domain.\n3.1.2 Tropical Surface Fluxes (Leetmaa, Reynolds, Marsico)\nA major activity of ocean studies is the evaluation of surface fluxes\nfrom the NMC atmospheric model. CAC maintains separate flux archives of the\noperational runs and other low level atmospheric model fields. These are evalu-\nated by direct intercomparisons to observations, comparisons to estimates of the\nnet surface heat flux from the ocean analysis system, comparisons with climato-\nlogical fields, and assessing their appropriateness for forcing the ocean model.\nTo date, an examination has been made of momentum, heat, moisture and fresh\nwater fluxes. Results for the tropical Pacific show that the stress field from\nthe operational atmospheric runs appears to be \"reasonable\"\n31","An examimation of the surface heat fluxes, however, indicates a number of\nproblems. On the eastern sides of the basin, the net short wave flux was\nsignificantly larger than that indicated from climatological estimates.\nRecently tested changes to the cloud parameterization, which allow for a lower\ncloud base, have reduced this problem. Overall in the 20N to 20S zone, the\natmospheric net heat flux appears to be about 40 watts/m2 higher compared to\nclimatology and the estimates from the ocean analysis system. This bias appears\nto be caused by an overestimation of the short wave flux and an underestimation\nof the evaporation. Initial experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model\nindicate that fluxes from this model agree much better with estimated values\nfrom the ocean analysis system than the values from the operational analyses.\nAn evaluation is also being conducted of the oceanic rainfall derived by\nNMC's global atmospheric model. Comparisons with climatological fields and\nthose estimated from satellite-derived outgoing long wave radiation indicate\nthat the model estimates are of the same order of magnitude as the other fields.\nA task is now underway that employs the fresh water flux from the atmospheric\nmodel and use it as a forcing field for the ocean.\n3.2\nOperational Products\n3.2.1 Ocean Monitoring (Leetmaa)\nAlthough sea-surface temperatures (SST) remained anomalously cool or\nclose to normal in early 1990, the volume of warm subsurface water in the equa-\ntorial zone (thought to be a necessary condition for an E1 Niño to occur)\nremained anomalously large. As the year progressed, positive SST anomalies\nstarted to appear, and late in the year, positive anomalies of 1-2°C were\nsituated in the equatorial zone near the dateline. In the meantime, SST values\nin the near equatorial eastern Pacific remain close to normal.\n3.2.2 Tropical Pacific Nowcasting (Leetmaa)\nChanges in the model domain have in turn, changed some of the ocean\nproducts which could no longer be used. For example, a proper basin-wide clima-\ntology was lacking. Consequently, new products had to developed for thermocline\ndepth, integrated heat content, sea surface temperature, and their departures\nfrom climatology. Some of these revised products are now being inserted in\nCAC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.\n1320 NOAA Coral Gables Library Center\n32\nSouth Dixie Highway, Room 520\nCoral Gables, Florida 33146","4. STRATOSPHERE AND TRACE GASES\n4.1\nField Analysis\n4.1.1 Stratospheric Winds (Miller)\nA comparison was made between CAC's stratospheric analyses (70-10 mb\nlevels) and those produced by the parallel Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model.\nThe parallel MRF analyses were improved over the operational MRF analyses; how-\never, the height and temperature fields still have larger mean errors than CAC's\nanalyses. Evaluation of the results of extending the MRF up to 10 mb has been\ndelayed due to implementation of the computer code onto the CRAY system. It is\nanticipated that parallel processing will be resumed for the Northern Hemisphere\nwinter.\n4.1.2 ERBE Analysis (Yang)\nIn this study, ERBE-derived net earth radiation values are being used to\nexamine the energy transport between the atmosphere and ocean. Based on net\nradiation values, the necessary energy transport was calculated for April, July,\nand October 1985, as well as January 1986. These calculations were compared\nwith energy transport values derived from NMC global wind component and height\nanalyses. The results show that the ERBE values and NMC analyses agreed in mid-\nlatitudes, but not in the tropics. It was also found that the storage term and\nocean transport dominate the seasonal variation.\nIn a related study, attention is being focused on the role of cloud\namount and cloud type in the climate system. A joint evaluation (with NESDIS)\nof the operational NOAA/TOVS cloud product has resulted in an improved under-\nstanding of the data characteristics. Also, an intercomparison was made between\nNOAA/TOVs data and other satellite cloud data sets derived from real-time neph-\nanalyses (USAF), ISCCP, and NASA/TOVS. Preliminary results indicate that the\nNOAA cloud retrieval algorithm underestimates high cloud and overestimates low\ncloud amounts. A number of suggestions on ways to refine the operational system\nare being examined\n4.1.3 Upper Air Intercomparisons (Gelman)\nThe final report on the Baseline Upper Air Network (BUAN) test was com-\npleted (in cooperation with personnel from NESDIS and National Weather Service)\nand submitted to the WMO for publication. The BUAN test (January - July 1988)\ninvolved a select group of radiosonde stations from countries, who provided\nspecial observations scheduled to coincide with the overpass of NOAA 10 satel-\nlite. Results showed that the BUAN data were superior to conventional radio-\nsonde data for use in evaluating the results of the satellite-derived tempera-\nture retrievals. However, no improvement was demonstrated by the BUAN data over\nconventional radiosonde data when used as input to regression coefficients. The\nmajor contribution of the BUAN test is an archive of NOAA-10/TOVS data and coin-\ncident BUAN radiosonde data, which will be used to further explore methods to\nimprove satellite retrievals.\n33","Special support and information continue to be provided to NASA/Houston\nin connection with Space Shuttle landings. Data from rawinsondes, rocketsondes\nand NMC analyses are used to derive detailed estimates of atmospheric parameters\nfrom 400,000 feet to the surface along the reentry path of each shuttle flight.\nThese data were utilized to support 5 Space Shuttle landings at Edwards AFB, CA\nduring the year.\n4.2\nOzone/Temperature Trends\n4.2.1 Ozone Trend Analysis (Nagatani)\nA major focus has been on the evaluation of the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 operational\nsatellite ozone data and a subsequent revised data set. The revision was made\nafter tests showed a drift in the upper level information in the original data\nset. Figure 22 shows the percent difference between SBUV/2 minus ground-based\nDobson data for the two data sets. So far, the data have been revised only for\nthe first two years, but it is clear that there has been a major impact on the\nderived satellite data. As the data are reprocessed, further evaluation will be\nconducted in regard to possible change in time.\n4.2.2 Temperature Trends (Miller)\nA statistical program was developed (by the University of Chicago, under\na CAC grant) and provided to CAC to evaluate global temperature and ozone trends\nfrom NMC stratospheric analyses (1978-present). Included in this statistical\ntime series analysis is a relationship between temperature and ozone with solar\nflux variability and the QB0 cycle, together with the annual and semi-annual\ncycles. There is also a noise (error) component, which is auto-correlated over\ntime and modeled as an auto-regressive process. The data for all components\nhave now been archived in this joint study with the University of Chicago, the\nUniversity of Wisconsin, and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories.\nA pilot study has been completed to evaluate possible trends in strato-\nspheric temperatures from 1978-1990. Results show an apparent correlation\nbetween the solar cycle, as indicated by the F10.7 solar flux and upper strato-\nspheric (1 mb and 2 mb) equatorial monthly mean temperature. The indicated\nsolar cycle-related temperature change is about 1. 0 C, superimposed on an over-\nall decrease in temperature of about 1.5 0 C, peaking near 1 to 2 mb.\n4.2.3 Stratospheric Climatology (Nagatani)\nA climatological study for the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition\nwas completed, in which lower stratospheric temperatures during January - March\n1989 were compared with temperatures available since January 1964. Results show\nthat the averaged temperatures for January 1989 were the lowest values for any\nJanuary in the last 26 years at high latitudes. Lower stratospheric tempera-\ntures for February 1989 were higher than average, while March 1989 had some of\nthe highest polar vortex temperatures in the last 26 years. Consequently, con-\nditions were not very favorable for polar stratospheric cloud formation into\nearly spring. In an extension of this study, the compiled data are now being\nused to analyze ozone trends (See Section 4.2.1).\n34","(SBUV2 MINUS DOBSON) /SBUVZ\nX\nNOAA-9 ORIGINAL AND REVISED DATA\nin\n4\nORIGINAL\n-O\nREVISED\n3\nXX\n2\nX\nX\nXX\n1\nX\no\nX\n-1\n-2\n0\nMAR\nSEP\nMAR\nSEP\nMAR\nSEP\nMAR\nSEP\nMAR\nSEP\nMAR\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\nFigure 22 SBUV/2 ground/based Dobson data comparisons.\n35","4.3\nOperational Products\n4.3.1 Circulation/Temperature Analysis (Gelman)\nLower stratospheric temperature conditions continue to be of special\ninterest, in connection with the \"ozone hole\" over Antarctica. Stratospheric\nmaps for the Southern Hemisphere were disseminated daily in support of research\nefforts in Antarctica. Figure 23 shows that 50 mb zonal temperatures at 80S are\nnear the long term average, which is consistent with reported near record low\nozone values over Antarctica.\nIn the Northern Hemisphere, a major stratospheric warming in early\nFebruary 1990 led to a circulation reversal in the upper stratosphere down to\nabout 30 mb. By mid-February, at 50 mb, Arctic temperatures returned to below\nthe long term average, as had been observed for most of the winter. Interest is\nkeen because low stratospheric temperatures play an important role in the forma-\ntion of polar stratospheric clouds, which in turn affect stratospheric ozone\ndepletion in the winter-spring polar vortex of both hemispheres.\n4.3.2 Atmospheric Angular Momentum (Miller, Kann)\nThe official beginning of the Sub-Bureau for Atmospheric Angular\nMomentum, under auspices of the International Earth Rotation Service, started on\nOctober 1, 1989. The purpose of the Sub-Bureau (located at NMC) is to compare\nanalyses and forecasts of atmospheric angular momentum computed by National\nWeather Service stations, and to provide evaluations to the international\ncommunity. Data are now being received from the U.K. Meteorological Office and\nthe Japan Meteorological Agency with a link to the European Centre to be\nestablished shortly. Evaluation of the data is being performed jointly with the\nJet Propulsion Laboratory and the Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc.\n4.3.3 Ozone Analysis (Nagatani)\nNOAA 11-SBUV/2 data are being compared with total ozone data from two\nother satellites--NOAA-11/TOVS and Nimbus 7/TOMS. These comparisons are being\nconducted during the Southern Hemisphere spring, as the Antarctic \"ozone hole\"\nis being monitored with as many as three of the instruments on a given day.\nInitial results show that the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data compare favorably with NOAA-7\nTOMS data. Even though the coverage for SBUV/2 is less than that from TOMS,\nmany of the features shown by the TOMS data are also shown by the SBUV/2 data.\nIn another task, preparations are being made for NASA's UARS satellite.\nSoftware was developed and is being made available to scientists at NASA/Goddard\nto access and obtain NMC profile and gridded data in near-real-time Plans are\nbeing developed for a daily transfer of NMC data to Goddard, after tests are\nperformed on limited data sets.\nMeteorological profiles continue to be provided to support NASA's SAGE II\nand SAM II satellite instruments. These data are being used to retrieve strato-\nspheric profiles of aerosols, ozone, water vapor, and nitrogen dioxide. The\nozone retrievals from the SAGE II instrument are being made available to CAC to\ncompare them with NOAA-9 SBUV/2 data.\n36","50 MB, 1990 ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE\nAND LONG-TERM AVERAGE\n80S\n15\n-25\n-35\n-45\n-55\n-65\n-75\n-85\n-95\n- 105\nJAN\nAPR\nJUL\nOCT\nFigure 23 50 mb zonal mean temperature at 80S for 1990 (solid line) and long-\nterm average for October 1978 - October 1990 (dotted line).\n37","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\n38","5. APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY\n5.1\nSurface Data\n5.1.1 Surface Climate Assessment (Miskus)\nMany areas of the world experienced precipitation extremes during the\nlast 4 seasons, as shown by figure 24. In the United States, October and\nNovember were excessively dry in the Central Plains; while in December,\nCalifornia and parts of the Pacific Northwest observed record dryness. Although\nprecipitation increased markedly in the latter region during January-March,\nsouthern California recorded its fourth consecutive subnormal rainy season.\nDuring late April and early May copious rains produced severe flooding in the\nsouth-central Great Plains, while heavy late Spring rains and numerous severe\nweather outbreaks afflicted much of the Midwest. In contrast, a lack of signif-\nicant tropical convection caused dryness along the eastern Gulf and south\nAtlantic Coasts during summer and early fall.\nIn Europe, dry weather occurred from the Iberian Peninsula eastward into\nItaly during October. Much of southern Europe was also dry during December-\nFebruary and again during May-September. However, torrential November and\nDecember rains produced severe flooding in southern Spain and northern Morocco.\nAlso, a series of intense mid-winter storm systems caused widespread flooding,\ncoastal erosion, and extensive property damage in northwestern Europe.\nIn the Far east, an active 1989 and 1990 tropical season produced ample\nrains for most of eastern China, Taiwan, southeast Asia, Japan, Korea, and\nthe\nPhilippines. While the 1990 Indian monsoon season brought generous and some-\ntimes excessive rains to most areas, the African Sahel rainy season, after two\nsuccessive near-normal years, returned to much drier conditions.\nIn the Southern Hemisphere many countries experienced a wet November,\nfollowed by a near-record dry December-February. However, heavy rains in late\nJanuary and early February produced flooding in Indonesia and northwestern\nAustralia, and near-record March and April rainfall occurred in northeastern\nAustralia. Also, the rainy season in southern Africa got off to a wet start. In\nSouth America, ample rains in late 1989 into early 1990 occurred in most of\nBrazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina, and Paraguay; however, during June-August\nit became unusually dry in Uruguay and Argentina.\nSignificant Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies were mainly posi-\ntive. One exception was in December when bitterly cold Arctic air, which\nsettled over Alaska and Canada during November, invaded the eastern halves of\nCanada and the United States. However, in January record warmth then pushed\ninto southern Canada and the U.S. where it persisted into February. Europe\nexperienced above normal temperatures in January and February, and warm\nconditions also developed during February in the western Soviet Union and north-\neastern China. In March, hundreds of stations set record high monthly temp-\neratures as exceptional warmth stretched across much of Europe, northwestern\nAfrica, Asia, and North America. During April and May, warm weather persisted\nin northern Europe, parts of Siberia, Alaska, and the western Sahel. During the\nsummer, above normal temperatures occurred in Alaska, central Siberia, Japan,\nand western Europe. During September, warm weather dominated the western and\ncentral U.S., southwestern Canada, the Sahel, and northwestern Africa.\n39","CON\n30N\n0\n30S\n60S\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\n150E\n150E\nNOAA/NWS/NMC\n120E\n120E\no\nShading depicts regions where anomalies were estimated to be within\nthe wettest or driest 10% of climatological occurrences. (Based on\nFigure 24 Global precipitation anomalies for September 1989 - August 1990.\n90E\n90E\nGLOBAL PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES\n60E\n60E\nSEPTEMBER 1989 - AUGUST 1990\n30E\n30E\n0\n0\n30W5\n30₩\n60W\n60₩\n1951-1980 dataset.)\n90₩\n90₩\nCOUNTRIES WITH INSUFFICIENT\nLEGEND :\n120W\n201\nDATA FOR ANALYSIS\nDRY\nWET\n150W\n150W\n30S\n60N\n30N\n60S\n0","In the Southern Hemisphere, temperatures were below normal in Bolivia and\nPeru (October-December), in Paraguay and southern Australia (February), and in\ncentral South America (June-September). In contrast, unusual December-January\nwarmth occurred in Argentina, Uruguay, and eastern Australia. Also, warm condi-\ntions occurred in southeastern Brazil and Australia (April), in southwestern\nAustralia (May), in south-central Africa (June), and in Argentina (August).\n5.1.2 CLICOM (Laver)\nCooperative efforts continued with NWS/Office of Meteorology to support\nCLICOM graphics and applications. A new version of CLICOM software was sent to\nexperts in the United States and WMO Regional Centers for testing during August\n1990. There has been a favorable response to the advanced features in the test\nversion. However, some problems exist with memory requirements and differences\nbetween versions of commercial software packages already in use.\n5.1.3 SOLRAD (Yang)\nSOLRAD operations (data collection, dissemination, and processing) con-\ntinued at the same level as 1989. However, the SOLRAD network will be affected\ngreatly as the National Weather Service phases in its Automated Station Observa-\ntion System (ASOS). Eight stations will be closed; sixteen will have to be\nrelocated; and only seven stations will remain at their present locations. The\nsixteen stations to be relocated also face the possibility of being discon-\ntinued, due to the problem of finding a suitable new site.\n5.1.4 National Climate Assessment Data Base (NCADB) (Laver)\nA report was written (by Canfield, CICS; Katz, SSAI) entitled \"Coop\nStation Data for CAC Operations.\" This report summarizes CAC capabilities and\nrecommendations concerning the operational use of cooperative data to enhance\nthe U.S. component of the Climate Assessment Data Base. The report also states\nthat numerous variations in observation transmission and computer-processing\npractices, combined with data dictionary deficiencies, preclude efficient\nroutine acquisition of non-precipitation observations from coop stations.\nAdditional resources are now needed to make major improvements in this data\nbase, which is limited and dependent upon the modernization of the cooperative\nnetwork. Discussions have been held between members of CAC and NWS/Office of\nSystem Operations on ways \"to modernize\" the cooperative data network.\nExploration of independent regional data sources has created the\npotential for dense, high quality data over subsets of the United States.\nRoutine access to these data through NSFNET file transfer is required before\npractical applications can be developed and tests are scheduled for late 1990.\nMeanwhile, CAC's products continue to rely on data from different sources,\nincluding the cooperative network. One example (see figure 25) shows\naccumulated precipitation data which confirms the extent that both short- and\nlong-term dryness abruptly ended in the southeastern United States .\n41","BOW\n1\n4\n6\n8\n2\n6\nWV\n2\n4\nKY\n2\n2\nVA\n2\n2\nC\n8\n8\n2\nC2\nTN\n8\n8.\n2\n4\nNC\n10.5\n10.5:\n4\nSC\n11.3\"\n15.2\n4\n0\n12,3\n12.0'\n2\n12.6\n42 2\n4\n2\n6\n-13.$\n15.3\"\nGA\n0\n8\n4\n10.2\n0\nTotal\n6\nPrecipitation (Inches)\nAL\nOctober 7-13, 1990\n4\n2\nDotted areas more\n30N-\n30N\nthan 6 inches\n0\nIsohyets drawn for 0, 1,\nFL\n2\n12\n2, 4, 6, 8, & 12 inches\nCEDAR KEY\nBOW\nFigure 25 Accumulated precipitation data from first-order synoptic, airways,\nand River Forecast Centers stations. The precipitation is from a\nsequence of tropical storm remnants and a stalled cold front.\n42","Agricultural Applications (JAWF)\n5.2\n5.2.1 Climate/Agricultural Assessment (Le Comte)\nWorld crop production is reaching new heights, SO far, in 1990. Canada,\nChina, and India are setting grain production records and the United States and\nthe Soviet Union are having excellent crops. A mild winter and spring as well\nas plentiful summer rainfall in major mid-latitude crop areas of the Northern\nHemisphere contributed to the bumper crop yields, as did a successful southwest\nmonsoon season in South Asia. In addition, the Southern Hemisphere's two major\nwheat-producing countries, Argentina and Australia, had timely rains and very\ngood harvest prospects. The result was a USDA forecast (1990/91) for world\ngrain production to reach 1.76 billion tons. This exceeds the previous record\nset in 1986/87 by 5 percent and represents a 22 percent increase in just the\npast 10 years.\n5.2.2 Africa; FEWS Project (LeComte)\nCAC's Agricultural Weather Section again closely monitored rainfall\nduring the African growing season in support of the Agency for International\nDevelopment's Famine Early Warning System (FEWS). For the first time, automated\ncontoured rainfall and temperature maps were transmitted to AID/FEWS during the\nsummer of 1990. These maps (developed by A. Herman, Ellsworth Assocs.), combine\nobserved surface rainfall with satellite-derived rainfall estimates based on OLR\ndata. The three principal products maps of 10-day rainfall totals, percent of\nnormal rainfall, and temperature departures-- are used to help assess the extent\nof dryness across the Sahel zone of Africa. Figures 26 and 27 show sample\nplots/analyses of rainfall over western and eastern Africa respectively.\nWeekly descriptive summaries of central African weather as well as the\ndaily location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) were also provided\nto AID. The 1990 rainy season was mediocre for Sahelien agriculture with rain-\nfall totals generally less than in 1989 and 1988. The main concern was the\nSudan, where drought likely had a major impact on rain-fed agriculture and\nsubsistence food production. Agricultural Weather Section products, such as\nsurface temperature and the ITCZ location (based on dewpoint temperatures),\nhelped confirm the dryness in sparse data areas.\nClimate Impacts: Monitoring\n5.3\n5.3.1 Products for Impacts Evaluation (Laver)\nCAC produced a Report entitled \"Climate Assessment for 1989 - Selected\nIndicators of Global Climate.\" This publication was distributed to several\nhundred users in March 1990. Feedback from readers included a number of sugges-\ntions that will be considered in preparation of a climate assessment for 1990.\nAlso, plans are being coordinated with the National Climate Data Center and\nother NOAA Laboratories for a more ambitious publication - a Climate Assessment\nfor the 1981-1990 Decade.\n43","20N\n15N\nON\n5N\nEQ\n24\n37\n24\nFigure 26 Western African Sahel precipitation estimates (mm) and comments for\nAugust 21-31, 1990 using synoptic rainfall reports and estimates\nbased upon NOAA satellite OLR data. The figure was created on the\nApollo system and transmitted to AID's Famine Early Warning System.\n10.\n1 OE\n14\nBENEFICIAL SEASONAL RAINS (25-80mm) FELL IN SENEGAL AND SC MAURITANIA. SE MAURITANIA\nTOO DRY (10-20mm). VARIABLE, BUT MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL, RAINS (15 - 100+mm) FELL ACROSS\nTHE SAHEL COUNTRIES. UNUSUALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES (2 -40C - ABOVE NORMAL) STRESSED\n32\nTOTAL PRECIPITATION\n332\n67\n97\nWESTERN AFRICA\nAUG 21 - 31, 1990\n52\n105\n23\n32\n101\nto\n01\n31\n0\nREPRODUCTIVE CEREALS NORTH OF THE 13th PARALLEL\n42\n3\n43\n60\n103\n33\n42\n71\n121\n47 87\n38\n80\nWEST AFRICA COMMENTS\n60\n86\n26\n1 OW\n41\n17\n10.\n06\n56\n96\n28\n2ON\n15N\n1ON\n5N\nEQ","SOURGHUM ZONE (RENK-DEMAZINE). SPARSE DATA STILL SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL RAIN-\nAGAIN, HOT AND UNUSUALLY DRY ACROSS NORTHERN CROP AREAS IN SUDAN. TEMPERA-\nTURE ANOMALIES NEAR +50C IN KHARTOUM-SENNAR-KASSALA AREA ARE VERY UNUSUAL\nANYWHERE IN THE TROPICS. RAINFALL OF 0 - 25 mm IN THE NORTH WAS WELL BELOW NOR-\nMAL AND FAR SHORT OF PLANT MOISTURE NEEDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS (50 - 100mm)\nMAINTAINED GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR CROPS IN THE SOUTHERN MECHANIZED\nFALL IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF ETHIOPIA. HEAVY RAINS IN THE WEST HELPED\nTO SET THE STAGE FOR THE FLOODING REPORTED AROUND GAMBELA IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.\nHOT, DRY WEATHER IN EASTERN SAHELIAN CHAD (0-25mm) HARMED CROPS AND PASTURES.\n15N\n1ON\n5N\nEQ\n50E\nFigure 27 Same as figure 26, except for the eastern African Sahel.\n16\n10\n35\nTOTAL PRECIPITATION\n40E\n36\n55\n3\n23\nEASTERN AFRICA\nAUG 21 - 31, 1990\n2\n83\nEAST AFRICA COMMENTS\n87\n136\n125\n11\n60\n15\n33\n,\n30E\n47\n0\n22\n31 37.\nnot\n31\n5\nas\n25\n11\n20E\n48\n\"\n20N\n15N\n1ON\n5N\nEQ","Several special climate products and updates were generated in response\nto high-level requests for current national \"items of interest.\" An example of\none item is the long-term western drought combined with the southwest heat wave\nand forest fire outbreak as shown in figure 28.\n5.3.2 Socioeconomic Impacts (Lehman)\nInteractive software products that facilitate the use of CAC's 30-day\nMonthly and Seasonal Weather Outlooks were evaluated by potential users. As a\nresult, new features were added, including day by day cumulative degree-day\nprojections. The output of these products can provide users with advanced\nplanning information and drive models that project weather-related energy use,\ncrop yields, and water runoff. Other software was developed for applying stand-\nardized mathematical functions in modeling skewed climate data distributions.\nProducts are being generated, for example, that can increase the accuracy of\nrainfall data used in crop yield projection models.\nA model was developed, in collaboration with the Ohio Public Utility\nCommission, that shows past and current trends in customer use and conservation\nof natural gas. The trend model makes use of historical monthly heating degree\nday, natural gas sales and customer data. The output can drive prediction\nmodels and provide improved assessment of real trends, corrected for the annual\nweather variations that strongly influence sales. In a related task, a new\npredictive model for monthly natural gas sales is being tested that makes use of\nCAC Monthly Outlooks and current data from the trend model. The output of this\nmodel is designed to assist utility companies, as well as state and federal\nofficials in anticipating energy demand, especially during national emergencies.\n5.3.3 Regional Climate Centers (Laver)\nThe oversight of the Regional Climate Centers (RCC) was officially trans-\nferred from the National Climate Program Office (NCPO) to the National Weather\nService (NWS), as directed by Dr. J. A. Knauss, NOAA Administrator in August\n1990. As a follow-up action, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed by the\nDirector/NCPO and the Assistant Administrator for NWS in September 1990. Thus,\nthe RCCs, the Climate Analysis Center, and the National Climatic Data Center are\nentering a new era. The major challenge is to implement a consistent, yet\ndiverse, program of regional and national climate services, coupled with\ndevelopment and applied research to improve these services. A minimum set of\nresponsibilities was drafted (by S. Changnon) to establish guidelines for RCC\noperations and research.\nSeveral special products were developed for specific RCCs and the Centers\nhave rapidly developed information delivery systems tailored to customers in\ntheir respective regions. Members of the RCCs and CAC will have discussions and\nmake presentations on data and services at the upcoming 15th Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop (Asheville, NC, October 29 - November 2, 1990). Also, a\nspecial RCC session is planned during the AMS sponsored 7th IIPS Conference in\nNew Orleans (January 1991). A meeting of technical and system experts from each\nCenter will be held to discuss system problems and facilitate improvements in\ncommunication between Centers.\n46","CLIMATE UPDATE\nJULY 9, 1990\nLong-term dryness (Figure 1), in some cases persisting as long as four years (e.g., in southern California), has affected most\nof the southwestern quarter of the country. Many communities in central and southern California have instituted mandatory\nwater rationing as reservoirs and rivers have dropped to dangerously low levels.\nRecent record and near-record breaking heat, with temperatures above 100°F, covered much of the same area as well as the\nHigh Plains (Figure 2). Several cities, such as Phoenix, AZ at 122°F, established all-time record highs\nThese conditions, along with low humidities and gusty winds, have led to a large number of wild fires as indicated by the asterisks\nin Figure 2. Fires in the Tonto National Forest (in Arizona) took the lives of six fire fighters while wild fires near Santa Barbara,\nCA caused over $500 million in property damage.\nFIGURE 1\nDROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX\nFIGURE 2\nEXTREME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (°F)\n(LONG-TERM PALMER)\nJUNE 24 - 30, 1990\nAS OF JUNE 30, 1990\nEXTREME DROUGHT\nBELOW 80\n-4.0 AND BELOW\n80 TO 90\nSEVERE DROUGHT\n90 TO 100\n-3.0 to -3.9\n100 TO 110\nMODERATE DROUGHT\n110 TO 120\n-2.0 to -2.9\nABOVE 120\nNEAR NORMAL\nUNUSUAL MOIST SPELL\n-1.9 to +1.9\n+2.0 to +2.9\n* IDENTIFIES LOCATIONS OF MAJOR WILD FIRES\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nFOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:\nAnalysis and Information Branch\nD. Miskus, J. Laver, or R. Tinker at 763-8071\nFigure 28 Special climate update [normally in color] of long-term drought,\nheat wave, and wild fire outbreak in the southwestern U.S. during\nlate June 1990.\n47","5.4\nOperational Products\n5.4.1 Climate Dial-Up Service (CDUS) (Fulwood)\nThe Climate Dial-Up Service (CDUS) operation has been succesfully trans-\nferred from the Micromation system to the Microvax II computer, effective August\n15, 1990. This move has been planned for over three years and affords increased\nprocessing power and disk space, automates the transfer of products from\nmainframe to micro, allows for product and application expansion, provides\ngreater flexibility and reduces manual interaction. A four-month test period\nprovided CDUS users with an opportunity to familiarize themselves with the new\nsystem and allow CAC staff to monitor system performance.\n5.4.2 Daily Weather Maps (Dionne)\nThe production of the Daily Weather Maps has improved, with new emphasis\nbeing placed on the quality of charts produced by NMC/Meteorological Operations\nDivision (MOD) . The Daily Weather Maps series is being used as a test bed by\nMOD for a new InterGraph system, which will be used for all chart production.\nThe combined effort by CAC and MOD has resulted in improvements in both data\ncoverage and quality of these charts.\n5.4.3 Weekly Climate Bulletin (Miskus)\nThe publication quality of the Weekly Climate Bulletin (WCB) has been\nimproved and efficiency has increased, due to the continued use of desktop pub-\nlishing software. Several pages of the WCB as well as the front cover are now\nproduced routinely on the Apollo computer. The WCB now includes special\nclimate-related impacts and historical meteorological data which are received\nfrom The National Climatic Data Center and some of the Regional Climate Centers.\nSummaries also were incorporated from the USDA's Fire and Aviation Management,\nthe Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and CAC's E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation\nAdvisories. The number of recipients of the WCB has now increased to 1300.\nDuring the past year there were numerous requests for information on\nclimate anomalies. These included: the exceptional November 1989 dryness in\nthe central Great Plains; the record dryness along the West Coast and record\ncold in the eastern half of the U.S. during December 1989; the abnormally mild\nJanuary, February, and March across North America, Europe, and Asia; the\npersistent dryness in the western U.S. and southern Europe during 1990; and\nheavy spring and summer rains in the midwestern United States.\n5.4.4 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (LeComte)\nThe appearance of the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WWCB) continued\nto improve, through the use of computer and desktop publishing software. The\nweekly data tables for U.S. cities have been enhanced and the back cover was\nchanged, which makes information easier to read and leaves more available space.\nThere are now 1,200 subscribers to the WWCB, which covers the printing cost of\nthis publication.\n48","Special articles on significant weather events were published in the WWCB\nduring the year. Among the topics covered were: drought in the U.S. Plains,\nthe January 1990 severe windstorm in Europe, torrential rains in eastern\nAustralia, wet weather in the U.S. Corn Belt, and the rash of typhoons striking\nChina and Japan in September 1990.\n5.4.5 Climate and Weather Update (Dionne)\nCAC's Climate and Weather Update, a summary of current U.S. weather con-\nditions has received favorable interest within NOAA. As a result, it has been\nrequested that CAC increase the distribution of this product. Featured high-\nlights in 1990 have included significant rainfall events in the Southwest and\nMidwest, as well as dryness in the Southeast and far West.\n5.4.6 PRESTO - National Capital Summary (Miskus)\nThe publication quality of PRESTO (Precipitation Summary and Temperature\nObservations) has been improved and the production time has been reduced with\nthe use of desktop publishing software. PRESTO, a summary for 5 stations in and\naround Wasington, D.C., is now completely produced using Apollo software,\nincluding the front page (figure 29). Color enhancements, however, are still\ndone manually until color upgrade software can be obtained. Historic weather\ndata for all the stations used in PRESTO are being transferred to a personal\ncomputer, which will enable easy access and statistical manipulation. The\nnumber of users that receive PRESTO has increased to 220, including 30 members\nof Congress. In addition, PRESTO is now incorporated into NOAA's monthly\nMetropolitan Washington Climate Review.\n5.5\nSupporting Projects\n5.5.1 Communications and Graphics Applications (Laver)\nThe transfer of Versatec and Tektronix generation products has begun,\nwith the installation of electronic plotters and the insertion of NCAR products\non the Apollo network. Subroutines that create replications of Versatec\nproducts have been produced operationally at the World Weather Building and at\nJAWF. Also, a new interactive method produces analyzed temperature, departure\nfrom normal temperature, precipitation, and percent of normal precipitation maps\nfor the Sahel region of Africa.\nIn addition, work is nearing completion to operationally transfer (from\nthe Tektronix to the Apollo) average temperature and departure-from-normal\ntemperature charts for the U.S. This chart (see figure 30) is currently\npublished in both the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and Weekly Climate\nBulletin. All of the above activities have demonstrated the ability of the new-\ngeneration equipment to perform advanced automatic analysis techniques, to\nprovide the flexibility to adjust maps subjectively and interactively, and to\nproduce publication-quality output.\n49","A\nOF\nCOMMENTS\nPRESTO\nNORA\nSTATES\nOF\nPRECIPITATION SUMMARY AND TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS\nFOR THE WASHINGTON, DC & BALTIMORE, MD AREA\nSEPTEMBER 1990\nSEPTEMBER COINCIDENCE CONTINUES EVEN-NUMBERED\nYEARS (E.G. 1990) BELOW NORMAL.\nSince 1984, DCA has observed DRIER AND COLDER than usual Septembers during EVEN-numbered\nyears and WETTER AND WARMER than normal Septembers during ODD-numbered years\nSEPTEMBER DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL\nWASHINGTON/NATIONAL AIRPORT (DCA).\n4\nTEMPERATURE DEPARTURE\n+3.46\"\n+3.45\"\nPRECIPITATION DEPARTURE\n3\n2\n+1.89\"\n1\n+1.0°F\n+0.8°F\n+0.3°F\n0\n-0.2°F\n-.71\"\n-1\n-1.37\"\n-1.4°F\n-2\n-2.2°F\n-2.35\"\n-2.62\"\n-2.8°F\n-3\n1984\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\n1990\nYear\nSEPTEMBER HIGHLIGHTS:\nLeast amount of precipitation at DCA in any month since 0.60\" fell during September 1986;\nDriest September EVER at Andrews AFB (0.54\") since records began in 1943;\nFirst successive precipitation-free weekends (Sep. 1-2, 8-9) at National since last year\n(Dec. 16-17, 23-24);\nFirst time since November-December 1989 that DCA observed consecutive cooler than\nnormal months (August & September 1990).\nFigure 29 Front page of the September 1990 PRESTO [normally in color] that\nwas produced by Apollo desktop publishing software.\n50","Departure of Average Temperature from Normal\n16 Sep 1990 - 22 Sep 1990\n-3\n-6\n3\n>8\n36\n03\n6\n-3 0\n0\n-5 -3\n>-\n3\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER, NOAA\nBased on preliminary data\n16 Sep 1990 - 22 Sep 1990\nDeparture of Average Temperature from Normal\n3\n0\n3\n-6\n-3\n3\n0\n3\n9\n6\n0\n3\n3\n⑉\n3\n0\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER, NOAA\nBased on preliminary data\n>-9\n-6 - -3\n-30\n03\n36\n>6\nFigure 30 Examples of automated product generation on the Apollo system using\nmodified NCAR graphics. Products are published in CAC's Weekly\nWeather and Crop Bulletin and Weekly Climate Bulletin.\n51","A thin wire ethernet was installed at the Joint Agricultural Weather\nFacility (JAWF) at USDA. It links an APOLLO workstation, a PC, plotter, laser\nprinter and a \"router.\" The \"router\" connects JAWF to the WWB via a high-speed\ndirect digital service line. This line is now operational and provides signif-\nicant advancement in AIB/JAWF capabilities. Critical new aspects will include\nrapid data and graphics exchange, full screen edit on NOAA mainframes from JAWF,\naccess to internet at JAWF, potential to network with other JAWF meteorologists\nand eliminate separate, outdated printer link to computer mainframes.\nAn ethernet line was also installed at the World Weather Building to link\nA&I Branch's computer workstations, printers and plotters. An ethernet \"bridge\"\nconnects this sub-network to the main WWB ethernet and permits access to\nAPOLLOs, mainframes, other devices on the network, as well as the outside world.\n5.5.2 Satellite Monitoring Products (Laver, Tinker)\nThe reliability and quality of satellite images used in the African Sahel\nprecipitation analyses has been improved by a new method of bringing METEOSAT\nimagery into the VDUC environment. Figure 31 shows approximately the form these\nimages take, although color output enables the user to identify a greater number\nof count ranges than the gray scale. Programs were developed (by A. Herman,\nEllsworth Associates) that demonstated the feasibility of inserting digital\nMETEOSAT data (with precision geography) on the VDUC and then into the inter-\nactive Sahel analyzing program. After a 3-month test period, implementation of\ndigital data will increase the number of daily images. At the same time, the\nprecision geography will improve the accuracy of the Sahel analysis.\n5.5.3 Climate Assessment Data Base (CADB) (Patterson)\nBoth the daily and monthly data files for the CADB are completely\nautomated and error-free with regard to the downloading, storing, overwriting,\nand accessing of data. An archival system was developed and the data are now\navailable both on magnetic tape and optical disk. Software was also developed\nto convert the daily summary data to the new format that enables users to access\nthe daily data from 1978 to 1987 with the current version. In addition, the\ndaily summary system was redesigned to permit data processing to continue with\nincomplete data and to prevent the daily database programs from running out of\norder. Finally, the CADB master station library was updated to flag North\nAmerican locations with incomplete or missing precipitation reports.\n5.5.4 JAWF Briefings (LeComte)\nMeteorologists from CAC's Agricultural Weather Section briefed USDA crop\nanalysts weekly on important weather events affecting global crop production.\nThese briefings included: Fall 1989 dryness in the U.S. and north African\nwinter wheat regions, mild winter weather in Europe, spring and summer dryness\nin western and southern Europe, and heavy spring and summer rains in the U.S.\ncorn belt. Weather conditions were generally favorable for the world's major\nfood-producing countries, with abundant rains benefiting summer crops in the\nSoviet Union, China, Canada, and the United States. Also, crops in southern\nAsia benefited from a good southwest monsoon season.\n52","AUGUST 21 - 31. 1990\nAccumulated cold cloud top counts across the African Sahel during\nFigure 31\nAugust 21-31, - 1990. Every three hours, a METEOSAT grid is\nincremented by 1 at all locations where the cloud top temperatures\nare below a critical value (i.e. where rain is likely occurring).\nEach gray shade represents a range of these occurrences (ranging\nfrom 0 [white] to >12 [black]) out of a possible 88. Normally, 16\nshades of color are used rather than 4 shades of gray to allow for\nconsiderably more detail.\n53","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\n54","6. CLIMATE PREDICTION\n6.1\nEmpirical Studies\n6.1.1 Medium Range (6-10 Day) Forecast Development (Epstein)\nAn \"Imperfect Prog\" system has been developed for statistically post-\nprocessing model output to produce MRF-based 6-10 day precipitation and tempera-\nture predictions. This system, which is still undergoing testing and refining,\nis less demanding than the Model Output Statistics (MOS) system and explicitly\ndeals with the decreasing predictability of potential and selected predictors\n(actually specifiers) in the Perfect Prog system of statistical forecasting.\nPredictions of precipitation are given in terms of the probability of measurable\nprecipitation occurring on 0, 1, or 2 or more days of the 6-10 day period.\nPredictions of temperature are made directly in terms of standardized anomalies\nfrom the climatological normal 5-day mean temperature, but will be expressed as\na range of temperature in which the 5-day mean will fall with some specific\nprobability (say 80% or 90%).\nAlthough this method still requires more testing and tuning, it is clear\nthat the temperature predictions are much more skillful than the precipitation\npredictions. In the developmental data sets the variance explained of the 6-10\nday mean temperature, even accounting for the loss of predictability of the\nselected predictors, was mostly between 60 and 70%. As per the example in\nfigure 32, the amount of variance reduction is strongly influenced by the fields\nfrom which the predictors can be chosen. The comparable value for the reduction\nof variance of precipitation, using an earlier and more primitive set of pre-\ndictability factors and predictors, is near 10%.\nIn addition to the above efforts, some advances have been made in the use\nof harmonic smoothing to represent the annual cycle. Results from one study\nshow a simple but consistent objective way of representing daily climatological\nnormals when the given input are monthly means. In another study, a method was\nfound for determining the optimum number of harmonics to use to describe an\nannual cycle without either underfitting or overfitting the observed data.\n6.1.2 Seasonal Empirical Prediction (Livezey, Barnston)\nA QB0 phase-conditional relationship between the 11-year solar flux and\nthe U.S. surface temperature in mid-winter through early spring failed in 1989\nduring the cold ENSO episode. Subsequent research indicated that the state of\nthe ENSO as well as the solar/QBO situation do indeed affect the climate, and\nthat the two factors may offset or enhance one another depending on their values\nand on location. Since then, a QB0 phase-conditional relationship between the\n11-year solar flux cycle and U.S. surface temperatures and Northern Hemisphere\n700 mb heights held up for mid-winter 1990. These findings and other relation-\nships are described in a paper that was submitted for publication (Journal of\nClimate). The manuscript has been revised into two separate papers, with the\nsecond article emphasizing the connection between extratropical wintertime\nclimate, ENSO and the QBO.\n55","EXAMPLES OF THE FREQUENCY OF SELECTION OF PREDICTORS\nAVERAGE ESTIMATED\nPOTENTIAL PREDICTOR\nORDER OF SELECTION\nEXPLAINED VARIANCE\nfield\noffset\n1\n2\n3\n4\n27\nH850\no\no\n31\n21\nH500\n6\n16\n8\n0\n28\n44.3%\nH850\n2\n4\n5\n9\n6\nH 500\n2\n16\n6\n2\n7\nH700\n0\n0\n2\n5\n9\nH500\n0\n0\n7\no\n3\n61.3%\nT850\n31\n27\n0\n42\n32\nT700\n0\n6\n7\n12\n9\nFigure 32 Examples of the frequency of selection and effectiveness of\npredictors for 5-day mean temperatures.\n56","A study was completed on the feasibility to stratify cold season height-\nlag correlations, dependent on whether a warm or a cold ENSO event, or neither,\nis taking place. Correlation fields and their statistical significances are\nbeing generated for operations. An example of the statistical significance\nfield of one-season 700 mb height-lag correlations over North America is shown\nfor all years [figure 33 (a) ], and for only those years when warm or cold ENSO\nevents were in progress [figure 33 (b)].\n6.1.3 Prediction and Specification Studies (van den Dool)\nIn a follow-up to a recently completed study that described 12-hour\nheight forecasts through limited area analogs, numerical experiments are being\nconducted. The purpose is to further understand the workings of antilogs, and\nthe non-linearity of atmospheric flow. New findings show that for a period up\nto 12 hours ahead, the tendency in geopotential is primarily determined by the\nlinear terms in the voticity advection. Therefore, mirror images (antilogs) can\nbe used to study nature's degree of linearity. In an extension of a related\nstudy on mirror images of atmospheric flow, a \"bogus\" analog was constructed\nusing a linear combination of cases. This idea is being tested on the U.S.\nClimate Division data set (1931 - present), which will employ both monthly\ntemperature and precipitation to define an analog.\nIn a joint study (with Z. Toth, Hungary), the lack of success in fore-\ncasts for near-normal weather has been investigated. Results have revealed an\nexplanation of this strange phenomenon. For categorical forecasts (using the\nHeidke skill), the reason for low skill near the mean is that while forecast\nmethods have approximately uniform RMS errors, the class width is narrowest near\nthe center. It was also discovered that for similar reasons the anomaly cor-\nrelation increases linearly with the anomaly magnitude, when the magnitude is\nsmall. A paper, describing these results, is being submitted for publication\n(Weather and Forecasting).\n6.2\nDynamical Methods\n6.2.1. DERF - Operational Feasibility Assessment (Tracton, Ebisuzaki)\nA subset of cases of the DERF III experiment (Lagged-Average Forecast\nversus Monte Carlo ensembles) was rerun with the higher resolution version of\nthe MRF model. In addition to the random perturbation approach, a scheme was\ndeveloped for generating Monte Carlo perturbations based upon differences\nbetween forecasts from NMC, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office. The goal is\nto\ndevelop the optimum strategies for expressing forecast uncertainties, based upon\nthe divergence of predictions within ensembles. The results, separately or in\ncombination with relationships between predictability and regime (see 6.2.2\nbelow), are aimed at developing a capability for predicting forecast skill.\nExperiments, to date, suggest that the details of constructing ensembles are not\nrelevant if the cloud model solutions, as true more often with the low-resolu-\ntion model, does not include a result close to reality. Additional tests with\nthe higher resolution model are in progress.\n57","in\n2\n58\n60N\n384\n4\n60N,\n80\n126 106\nB\n0\n958\n147\n67\n879\nA\n982\n984\n30N\n120W\n964\n98\n9.88\n80W\n520\nwww\n7\n90\n+\n75\n6\n3\nas\n90\n90\n+\n+\n10\n1\n+\n30\n94 90\n+\nB\n21\n36\n+\n29\n97\n18\n90\n9th\n62\n8\nFigure 33 The field of statistical significance of point-wise one-season lag\ncorrelations over North America for fall 700 mb heights leading\nwinter heights, for (part a) all years, and (part b) only years\nduring which warm or cold ENSO events were in progress. The 90%\nand 95% statistical significance levels are contoured.\n58","6.2.2 DERF - Regime Dependent Predictability (Tracton)\nThis study is focused on assessing relationships between predictability\nand circulation regimes. A number of tools and procedures for identifying\nregimes and regime transitions (e.g., teleconnection indices, measures of block-\ning activity, and diagnostics of scale interactions) have been developed and\napplied to DERF and operational MRF data sets. One of the most pronounced rela-\ntionships to emerge is the one between blocking and skill. Detailed diagnoses\nhave established that a key element in predicting blocks is sufficient resolu-\ntion to resolve the interactions between planetary and sub-planetary scales.\nThis work has been extended to investigate the role of scale interaction\nprocesses in regime transitions.\nA comprehensive search was conducted to identify about 30 cases that will\nbe used in additional DERF experiments related to regime predictability. This\neffort, in coordination with NCAR and ECMWF, follows recommendations of a recent\nDERF Workshop (held in Boulder, CO, June 1990). The goal is to provide further\nunderstanding and insights necessary for progress in numerical long-range\nprediction. Forecasts are now being generated for selected cases.\n6.2.3 DERF II Spinoff Test (Tracton)\nThis experimental study, based upon the results of DERF II, was designed\nto explore the practical gains possible from the potential predictability beyond\nthe medium-range. It involved comparisons between operational and \"revised\"\nMonthly Outlooks of surface temperature anomalies over the United States. (The\nrevised forecasts were produced immediately after release of the operational\nOutlook.) These forecasts were based on extensions of the MRF to 15 days and\nmeasures of confidence in the extensions derived from a lagged- average forecast\n(LAF) ensemble spread. The test run began in December 1988 and continued at a\nrate of two cases per month through April 1990. Details of the experimental\ndesign and results have been documented in an internal CAC manuscript. The main\nfinding shows that there is no significant gain in skill through the use of the\nMRF extensions. The problem apparently is due to the limited number of members\n(5) in the LAF ensembles and relative coarseness in their spacing (24 hours).\nWith the recent acquisition of the CRAY computer by NMC, an experiment will be\nimplemented that will include 9-member ensembles and 6-hour spacing.\n6.2.4 MRF Model Skill Prediction (Chen)\nBased on the MRF model, analyses were performed on DERF III experimental\ndata that relate to both Monte Carlo and Lagged Average Forecasts. Preliminary\nresults show that the skills of the Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts are not\ngenerally better than those of the deterministic forecasts. It was also found\nthat the spread among the members of the ensemble is not well correlated to the\nskill of the forecast. It appears that the perturbations to the initial condi-\ntions were too arbitrary and should probably be generated in the regions of\nmaximum dynamic instability. This is where the analysis is most sensitive to\nthe uncertainties of the initial conditions.\n59","6.2.5 MRF Model Behavior and Predictability (Chen)\nAn evaluation was made, using the NMC/MRF model, to assess the impact of\ntransient eddies on the establishment and demise of a blocking flow. An experi-\nment was run for 6-10 day time mean forecasts of 500 mb geopotential height\nanomalies. Figure 34 shows the verification run (panel a) and control run\nresults (panel c) of this experiment. The figure also shows (panel b) that when\nthe fast propagating small-scale disturbances are suppressed from the initial\nconditions, the subsequent forecasts fail in the prediction of block\nestablishment. It can also be noted (panel d) that if the transient eddies are\nenhanced in the initial conditions to compensate for the subsequent deficiency\nof the model, blocking flows are well predicted.\n6.2.6 Prediction of MRF Forecast Errors (0'Lenic)\nA technique to find and remove systematic errors in MRF forecasts,\nelicited by the presence of low-frequency modes in the model initial conditions,\nis being evaluated in the 6-10 day operation. Since the MRF has changed greatly\nsince 1982, an investigation is underway to determine the minimum number of\nprior forecast error fields needed to formulate the systematic error composites.\n6.2.7 Simplified Dynamical Models (van den Dool)\nIn a joint study (Cai, University of Maryland and J. Feng, visiting\nscientist, PRC), teleconnections were calculated dynamically based on a one-\nlayer model similar to a Barotropic Vorticity Equation (BVE) Model. Essentially\na height anomaly is imposed in a certain geographical area and the response is\ncalculated elsewhere. This is similar to the process followed in seasonal and\nmonthly forecasting where a forecaster is confident about the height anomaly in\nsome area(s) and tries to fill in gaps through statistical teleconnections. The\nBVE-model has a wavy basic state, and a scheme was employed to turn non-\nlinearity on or off. This will suppress (enhance) the divergent part of the\nbasic state's flow and can be used for short-term integrations and to find\nsteady states that may be relevant to long-range forecasting. The primary\npurpose of seeking steady atmospheric states is to investigate what happens to\nmonthly mean anomalies when the annual cycle in the basic state evolves while\neverything else stays the same. This was done for the month of August for 10\nyears (1979-1988). Preliminary results indicate that changing the basic state\nhad a beneficial impact on forecasting anomalies for the month of September.\nIn another joint study (with Cai, University of Maryland), a symbiotic\nrelationship was found between low-frequency waves and traveling storm tracks.\nFigure 35 shows storm tracks that travel along with the low frequency wave. It\ncan also be seen that the high frequencies reinforce the low frequencies; that\nis, they cause deepening where a trough already exists. A paper, describing\nthese results, has been written and submitted for publication (Journal of\nAtmospheric Sciences).\n60","HT\n87 16 JAN. . OZ FT =\n0 VERIF\nANA\nHT 500MB 1987 8 JAN. OZ FO= 8.0 30A1C RUN\n0\nb\n40\na\nD\nD\n0\n0\nHT 500MB 1987 8 JAN. OZ FO= 8.0 ETEIC RUN\n500MB 1987 8 JAN. OZ FO= 8.0 CNTRL RUN\nHT\nd\nC\n0\n00\nD\nD\n300\n300\n0\n34 Six to ten day (D+8) time-mean forecasts of 500 mb geopotential\nFigure\nheight anomalies initiated on January 8, 1987: (a) verifying\ncontrol initial\nanalysis, (b) decreased initial condition run, (c)\ncondition run, and (d) enhanced initial run. Positive anomalies\nshown by solid curves, negative anomalies by dashed curves.\nare\nContour interval is 60 meters, the shaded areas represent positive\nanomalies greater than 240 meters.\n61","(a)\nH\n20,\n70,\n(b)\n(c)\n35 The anomaly time-mean fields height for 10 field in (b) is given and in the (c). in feedback (a), The frequency the trough (i.e., in height height zonal\n500-mb\nFigure\ndaily\nheight\nfrom\nhigh frequency of high onto identified low frequencies at 50°N in the to a low reference field. longitude\nof\nthe\nrms\ntendency) wave field (arbitrary), number on each 3 the day. was low The as well maps as were the rotated high frequency\n62","6.3\nEvaluation\n6.3.1 Evaluation of Operational Outlooks (Livezey)\nThe modernization, automation and expansion of the Prediction Branch\nforecast verification system is underway. The existing monthly and seasonal\nsystem had to be reconstructed and forecasts are now again routinely verified in\nreal time, but more efficiently. This improvement is due to both automatic and\ninteractive digitization of observations and official control forecasts. Soft-\nware was then adapted to an Apollo computer, streamlined, and made more\nflexible. These actions are enabling the expansion of the surface forecast\nverification system and the development of an upper-air verification system.\nIn regard to surface verification, developed software now enables the\ngeneration of time-series of forecast skill, long-period contingency tables, and\nmaps of skill in the contiguous United States. This information will eventually\nform the basis for management summaries, and after appropriate research, sub-\nstantial new forecaster and user guidance. The work is motivated by the\narguments presented in a recently published paper (Livezey, BAMS, March 1990)\nthat describes the variability of long-range forecasts and implications for\ntheir use and value. In regard to the upper-air verification system, planning\nwas completed and a skill assessment method that employs a decomposition of\nforecast skill has been designed and tested. The stage is now set for applica-\ntion to studies of upper-air forecast skill variability.\n6.4\nOperational Products\n6.4.1 Six-to-Ten Day Forecasts (Hughes)\nVerification of CAC's operational 6-10 day temperature and precipitation\nforecast shows the following results. It appears that the temperature skill\nscores for both the 3 and 5 class will set records for 1990. So far, 4 monthly\nrecord scores have been set. The 3-class precipitation skill score, however,\nwill probably not set a record for 1990. Instead, it is on the same level as\nthe scores of recent years. From January through September 1990, only 2 monthly\nrecords have been set. The standardized correlation score for CAC's official\nD+8 500-mb height prog for North America is also on the way to a record for\n1990. Figure 36 shows correlation scores for the CAC official prog, the NMC/MRF\nmodel, and the ECMWF model.\n6.4.2 Monthly Outlook (0'Lenic)\nThe skill of CAC's monthly U. S. temperature forecasts, as measured by\nthe Heidke skill score, was above the 1981-1988 average within each season,\nexcept winter, as shown by figure 37. This figure depicts the seasonally-\naveraged skill scores of monthly temperature predictions. One of the most\nchallenging forecast situations faced by Prediction Branch forecasters was the\npreparation of U.S. temperature forecasts for December 1989 and Winter 1989-90.\nWhile, the monthly forecast called for cold in the east, the seasonal forecast\ncalled for warmth in that region. As it turned out, the eastern U.S.\nexperienced one of the coldest Decembers on record (see figure 38), while the\nmean temperature for winter ended up above normal in that region.\n63","D+8 500MB HEIGHTS\n1990\nOFFICIAL\nECMWF\nMRF\nAPPROXIMATELY 13 CASES PER MONTH\nDec.\nOct.\nAug.\nJune\nApr.\nFeb.\nFigure 36 Monthly standardized correlation scores (%) of the D+8 500-mb\nheight progs for North America in 1990. The 3 curves are for the\nNMC/Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, the European Center (ECMWF)\nmodel, and CAC's Official prog. The latter is a blended product\nthat combines the ECMWF prog, a bias-corrected MRF prog, a linear-\nregression prog, and analogs.\n64","Legend: U.S. Average Heidke Skill Score for 100 stations\nS = (C-E)/(T-E)x 100\n30-day temperature\n1981-82 to 1987-88\n1989-90\n25\n20\n15\n10\n5\n0\nSpring\nSummer Autumn\nWinter\nFigure 37 Average Heidke skill score for 100 U. S. stations from CAC's\nmonthly temperature forecasts. Bars show the average forecast\nskill for individual seasons, with 1981-82 to 1987-88 denoted by\nhashed lines and 1989-90 denoted by solid area.\n65","FOR DECEMBER 1989\nHEAVY\n35\nWARM\n3\n45\n30\n35\nLIGHT\nHEAVY\n30\n40\n45\n35\n35\n40\n35\nC\n30\nLIGHT\n35\n30\n30\n40\n35\n30\nPRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES\nTEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES\nOBSERVED FOR DECEMBER 1989\nMOD\nWARM\nM\nN\nNEA\nNORMA\nLIGHTS\nOP\nMOD\nWARM\nCOLD:\nN\nM\nNO\nNEAR\nC.\nN\nNORMAL\nLIGHT\nMOD\nMOD\nLIGHT\nWARM\nCOLD\nN\nMOD\nforecast\nFigure 38 CAC's monthly temperature and precipitation probability\nObserved temperature and precipitation\nfor December 1989 (top) .\nfor December 1989 (bottom).\n66","CAC's monthly U.S. temperature forecasts during the summer (again, see\nfigure 37) were also successful. This result is due in part to useful guidance\nfrom both the MRF model and statistical tools and may indicate a period of\ngreater than average real predictability.\n6.4.3 Seasonal Outlook (0'Lenic)\nCAC's winter 1989-90 temperature forecast for the eastern U.S. called for\nwarmer than average conditions, and despite a record cold December, this is\nindeed what occurred (see figure 39). This guidance was presented before a\ngroup of government and private-sector energy decision makers at an emergency\nmeeting convened at the U.S. Department of Energy. It was held on December 23,\n1989--at the height of the cold outbreak in the eastern United States.\n6.4.4 Modernization of Forecast Operations (0'Lenic)\nA milestone was recorded in the modernization of CAC's forecast opera-\ntions. CAC's published Monthly Outlook for mid-January to mid-February 1990 was\nthe first to be produced using semi-automated procedures. Software, installed\non an Apollo computer, now streamlines the operation of many 30-day products and\nsome products required for the 90-day and 6-10 day operations. Menu-driven\nsoftware permits codes to be invoked in a manner consistent with normal\nprocedures established for the 30-day operation. Also, the use of color plots\nhas proven to be a valuable tool in the conversion from manual to machine manip-\nulation of maps. Plotting anomalies on a map in three different colors often\nmakes the drawing of contours unnecessary. Efforts are continuing toward the\ngoal of automating as many operational procedures as possible.\n6.5\nSupporting Projects\n6.5.1 Anomaly History and Teleconnection (Wagner)\nSeasonal mean temperature and precipitation anomaly maps have now been\nproduced for all overlapping 3-month periods from January-March 1947 to March-\nMay 1990. These maps, along with corresponding seasonal mean 700 mb height and\nanomaly maps, are available to forecasters for selecting specification analogs\nin making seasonal forecasts. This is the first consistent set of seasonal mean\nheight, temperature, and precipitation anomalies that are being computed from\nthe same reference normals for the 1947 - 1990 period.\n6.5.2 Teleconnections (Wagner)\nThe data base from which teleconnection patterns are computed now extends\nfrom January 1947 - March 1989. Teleconnection maps are routinely produced on a\nVersatec printer in support of CAC's 6-10 day and 30-day forecast operations.\nThese maps are also produced for NMC/Meteorological Operations Division in their\n3-, 4-, and 5-day forecast operation. An extensive set of teleconnection maps\nfor each month of the year is now available for use by forecasters.\nIn\naddition, teleconnection maps for all useful locations in the Northern\nHemisphere, north of 20° N latitude, have now been produced on microfilm for the\nmonths December through August (1947 - 1989).\n67","90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 1989 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1990\n40\n32\nACOID\n3$\n32\n50\n35\n45\n30\n40\n30\n35\n3.5\n3\n40\nLIGHT\n30\n35\n32\n40\nTEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES\nPRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES\nOBSERVED FOR DECEMBER 1989 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1990\nNEAR\nWARM\nLIG\nRMAL\nLIGHT\nN\nWARM\nWARM\nHEAVY.\nM\nN\nN\nM\nTEMPERATURE\nPRECIPITATION\nFigure 39 CAC's seasonal temperature and precipitation probability forecast\nfor December 1989-February 1990 (top) .\nObserved temperature and\nprecipitation for December 1989-February 1990 (bottom). .\n68","7. SUMMARIES\nClimate and Global Change Program (Rodenhuis, Ropelewski, Leetmaa,\n7.1\nReynolds, Miller)\nCAC is a participant in a number of FY 1990 Tier I Projects under the\nNOAA Climate and Global Change Program. These include: Ozone (with ERL), Vege-\ntation Index (with NESDIS), Climate Data Assimilation System (with NMC),\nDiagnostics (with ERL), Perspectives (with NCDC), and Global Precipitation\nClimatology Project (with WMO/WCRP). In addition, a Tier II proposal, entitled\n\"Implementation of the Ocean Component of an Operational Coupled Ocean-\nAtmosphere System\" (Leetmaa, CAC), was funded for the last 6 months of FY 1990.\nThe primary focus of Climate and Global Change activities is on climate\ndiagnostics, climate monitoring, climate trends, and ocean modeling. The accom-\nplishments for related tasks are described in preceding sections of this report.\nThey include: Sections 1.2.3; 2.1.2, 2.1.3, 2.1.5, 2.2.1, 2.2.2; 3.1.1; and\n4.2.1.\nTOGA Activities (Diagnostics Branch Staff)\n7.2\nThe primary focus of TOGA activities is on operational monitoring of the\nENSO and oceanic-atmospheric fluctuations. The accomplishments for related\ntasks are described in preceding sections of this report. They include:\nSections 1.1.2, 1.1.4, 1.2.4.1, 1.2.5; 2.1.1, 2.1.6, 2.3.1 and 2.4.1.\nThe TOGA Panel was briefed (by Ropelewski) on the current state of the\nSouthern Oscillation and on the CAC Forecast Forum and related activities\n(December 12, 1989) CAC staff (Rodenhuis, Leetmaa, and Ropelewski)\nparticipated in an a TOGA Program Office sponsored Workshop on ENSO Prediction\nCenters (June 11-12, 1990). Also, papers were presented (by Reynolds) on ocean\nmodels and data assimilation before the Ad Hoc Panel on TOGA XBT Strategy and at\nthe TOGA Scientific Conference (Honolulu, HI, July 13-20, 1990).\n7.3 EPOCS Activities (Diagnostics Branch Staff)\nThe primary focus of EPOCS activities is on diagnostic studies of the\ntropical ocean-atmosphere. The accomplishments for related tasks are described\nin preceding sections of this report. They include: Sections 1.1.1, 1.1.3,\n1.2.1, 1.2.2, and 1.2.4.2.\nA FY 1990 EPOCS proposal, entitled \"Analysis of the Global SO Signal\"\n(Ropelewski, P.I.), was approved. Proposals that were submitted to the EPOCS\nProgram for support in FY 1991 included: \"Comparison of NMC Model Precipitation\nForecasts and Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in the Tropics\" (Janowiak,\nP.I.); \"Tropical Convection and Associated Global Circulation Changes\"\n(Ropelewski and Chelliah, P.I.'s); and \"Atmospheric Teleconnection Dynamics\nDuring the 1986-90 ENSO Cycle\" (Mo and Rasmusson, P.I's).\nA paper was presented (by Reynolds) on the NMC operational surface\nfluxes at the EPOCS Annual Meeting (Miami, FL, January 18-19, 1990).\n69","7.4\nBilateral Activities\n7.4.1 U.S.-Brazijan Bilateral Agreement (Kousky)\nUnder the auspices of the U.S. - Brazil Bilateral Agreement for Science\nand Technology, 3 scientists from the Brazilian Institute for Space Research\ncompleted working visits at NMC's South American \"desk\" and returned to Brazil.\nThey are: Ms. C. Studzinski (Nov. 1989 - Feb. 1990); Ms. C. Uvo (Jan.\n- May\n1990) and Ms. A. C. Perella (June - Aug. 1990). In August, Ms. Odete Chiesa,\nBrazilian Weather Service, started a four month working visit. All of the\nvisiting scientists participated in forecast evaluation studies and in the prep-\naration of numerical forecast discussions, which are disseminated on the Global\nTelecommunications System (GTS) to all South American countries.\nDaily discussions and forecasts were prepared (by Kousky) which were\ndistributed to South American countries via the GTS. Also, a description of\nthe current climate anomalies in the tropical Pacific were prepared each month\n(by Kousky) and disseminated to South American countries. In addition, Kousky\nwas a co-organizer of a Workshop on Numerical Weather Prediction [held at INPE,\nSao Jose dos Campos, Brazil (April 2-6, 1990)], and he also participated in the\nFirst Working Group Meeting under the U.S./Brazil Science and Technology\nInitiative in the areas of Oceanography and Meteorology [Sao Jose dos Campos,\nBrazil (August 22-24, 1990) ].\n7.4.2 U.S.-Soviet Bilateral Agreement (Rodenhuis, Livezey, Ropelewski)\nFour Soviet scientists attended the Fourteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics\nWorkshop, in La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989. Three of the Soviet scientists\nsubsequently visited the CAC (November 25-30, 1989). A CAC scientist (Livezey)\nvisited the World Data Center at Obninsk in August 1990.\nA Soviet-sponsored Workshop on \"The Diagnosis and Prediction of Short-\nTerm Climate Variations\" was held (Nov. 13-17, 1989) in Moscow, U.S.S.R. The\nU.S. delegation was headed by C. Ropelewski and also included: D. Rodenhuis and\nR. Livezey (NMC/CAC), H. van den Dool (University of Maryland), M. Wallace\n(University of Washington), and D. Gutzler (AER Inc).\nPlans were completed for an exchange and joint project with the USSR\nDept. of Climate Monitoring and Probabilistic Forecasting, Hydrometeorological\nResearch Center. The exchange and work will focus on the capabilities of two\nobjective forecast systems. Working visits to Moscow have now been made by CAC\nscientists (R. Livezey, August 1990; A. Barnston, September 1990). Reciprocal\nvisits will be made to the CAC by several Soviet scientists in January 1991.\n7.5\nWorld Climate Program Activities\n7.5.1 Climate Systems Monitoring (Ropelewski, Rodenhuis)\nCAC staff (Rodenhuis, Ropelewski) participated in a WMO/Climate Change\nDetection Project Planning Meeting (Silver Spring, MD, January 1990). Project\ngoals, milestones and a budget were drafted at this meeting. This project is an\noutgrowth of the Commission on Climatology Meeting (Lisbon, Portugal, April\n1989). Another meeting is planned for Toronto, Canada (November 1990).\n70","CAC supplies a large portion of the material published by the World\nClimate Programme in its Climate System Monitoring (CSM) Monthly Bulletin. In\naddition, C. Ropelewski is an active participant at the CSM's Annual Meeting.\n7.5.2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (Janowiak, Arkin)\nThe Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Manager, P. Arkin,\nwas transferred to the NOAA/ Office of Climatic and Atmospheric Research in\nNovember 1989. Prior to his departure, discussions were held with NESDIS\nregarding Tier II proposals for support of calibration/validation activities and\nrainfall estimation from microwave sensors.\nA number of GPCP-related activities (by J. Janowiak) occurred during the\nyear, under Climate and Global Change support. These included: participation\nat a meeting, held at the British Meteorological Office, to plan the GPCP/\nAlgorithm Intercomparison Project II (April 1990); a visit to the Global\nPrecipitation Climatology Center at the German Weather Service, Offenbach,\nFRG (May 1990) participation at a TRMM Data Management Meetings at NASA/Goddard\n(December 1989 and June 1990) and participation at a NOAA Precipitation Science\nTeam Meeting, Camp Springs, MD (June 1990).\n7.5.3 Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX) (Janowiak, Arkin)\nA paper, describing the potential applications of IR threshold rainfall\nestimation techniques in middle and high latitudes, was presented (by Arkin) at\na GEWEX Working Group Meeting on Precipitation (NASA/Goddard Space Flight\nCenter, October 1989). Also, training was received (by J. Janowiak) on the use\nof a \"WETNET\" workstation (NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, February 1990).\n7.5.4 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Ropelewski)\nInput for an IPCC Report (Working Group 1, Chapter 7) was revised and\nsubmitted to the principal authors. CAC was represented (by Ropelewski) at the\nIPCC Authors Workshop, held in Worcestershire, U.K., (Nov. 29-Dec. 1, 1989).\n7.5.5 Commission on Climatology (CC1) (Rodenhuis)\nA WMO/CCT Meeting was held in Geneva, Switzerland (April 1990). It was\nattended by D. Rodenhuis, who is a member of the Advisory Working Group and\nRapporteur for climate change. He is also the Chairman of the Working Group of\nClimate Rapporteurs for the WMO/CAS.\n7.6 National Weather Service Programs\n7.6.1 Data Management (Ropelewski)\nCAC participated (Ropelewski) on the NMC Committee on Data Base\nManagement and provided input to the Plan. A meeting was held NWS Headquarters\nto coordinate the National Weather Service's contribution to the program.\n71","7.6.2 ASOS Climate Working Group (Ropelewski, Rodenhuis)\nAn ASOS Climate Working Group report was drafted, revised, and\ndistributed to the ASOS Project Office and Working Group members. The Project\nOffice response to the report was received and has been distributed to the\nWorking Group for comment.\nMeetings were attended (by Ropelewski, CAC and Canfield, U. of Maryland)\nto coordinate NMC input to the NOAA Data Directory Project. Data Information\nForms for a representative sample of CAC products were completed and submitted.\nThe ASOS Steering Group was briefed (by Ropelewski) on the activities of\nthe Climate Working Group (December 15, 1989). Also, CAC staff (Rodenhuis and\nRopelewski) met with representatives of the ASOS Program Office in Siver Spring,\nMD (May 31, 1990). A strategy was developed for reviewing a NWS/ASOS Climate\nPolicy and Plan.\n7.7\nAnnual Climate Diagnostics Workshop\n7.7.1 Fourteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop (Rodenhuis, Janowiak)\nThe NMC/Climate Analysis Center and Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nwere co-sponsors of the Fourteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop held in\nLa Jolla, CA (October 16-20, 1989). These Workshops provide a forum for\nresearchers to present recent results and to exchange ideas on a variety of\nclimate topics. This meeting focused on: ENSO analysis and prediction, ocean-\natmosphere interaction, and global climate variability. There were 89 papers\npresented; a Proceedings was published and distributed in March 1990.\n7.7.2 Fifteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop (Rodenhuis, Ropelewski)\nArrangements were completed to hold the Fifteenth Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop in Asheville, NC. The NESDIS/National Climatic Data\nCenter has agreed to co-host the Workshop which is scheduled for October 29 -\nNovember 2, 1990. Invititations to the Workshop were mailed and a workshop\nannouncement was published in the Bulletin of the AMS (June 1990).\n72","8. BIBLIOGRAPHY\n8.1 Journal Articles\nArkin, P. A., and P. E. Ardanuy, \"Estimating climatic-scale precipitation from\nspace: A review,\" Journal of Climate, 2, 11, Nov. 1989, pp. 1229-1238.\nBarnston, A. G. and R. E. Livezey, \"A closer look at the effect of the 11-year\nsolar cycle and the quasi-biennial oscillation on Northern Hemisphere 700\nmb height and extratropical North American surface temperature,\" Journal\nof Climate, 2, 11, Nov. 1989, pp. 1295-1313.\nChelliah, M., \"The global climate for June-August 1989: A season of near normal\nconditions in the tropical Pacific,\" Journal of Climate, 3, 1, Jan. 1990,\npp. 138-162.\nChen, W-Y., \"Interannual variability of skill of NMC medium-range forecasts over\nthe Pacific/North America sector,\" Monthly Weather Review, 118, 1, Jan.\n1990, pp. 179-188.\nEpstein. E. S. and A. G. Barnston, \"A precipitation climatology of 5-day\nperiods, Journal of Climate, 3, 2, Feb. 1990, pp.218-236.\nFarrara, J. D., M. Ghil, C. R. Mechoso, and K. Mo, \"Empirical orthagonal\nfunctions and multiple flow regimes in the Southern Hemisphere winter, =\nJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 46, Oct. 1989, pp. 3219-3223.\nHalpert, M. S., , \"The global climate for September-November 1989: Normal\ntropical Pacific conditions continue,\" Journal of Climate, 3, 3, Mar.\n1990, pp. 394-413.\nJanowiak, J. E., \"The global climate for December 1989-February 1990: Extreme\ntemperature variations in North America, persistent warmth in Europe and\nAsia, and the return of ENSO-like conditions in the western Pacific,\"\nJournal of Climate, 3, 6, June 1990, pp. 685-709.\nKann, D. M., R. A. Petersen, and G. J. DiMego, \"The effect of surface\nobservations on low-level temperatures in the National Meteorological\nCenter regional analysis scheme, Monthly Weather Review, 118, 3, Mar. 1990\npp. 772-777.\nKousky, V. E. and C. F. Ropelewski, \"Extremes in the Southern Oscillation and\ntheir relationship to precipitation anomalies with emphasis on the South\nAmerican Region,\" Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 4, pp.351-353.\nLe Comte, D. M., \"The weather of 1989: Highlights in the U. S. , = Weatherwise,\n43, Feb. 1990, pp. 8-15.\nLe Comte, D. M., , \"The weather of 1989: Highlights around the world,\n=\nWeatherwise, 43, Feb. 1990, pp. 16-18.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Variability of skill of long-range forecasts and implications\nfor their use and value,\" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,\n71, 3, Mar. 1990, pp. 300-309.\n73","Livezey, R. E., A. G. Barnston, and B. K. Neumeister, \"Mixed analog/persistence\nprediction of seasonal mean temperatures for the U.S.A., International\nJournal of Climatology, 10, 1990, pp. 329-340.\nNagatani, R. M., A. J. Miller, M. E. Gelman, and P. A. Newman, \"A comparison of\nArctic lower stratospheric winter temperatures for 1988-89 with\ntemperatures since 1964,\" Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE),\nGeophysical Research Letters, 17, 4, AASE Special Issue, March 1990,\nSupplement, pp. 333-336.\nNewman, P. A., L. R. Lait, M. R. Schoeberl, and R. M. Nagatani, \"Stratospheric\ntemperatures during the 1988-89 Northern Hemisphere winter,\" Geophysical\nResearch Letters, 17, 4, AASE Special Issue, March 1990, Supplement, pp.\n329-332.\nRasmusson, E. M., X. Wang, and C. F. Ropelewski, \"The biennial component of ENSO\nvariability,\" Journal of Marine Systems, 1, 1990, pp. 71-96.\nReynolds, R. W., C. K. Folland, and D. E. Parker, \"Biases in satellite-derived\nsea-surface-temperature data,\" Nature, 341, 1989, pp. 728-731.\nRogers, E., G. J. DiMego, J. P. Gerrity, R. A. Petersen, B. D. Schmidt, and D.\nM. Kann, \"Data assmilation experiments using GALE data at the National\nMeteorological Center,\" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,\n71, 3, Mar. 1990, pp. 319-333.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"Monitoring large-scale cryosphere/atmosphere interactions,\"\nAdvances in Space Research, 9, 7, 1990, pp. 213-218.\nShin, K-S., G. R. North, Y-S. Ahn, and P. A. Arkin, \"Time scales and variability\nof area-averaged tropical oceanic rainfall,\" Monthly Weather Review, 118,\n7, July 1990, pp. 1507-1516.\nTracton, M. S., \"Predictability and its relationship to scale interaction\nprocesses in blocking,\" Monthly Weather Review, 118, 8, Aug. 1990, pp.\n1666-1675.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"A new look at weather forecasting through analogues,\"\nMonthly Weather Review, 117, 10, Oct. 1989, pp. 2230-2247.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"1988 in de Bilt het warmste jaar van de eeuw: Hoe\nuitzonderlijk is deze warmte?,\" Zenit, 16, 1989, pp. 433-437.\nvan den Dool, H. M., = Time-mean precipitation and vertical motion patterns over\nthe United States,\" Tellus, 42A, 1990, pp. 51-64.\nvan den Dool, H. M. and S. Saha, \"Frequency dependence in forecast skill,\"\nMonthly Weather Review, 118, 1, Jan. 1990, pp. 128-137.\nVautard, R., K. Mo and M. Ghil, \"Statistical significance test for transition\nmatrices of atmospheric Markov chains,\" Journal of the Atmospheric\nSciences, 47, Aug. 1990, pp. 1926-1931.\nWagner, A. J., \"The weather of 1989: Northern Hemisphere circulation,\"\nWeatherwise, 43, Feb. 1990, pp. 19-22.\n74","8.2 Articles in Non-Refereed Literature *\nArkin. P. A., \"Estimation of large-scale tropical rainfall for TOGA, =\nProceedings of the Western Pacific International Meeting and Workshop on\nTOGA/COARE, Noumea, New Caldonia, 1989, pp. 561-570.\nArkin, P. A. and J. E. Janowiak, \"Observing precipitation from space,\nProceedings of the Symposium on Global Change Systems, Special Sessions on\nClimate Variations and Hydrology, Anaheim, CA, February 5-9, 1990, pp. 116-\n121.\nBarnston, A. G., and R. E. Livezey, \"A statistical evaluation of an association\nbetween the QBO and the Northern Hemisphere lower atmosphere, Proceedings\nof the 11th AMS Conference on Probability and Statistics, Monterey, CA,\nOctober 2-6, 1989, pp. 318-324.\nBarnston, A. G. and R. E. Livezey, \"Statistical prediction of January-February\nmean North American climate from an 11-year solar cycle and ENSO, for west\nQBO phase years,\" Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics\nWorkshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 333-338.\nBarnston, A. G. and R. E. Livezey, \"The Northern Hemisphere mean January-\nFebruary flux-climate relationship -- 1989 update,\" Proceedings of the\nWorkshop on Mechanisms for Tropospheric Effects of Solar Variability and\nthe Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Boulder, CO, 1989, pp. 174-181.\nBarnston, A. B. and C. F. Ropelewski, \"Prediction of ENSO episodes using\ncanonical correlation analysis,\" Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 307-312.\nBonner, W. D., E. Kalnay, J. D. Stackpole and V. E. Kousky, \"Numerical weather\nprediction for the Southern Hemisphere at NMC Washington,\" Extended\nAbstracts of the Third International Conference on Southern Hemisphere\nMeteorology and Oceanography, Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 13-17,\n1989, pp. 4-12.\nCampana, K. A., P. M. Caplan, G. H. White, S-K. Yang, and H. M. Juang, \"Impact\nof changes to cloud parameterization on the forecast error of NMC's global\nmodel,\" Proceedings of the 7th AMS Radiation Conference, San Francisco,\nCA, July 23-27, 1990, pp. J152-J158.\nChelliah, M. and P. A. Arkin, \"Interannual variability and trends indicated by\nOLR,\" Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, La\nJolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 216-221.\nChen, W-Y., \"Dynamical prediction in the extended range employing low-frequency\nPNA mode,\" Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, La\nJolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 324-327.\nIn this Section, 40 of the references also included a presentation at a\nformal scientific meeting.\n75","Epstein, E. S. , \"Expected number of hits for multiple categorical forecasts of\nprecipitation occurrences,\" Proceedings of the 11th AMS Conference on\nProbability and Statistics, Monterey, CA, October 2-6, 1989, pp. 129-131.\nHalpert, M. S., P. A. Arkin, C. F. Ropelewski, and R. Tomlinson, \"The\ndevelopment and utilization of an AVHRR-based vegetation index for climate\nmonitoring, Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop,\nLa Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 211-215.\nHughes, F. D., \"Skill of medium range forecasts,\" NMC Office Note No. 364 Feb.\n1990, 114 pp.\nJanowiak, J. E., P. A. Arkin and D. Davidowicz, \"Variations in tropical\nrainfall, as inferred from satellite observations of cloud-top\ntemperature,\" Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop,\nLa Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 8-11.\nJunker, N. W., Hoke, J. E., Sullivan, B. E., Petersen, R. A., and F. D. Hughes,\n\"Seasonal and geographical variations in predicting precipitation by two of\nNMC's operational baroclinic models,\" Proceedings of the Third Workshop on\nOperational Meteorology, AES, Montreal, Quebec, May 2-4, 1990, pp. 221-228.\nKann, D. M., S-K. Yang, and A. J. Miller, \"Atmospheric energetics and earth\nradiation budget; Proceedings of the 7th AMS Radiation Conference, San\nFrancisco, CA, July 23-27, 1990, pp. J129-J131.\nKayano, M. T. and V. E. Kousky, \"Southern Hemisphere blocking climatology, \"\nExtended Abstracts of the Third International Conference on Southern\nHemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Buenos Aires, Argentina, November\n13-17, 1989, pp. 132-133.\nKayano, M. T. , V. E. Kousky, C. D. Studzinski, and P. L. S. Dias,\n\"Intraseasonal variations in Brazil precipitation during the summer of\n1989/1990, (In Portuguese), Climanalise, 5, No. 4, 1990, pp. 40-50.\nKayano, M. T. and V. E. Kousky, \"Further evidence of the E1 Niño influence on\nthe Brazilian climate variations, Extended Abstracts of the Third\nSymposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts with Emphasis on\nLong-Range Forecasting, Niamey, Niger, Apr. 30 - May 4, 1990, pp. 95-101.\nKlein, W. H. and E. S. Epstein, \"Six-ten day probability forecasts of daily\nprecipitation frequency, = Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp.350-356.\nKlein, W. H., E. S. Epstein, and T. J. Perrone, \"Specifying probability\nanomalies of daily precipitation frequency during 5-day periods,\"\nProceedings of the 11th AMS Conference on Probability and Statistics,\nMonterey, CA, October 2-6, 1989, pp. 35-39.\nKousky, V. E., \"Recent extremes in the Southern Oscillation: Evolution of\noceanic and atmospheric anomalies and their impact on precipitation,\nII\n(Invited paper.) Extended Abstracts of the Third International Conference\non Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Buenos Aires,\nArgentina, November 13-17, 1989, pp. 357-360.\n76","Kousky, V. E. and M. Ji, \"Tropical sea level pressure variations and related\noceanic and atmospheric anomaly patterns,\" Extended Abstracts of the Third\nInternational Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and\nOceanography, Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 13-17, 1989, pp. 404-406.\nKousky, V. E. and C. F. Ropelewski, \"Atmospheric circulation changes associated\nwith extremes of the Southern Oscillation during 1986-1989, Proceedings of\nthe Fourteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA, October\n16-20, 1989, pp. 1-7.\nLeetmaa, A. \"Operational ocean modeling for climate and global change: Status\nand priorities for future work,\" CAC Internal Report, May 1990, 12pp.\nLehman, R. E., \"Quick projections of monthly outcomes system,\" Preprint Volume\nof the Sixth AMS International Conference on Interactive Information and\nProcessing Systems, Anaheim, CA, February 5-9, 1990, pp. 201-205.\nLehman, R. L., \"Needs related to climate information,\" Sub-Task 3: Trends in\nNational Needs related to Economic Efficiency and Competetiveness, NOAA\nStrategic Plan, August 1990.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Teleconnection studies and the empirical description of the\nlow-frequency quasi-stationary circulation, Proceedings of the Fourth\nInternational Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Rotorua, New Zealand,\n1989, pp. 79-86.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Variability of skill of long-range forecasts and implications\nfor their use and value,\" Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 301-306.\nMiskus, D. and J. D. Laver, \"Near-real time weekly assessments of global climate\nanomalies, Drought Network News, 2, 1, International Drought Information\nCenter, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, Feb. 1990, pp. 14-16.\nMo, K., J. R. Zimmerman, E. Kalnay, and M. Kanamitsu, \"A GCM study on the 1988\nU. S. drought, Proceedings of the Fourteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics\nWorkshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 245-249.\nNewman, P. A., L. R. Lait, M. R. Schoeberl, R. M. Nagatani, and A. J. Krueger,\n\"Meteorological Atlas of the Northern Hemisphere Lower Stratosphere\nfor January and February 1989 during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric\nExpedition,\" NASA Technical Memorandum 4145, November 1989, 185 pp.\nO'Lenic, E. A., \"Modernization of long-range prediction operations at NMC,\nProceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA,\nOctober 16-20, 1989, pp. 381-384.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Climatological sea surface temperature signals from\nsatellites,\" Proceedings of the Symposium on Global Change Systems,\nSpecial Sessions on Climate Variations and Hydrology, Anaheim, CA,\nFebruary 5-9, 1990, pp. 123-126.\nReynolds, R. W. and A. Leetmaa, \"Evaluation of NMC's operational surface\nfluxes in the tropical Pacific,\" Proceedings of the Western Pacific\nInternational Meeting and Workshop on TOGA/COARE, Noumea, New Caledonia,\nMay 24-30, 1989, pp. 535-541.\n77","Roads, J. 0. and N. Maisel, \"Numerical model precipitation forecasts, =\nProceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA,\nOctober 16-20, 1989, pp. 313-318.\nRopelewski C. F. \"Large-scale circulation, the Southern Oscillation, and\ndrought, Extended Abstracts of the Third Symposium on Meteorological\nAspects of Tropical Droughts with Emphasis on Long-Range Forecasting,\nNiamey, Niger, Apr. 30-May 4, 1990, pp. 1-6.\nRopelewski, C. F. and M. S. Halpert, \"Uncovering North American temperature\nand precipitation patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation,\nProceedings of the 6th Annual PACLIM Conference, Pacific Grove, CA, 1989,\npp. 42-43.\nRopelewski, C. F. and M. S. Halpert, \"Interannual variability and the detection\nof climate trends,\" Proceedings of the Symposium on Global Change Systems,\nSpecial Sessions on Climate Variations and Hydrology, Anaheim, CA, February\n5-9, 1990, pp. 123-126.\nRopelewski, C. F. , M. S. Halpert and E. M. Rasmusson, \"Interannual climate vari-\nability in the global tropics,\" Proceedings of the 4th International Meet-\ning on Statistical Climatology, Rotorua, New Zealand, 1989, pp. 252-254.\nRopelewski, C. F., M. S. Halpert and E. M. Rasmusson, \"Biennial variability in\ntropical SST and winds, Proceedings of the Fourteenth Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 84-90.\nStaff, Climate Analysis Center and National Climatic Data Center, II Climate\nAssessment for 1989: Selected Indicators of Global Climate,\" Camp Springs,\nMD, March 1990, 21 pp.\nUvo, C. R. B., and V. E. Kousky, \"Correlation between estimated precipitation by\nsatellite and observed precipitation over the state of Ceara,\" (In\nPortuguese), Climanalise, 5, No. 5, 1990, pp. 38-42.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Dynamic forecast of the next month's flow,\" Proceedings of\nthe 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20,\n1989, pp. 319-323.\nWagner, A. J., \"Medium and long-range forecasting at the National Meteorological\nCenter, II Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, La\nJolla, CA, Oct. 16-20, 1989, pp. 375-380.\nWang, X. and E. M. Rasmusson, \"ENSO-related variability as revealed by singular\nspectrum analysis,\" Proceedings of the 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics\nWorkshop, La Jolla, CA, October 16-20, 1989, pp. 91-95.\nYang, S. K., H. M. Juang, K. A. Campana, and A. J. Miller, \"Validating cloud\nfield and outgoing longwave radiation generated by NMC medium-range\nforecast model with ERBE and Air Force real time nephanalysis, Proceedings\nof the 7th AMS Radiations Conference, San Francisco, CA, July 23-27, 1990,\npp. 145-148.\n78","8.3 Presentations at Formal Scientific Meetings *\nBarnston, A. G., 'January-February tropospheric climate for the Northern Hemi-\nsphere and the 11-year solar cycle, the QB0 and the Southern Oscillation,\npresented at the International Conference on the Climate Impact of Solar\nVariability, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, April 25, 1990.\nBarnston, A. G., \"The Statistical testing of association between the 11-year\nsolar cycle, the QBO, and the climate,\" presented at the XXVIII COSPAR\nPlenary Meeting, The Hague, Netherlands, June 29, 1990.\nCai, M., and H. M. van den Dool, \"Symbotic relationship between low frequency\nwaves and traveling storm tracks,\" presented at the NCAR Workshop on\nNumerical Long Range Prediction, Boulder, CO, June 4-8, 1990.\nChen, W-Y., \"Interannual variability of skill of NMC medium-range forecasts and\nfeasibility of dynamical forecasting in the extended range,\" presented at\nthe Twelfth Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Monterey, CA,\nOctober 2-6, 1989.\nChen, W-Y., \"Effect of transient eddies on blocking flow: GCM experiments,\"\npresented at the NCAR Workshop on Numerical Long Range Prediction, Boulder,\nCO, June 4-8, 1990.\nEbisuzaki, W., \"Monte Carlo forecasting of blocking developments,\" presented at\nthe NCAR Workshop on Numerical Long Range Prediction, Boulder, CO, June 4-\n8, 1990.\nGelman, M. E., \"Radiosonde intercomparisons and adjustments applied at NMC,\"\npresented at the Upper-Air Measurements and Instrumentation Workshop at\nWallops Island, VA, November 14-15, 1989.\nGelman, M. E., \"Solar cycle relationships between upper stratosphere temperature\nand ozone,\" presented at the Seventh International Symposium on Solar-\nTerrestrial Physics, the Hague, the Netherlands, June 1990.\nHeddinghaus, T. R., \"Monitoring and dissemination of drought conditions at the\nJoint Agricultural Weather Facility,\" presented at the Drought Management\nand Planning Seminar & Workshop, Denver, CO, May 30-June 1, 1990.\nHalpert, M. S., , \"The development and utilization of an AVHRR-based Vegetation\nIndex for climate monitoring,\" presented at the Workshop on the Use of\nSatellite-Derived Vegetation Indices in Weather and Climate Prediction\nModels,\" Camp Springs MD, February 26-27, 1990.\nHughes, F. D., \"Medium-range forecasts at NMC,\" presented at the Workshop on\nNumerical Weather Prediction, INPE, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, April 2-6,\n1990.\n* There were 40 additional presentations that were also published in a\nProceedings or a Preprint Volume of a Formal Scientific Meeting. These 40\nreferences are listed only in Section 8.2.\n79","Kousky, V. E., \"Current state of the Southern Oscillation,\" (Invited talk),\npresented at the Third International Conference on Southern Hemisphere\nMeteorology and Oceanography, Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 13-17,\n1989.\nKousky, V. E., \"Precipitation anomalies associated with extremes of the Southern\nOscillation, presented at the Workshop on Long Range Climate Prediction,\nMontevideo, Uruguay, November 20-21, 1989.\nKousky V. E. \"Atmospheric circulation features prior to and during the 1988\nDrought, (Invited talk), presented at the Workshop on the 1988 North\nAmerican Drought, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, April 30 - May\n2, 1990.\nLaver. J. D. \"Climate services issues relevant to state climatologists,\"\npresented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association of State\nClimatologists, Atlantic City, NJ, August 6-8, 1990.\nLeComte, D. M., \"Monitoring drought at the JAWF,\" presented at the 15th Annual\nNatural Hazards Research and Applications Workshop, Boulder, CO, July, 18,\n1990.\nLeetmaa, A., , 11 The role of ocean and atmospheric models in the analysis and\nprediction of sea level variability,\" II presented at the Joint Oceanographic\nInstitutions Sea Level Workshop, Woods Hole, MA, May 2-4, 1990.\nLehman, R. L., \"Applications of NWS Research to the Gas Industry\", Annual\nMeeting of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners,\nWashington, D.C., February 26, 1990.\nLehman, R. E., \"New climate impact assessment tools,\" presented at the U.S.\nDept. of Energy Pre-Summer Energy Assessment Conference, Washington, D.C.,\nApril 27, 1990.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Variability of skill of long-range forecasts and implications\nfor their use and value,\" presented at the Workshop on Diagnosis and\nForecasting of Short-Term Climate Variations on the Season-Year-Decade\nTime-Scale, Moscow, USSR, November 11-18, 1989.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Summer outlooks,\" presented at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Pre-\nSummer Energy Assessment Conference, Washington, D.C., April 27, 1990.\nMiller, A. J., \"A review of satellite observations of atmospheric ozone,\"\n(Invited paper), presented at the AMS Conference on Climate Variations,\nAnaheim, CA, February 6-9, 1990.\nMiller, A. J., \"Atmospheric Energetics, (Invited paper), presented at the SPIE\nConference, Orlando, FL, April 1990.\nMiller, A. J., \"The ground-based network,\" (Invited paper), presented at the\nInternational School of Space Physics, Marseilles, France, August 1990.\nMo, K. C., \"Singular spectral analysis and its applications,\" presented at the\n11th Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences,\nMonterey, CA, October 1-5, 1989.\n80","Mo, K. C., \"Oscillatory modes in the Southern Hemisphere, presented at the\nThird International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and\nOceanography, Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 13-17, 1989.\nMo K. C., \"A GCM study on the 1988 U.S. drought,\" (Invited talk), presented at\nthe Workshop on the 1988 North American Drought, University of Maryland,\nCollege Park, MD, April 30- May 2, 1990.\nMo, K. C., \"Impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on the skill of monthly\nforecasts,\" presented at NCAR Workshop on Long-Range Prediction, Boulder,\nCO, June 8, 1990.\n0'Lenic, E., \"Short-term climate prediction in the Great Lakes Region,\" pre-\nsented at the Great Lakes Commission Symposium: Great Lakes Water Levels\nForecasting and Statistics for Decision Making, Windsor, Ontario, Canada,\nMay 17, 1990.\nReynolds, R. W. , \"NMC operational surface fluxes,\" presented at the Annual EPOCS\nMeeting, Miami, FL, January 18-20,1990.\nReynolds, R. W., , II Data assimilation-tropical oceans,\" presented at the Inter-\nnational TOGA Conference, Honolulu, Hi, July 16-20, 1990.\nRodenhuis, D. R., \"Numerical prediction of climate anomalies at the CAC/NMC,\" II\npresented at the Conference on the Diagnosis of Short-Term Climate\nVariations, Moscow, USSR, November 11-21, 1989.\nRodenhuis, D. R., \"NOAA Climate Services,\" presented at the Annual Meeting of\nthe American Association of State Climatologists, Atlantic City, NJ, August\n6-8, 1990.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"A review of global precipitation and surface temperature\npatterns associated with the Southern Oscillation,\" presented at the\nWorkshop on the Diagnosis and Prediction of Short-Term Climate Variations,\nMoscow, USSR, November 13-17, 1989.\nRopelewski. C. F., \"Natural climate variability and the Southern Oscillation,\"\npresented at the SW Connecticut State University Conference on Weather and\nClimate Variability, Danbury, CT, February 21-23, 1990.\nStefanski, R. J., \"Estimation of county-level corn development and yield with\nCERES-MAIZE in the U. S. Corn Belt,\" presented at a poster session at\nAmerican Society of Agronomy Meeting, Las Vegas, NV, October 15-20, 1989.\nTracton, M. S., \"Predictability and its relationship to scale interaction\nprocesses in blocking,\" presented at the Twelfth AMS Conference on Weather\nAnalysis and Forecasting, Monterey, CA, October 2-6, 1989.\nTracton, M. S., \"Preliminary evaluation of quasi-operational DERF at CAC,\"\npresented at the NCAR Workshop on Numerical Long Range Prediction,\nBoulder, CO, June 4-8, 1990.\n81","van den Dool, H. M. \"Evaluation of skill of NWP, implication for long-range\nweather prediction,\" presented at the Workshop on Diagnosis and Forecasting\nof Short-Term - Climate Variations on the Season-Year-Decade Time-Scale,\nMoscow, USSR, November 15, 1989.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Mirror images of atmospheric flow,\" presented at the XVth\nAssembly of the European Geophysical Society, Copenhagen, Denmark, April\n16-20, 1990.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Toward forecasting the last 2 or 3 weeks of the next\nmonth,\" presented at the NCAR Workshop on Numerical Long Range Prediction,\nBoulder, CO, June 4-8, 1990.\nvan den Dool, H. M. \"Medium and long-range prediction at CAC,\" presented at the\nSoil Conservation Service/NWS Technical Working Group, Salt Lake City, UT,\nAugust 15, 1990.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Medium and long-range prediction at CAC,\" presented at the\nColorado River Forecasting System Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT, August 16,\n1990.\nYang, S-K., \"Data archive and grid size considerations,\" presented at the 2nd\nCERES Science Team Meeting, NASA/Langley Research Center, Langley, VA,\nNovember 6-8, 1989.\n82","8.4 Seminars and Briefings\nArkin, P. A., \"Potential applications of IR threshold rainfall estimation\ntechniques in high latitudes,\" presented at the GEWEX Working Group on\nPrecipitation, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, October 25-26, 1989.\nChelliah, M., \"Interannual and long-term variability indicated by OLR,\"\npresented in conjunction with the Climate Analysis Center Seminar Series,\nNMC, Camp Springs, MD, October 31, 1989.\nChen, W-Y., \"Preliminary results of DERF III experiments,\" presented at NMC\nSeminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, December 12, 1989.\nEbisuzaki, W., \"Vertical tilts of tropospheric waves,\" presented at the CAC\nSeminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, December 7, 1989.\nEpstein, E. S., \"Improving on perfect progs,\" presented at the CAC Seminar\nSeries, Camp Springs, MD, April 12, 1990.\nKousky, V. E., Lecture Series for a course on \"Climate variability and its\nimpact on the environment, presented at the University of Buenos Aires,\nBuenos Aires, Argentina, November 6-10, 1989.\nKousky, V. E., , \"ENSO update, presented before the TOGA Advisory Panel,\nWashington, D. C., September 18, 1990.\nLaver, J. D., \"Overview of CAC activities,\" presented at CAC and SIAS 90 (Summer\nInstitute in Atmospheric Science) Seminar, Camp Springs, MD, June 11, 1990.\nLehman, R. E., \"Modeling climate data sets by use of standard type III Gamma\nfunctions,\" presented at NMC Seminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, May 1, 1990.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Quasi-stationary circulations,\" Lecture for NMC Short Course on\n\"Dynamics of Climate Variability, Camp Springs, MD, October, 1989.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Six-ten day, thirty-day and ninety-day outlooks, presented at\na special Department of Energy Meeting on Fuel and Energy, Washington,\nD. C., December 23, 1989.\nLivezey, R. E., , \"Some recent activities in long-range forecasting research at\nCAC,\" seminars presented at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and\nResearch, Bracknell, UK, Aug. 8, 1990; at the Max Planck Institut fur\nMeteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, Aug. 14, 1990; and at the\nHydrometeorological Center of the USSR, Moscow, USSR, Aug. 28, 1990.\nMiller, A. J., \"Monitoring the stratosphere,\" presented at the CAC Seminar\nSeries, Camp Springs, MD, July 26, 1990.\nMiskus, D., \"PRESTO and other meteorological/climatological publications by the\nClimate Analysis Center,\" presented at the D.C. Chapter of the American\nMeteorological Society, Silver Spring, MD, November 16, 1989.\nMiskus, D., \"Drought in the West\", presented at the Congressional Office of\nTechnology and Assessment (OTA), Washington, D.C., May 24, 1990.\n83","Mo, K. C., \"1988 U. S. drought,\" presented at the University of Utah, Salt Lake\nCity, UT, October 9, 1989.\nMo, K. C., \"Atmospheric teleconnection dynamics during the 1986-1989 ENSO\ncycle, presented at the University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires,\nArgentina, November 9, 1989.\nMo, K. C., \"A GCM study on the 1988 U. S. drought,\" presented at the University\nof Maryland Seminar Series, College Park, MD, January 25, 1990.\nMo,\nK. C., \"Impact of SST anomalies on the skill of monthly forecasts,\"\npresented at the CAC Seminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, May 10, 1990.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Global SST/ air-sea interaction,\" presented at the NMC Train-\ning Course for Oceanography, Camp Springs, MD, January 23 and 26, 1990.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Ocean models and data assimilations,\" presented at the Ad Hoc\nPanel on TOGA XBT Strategy, Honolulu, HI, July 13, 1990.\nRodenhuis, D. R., \"Program development plans for Regional Climate Centers and\nthe scope and plans for climate prediction,\" presented at the NOAA Troika\nMeeting, NCDC, Asheville, NC, May 22-23, 1990.\nRodenhuis, D. R., \"Report of the ASOS Climate Working Group,\" presented to the\nNAS/NRC Panel on NWS Modernization, Washington, D.C., September 4, 1990.\nRodenhuis, D. R., \"Where do we (CAC) go from here?,\" presented at the CAC\nSeminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, September 13, 1990.\nRopelewski, C. F. \"Interannual climate variability, precipitation, and drought,\"\npresented at the NMC Training Course on Climate, Camp Springs, MD, October\n31 and November 2, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"The current state of the Southern Oscillation\" and \"The CAC\nENSO Prediction Project,\" presented at the TOGA Panel Meeting, Washington,\nD.C., December 12, 1989.\nRopelewski C. F., \"The CAC ENSO prediction project,\" presented at the NOAA\nTroika Meeting, NCDC, Asheville NC, May 22-23, 1990.\nSabol, P., \"Determination of climate anomalies,\" presented at a CAC and SIAS\n(Summer Institute in Atmospheric Science) 90 Seminar, Camp Springs, MD,\nJuly 18, 1990.\nTracton, M. S., \"Preliminary evaluation of CAC's DERF \"spinoff\" experiment:\nQuasi-operational extensions of the MRF to 15 days,\" presented at the CAC\nSeminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, May 17, 1990.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Frequency dependence in forecast skill,\" presented at the\nUniversity of Maryland, College Park, MD, October 5, 1989; and at the\nScripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, October 23, 1989.\nvan den Dool, H. M. \"Dynamic prediction of the next month's flow,\" presented at\nthe National Academy of Sciences, Moscow, USSR, November 17, 1989.\n84","van den Dool, H. M., \"Prospects for long-range prediction, presented at the NMC\nTraining Course on the Dynamics of Climate Variability, Camp Springs, MD,\nNovember 28 and 30, 1989.\nvan den Dool, H. M. , \"Research in climate change,\" presented at the Royal\nNetherlands Meteorological Society, de Bilt, Netherlands, April 17, 1990.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"DERF and seasonal prediction,\" presented at the NOAA\nTroika Meeting, NCDC, Asheville, NC, May 22, 1990.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Mirror images of atmospheric flow,\" presented at the CAC\nSeminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, July 12, 1990; and at the University of\nUtah, Salt Lake City, UT, Aug. 14, 1990.\nWagner, A. J., \"Medium and long-range forecasting: The practice at the Climate\nAnalysis Center,\" presented at the CAC Seminar Series, Camp Springs, MD,\nNovember 30, 1989.\n85","8.5.\nGRANT/CONTRACT PROGRAM\nCAC continued its support to universities and private industry to undertake\ndiagnostic studies and research that contribute directly to the improvement of\nCAC's operational monitoring and prediction programs. The results from each\nproject are reported in the literature and in final reports to CAC.\nEach\ninstitution, title of study and principal investigator is listed below.\nStart\nPrincipal\nDate\nInstitution\nTitle\nInvestigator\nFeb. 1990\nUCLA\nMultiple Flow Regimes,\nGhil\n(New)\nInterannual Variability, and\nExtended-Range Prediction\nMay 1990\nUniversity of\nCooperative Institute\nEllingson,\n(Renewal)\nMaryland\nfor Climate Studies\net al.\nJuly 1990\nUniversity of\nStatistical Analysis of\nTiao\n(New)\nChicago\nStratospheric Temperature\nData for Trend Analysis\n86","8.6 CAC-SPONSORED SEMINAR SERIES\nSpeaker:\nDr. John Roads\nScripps Institution of Oceanography\nLa Jolla, California\n\"Precipitation Forecasts with WMC's MRF Model\"\nTitle:\nNovember 15, 1989\nDate:\nProf. Randy Dole\nSpeaker:\nMassachusetts Institute of Technology\nCambridge, Massachusetts\n\"Variation in Synoptic Scale Eddy Activity During\nTitle:\nthe Life Cycles of Large-Scale Flow Anomalies\"\nNovember 16, 1989\nDate:\nW. Drosdowsky\nSpeaker:\nBureau of Meteorology\nMelbourne, Australia\n\"The Southern Oscillation in the Australia Region\"\nTitle:\nNovember 21, 1989\nDate:\nSpeaker:\nA. J. Wagner\nPrediction Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, Maryland\n\"Medium and Long-Range Forecasting - The Practice\nTitle:\nat the Climate Analysis Center\"\nNovember 30, 1989\nDate:\nWesley Ebisuzaki\nSpeaker:\nResearch and Data Systems, Corp.\nGreenbelt, Maryland\n\"Vertical Tilts of Tropospheric Waves\"\nTitle:\nDecember 7, 1989\nDate:\n87","Speaker:\nDr. Arun Kumar\nDept. of Meteorology/Florida State University\nTallahassee, Florida\nTitle:\n\"Initializing the Divergent Circulations Over\nthe Regions of Convection\"\nDate:\nDecember 18, 1989\nSpeaker:\nMing Cai\nCooperative Institute for Climate Studies/Univ. of MD\nCollege Park, Maryland\nTitle:\n\"Local Instability, Storm-Tracks and\nLow-Frequency Variability\"\nDate\nJanuary 25, 1990\nSpeaker:\nS. P. Leatherman\nCenter for Global Change/Univ. of MD\nCollege Park, Maryland\nTitle:\n\"Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impact\"\nDate:\nFebruary 8, 1990\nSpeaker:\nDr. Ian Barrie\nU.K. Meteorological Office\nBracknell, Berkshire, U.K.\nTitle:\n\"Agrometeorological Products in the United Kingdom\"\nDate:\nMarch 1, 1990\nSpeaker:\nDr. J. F. Anderson\nPrinceton University\nPrinceton, NJ\nTitle:\n\"Nearly Stationary Solution of the Barotropic\nVorticity Equation\"\nDate:\nMarch 29, 1990\n88","Dr. K. R. Saha (Former Director)\nSpeaker:\nIndian Institute of Meteorology\nPune, India\n\"Understanding Asia's Monsoon Climate System\"\nTitle:\nApril 6, 1990\nDate:\nDr. Edward S. Epstein\nSpeaker:\nPrediction Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, Maryland\n\"Improving on Perfect Progs!\"\nTitle:\nApril 12, 1990\nDate:\nProf. James L. Kinter\nSpeaker:\nCenter for Ocean, Land & Atmosphere/Univ. of MD\nCollege Park, Maryland\n\"Biophysical Control of Climate: Impact on\nTitle:\n30-Day Forecasts\"\nApril 26, 1990\nDate:\nDr. Kingtse Mo\nSpeaker:\nDiagnostics Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, Maryland\n\"Impact of SST Anomalies on the Skill\nTitle:\nof Monthly Forecasts\"\nMay 10, 1990\nDate:\nDr. Steven Tracton\nSpeaker:\nPrediction Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, Maryland\n\"Preliminary Evaluation of CAC's DERF \"Spinoff\"\nTitle:\nExperiment (Quasi-Operational Extensions of\nthe MRF to 15 days)'\nMay 17, 1990\nDate:\n89","Speaker:\nStanley A Changnon\nSteve Sonka\nIll. State Water Survey\nUniv. of Illinois\nChampaign, IL\nChampaign, IL\nTitle:\n\"Uses and Desires for Long-Term\nForecasts in Agribusiness\"\nDate:\nJune 21, 1990\nSpeaker:\nDr. Ake Johansson\nUniversity of Stockholm\nStockholm, Sweden\nTitle:\n\"Transient-Induced Climate Drift\"\nDate:\nJune 26, 1990\nSpeaker:\nDr. Huug van den Dool\nPrediction Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nTitle:\n\"Mirror Images of Atmospheric Flow\"\nDate:\nJuly 12, 1990\nSpeaker:\nDr. Mashida Kimoto\nUCLA\nLos Angeles, CA\nTitle:\n\"Diagnostics of the Medium-Range Forecast\nSkill Variations\"\n\"Multiple Flow Regimes in the\nNorthern Hemisphere Winters\"\nDate:\nJuly 20, 1990\nSpeaker:\nA. J. Miller\nAnal. & Info. Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, Md\nTitle:\n\"Monitoring the Stratosphere\"\nDate:\nJuly 26, 1990\n90","C. F. Ropelewski\nSpeaker:\nChief, Diagnotics Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, Md\n\"Why Predict ENSO?\"\nTitle:\nAugust 30, 1990\nDate:\nDr. D. R. Rodenhuis\nSpeaker:\nDirector, Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, Md\n\"Where Do We Go From Here? A CAC Perspective\nTitle:\non Climate Research and Services\"\nSeptember 13, 1990\nDate:\nDr. M. Kanamitsu\nSpeaker:\nDevelopment Division/NMC\nCamp Springs, Md\n\"The Use of the Operational Global Prediction\nTitle:\nModel for Budget Studies\"\nSeptember 20, 1990\nDate:\nDr. J. F. Anderson\nSpeaker:\nUCAR Post-Doctarate Program\nPrediction Branch/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\n\"Barotropic Instability of Zonally\nTitle:\nVarying Flows\"\nSeptember 27, 1990\nDate:\n91","8.7 VISITORS\nNAME\nAFFILIATION\nDATE\nProf. D. Yihui\nAcademy of Met. Sciences\nOct. 6, 1989\nState Met. Administration\nBeijing, P.R.C.\nProf. C. Longxun\nAcademy of Met. Sciences\nOct. 6, 1989\nState Met. Administration\nBeijing, P.R.C.\nProf. z. Yunde\nForeign Affairs Dept.\nOct. 6, 1989\nState Met. Administration\nBeijing, P.R.C.\nProf. H. Junhai\nNanjing Met. Institute\nOct. 6, 1989\nNanjing, P.R.C.\nProf. L. Huibang\nJhongshan University\nOct. 6, 1989\nGuangzhou, P.R.C.\nProf. H. Shisong\nNanjing University\nOct. 6, 1989\nNanjing, P.R.C.\nProf. L. Chongyin\nInstitute of Atmospheric\nOct. 6, 1989\nPhysics, CAS\nBeijing, P.R.C.\nProf. Z. Baozhen\nInstitute of Atmospheric\nOct. 6, 1989\nPhysics, CAS\nBeijing, P.R.C.\nProf. X. An\nBeijing University\nOct. 6, 1989\nBeijing, P.R.C.\nProf. B. Chenglan\nNational Research Center\nOct. 6, 1989\nfor Marine Environmental\nForecasting, SOA\nBeijing, P.R.C.\nJ-H. Feng\nClimate Center\nOct. 16, 1989\nMeteorological Bureau\nSep. 30, 1990\nShanghai, P.R.C.\nV. T. Radyukhin\nWorld Data Center-B\nOct. 26-30, 1989\nObninsk, USSR\nG. V. Menzhulin\nState Hydrological Inst.\nOct. 26-30, 1989\nLeningrad, USSR\nG. V. Gruza\nHydromet Center of the USSR\nOct. 26-30, 1989\nMoscow, USSR\n92","Nov. 8, 1989\nClimate Research Unit\nG. Farmer\nEast Anglia University\nNorwich, U.K.\nNov. 20-22, 1989\nBureau of Meteorology\nW. Drosdowsky\nResearch Center - Melbourne\nVictoria, Australia\nDec. 6, 1989\nNational Climate Center\nM. Coughlan\nVictoria, Australia\nCommissioner, Ethiopian Science Jan. 4, 1990\nA. Muhuneh\nand Technology Commission\nAdis Ababa, Ethiopia\nJan. 11, 1990\nNOAA/GFDL\nJ. Anderson\nPrinceton, NJ\nJan. 12, 1990\nNCAR\nR. Madden\nBoulder, CO\nJan. 23, 1990\nNASA\nS. Goodman\nHuntsville, AL\nJan. 23, 1990\nUniversity of Colorado\nP. Sardeshmukh\nBoulder, CO\nJan. 25, 1990\nDeputy Director,\nJ. Henderson\nNWS/Central Region\nKansas City, MO\nFeb. 1, 1990\nBritish Met. Office\nR. Ellis\nBracknell, Berkshire U.K.\nFeb. 2, 1990\nWMO/WCDP\nK. Davidson\nGeneva, Switzerland\nFeb. 5, 1990\nUniversity of Tokyo\nK. Kutsuwada\nTokyo, Japan\nFeb. 8, 1990\nDirector, Department of\nDr. A. W. Mahottali\nMeteorology\nSri Lanka\nFeb. 8, 1990\nDirector, Forecast Dept.\nDr. Tatehira\nJapan Meteor. Agency\nTokyo, Japan\nFeb. 9, 1990\nDeputy Secretary-General\nDr. D. N. Axford\nWMO\nGeneva, Switzerland\n93","Dr. J-Y. Chang\nDeputy Director-General\nFeb. 15, 1990\nDr. L-Y. Jen\nAssoc. Dir., Forecast Cntr\nDr. L-F. Chen\nChief, Forecast -Section\nDr. S-S. Chi\nDep. Dir., Satellite Cntr\nCentral Weather Bureau\nTaipai, Taiwan\nJ. NcNitt\nNWS/ASOS Program Office\nFeb. 28, 1990\nSilver Spring, MD\nDr. T. Kurino\nResearch & Development Bureau\nMar. 5, 1990\nScience & Technology Agency\nTokyo, Japan\nDr. Y. Kitamura\nMeteor. Research Institute\nMar. 12, 1990\nIbaraki, Japan\nV. Miller\nThe Weather Channel\nMar. 14, 1990\nAtlanta, GA\nR. Spencer\nNASA\nMar. 20, 1990\nHuntsville, AL\nI. Barrie\nBritish Met. Office\nMar. 21, 1990\nBracknell, Berkshire U.K.\nM. Roos\nCalifornia Department of Water\nMar. 21, 1990\nResources\nSacramento, CA\nJ. Purvis\nSoutheast Regional Climate\nMar. 24, 1990\nD. Smith\nCenter\nColumbia, SC\nDr. C-Y. Tsay\nDirector-General, Central\nApr. 4, 1990\nWeather Bureau\nTaipei, Taiwan\nJ-S. Hsieh\nDirector, Forecast Br.\nApr. 4, 1990\nCentral Weather Bureau\nTaipei, Taiwan\nDr. J-T. Huang\nDept. of Psychology\nApr. 4, 1990\nDr. J-J. Hung\nDept. of Civil Engr.\nDr. M-S. Sheu\nDept. of Architecture\nDr. Y-T. Yeh\nDept. of Geology\nDr. C-Y. Yen\nDept. of Civil Engr.\nNational Taiwan University\nTaipei, Taiwan\nM. Harrison\nBritish Met. Office\nMay 29, 1990\nBracknell, Berkshire U.K.\n94","June 18, 1990\nExecutive Director,\nN. Cutler\nCanadian Climate Centre\nDownsview, Canada\nJune 27, 1990\nInst. for Atmos. Physics\nDr. I. Mokhov\nUSSR Academy of Sciences\nMoscow, USSR\nJune 28, 1990\nGerman Weather Service\nB. Rudolf\nOffenbach, FRG\nH. Hauschild\nJuly 3, 1990\nNOAA/ERL\nJohn Bates\nBoulder, CO\nJuly 6, 1990\nDeputy Director,\nA. Kassar\nEconomic Meteorology\nNat'l. Inst. of Meteorology\nTunis, Tunisia\nJuly 19, 1990\nHydrometeorological\nProf. K. Kondratoveich\nTraining Institute\nLeningrad, USSR\nJuly 20, 1990\nDept. of Atmospheric Sciences\nM. Kimoto\nUCLA\nLos Angeles, CA\nJuly 25, 1990\nUnder Secretary of Commerce\nDr. J. A. Knauss\nfor Oceans and Atmosphere\nWashington, D.C.\nJuly 25, 1990\nAssistant Administrator,\nDr. N. Ostenso\nOffice of Research, NOAA\nRockville, MD\nAug. 30, 1990\nMeteorologist-In-Charge, NWS\nI. Matos\nL.M.M. International Airport\nSan Juan, Puerto Rico\nSept. 17, 1990\nDr. R. H. Reitenbach\nDirector\nAll-Union Research Inst.\nof Hydrometeor. Info.\nObninsk, USSR\nSept. 17, 1990\nHead, Aerology Dept.\nDr. A. Sterin\nAll-Union Research Inst.\nof Hydrometeor. Info.\nObninsk, USSR\n95"]}