{"Bibliographic":{"Title":"Climate Analysis Center FY 1989 Annual Report","Authors":"","Publication date":"1990","Publisher":""},"Administrative":{"Date created":"08-16-2023","Language":"English","Rights":"CC 0","Size":"0000207763"},"Pages":["4B\nNHC\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nFY 1989\nANNUAL REPORT\nU.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nQC\nNational Weather Service\n851\nNational Meteorological Center\n.C5\nC55","QC\n851\nC5\nC 55\nOF\nCOMMUNICATION\nAvenue\nSTATES\nOF\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nFY 1989\nANNUAL REPORT\nTechnical Editor: L.P. Mannello\nJanuary 1990\nU.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE\nNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\nNational Weather Service\nNational Meteorological Center\nNOAA Coral Gables Library Center\n1320 South Dixie Highway, Room 520\nCoral Gables, Florida 33146\n1711","TABLE OF CONTENTS\nPage\nSTAFF OF THE CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nii\niii\nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY\n1\n1.\nCLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS\nTropical Ocean/Atmosphere Interaction\n1\n1.1\n3\n1.2\nCirculation Diagnostics\n19\n2.\nCLIMATE MONITORING\n19\n2.1\nSurface Climate\n26\n2.2\nClouds and Precipitation\n29\n2.3\nAtmospheric Circulation\n33\n2.4\nOperational Products\n36\nSupporting Projects\n2.5\n37\nOCEAN CLIMATE ANALYSES\n3.\n37\n3.1 Ocean Monitoring and Diagnostics\n37\n3.2 Operational Products\n41\nSTRATOSPHERE AND TRACE GASES\n4.\n41\n4.1\nField Analysis\n42\n4.2 Ozone/Temperature Trends\n45\nOperational Products\n4.3\n51\n5. APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY\n51\n5.1\nSurface Data\n55\nAgricultural Applications\n5.2\n57\nClimate Impacts: Monitoring\n5.3\n60\n5.4\nOperational Products\n63\n5.5\nSupporting Projects\n69\n6.\nCLIMATE PREDICTION\n69\nEmpirical Studies\n6.1\n73\n6.2\nDynamical Methods\n79\n6.3\nEvaluation\n80\nOperational Products\n6.4\n85\n6.5\nSupporting Projects\n89\n7\nSUMMARIES\n89\n7.1\nTOGA/EPOCS Activities\n90\n7.2\nBilateral Activities\n91\nWorld Climate Programme Activities\n7.3\n92\n7.4\nNOAA Initiatives\n93\n7.5 Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshops\n95\n8. BIBLIOGRAPHY\n95\nJournal Articles\n8.1\n98\nArticles in Non-Refereed Literature\n8.2\n102\nPresentations at Formal Scientific Meetings\n8.3\n106\nSeminars and Briefings\n8.4\n109\n8.5\nGrant/Contract Program\n110\n8.6\nCAC-Sponsored Seminars\n116\n8.7\nVisitors\ni","STAFF OF THE CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nOFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR\nDirector, D. R. Rodenhuis\nSecretary, G. S. Lucas\nA. L. Leetmaa\nL. P. Mannello\nE. C. Michaelides\nPREDICTION BRANCH\nANALYSIS & INFORMATION BRANCH\nActing Chief, E. S. Epstein\nChief, J. D. Laver\nSecretary, V. R. Mershon\nSecretary, A. C. Kellar\n1\nA. Artusa\nN. L. Canfield\nA. G. Barnston\nR. H. Churchill\nW- Y. Chen\nJ. M. Dionne\n3\nW. Ebisuzaki\nJ. A. Fleming\nM. C. Gaidurgis\nG. G. Fulwood\nJ. Hoopingarner\nM. E. Gelman\nF. D. Hughes\nK. W. Johnson\nJ. Lanzante 2\nD.\nKann\nKatz 3\nR. E. Livezey\nS.\nT. N. Maisel\nM.\nKnezevic\nE. A. O'Lenic\nJ. D. Laver\nR. Schechter\nR. L. Lehman\nM. S. Tracton\nJ. D. Logan\n1\nH. M. van den Dool\nA. J. Miller\nA. J. Wagner\nD. Miskus\nR. M. Nagatani\nDIAGNOSTICS BRANCH\nV. L. Patterson\nChief, P. A. Arkin\nP. Sabol\nSecretary, K. M. Stevenson\nL. K. Thomas\nR. J. Tinker\nM. Chelliah 3\n3\nS- K. Yang\nD. B. Davidowicz\nM. S. Halpert\nAGRICULTURAL WEATHER SECTION\nJ. E. Janowiak\nChief, D. M. LeComte\n3\nM.\nJi\nSecretary, J. Hill\nJ. D. Kopman\nV. E. Kousky\nV. Bjerknes\nD. C. Marsico\n0. W. Byrd\nK. C. Mo\nT. R. Heddinghaus\nE. M. Rasmusson1\nR.\nStefanski\nR. W. Reynolds\nC. F. Ropelewski\nShinn\nR.\nK.\nWard\n3\nZimmerman\nJ.\n1. Research Associate, Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies (CICS)\n2. Visiting Scientist\n3. Contractor\nii","EXECUTIVE SUMMARY\nSeveral important climate events were monitored during the year by CAC.\nThe ENSO progressed through a high index phase, with SST anomalies reaching\n-3°C in the central tropical Pacific. The impact of the Spring/Summer drought\nof 1988 in North America was evaluated through the use of the CAC's Drought\nAdvisories that were produced throughout the summer season. Although the\ncirculation pattern eventually brought in Winter storms and Spring rains, a\nreturn to drought conditions occurred in the Spring 1989 throughout parts of\nthe Plains and Far West.\nAt the conclusion of 1988, the estimated global mean annual temperature\nappears to be the warmest on record (notwithstanding the ENSO cold phase)\nWhile global surface temperatures were unusually high, NH polar stratospheric\ntemperatures were reported to be at their lowest value in 25 years as measured\nduring the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition. In the Southern\nHemisphere, extremely low stratospheric temperatures did not occur this year;\nconsequently, very low ozone values were not observed.\nThese global climate events are monitored, diagnosed and published in\nregular weekly and monthly bulletins, and in a series of new, special publica-\ntions: the Drought Advisory, Climate and Weather Update, and the Precipitation\nSummary and Temperature Observations (PRESTO). A list of the routine,\noperational CAC products follow this summary. Improvements this year include\nthe development of a second Climate Diagnostic Bulletin for delayed data\nanalyses, an improved weekly SST product in the Tropical Pacific, and a major\nimprovement in the capacity of the dial-up facility which is part of the\nNWS/Family of Services. Also, the number of CAC published articles and formal\npresentations totaled more than 100. In addition, the number of presentations\nat the Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop was the second largest of the\nseries.\nIn climate prediction, a quasi-operational test of DERF skill (30-day\nforecast) is underway, while research on the basic data set continues. A new\nprediction method for the medium-range (6-10 days) has been developed, and a\nnew solar-QBO theory for seasonal influence has been implemented in practice.\nOn the inter-annual time scale, a new ENSO prediction method is being pre-\npared, and other prediction results from outside researchers are already being\npublished in the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (\"Forecast Forum\"). To support\nthese new products as well as to generate the operational forecasts, a new\nrestructuring and modernization of the forecast production process is being\nimplemented.\nThere is a new emphasis on using numerical products for climate predic-\ntion. The Tropical Pacific ocean model has fostered a new SST product, has\nhelped to focus a study of interface fluxes, and has prepared the way for the\nrunning of the global ocean model. For the first time the MRF model has been\nrun for an extended period (1 year) to study climate drift, and this has led\nto a numerical investigation of conditions during the Drought of 1988. All of\nthese studies have been conducted in cooperation with the NMC/Development\nDivision.\niii","From a programatic viewpoint, the CAC has participated in the develop-\nment and implementation of the first year of Climate and Global Change activi- -\nties (Ozone, Vegetation Index, CDAS/OMAS, Diagnostics, Tropical Precipitation\n(GPCP) and Data services). To meet this challenge, we have developed and\nimplemented 2 new external contracts for scientific services. During the\nyear, for the first time CAC activities were reviewed by NOAA management. A\nreport of the NOAA Review was written which resulted in a new vision for CAC\nin NOAA climate services. For this Review, accomplishments during the past\ndecade and plans for the future were presented, and a new Project Plan was\npublished. In addition to -the Climate and Global Change Initiative, 2 new FY\n91 Initiatives were written: DERF (in collaboration with NMC/Development\nDivision, NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory, and NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics\nLaboratory) and an enhancement of climate services at CAC. New MOU's were\nalso written with the Soil Conservation Service and with 6 Regional Climate\nCenters.\nIn collaboration with both the national and international science com-\nmunity, the CAC continues to contribute: by managing the SOLRAD radiation\nnetwork (ERL, NESDIS, NWS joint project), which successfully completed its\nfirst year of operation and sent data to the international Radiation Data\nCenter in Leningrad; by actively participating in the U.S./USSR Bilateral -\nAgreement (with NCDC and NCPO); by playing a major role at the WMO/Commission\nClimatology; by operating and managing the WMO Global Precipitation\nClimatology Project; by operating the TOGA/SST Data Center; by contributing to\nboth the TOGA and EPOCs programs; and by participating on the International\nOzone Commission.\nI would like to conclude this Summary with an acknowledgemet to the CAC\nstaff, who have achieved the above tasks despite the retirement of 6 important\npersonnel, including 2 Branch Chiefs. Thus, as we enter into the 1990s, this\nteam effort will be needed more than ever to improve CAC's contribution to the\nNOAA effort in climate services, climate monitoring, and climate prediction.\nDavid R. Rodenhuis\nDirector, CAC\niv","CAC PRODUCTS\nWEEKLY CLIMATE BULLETIN\nSPECIAL CLIMATE BULLETINS\nDROUGHT ADVISORIES\nCLIMATE DIAL-UP SERVICE\nOUTPUT FILE FOR FAX, TELETYPE, AFOS\nPUBLIC INFORMATION\nDAILY WEATHER MAPS\nWEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN\nSPECIAL AGRICULTURE BULLETINS\nWEEKLY AGRICULTURE ASSESSMENT BRIEFINGS\nGLOBAL HEIGHT ANALYSES (70 - 0.4 MB)\nGLOBAL OZONE ANALYSES (30 - 0.4 MB)\nCLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS BULLETIN\nMONTHLY GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC AND\nOCEANIC ANALYSES\nENSO ADVISORIES\nSEASONAL REVIEW ARTICLE (JOC)\nMEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK (6-10 DAY)\nMONTHLY OUTLOOK (SEMI-MONTHLY)\nSEASONAL OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)\nCLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS WORKSHOP (ANNUAL)\nV","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\nvi","1. CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS\n1.1\nTropical Ocean/Atmosphere Interaction\n1.1.1 Tropical Surface Heat and Momentum Fluxes (Reynolds)\nA one-year comparison (September 1987-August 1988) was completed be-\ntween the NMC surface winds (from the MRF model) and the Pacific Marine Envi-\nronmental Laboratory (PMEL) meteorology buoy winds. Results from this compar-\nison show that the agreement between the zonal wind components is better than\nthe agreement in the meridional component. For this comparison period, none\nof the PMEL buoy data were available on the GTS; however, efforts by a number\nof groups have enabled these data to be available for the NMC analysis in May\n1989. The availability of the PMEL wind data should significantly improve the\nquality of the assimilated surface wind analyses which lack low-level tropical\nPacific wind observations. The influence of the PMEL data on the MRF winds is\nbeing examined and will be reported as soon as possible.\nSurface heat and momentum fluxes are now being computed for the bound-\nary layer in the NMC-MRF model and a daily archive of these fields was started\n(December 1988) at CAC. Monthly averages were computed for the sensible and\nlatent heat fluxes, as well as for the net short wave and long wave radiation.\nThese values were then compared with the climatology of Oberhuber (Max Planck\nInstitut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg). The results show that the MRF fields\naccurately depict some important features; however, there are also biases. In\nparticular, each month shows a large anomalous positive net heat flux into the\nocean. Figure 1 shows an example of this for March 1989. The anomalous net\nheat flux would result in a larger global oceanic warming than is observed in\nthe changes in monthly SSTs. Much of the error can be attributed to\ninadequate cloud cover in the MRF, which results in large net incoming\nradiative fluxes. A joint effort is underway (with S. Esbensen Oregon State\nUniversity) to better evaluate the accuracy of the fields.\n1.1.2 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling (Kousky)\nA study was completed of the relationship between tropical sea level\npressure variations and oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. Basin-\nwide, in-phase sea level oscillations, (observed at various Pacific island\ntide gauge stations) were found to be negatively correlated with basin-wide\nsea level pressure variations associated with the atmospheric intraseasonal\n(30-60 day) oscillations. During certain phases of the intraseasonal oscilla-\ntions, basin-wide sea level pressure is either anomalously high or anomalously\nlow. During these times sea level is correspondingly below or above normal.\nThese results were prepared for a formal presentation at an upcoming Interna-\ntional Conference.\n1.1.3 High SOI Patterns (Halpert, Ropelewski)\nA study was initiated to examine temperature patterns associated with\nSouthern Oscillation (SO) extremes. Techniques to analyze precipitation pat-\nterns are being used with harmonic dial maps, based on 24-month composites.\n1","120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\n40N\n40N\nlieu\n-60\n30\n90\n60\n50\na\n0\n90\n20N\nso\n20N\n60\n00\n90\nso\n00\n60\n60\n90\n90\n0\n60\n90\n90\n300\n60\n30\n30\n060\nEQ\n2\nEQ\na\n30\n0\n60\n30\n90\n90\n30\n31\n60\na\n200\n&\n0\n30\n6Q\n90\n60\ngo\n20\n0\n60\na\n20S\n.\n20S\n$0\n60\n40S\n40S\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nNET HEAT FLUX DIFF.\nMAR 1989\nThe anomaly is\nThe NMC net heat flux anomaly for March 1989.\nFigure 1\ncomputed relative to the, climatology of Oberhuber (1988). .\nThe\ncontour interval is 30 w/m2. Negative contours are dashed.\n2","These maps were produced for both the high and low extrema of the so (Fig. 2).\nRegions were also identified that have potential SO-temperature relationships.\nTwenty-four month composites (high so) and a time series have been produced\nfor these regions, with seasons of potential relationships also noted. This\nproject has been extended to include the study of global temperature patterns\nassociated with the SO.\nThe definition and description of the high SOI precipitation patterns\nhave been completed and documented (Journal of Climate, Mar. 1989). An ear-\nlier paper on this topic was selected by the Executive Council of the World\nMeteorological Organization to be the 1990 recipient of the WMO Norbert\nGerbier Mumm Award.\n1.1.4 ENSO Prediction (Ropelewski, Barnston)\nRecent results in the scientific literature have indicated that experi-\nmental E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts have reached skill levels\ncomparable to the modest levels of operational long-range (30 and 90 day) out-\nlooks. Consequently, the Climate Analysis Center has embarked on a develop\nmental project to produce operational ENSO forecasts based on the simplest of\nthese methods--the canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Preliminary research\nhas suggested some skill in 1, 2, and 3 season forecasts of sea surface tem-\nperature in the central equatorial Pacific, with the global sea level pressure\nas the predictor (Fig. 3). This developmental work is being carried out in\nclose cooperation with actively involved ENSO prediction researchers in the\nacademic community.\nThe CAC Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (CDB) is the primary mechanism for\nproviding real-time climate monitoring information to the academic and re-\nsearch community. Authorization for publication of ENSO forecasts in the CDB\nwas obtained from NWS Headquarters. The Forecast Forum was initiated in the\nJune 1989 issue of the CDB, with ENSO predictions from Florida State\nUniversity and Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory.\nCirculation Diagnostics\n1.2\n1.2.1 Large Scale Tropical Circulations (Arkin, Mo, Chelliah)\nAn evaluation was made of the divergence and vorticity fields computed\nfrom the NMC and ECMWF analyses. In this task, the vorticity equation was\nused separately for the December-February and June-August seasons. The time\nperiod examined was from December 1986 - August 1989, which encompasses the\nmost recent warm and cold ENSO episodes. The principal findings are: 1) the\ndivergence field computed directly from the analyzed flow is qualitatively\naccurate, making interannual comparisons with these data feasible; 2) there\nare large differences in the divergence from the two analyses (Fig. 4a and\n4b); 3) the divergences that were reconstructed diagnostically from the vor-\nticity equation are also different from each other (Fig. 4c and 4d), suggest-\ning analysis problems in the rotational flow; and 4) relationships between the\ntropics and extratropics can be studied using the effective vorticity source\nwhich gives a clear indication of teleconnections.\n3","20W 00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n40W\n120W\n100W\n80W\n60W\n40W\n60N\n60N\n50N\n50N\n40N\n40N\n30N\n30N\n20N\n20N\nION\n1 ON\nEQ\nEQ\n10S\n10S\n20S\n20S\n30S\n30S\nJUL\n40S\n40S\n50S\n50S\nJAN\n60S\n60S\n20W 00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\n80W\n60W\n40W\n24 MONTH LOW SOI TEMPERATURE HARMONIC ANALYSIS\nFigure 2\nThe amplitudes and phases of ENSO composite ranked temperature\nplotted as vectors. The vectors are based on a 24-month harmonic\nfitted to ranked temperature composites for ENSO episodes.\nThe\nphases and relative magnitudes of these vectors are indicated by the\n\"vector clock. =\n4","1.0\n.9\n.8\n2,\n.7\n.6\n.5\n.4\n-3\n.3\n.2\n.1\n0\nSON\nOND\nNDJ\nJJA\nJAS\nASO\nMAM\nAMJ\nMJJ\nDJF\nJFM\nFMA\n12\n10\n11\n9\n6\n7\n8\n1\n2\n3\n4\n5\nCorrelations between observed and forecast sea surface temperature in\nFigure 3\nthe central equatorial Pacific for 1-season (solid), 2-season -\n(dashed) and 3-season (dot-dashed) leads. The predictions are made\nusing the CAC adaptation of the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA),\ndescribed in Barnett et al., Science, July 8, 1988. Vertical lines\nrepresent improvement of the CCA forecast over simple persistence.\n5","60E 80E 120E 150E 180E\n90E 120E 150E 180E\n1.00 FACTOR= 1.E.06.\n0\nQ\n(2.\n1.00 FACTOR 1.E+06\n20\n&\n3\nsec-1\nand\nDivergence at 200 mb for JFM 1987 derived from: a) ECMWF analyses, b)\n60E\n30E\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\na\n0\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n30E\n0\nd) solution of the Chi problem for NMC analyses. Units 1.0x10 6\n2.0\nOE\nNMC analyses, c) solution of the Chi problem for ECMWF analyses\nOE\n0\n0\n30W\n0\n30W\n1970\nNo\n2.0\n60W\n60W\n.\n0.00\nfor\n90W\n0.0\nto\n90W\nto\n2.0\n120W\n120W\n150W\n150W\n4d\n4C\n180W\n90N\n60N\n30N\nEQ\n180W\n30S\n60S\n90S\n30N\n60N\n30N\nEQ\n30S\n60S\nsos\n180W 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W OE 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180E\n90E 120E 150E 180E\n-2.0\n1.00 FACTOR- 1.E+06\n1.00 FACTOR 1.E+06\n99.0\n0.0\n&\n0\n2.0\n2.0\n60E\n2210\n0.0\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n30E\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n-2.)\nto\n0.0\n0\nmore\nOE\n0.0\n3CH\n2\n60W\n0.0\nFigure 4\n6\n90W\n2.0\n2.02.1\n2.0\n120W\n0.0\n20\n2.0\nP.O\n0.0\n-0.0\n2.\n150W\n0.0\n4a\n4b\n0.\n180W\n90N\n60N\n30N\nEQ\n30S\n60S\n90S\n90N\n60N\n30N\nEQ\n30S\n60S\n90S","1.2.2 Large-Scale Interactions (Ropelewski, Halpert)\nPrevious studies of temporal variability in the global tropics have\nsuggested that the Southern Oscillation can be viewed as having three major\ncomponents: the annual cycle, a biennial or quasi-biennial mode, and long-\nperiod variability. Efforts this past year have focused on improving the\ndescription and definition of the annual cycle and the biennial components of\nSO variability. A description of the annual cycle was published in an Atlas\nof Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Winds. It contains, in\naddition to traditional charts, a number of unique analyses (Fig. 5). The\ncorresponding digital data set provides the basis for further quantitative\nstudies. Biennial variability in the tropical Pacific was further examined\nthrough production of time-longitude cross sections of filtered and unfiltered\nsea surface temperature and winds (Fig. 6). These sections clearly highlight\nthe biennial component of the Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific.\n1.2.3 Climate Model Diagnostics (Mo)\nAn examination was made of the seasonal cycle and ENSO teleconnections\nfrom 15-year simulations (produced by G. Lau, NOAA/GFDL, who used the GFDL\nclimate model). Model diagnostics were performed and results of the ensemble\nmeans of GFDL simulations were compared with the CAC climatology (based on NMC\nanalyses from 1978-1988). Model-simulated winter (DJF) climate is remarkably\nclose to the observations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere; although,\nsimulations for other seasons were not as good. In general, the rotational\npart of the simulated flow is more realistic than the divergent part of the\nflow, and flow patterns are too zonal and weaker in the Southern Hemisphere.\nIn a related task, ensemble means of two sets of simulations were then\nused to derive composite model statistics for the 4 warm and the 4 cold ENSO\nepisodes during the 11-year period. Simulated teleconnections associated with\nENSO closely resemble those from the analyses. The anticyclonic dipole in the\ntropical Pacific, a weaker one in the Atlantic, as well as the eastward exten-\nsion of the subtropical jet in the Pacific during the warm episodes are well\nrepresented by the model (Fig. 7a). While the divergence at the 200 mb level\nis not realistic, it does show convection in the central Pacific during the\nwarm episodes (Fig. 7b). The model-simulated divergences are also more real-\nistic during the warm episodes. In addition, the 200 mb vorticity source does\nshow the PNA pattern in the NH during warm episodes.\nIn another study, the NMC-MRF model was used to simulate the analyzed\ncirculation features of June 1988 (Fig. 8a), one of the hottest and driest\nmonths on record in the United States. The model was also used to investigate\nthe relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and Northern\nHemispheric circulation patterns. Experiments were performed using 3 differ-\nent initial conditions (for May 21, 22, and 23, 1988), and fixed SST anomalies\nof the starting date. Both the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb ridge over the\nnorth-central U.S. and a northward shifting of the jet stream in the Pacific-\nNorth America area, were well simulated by the model (Fig. 8b). Also, the\nprecipitation patterns that were generated by the GCM runs indicate that the\nmodel reproduces the drought in the United States. All 3 experiments were\nrepeated using the same initial conditions, but with climatological SST.\nResults show that the circulation anomalies were located in the same places,\nbut with reduced amplitude.\n7","1\n1982\n2\n1..\n1\n3\n1\n1983\n1\n3\n,\n3\n1\n2\n1984\n2\n0\n1\n1\n1985\n)\n0\n0\n13\n1\n1986\n1.\n1\n1\n1987\na\n30E\n90E\n150E\n150W\n90W\n30W\n30E\nTime-longitude cross section of equatorial SST expressed as the\nFigure 5\ndifference from the annual mean for the years 1982-1987. The contour\ninterval is 1.0°C. The zero isotherm is emphasized. Negative values\nare dashed. Values greater than 1.0°C are shaded dark. Values less\nthan - -1.0°C are shaded light (after Ropelewski and Halpert, 1989).\n8","EQUATORIAL U COMPONENT - BIENNIAL\nEQUATORIAL U COMPONENT - MEAN\n0.2\n0,4\n1961\n1961\n1961\n-0,6\n1962\n1962\n1962\n-9,4\n0,0\n-0,2\n1963\n1963\n1963\n-5.a\n1964\n1964\n1964\n6.0\n-5.0\n2\n1965\n1965\n1965\n2,2\n-0.4\nh\nO.B\n1966\n1966\n1966\n0,2\n1967\n1967\n1967\n160E\n180\n160M\n140W 120W 100W BOW\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W 120W 100W 80M\nEquatorial time-longitude cross sections for the zonal wind\nFigure 6\ncomponent; left panel--total field, right panel - - biennial filtered\n(after Ropelewski et al., , 1988)\n9","YUN\nis\n0\n60N\n10\nto.\n20\nA30\n20\n10\n30N\n30\n10.\n20.\n20\n40\n47\n10\n0.\nEQ\n10.\n-10.\n30S\n10\nO.\na\n60S\n90S\n180W 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W 0E 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180E\nFigure 7a Differences in the winter 200 mb streamfunction between warm and cold\nyears from GFDL 15-year simulations. Units: 1.0x10 5 m ²/sec.\nW - C - DIVERGENCE * E + 06\nGF DL\n0\n90N\nEX\n=\n60N\n0\nX\n0\n0.\n30N\nV-\nI\n0\nd.\n(2.\nEQ\n0.\n$0\n0.\n2.\n0.\n0.\n30S\n0\nF,\na\n0.\n60S\n0.\n90S\n180W 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W 0E\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n1.00\nFigure 7b Same as Fig. 7a, but for the divergence field. Units 1.0x10 6 sec-1\n10","500 MB STANDING WAVES 88\n523 - 622\n90N\nFSO\n80\n60\n80\n60N\n120\nP20\n60\n120.\n26\n60\n<60\nso\n60%\n60\n01\n60\n/\n0\nof\n30N\n0.\no\n0.\nEQ\n0\n0.\n30S\n60\n80\n120\n20\n60S\n120\n60\n60\n60\n0.\n-60.\n0.\n60.\n90S\n180W 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W 0E 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180\nCONTOUR INTERVAL 30.00\nFigure 8a Monthly mean standing waves for the 500 mb heights for June 1988 from\nthe NMC analysis. Units 30 m.\nKM018-20 -\nSTANDING WAVES\n500\n90N\n'0\n60\n60N\n20.\n60\n60\n01\n50\n<60.\n120\nSO.\n60\n30N\n0.\nEQ\n0.\n0.\n30S\n0.\n-60.\n0.\n60.\n60S\n20\n60.\n60\n0.\n90S\n180W\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\n0E\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\nCONTOUR INTERVAL 30.00\nFigure 8b Same as figure 8a, but for ensemble mean of three simulated control\nexperiments.\n11","The next step included running 2 experiments with the 1988 SSTA, but with\ninitial conditions of May 22, 1987, and 1989. The circulation patterns gener-\nated by these runs are very different from those of 1988. A barotropic\nstability experiment was performed to obtain the normal modes associated with\nthe 300 mb June climatology. It indicates that a slow-growing mode is similar\nto the June climatology and the anomalies of 1988. These results suggest that\nthe persistence of the circulation anomalies in the Pacific-North American\nsector may be associated with initial conditions that were in a rather stable\nregime. While the sea surface temperature anomaly pattern of May 1988 may\nhave helped to strengthen the pattern, the circulation anomalies associated\nwith the 1988 drought were not caused by just sea surface temperature\nanomalies.\n1.2.4 Tropical Convection/Atmospheric Circulation (Kousky, Chelliah)\nAn investigation was initiated to study the recent extremes of the\nSouthern Oscillation and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies.\nEmphasis was on studying the variations in the intensities of the meridional\n(Hadley) and zonal (Walker) circulation cells in the tropics. Consistent with\nobserved changes in the intensity of the subtropical jet streams, the Hadley\ncirculation is enhanced (weakened) during periods of low (high) Southern\nOscillation Index. There are distinct longitudinal shifts in the main centers\nof rising motion within the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean basins (Fig. 9)\nwhich are consistent with observed changes in the pattern of outgoing longwave\nradiation (atmospheric convection) and with expected changes in the intensity\nof the Walker circulation due to sea surface temperature changes. These\nresults were prepared for formal presentations at two upcoming meetings.\nTime series of spatially-averaged OLR anomalies for different 40°\nlongitude by 20° latitude sectors along the equatorial belt were used to\nconstruct Northern Hemisphere winter composites of 850 mb and 200 mb winds and\nOLR. For the period considered (November 1974-October 1988), there are\na\ntotal of 66 winter months for which the spatially-averaged OLR anomaly index\nwas ordered from lowest to highest. Composites of the winds and OLR over the\ntropical strip from 48°S to 48° for the upper and lower 33 months were\ncomputed separately. Examination of composite difference maps corresponding\nto the various index-base regions revealed the different teleconnections\nassociated with either enhanced or suppressed convective activity in the\nequatorial tropics.\nThe above results prompted an examination of episodic tropical\nconvection and the associated global circulation changes during 1974-1989.\nPrincipal component analysis (PCA) was performed on monthly mean OLR anomalies\n(June 1974-March 1989, except 1978) over the global tropics (30°N-30°S) on a\n10°\nlongitude by 5° latitude grid. The monthly OLR anomalies were then\ncomputed with respect to the newly created 10-year (1979-1988) base period.\nFigures 10 and 11 show the first four unrotated eigenmodes and the\ncorresponding time series, which explained 8.5%, 5.9%, 5.3% and 4.3%\nrespectively of the variance in the data. Examination of figures 10 and 11\nindicate that modes 1 and 2 are global in nature and could be identified with\nphenomena related to the ENSO. However, physical interpretation of\neigenpatterns 3 and 4 is rather difficult. To alleviate this, a varimax\nrotation of the the first 4 modes was carried out.\n12","00\n0.0\n60E 90E I 20E 150E 180 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W\n0\n0\n30\n20.0\n40\n20\n20\n5\nPacific SSTs), and b) December 1988-February 1989 (a period of high\nSOI and anomal ously cold central Pacific SSTs). Contour interval is\nmb s-1) averaged over the latitude band 5°N-5°S for a) December 1986-\nFebruary 1987 (a period of low SOI and anomalously warm central\n0.0\nLongitude vs pressure cross section of vertical motion (omega X 10\n20 X 10-3 mb s-1. Values less than -20 X 10-5 mb su are shaded.\n20.0\nVERTICAL MOTION DJF8889\nFILL\n0 29 0\n30E\nb\nV\n00\n1000\n100\n200\n250\n300\n500\n700\n850\n00\n20.\n00 30E 60E 90E 1 20E 150E 180 150W 120W 90W SOW 30W\nVERTICAL MOTION DJF8687\n4\nFigure 9\n0.0\n0.\n-20\n20. 0\n20.0\n0.20.10\n100\n0\n0\n20.0\na\n1000\n100\n200\n250\n300\n500\n700\n850","ANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - UNROTATED MODE\n1\n30N\ny\n0.27\n20N\n0.2\n10N\n0.\nEQ\n,0,8\n0.6\n10S\n0.2\n20S\n0.4.\n30S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - UNROTATED MODE\n2\n30N\n0.0\n0.4\n20N\n0.2\n10N\n0.4 - 8.2\n0.4\nEQ\n0.\n10S\n0.2\n20S\n30S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - UNROTATED MODE\n3\n30N\nand\n0.2\n20N\n0.2\n10N\nEQ\n10S\n0.2\n0.2\n20S\n0.\nQ.4\n0.4\n30S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - UNROTATED MODE\n4\n30N\n-024\n20N\n0.2\n10N\n0.2\nEQ\n0.2\n10S\n0.4\n0\n20S\n0.2\n0.0\n10.2\n0.0\n30S\nD\nto\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nFigure 10 The spatial loading patterns of the first four eigenmodes from an\nunrotated principal component analysis (PCA) of monthly OLR\nanomalies from June 1974-March 1989.\n14","ANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES -- UNROTATED MODE NUMBER\nI\n200\n100\n0\n-100\n-200\n1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989\nYEAR\nANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES -- UNROTATED MODE NUMBER 2\n200\n100\nmonth\n0\n-100\n-200\n1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989\nYEAR\nANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES -- UNROTATED MODE NUMBER 3\n200\n100\n0\n100\n-200\n1974\n1975\n1976\n1977\n1978\n1979\n1980\n1981\n1982\n1983\n1984\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\nYEAR\nANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES -- UNROTATED MODE NUMBER 4\n200\n100\nWWW\nC\n100\n-200\n............\n1974\n1975\n1976\n1977\n1978\n1979\n1980\n1981\n1982\n1983\n1984\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\nYEAR\nFigure 11 The time series associated with the four eigenmodes described in\nfigure 10.\n15","Figures 12 and 13 are identical to figures 10 and 11, except they\ndepict the rotated modes. The rotation, while retaining the global nature of\nmodes 1 and 2, has further clarified the features associated with ENSO. It is\nbelieved that eigenmode 1 is dominated by the extraordinary 1982/83 ENSO\nevent, as indicated by maximum loadings near 150° and a large peak in the\ntime series. On the other hand, the spatial pattern of mode 2 (see Fig. 12)\nappears to represent the characteristics of convection anomalies associated\nwith a typical or canonical ENSO event. The spatial pattern associated with\nrotated eigenmode 3 (Fig. 12) has maximum loadings over Africa, with loadings\nof opposite sign over the equatorial Indian Ocean, and lower amplitudes\nelsewhere. The time series (Fig. 13) associated with this third mode suggests\na systematic difference between the two decades (1970s versus 1980s). This\nwas also noted by other researchers who think this difference signifies a\ntrend towards increased tropical convection in the 1980s. However, many of\nthe changes in the time series appear to be associated with changes in\nsatellites and their local observation times. In particular, note that very\nabrupt changes in the unsmoothed monthly time series accompany each satellite\nchange. These results and further comparison with other works are the main\nsubject of a paper that describes climate variability and trends indicated by\nOLR's.\n1.2.5 Oscillatory Modes Flow Regimes (Mo)\nAn assessment was made of the statistical significance of the transi-\ntion matrix among flow regimes in a system's phase space, using Monte Carlo\nsimulation. This method can discriminate between regimes with large elements\nand those with small elements. It can also determine the most significant\ntransitions as well as the most unlikely ones with a prescribed level of sta-\ntistical significance. The results of this test agree with previously used\nempirical formula when the number of maps in each regime is sufficiently large\nand regimes contain a comparable number of maps.\nIn a related study, multi-channel singular spectrum analysis has been\nimplemented to examine the interannual and intraseasonal variability of low\nfrequency circulation anomalies. In the intraseasonal band, oscillations were\nfound with frequencies of 36, 25 and 18 days in the Northern Hemisphere. It\nwas also found that certain modes appear together in the multi-channel analy-\nsis, and spatial patterns (related to these oscillations) can be obtained\nusing either composite or cluster analysis. These results suggest that in\naddition to tropical convection, the nonlinear internal dynamics of the system\nare an important factor in sustaining these modes. In the interannual band,\nmodes were found that corresponded to the QBO, ENSO, and oscillations of the\nannual cycle. Transition matrixes are being used to study the oscillatory\npaths and interaction between various modes.\n16","ANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - ROTATED MODE 1 - MAX. MODES ROTATED = 4\n30N\n0.2\n20N\n0\n2\n10N\n0.0\n0.0\n0\nEQ\n0.2\nQ.8\n10S\n0.6\n0.4\n0.4\n20S\n0.2\n30S\n0.2\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - ROTATED MODE 2 - MAX. MODES ROTATED = 4\n30N\n0.2\n0.2\n20N\n10N\n0.4\nEQ\n02\n0.6\n10S\n20S\n0\n0.2\n30S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - ROTATED MODE 3 - MAX. MODES ROTATED\n= 4\n30N\n20N\n0.0\n(0.2\nto\n10N\n0.0\nEQ\n0.2\n0.0 0.0\n10S\n0.2\n0.4\n0\n0.2\n20S\n3.-2\nOT\nI.D\n30S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nANALYSIS C - SPATIAL PATTERN - ROTATED MODE 4 - MAX. MODES ROTATED = 4\n30N\n0.2\n0\n20N\n0\n0.0\n0.2\n10N\n0.2\n0.0\nEQ\n0.2\n10\n0.2\n10S\n0.4\n20S\n30S\nOE\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180E\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\nOE\nCONTOUR INTERVAL\n0.10\nFigure 12 The spatial loading patterns of the leading four eigenmodes from\nrotated principal component analysis (PCA) of monthly OLR anomalies\nfrom June 1974-March 1989.\n17\n2","ANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES\nROTATED MODE NUMBER 1\n--\n200\n100\nmyham\n0\n-100\n-200\n1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988\n1989\nYEAR\nANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES -- ROTATED MODE NUMBER 2\n200\n100\nany\nwhat\nwhy\n0\n-100\n-200\n1974\n1975\n1976\n1977\n1978\n1979\n1980\n1981\n1982\n1983\n1984\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\nYEAR\nANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES\nROTATED MODE NUMBER 3\n--\n200\n100\n1mmm\nMr\nMMM\n0\nTIROS\nNORA\nNOAA 2,3,4,5\nNOAP\nAA 7\nNOAA 9\n6\nNo\n24\nN\n11\n-100\n4\n9:00 AM\nI\n3:30cM\n2:30\nAM\n7:30\nM\n2:30 AM\n2:30119\n9:00P.M\n3:30PM\n7:30\nPM\nPM\n2:30\n2: 30PM\n2: 30P M\n-200\n1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989\nYEAR\nANALYSIS C - TIME SERIES\nROTATED MODE NUMBER 4\n--\n200\nICO\nmirm\n0\n-100\n-200\n1974\n1975\n1976\n1977\n1978\n1979\n1980\n1981\n1982\n1963\n1984\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\n1989\nYEAR\nFigure 13 The time series associated with the four eigenmodes described in\nfigure 12.\n18","2. CLIMATE MONITORING\n2.1\nSurface Climate\n2.1.1 Surface Climate Anomalies (Halpert)\nHistorical temperature and precipitation data for South and Central\nAmerica, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific have been added to\nthe CAMS data files. Historical precipitation data for Africa have also been\nacquired and examined. This data improves CAC's ability to monitor current\nclimate conditions and provides a better data base for climate diagnostic\nstudies. In addition, the procedure for adding CLIMAT data to the CAMS files\nwas changed to ensure better quality control and timeliness. CLIMAT data will\nnow be added from CAC's Climate Assessment Data Base every month.\n2.1.2 Climate Calendar (Ropelewski, Halpert)\nThe goals of this project are to assemble CAC's collective climate\nknowledge and experience and to provide a resource from which all of the CAC\ncan use. The material in the Climate Calendar consists, in part, of detailed\ndescriptions of the the annual cycle. It also contains insights into the\ntypical evolution of large-scale climate modes, such as E1 Niño/Southern Os-\ncillation, and monsoons.\nAn analysis of the annual cycle over the global ocean tropics was com-\npleted and documented in a Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Winds\nAtlas. Based on analyses of surface fields from the Comprehensive Ocean At-\nmosphere Data Set (1950 - 1987 period), the Atlas serves as a valuable re-\nsource for CAC research projects.\n2.1.3 Vegetation Index (Halpert, Arkin, Ropelewski)\nA vegetation index product was defined that consists of the mean, me-\ndian, standard deviation and seven class histogram. The index for any pixel\nis computed by converting the digital counts for the AVHRR visible and near-\ninfrared channels into radiances, and then computing a normalized difference\nbetween the channels. Each channel radiance was tested to eliminate pixels\nwhich have either negative radiances, or negative vegetation index values. A\nthermal infrared channel was used to eliminate clouds through the deletion of\npixels with temperature values less than -5.0°C. Data were then combined into\n1° grid squares and archived between 55°S and 75°N.\nCAC's vegetation index has been archived from April 1985-December 1988,\nwith real-time data processing started in July 1989. From this archive, maps\nof the United States, India, and Africa were produced to examine the spatial\nand temporal variability of the index. Various filtering schemes were evalu-\nated and it was decided to use a three week maximum filter to display the\nproduct. Difference maps were produced that compared various regions for\ndifferent years using the maximum filter (Fig. 14). The results show good\nqualitative agreement with precipitation for those areas. Time series for the\nfour years of data were produced for different regions in the United States.\n19","2 4 6 180W\n642\n02\n1000 0\n80W\n00\n22\n0-2\n2\n4\n50N\n0\n50N\n2\n4\n6\n4\n2\n8\n-10\n40N\n12\n40N\n2\n-2--2\n2\n2\n30N\n30N\n-2\nL2\n0\n-4\n0\n4\n-2\n-2\n4\n-2\n0\n2\n-0\n,-2\nDO\n2\n20N\n{\n4\n120W\n100W\n2\n20N\n-2\n80W\n4\nNDVI DIFFERENCE 1988-1987 (LATE JULY )\n14 Vegetation index difference (x 100) between July 1988 and July 1987.\nFigure\nThe data were filtered using a 3 week median filter.\n20","2.1.4 Snow/Ice Monitoring (Ropelewski)\nTrends on global sea-ice were examined as part of a report for the\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Estimates of the annual cycle of\nsea-ice extent were updated, based on operational analyses. A time series of\nglobal sea-ice extent indicates no significant recent trends (Fig. 15).\n2.1.5 Climate Trends (Ropelewski, Halpert)\nThe problem of detecting global temperature trends is one which has\ncaptured the imagination of both the scientific community and the general\npublic. Estimates of global land temperature for recent years are almost\nexclusively based on data readily exchanged over the Global Telecommunication\nSystem. These data were utilized to examine the impact of the Southern Oscil-\nlation on estimates of global temperature based on surface meteorological\ndata. Preliminary results of these investigations (reported in a draft sum-\nmary to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicate that the\nSouthern Oscillation may account for as much as 0.5°C in interannual variabil-\nity. Preliminary work also indicates that the character of the \"global\" tem-\nperature time series is very sensitive to the period over which the data are\naveraged. Furthermore, the custom of displaying time series of annual (calen-\ndar year) temperatures can be misleading in that it can mask, or alias, varia-\nbility associated with the Southern Oscillation (Fig. 16).\n2.1.6 Sea Surface Temperature Data Center (Reynolds)\nA new global SST analysis is now being developed using optimum inter-\npolation (OI), to depict the global SST field with finer temporal and spatial\nresolution. This task will expand the method of Leetmaa (CAC), who developed\na regional higher resolution (OI) SST analysis. The regional analysis uses a\nfirst guess generated by a tropical ocean model. The OI scheme must use high\nquality-controlled SST data, because the higher resolution results in fewer\nobservations and because the OI does not automatically eliminate satellite\nbiases. Both the in situ and satellite archives have been improved to facili-\ntate the required quality control. Once the global OI technique has been\ndeveloped, the OI analysis will be compared with the blended analysis to moni-\ntor the accuracy and the expected improvement of the new method.\nThe blended TOGA-SST analysis was modified in January 1989 to use the\nsea-ice archive developed by K. Campana (Development Division, NMC). Before\nthe sea-ice cover was available, the external boundary conditions (especially\nin the Southern Hemisphere) were often determined by the satellite analysis.\nThe use of satellite data in this case permits possible satellite biases to\nenter the analysis locally. The availability of the sea-ice cover allows the\nexternal boundary conditions to be independent of satellite SST information.\nAn example of the mean blended field using sea ice data is shown in figure 17.\nThe -1°C isotherm closely parallels the ice covered regions (indicated by\nstippling). Figure 18 shows the difference between the blend with and without\nthe ice information. As expected, the analysis with ice has values lower than\nthe analysis without ice at high latitudes. Significant differences (absolute\nSSTs greater than 0.5°C) are confined to regions north of 60 N and south of\n50°S.\n21","Annual cycle of sea ice extent\n30\n5%\n25\nTOTAL\n4%\n20\nARCTIC\n3%\n15\n2%\n10\n1%\n5\nANTARCTIC\n00\nDEC\nJUN\"\nJUL\nAUG\nSEP\nOCT\nNOV\nJAN\nFEB\nMAR\nAPR\nMAY\nMONTHS\nSTANDARDIZED ICE AREA\n4\n3\n2\nI\n0\n-1\n-2\n-3\n1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990\n-4\nTop: Annual cycle of sea ice extent based on operational analysis\n(after Ropelewski, 1989) Bottom: Twelve-month running of\nFigure 15\nstandardized global sea ice extent anomaly.\n22","0.50\nC\n0.25\n0.0\nc\nc\n-0.25\n-0.50\n1951\n1961\n1971\n1981\n1991\n0.50\n0.25\n0.0\nC\n-0.25\nc\n-0.50\n1951\n1961\n1971\n1981\n1991\nFigure 16 Time series of \"global\" surface temperature anomalies based on\nmeteorological land surface data for the 1951 to 1988 period. E1\nNiño/Southern Oscillation years are indicated by dark bands. \"Cold,\nor high Southern Oscillation Index years are indicated by the letter\n\"c\" either above or below the appropriate bars. Top: Twelve month\nanomalies based on the calendar year. Bottom: Twelve month anomalies\nbased on a \"Southern Oscillation\" year - - October through September.\n23","80N\n60N\n40N\n20N\n620S\n40S\n60S\n80S\nEQ\n29\n28\n4\n2\n20\n7\n4\n25 15\n80E\n80E\n88\n29\n27\n60E\n60E\nFigure 17 The blended mean SST field using sea ice cover for March 1989. The\ncontour interval is 1°C; positive contours are solid lines; negative\ncontours are dashed. The 0°C contour is a heavy solid line. Heavier\nlines are also used for contours which are even multiples of five.\n22\n1919\n28\n0\n29\n26\n2n\n40E\n23\n40E\n29\n24325\n76\n28\nS24 3\n26\n8\n1822\n17\n20E\n20E\n28\n26\n3\nBLEND + BUOYS SST: ICE MAR 1989 (CAC ANALYSIS) (ICE STIPPLED)\nDr\n10\n38\n0\n0\n0\nTO\n28\nThe ice covered regions are indicated by stippling.\n17\n5\n9\nB\n20W\n\"1\n20W\n40W\n40W\n28\n28\n27\n26\n27\n25\n60W\n60W\n18\n23\n21\n18\n6\n23\n4\n80W\n26\n80W\n25\na\n0\n19th\n100W\n100W\n23\n25\n20\n7\nRV\n120W\n3\n120W\n#6\n26\n140W\n140W\n29\n160W\n160W\nD\n180\n180\n3\n160E\n160E\n28\n26\n/ -\n192\n140E\n140E\n29\n2921\n12.5\n120E\n$\n21\n16\n29\n26\n62.99\n227\n29\n28\n2.\n20\n10\n2\n23\n80N\n60N\n40N\n20N\n60S\n80S\nEQ\n20\n40\n24","80N\n60N\n40N\n20N\n20S\n40S\n60S\n80S\nEQ\n0.6\noill\n80E\n80E\n8\n8\nFigure 18 The difference between the blended SST analysis with and without sea\nice (ice-no ice) for March 1989. The contour interval is 1°C, except\nthere is an extra contour at -0.5°C. Positive contours are solid\nThe 0°C contour is a heavy\nsolid line. Shading indicates regions where the difference is less\n60E\n60E\n40E\n40E\n20E\n20E\nANALYSIS (WITH - WITHOUT) ICE\n&\n0\n0\nan\n20W\n20W\n&\n40W\n40W\nlines; negative contours are dashed.\n60W\n60W\n80W\n80W\nMAR 1989\n100W\n100W\n8\n120W\n120W\n&\n140W\n140W\nBLEND W. BUOYS\n-0.5\nthan -1°C.\n160W\n160W\n180\n180\n160E\n160E\n140E\n140E\n120E\n120\n-0\n80N\n60N\n40N\n20N\n20S\n40S\n60S\n80S\nEQ\n25","2.2\nClouds and Precipitation\nGlobal Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; Janowiak, Davidowicz)\n2.2.1\n2.2.1.1 Geostationary Satellite Data Processing Center\nThe archival of histograms of equivalent blackbody temperature data\nfrom the GOES-EAST and GOES-WEST satellites continued routinely, until the\nfailure of GOES-WEST on January 21, 1989. The failure of GOES-WEST and the\nsubsequent westward repositioning of GOES-EAST has resulted in data gaps to\nthe east and west of the current operational GOES satellite. However, these\ndata gaps could be eliminated if the METEOSAT satellite is repositioned to\n50°W and if histograms of equivalent blackbody temperature from that satellite\nbecome available.\n2.2.1.2 Geostationary Satellite Precipitation Data Center (Janowiak)\nA 3-year climatology (1986-88) of monthly rainfall estimates has been\nassembled based on both geostationary satellite data and OLR flux data from\nthe NOAA 9 and 11 polar-orbiting satellites. Maps of anomalous seasonal rain-\nfall from this short record clearly depict the large shifts in tropical con-\nvection associated with the evolution of warm to cold conditions during these\nyears in the equatorial central Pacific. A time-longitude plot (Fig. 19) of\nthe near-equatorial monthly rainfall shows both the eastward progression of\npositive rainfall anomalies during the warm episode (1986-87) and the westward\nprogression of negative rainfall anomalies during the cold episode (1988-89).\nIn another study, satellite-derived rainfall estimates were compared\nwith precipitation forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather\nForecasts (ECMWF) model in the tropics (November 1987-April 1988) Overall,\nthe ECMWF model forecasts of tropical rainfall were 27% larger than the satel-\nlite-derived estimates for the corresponding period. However, when comparing\nthe model forecasts against the estimates over land and ocean separately, the\nsatellite estimates were 15% greater than the ECMWF forecasts over land, but\nwere 35% less than the model forecasts over water. The latitudinal profile of\nthe comparison of the ECMWF model rainfall forecasts and the satellite-derived\nrainfall estimates is shown in figure 20.\nA procedure was developed to estimate tropical rainfall amount for 5-\nday (pentad) periods, based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the NOAA\npolar-orbiting satellites. The method was developed from a linear regression\nrelationship between mean OLR flux and rainfall estimates from geostationary\nsatellite data during July 1987-June 1988. Before a regression was performed\non these data, a threshold of OLR was determined, above which, rainfall was\nassumed not to occur. This threshold was implemented to obtain the best pos-\nsible relationship between OLR and rainfall. Estimates, based on this method,\nwill now be used when histograms of equivalent blackbody temperature from the\ngeostationary and polar-orbiting satellites are unavailable.\n26","1986\n1987\n1988\nof\n8\n00\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\n00\nEQUATORIAL PRECIP. ANOMALY (MM/DAY) (5N - 5S)\n19 Time-Tongitude plot of equatorial (5°N - 5°S) rainfall anomalies are\nFigure\nrespect to the base period 1986-88. Units are mm. Anomalies\nderived by subtracting the 3-year 1986-88 mean for a given month from\neach corresponding monthly mean. Positive anomalies (wetter than\n\"normal\") are solid lines; negative anomalies are dashed lines.\n27","(8762-8824)\nECMWF/GPI * 100%\n28.75\n26.25\n23.75\n21.25\n18.75\n16.25\n13.75\n11.25\n8.75\n6.25\n3.75\n1.25\n-1.25\n-3.75\n-6.25\nLAND ONLY\n-8.75\n-11.25\nOCEAN ONLY\n-13.75\n-16.25\n-18.75\n-21.25\n-23.75\n-26.25\n-28.75\n180\n200\n220\n240\n260\n60\n80\n100\n120\n140\n160\nGPI > ECMWF\nECMWF > GPI\nFigure 20 Latitudinal profile of the ratio (*100) of the ECMWF rainfall\nforecasts and satellite - derived rainfall estimates, averaged over the\nperiod November 2, 1987-April 30, 1988. The solid curve applies to\nocean areas only; the dashed curve applies to land areas only.\n28","2.2.2 Tropical Rainfall (Arkin)\nPrecipitation estimates were made for the December-February (DJF) and\nJune-August (JJA) seasons during the 1986-1989 period. This task is under the\nauspices of the Geostationary Satellite Precipitation Data Center. The values\nclearly show the large changes in rainfall in the tropical Pacific associated\nwith the change from E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm episode to cold\nepisode conditions (Figs. 21 and 22). The large changes in observed tropical\nsea surface temperature were accompanied by large changes in tropical convec-\ntive activity. DJF precipitation (Fig. 21) in the central tropical Pacific\ndecreased from greater than 22 mm/day to less than 2 mm/day at the equator and\nthe dateline. Examination of other areas shows that the DJF precipitation is\na maximum over Africa and South America from about 5-20°S, as well as over a\nregion stretching from about 80°E-180° and from 0°-15°S.\nIn the JJA seasons (Fig. 22), the decrease in equatorial Pacific pre-\ncipitation from 1987 to 1988 is again clear. The interannual change in the\nstrength of Indian monsoon precipitation, with light amounts in western and\nnorthwestern India in 1987 and much heavier amounts in 1988, can also be seen.\nThe other principal centers of tropical convection, over Central America and\nAfrica, are well defined, although the interannual changes are less impressive\nthere. In both seasons, the estimates in the summer hemisphere seem consist-\nent with expectations of the data limits at 40° latitude. However, for the\nwinter hemisphere, large amounts are estimated over the Tibetian Plateau (Fig.\n21) and the southern oceans (Fig. 22). This seems unlikely, and the estimates\nare probably erroneous due to the mis-identification of a cold surface or low\ncloud. It is recommended that these indirect estimates be used in a latitude\nband from 40° in the summer hemisphere to 20° in the winter hemisphere.\nWhen the 3-year period from March 1986-February 1989 is used as a base\nperiod for the computation of anomalies (Fig. 23), one sees that the anomalies\nin the central and western Pacific during DJF 1986-87 and DJF 1988-89 exceed\nthe others in the tropics by nearly an order of magnitude. This clearly il-\nlustrates the dominance of ENSO on interannual variability in precipitation.\n2.2.3 Cloudiness (Arkin)\nNo activity on this project due to loss of personnel.\n2.3\nAtmospheric Circulation\n2.3.1 Tropospheric Anomalies (Janowiak, Kousky)\nTemperature changes, associated with Southern Oscillation extremes,\nwere investigated for the tropical mid-troposphere (500 mb). Substantial de-\npartures from normal (°C or more with the same sign as the SST anomalies)\ndeveloped during the mature stages of either warm (low SOI) or cold (high SOI)\nepisodes. Although the temperature variations are largest in the tropical\nPacific, SST anomalies of the same sign are observed in most of the tropics.\nThese changes in the thermal distribution are consistent with the observed\nchanges in intensity of the Hadley and Walker circulations, and of the sub-\ntropical jet streams. These results were prepared for formal presentations at\ntwo upcoming conferences.\n29","00\n20E\n40E\n160E\n180\n160W\n40W 20W\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n140W\n120W\n100W\n60K\n80W\nI\nL/\nESY\n50N\n6 6\n6\n10\n14\n10.\n6\n10\n5240\n10\n14.\n2\n665\npoin\n2014\n14\n40N\n0\n30N\n6\n30N\na\n2\n20N\n20N\n10N\nION\n2\nEO\nEQ\n&\n:05\n-2\n10S\n2\n20S\n20S\n2\n6\n30S\n10\n30S\n0\n6\n200\n40S\n40S\n2\n2\n2\n2\n2\n2\n2\nDJF 1986-87\n50S\n50S\nT\n12\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\nUSA\n50N\n50N\n18\n14.10\n10\n0\n10\nIS\n40N\n40N\n30N\n30N\n2\n20N\n20N\n10N\n10N\n0\n3\n2\nEQ\nEQ\nTO\n2\n10S\n10\n10S\nOF\n2\n20S\n20S\n6\n30S\n30S\n2\n405\n?\n40S\n85\n3\nDJF 1987-88\n2\n2\n2\n2\n2\n505\nSOS\nT\n1.\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\nBOE\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\nUSB\n50N\n50N\n10\n14 18\n110\n6\n10\n10\n106\n40N\n40N\n2\n30N\n30N\n20N\n20N\n8\nION\nION\n2\n0\nEO\nEQ\n(II)\n10S\n10S\n2\n(2\n20S\n20S\n6\n305\n30S\n6\n40S\n26\n40S\nDJF 1988-89\n2\n6\n2\n50S\n50S\nI\nT\n1.\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W 20W\nFigure 21\nEstimated rainfall for December - February 1986-87 (top), 1987-88\n(middle) and 1988-89 (bottom) Contour interval is 4 mm/day; values\ngreater than 10/14 mm/day have light/heavy stippling.\n30","160W\n140W\n120W\n40W\n20W\n160E\n180\n100W\n80W\n60W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\nA\n53b\n50N\n50N\nis\n2\n66\n40N\n40N\n6\n3.\n10\n30N\n30N\n20N\n20N\n2\n0\n6\n2\nION\nto\nION\nif\n0\n2\nEQ\nEQ\n10S\n10S\n20S\n20S\n2\n30S\n30S\n2-22\n40S.\n2.1\n40S\n2\n6\nTo\n2\n6\n22\n2\n10\nJJA 1986\n50S\n50S\n1,\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n40E\n160E\n180\n160W\n-\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\nDEL\n50N\n50N\n22\n6\n6\nU\n2\n2\n2\n2\n4ON\n40N\n10\n30N\n30N\n20N\nto\n20N\n2\n2\nION\nto\nHI\n10N\nINS\n0\nEQ\nEQ\n10S\n10S\n20S\n20S\n2\n30S\n10\nLim\n30S\n2\n4\n6\n22\n40S\n40S\n10510\n10414\n2\n2\n2\nJJA 1987\nSOS\n50S\nT\n1.\n40W 20W\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n1004\nBOW\nGOW\n40W 20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\nBOE\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n50N\n50N\n4ON\n40N\ns\n30N\n30N\n20N\n20N\n:\n2\n2\n6\nION\nION\nEQ\nEQ\n10S\n10S\n20S\n20S\n2\n30S\n30S\n6\n2\n40S\n40S\n2\nTo\n6\n2\n6\n10\nJJA 1988\n50S\n50S\nT\n1,\n60W\n40W 20W\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\nEstimated rainfall for June-August 1986 (top), 1987 (middle) and 1988\nFigure 22\n(bottom)\nContour interval is 4 mm/day; values greater than 10/14\nmm/day have light/heavy stippling.\n31","00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W 20W\nDEL\n50N\n50N\n3\n40N\n235\n40N\n30N\n30N\n20N\n'\n20N\no\no\n:\n10N\nION\nEQ\n2\nt\nEQ\no\n10S\n0\n10S\n20S\n0\n20S\n30S\n30S\n40S\nD\n40S\nDJF 1986-87\n50S\n50S\nT\n1,\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\n80W\n60W\n40W\n20W\nEP\n50N\n50N\n40N\n40N\n30N\n30N\n20N\n20N\n10N\n0\n1\nION\nEQ\n0\nEQ\n10S\n08\n10S\n20S\n20S\n30S\n30S\n40S\nD\n40S\n-2-1\nDJF 1987-88\n50S\n50S\nT\nla\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\nBOE\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\n80W\n60W\n40W\n20W\nEEV\n50N\n50N\n52\n40N\n-1\n-2-2\n-2\n-3\n-2°\n40N\n3\nor\n2\n30N\n30N\n20N\n20N\nION\nION\n-1.\nEO\na\nEQ\n0\n10S\n10S\nO\n20S\n20S\n30S\n30S\n40S\nD\n40S\nDJF 1988-89\n50S\n50S\nT\n1,\n00\n20E\n40E\n60E\n80E\n100E\n120E\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n60W\n40W\n20W\nFigure 23 Anomalies in estimated precipitation for the same seasons as in\nfigure 21\nContour interval is 1 mm/day with the zero contour\nomitted; negative contours are dashed.\nNOAA Coral Gables Library Center\n32\n1320 South Dixie Highway, Room 520\nCoral Gables, Florida 33146","2.3.2 Climatology (Chelliah)\nIn the past, inconsistent base periods had to be used for computing\nanomalies of atmospheric variables and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to\nmonitor the global climate. Such variations made it difficult to compare the\nrelative magnitudes of different anomalies, especially when the extraordinary\n1982/83 warm ENSO event dominated the different base period means. To correct\nthis, it was decided to construct uniform 10-year (1979-1988) base-period\nmeans for all atmospheric variables that are in the Climate Diagnostics Data\nBase. First, monthly mean wind components temperature and geopotential height\non a global grid at 8 discrete pressure levels were compiled and 10-year means\nwere then calculated. After extensive tests, the new 1979-1988 base period\nmeans for all atmospheric variables and OLR were implemented. Thus, beginning\nwith the August 1989 Climate Bulletin and the seasonal climate summary for JJA\n1989, all anomalies are computed using the new 10-year base period means.\nThis revised climatology caused significant changes. As an example, figure 24\nshows the time-longitude cross section along the equator of the 850 mb zonal\nwind anomalies used in monitoring ENSO in the Pacific, computed as departures\nfrom the old (1980- 1984) and the new (1979-1988) base period means. A joint\narticle (with M. Halpert/CAC), describing the need and the impact of using\nthis new base period means, was written and submitted for publication (Journal\nof Climate).\nOperational Products\n2.4\n2.4.1 Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (Kousky)\nBeginning with the June 1989 issue of the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin,\na new section entitled Forecast Forum has been added, which focuses on predic-\ntions of the state of the Southern Oscillation/El Niño phenomenon. Authors of\nforecasting techniques (that have appeared in refereed literature) have been\nrequested to submit their forecasts for inclusion in the Forecast Forum.\nHopefully, these forecasts will provide useful information and help to improve\nthe understanding of the Southern Oscillation and its prediction.\nSeasonal Climate Review\n2.4.2\n2.4.2.1 September-November 1988 (Kousky)\nTropical Pacific indices were remarkably consistent in indicating\ncold episode - high Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - characteristics. This\nis the first cold episode since 1975. Sea surface temperature anomalies in\nthe central and eastern equatorial Pacific were generally between -1° and -\n3°C. Both the individual monthly values and the five-month running mean\nvalues of the SOI were at their highest levels since 1975. Drier than normal\nconditions prevailed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, as the strong-\nest convection remained over Indonesia.\nIn the United States, extreme summer drought conditions over the cen-\ntral part of the country gave way to generally wetter than normal conditions\nduring the fall. Temperatures during the fall were highly variable from\nmonth-to-month. The season, as a whole, was warmer than normal in the West\nand cooler than normal in the Northeast.\n33","DEC (86)\n2\nJUN (87)\n0\n0\nDEC (87)\n0\n0\ncar\nJUN (88)\n0\nDEC (88)\n-5\n3\nJUN (89)\n0\n2\nas\nDEC (86)\n01\nJUN ( 87)\nL\nDEC ( 87)\nJUN (88)\nO\nDEC (88)\n1\nJUN ( 89)\n233\n100E 120E 140E 160E 180 160W 140W 120W 100W 80W\nFigure 24 Time-longitude cross section of the 850 mb zonal wind anomalies\naveraged between 5°N and 5°S computed with respect to the old 3/80-\n2/84 base period monthly means (a) and the new 1979-1988 base period\nmonthly means (b) Contour interval is 1 ms Dashed contours\nindicate easterly anomalies, and westerly anomalies are shaded.\n34","2.4.2.2 December 1988-February 1989 (Arkin)\nSea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial\nPacific continued below normal through the period, although anomalies in the\neastern end of the basin appeared to be returning toward normal by February.\nOther indices, including those based on sea level pressure, low and high level\nequatorial zonal winds, and equatorial convection, continued to indicate that\na high index/cold episode of the E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenome-\nnon was in progress. Precipitation anomalies, characteristic of an ENSO cold\nepisode, continued with dry conditions in the central equatorial Pacific, the\nU. S. Gulf Coast, and part of southern South America. In contrast, above\nnormal precipitation occurred over parts of the western Pacific, the South\nPacific Convergence Zone area, and northern South America.\nLarge month-to-month variability in temperature occurred across the\nUnited States, with a near-normal December, a mild January and a cold Febru-\nary. No coherent pattern of drought occurred; however, small areas of below\nnormal rainfall heightened concerns over the recovery from the severe drought\nof 1988.\n2.4.2.3 March-May 1989 (Mo)\nCold episode conditions, which started in March-May of 1988, showed\nsigns of weakening during this season. Negative sea surface anomalies in the\ncentral and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to decrease. Also, the OLR\nindex appeared to be returning toward normal. However, the tropospheric cir-\nculation continued to show the influence of the cold event, although with\nlessening magnitude.\nThe United States, as a whole, experienced its 11th warmest spring\nsince 1931. Below normal rainfall was observed across the Midwest during\nMarch and April, although drought conditions were alleviated somewhat in May.\n2.4.2.4 June-August 1989 (Chelliah)\nSince May 1989, sea surface temperatures have remained within 1°C of\nnormal over most of the tropical Pacific, except at a few isolated places in\nthe eastern equatorial Pacific. Sub-surface oceanic conditions, as indicated\nby the depth of the 20°C isotherm, also suggested near normal conditions in\nthe past 4-5 months. These observations, combined with the near zero values\nof the central and eastern Pacific 850 mb zonal wind indices and the 200 mb\nwesterly wind index in July and August, indicate an apparent end to the 1988\ncold ENSO episode and a return to near normal conditions in the tropical\nPacific.\nThe normal temperature and precipitation patterns over the United\nStates and the near normal monsoon rainfall over India this season are consid-\nCondi-\nerably different than the conditions that existed during JJA 1988.\ntions over the Sahel, after 12 continuous years of drought, showed signs of\nrelief. Extremely high temperatures prevailed over sections of Europe,\nAlaska, northwestern Canada, and sections of the Soviet Union. These were\nassociated with an unusually persistent banded structure of 500 mb positive\n35","height anomalies in these regions and negative height anomalies near the Pole.\nThis pattern weakened in August 1989. In the Southern Hemisphere, the entire\nAustralian continent experienced an unusually cold winter season.\n2.4.3 Monthly Climate Diagnostics Briefings (Halpert)\nMonthly briefings were presented for September-November 1988 (by V.\nKousky), December 1988-February 1989 (by P. Arkin), March-May 1989 (by K. Mo),\nand June-August 1989 (by M. Chelliah).\n2.5\nSupporting Projects\nApollo Graphics (Ward)\nGraphics software, developed for the Apollo system, was used exten-\nsively during the past year in CAC research and development projects.\nExtensive editing software was implemented for use in the activities of the\nGlobal Precipitation Climatology Project. Also, a project is nearly completed\nthat will enable the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin to be generated in a \"desk-\ntop publishing\" mode on the Apollo network. In addition, several projects in\nCAC's Prediction Branch (portions of the monthly and seasonal outlooks and\nvalidation products) and Analysis and Information Branch (portions of the\nWeekly Climate Bulletin) made extensive use of the Apollo software.\n36","3. OCEAN CLIMATE ANALYSIS\n3.1\nOcean Diagnostics and Monitoring\n3.1.1 OMAS Development (Leetmaa)\nA number of efforts were focused on improvements to the ocean analysis\nsystem. First, an optimal interpolation system was developed for analyzing\nsea surface temperature. Second, the continuous assimilation system\n(developed at NOAA/GFDL, by Derber) was implemented for performing analyses of\nthe whole upper 300 meters of the water column. Third, the analysis period\nwas changed from monthly to weekly to provide more timely updates on the\nclimatic state of the Pacific. Fourth, a relational data base management and\ngraphics system was implemented, which enables the analysis system and the\nvarious data sets to be evaluated.\n3.1.2 Tropical Surface Winds and Fluxes (Leetmaa)\nA number of archives were implemented for a variety of flux fields from\nthe NMC atmospheric model. These are being monitored and evaluated routinely.\nThe evaluation is being performed by making comparisons with climatological\nvalues and by examining the fluxes during various stages of the assimilation\nand forecast cycle. These fluxes are also evaluated routinely, using the\nocean analysis/assimilation system (Fig. 25).\n3.2\nOperational Products\n3.2.1 Ocean Monitoring (Leetmaa)\nWeekly analyses of assimilated thermal surface and subsurface data have\nreplaced monthly runs. These analyses are now used to monitor the sea surface\ntemperature, sea level, and surface current variability in the tropical\nPacific. Despite the fact that sea level anomalies in the equatorial zone had\nbecome positive (generally thought to be a prerequisite for a warm event),\nthese analyses show that the central Pacific SST anomalies remain slightly\nnegative.\n3.2.2 Tropical Pacific Nowcasting (Leetmaa)\nMonthly products are submitted routinely as input to CAC's Climate\nDiagnostics Bulletin. Diagrams are being provided that show the variability\nof the depth of the 20°C isotherm, sea level, and the high resolution sea\nsurface temperature analysis (based on the ocean model) and it's anomaly (Fig.\n26). A chart that depicts the distribution of surface currents has also been\ndeveloped, but it is not yet included in the Bulletin.\n37","NET SURFACE HEAT FLUX (WATTS/M2)\nNET SURFACE HEAT FLUX (WATTS/M2)\n100\n100\n50\n50\n0\n0\n-50\n-50\nforecast fluxes dashed\nforecast fluxes dashed\nmean difference - -8 watts/m2\nmean difference 73 watts/m2\n-100\n-100\n1\n2\n3\n4\n5\n6\n1\n2\n3\n4\n5\n6\nWEEKS STARTING 8/02/89\nWEEKS STARTING 8/02/89\nI 40E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\nBOW\n2CN\n20N\nION\nON\nEQ\nEQ\n10S\n10S\n20S\n20S\n140E\n160E\n180\n160W\n140W\n120W\n100W\n80W\nNET SURFACE HEAT FLUX (WATTS/M2)\nNET SURFACE HEAT FLUX (WATTS/M2)\n100\n100\nforecast fluxes dashed\n50\n50\nmean difference 10 watts/m2\n0\n0\n-50\n-50\nforecast fluxes dashed\nmean difference 60 watts/m2\n-100\n-100\n1\n2\n3\n4\n5\n6\n1\n2\n3\n4\nS\n6\nWEEKS STARTING 8/02/89\nWEEKS STARTING 8/02/89\nFigure 25 Comparisons of weekly averages of the net surface heat flux estimated\nusing the ocean model (solid curve) with those from NMC's forecast\nmodel from 12Z to 36Z (dashed curve) in a number of different regions\nin the tropical Pacific. The ocean estimate is based on the sum of\nthe advective and storage changes in these regions over a week. The\natmospheric fluxes are not used to drive the ocean model. In some\nregions the ocean estimates are close to those from the atmospheric\nmodel. In persistent cloudy regions these is an indication that\nthere is too much shortwave flux in the atmospheric model.\n38","JAN 85\n150\n100\nFOR\nMAR 85\nMAY 85\nJUL 85\nSEP 85\nNOV 85\nJAN 86\nMAR\n86\n200\n200\nMAY 86\nJUL 86\nSEP 86\nCAP\nNOV 86\n-50\nJAN\n87\n150\n150\nMAR\n87\nESD\n50\n50\nMAY\n87\n150\n50\n150\n150\nJUL\n87\n50\n(50\n9:0\n150\nSEP\n87\n150\n150\nNOV\n87\n150\n150\nJAN\n88\n150\nMAR\n88\nMAY 88\nJUL 88\nSEP\n88\nNOV\n88\nJAN 89\n200\nMAR\n89\n200\nO\n200\nMAY\n89\n200\n200\nJUL\n89\nP\na\nDepth (Jan. 1985-Sept. of the 20 1989) C isotherm The along the 110W Equator in 70W the\nSEP 89\n150W\nI 70E\n130E\nvalues less than 50M and also contour for values interval greater is 10M than with 150M. Pacific shading Ocean for\nFigure 26\n39","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\n40","4. STRATOSPHERE and TRACE GASES\n4.1\nField Analysis\n4.1.1 Stratospheric Winds (Kann, Johnson)\nThe extension of the MRF model up to 10 mb is in a parallel testing\nphase, and a comparison is being made between stratospheric fields produced by\nthe NMC/0I global analysis and AIB analyses. These comparisons are being\nperformed for height and temperature fields in the Southern Hemisphere. Two\nmajor differences are that the OI analysis uses all available data while the\nAIB analysis uses only TOVS data, and that the 01 analysis requires a first\nguess field. The 01 analysis has been adversely affected by the first guess\nfield which is too cold in the stratosphere. Therefore, the major features of\neach analysis are similar but their maxima/minima values differ. Improvement\nin the 01 analysis is being obtained through changes in the acceptance limits\nof data, in preparation for a complete set of comparisons.\n4.1.2 Stratospheric Diagnostics (Nagatani)\nNo activity on this project due to loss of personnel.\n4.1.3 ERBE Analysis (Yang)\nThe products of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) have been\nutilized in diagnosing NMC's Medium Range Forecast (MRF) Model. During the\nwinter of 1988, NMC made significant improvements to the MRF model by imple-\nmenting an interactive cloud scheme. As a consequence, the model can simulate\nthe Earth's radiation budget more realistically. The model - generated budget\ncan be utilized in diagnosing the model's performance in such aspects as cloud\nfields, specific humidity, and tropical convection.\nIn a related diagnostic study, 2 five-day MRF model runs were con-\nducted for January 19, and 24, 1986. Comparisons with the data from ERBE and\nU. S. Air Force Real-Time Nephanalyses showed that the model cloud height in\nthe tropical regions was placed higher than the observations, with the model\nOLR in this region generally 20 W/M**2 lower than ERBE. This suggests a\ngeneral problem in cloud parameterization. Also, erroneous convection was\nidentified in the Eastern Pacific, where the model OLR is 75 to 100 W/M**2\nlower than ERBE. Another comparison, with OLR in the clear sky regions, indi-\ncated a moisture spin-up problem in the early stage of the model run. This\nresult suggests the initial moisture analysis may be too low and that the\nforecast model moisture field could be more representative of the real atmos-\nphere than the analysis.\n4.1.4 Upper Air Intercomparisons (Gelman)\nThe WMO International Radiosonde Intercomparison, Phase 3 took place\nin Dzhambul, USSR (August 1989), with the participation of personnel from the\nUnited States, Soviet Union, United Kingdom, Peoples Republic of China, and\n41","Finland. The preparation for this test involved extensive planning and coor-\ndination among several U.S. agencies. The U.S. team leader was M. Gelman/CAC,\nwith one other member from the NWS, and four from DOD. This test was a great\nsuccess and provided valuable information on the compatibility of upper air\ndata and details on instruments that is of great interest to various U.S.\nagencies.\nIn another project, the National Weather Service has tested two new\nmodels of radiosonde instruments and intercompared results with VIZ model\ndata. No temperature differences are apparent from the new and old models of\nVIZ radiosondes; however, stratospheric temperatures from the new Space Data\nradiosonde are about 1° C higher than VIZ data. Tables were derived and im-\nplemented to adjust temperature and geopotential height data used in NMC\nanalyses.\nWith the resumption of the NASA/Space Shuttle Program, CAC is\nagain\nproviding special support and information to NASA/Houston. Radiosonde,\nrocketsonde and satellite data as well as NMC analyses were used to derive\ncomposite best estimates from 400,000 feet to the surface along the re-entry\npath of each shuttle flight. Support was provided for 5 Space Shuttle land-\nings during the past year.\n4.2\nOzone/Temperature Trends\n4.2.1\nTrend Analysis (Miller)\nEfforts have focused on two aspects of the ozone trend problem: the\nrepresentativeness of the long-term ground-based total ozone observing system\nand the validation of the NOAA operational SBUV/2 ozone satellite data.\nIn\nregard to the first aspect, adjusted Nimbus-7/SBUV data were used to examine\nthe ozone trend pattern from November 1978 - October 1986. Based on a report\n(by L. Bishop and W. Hill, Allied Signal, Inc.) that examined Dobson data,\ncomparisons made at CAC between the SBUV data and the Dobson data clearly\nindicate the regionality of the ground-based results. Figure 27, represents\ntrend results for the Northern Hemisphere winter. It shows that the Dobson\ntrends are increasing with latitude over Japan, but decreasing with latitude\nover Europe. Both patterns are supported by the ground-based Dobson data. In\naddition, the figure shows that many of the regions of relative maximum change\nare located over oceans, which were not sampled by the ground-based program.\nFour comparison periods were selected - - winter and summer for both Northern\nand Southern Hemispheres. Although the patterns of ozone change very from\nseason to season and hemisphere to hemisphere, the overall results are very\nsimilar and point to the long-term requirement for global ozone data to deter-\nmine the true ozone change.\nA task has also been performed (in cooperation with NESDIS and NASA) to\nevaluate SBUV/2 data for long-term trend analysis. Figure 28 shows the SBUV/2\nminus Dobson values (%) for the March 1985-August 1988 period. This figure\nillustrates that initially the bias is about -1%. It becomes more positive\nwith time and is about +1% at the end of the period. This is under evaluation\nby a NOAA/NASA Science Team.\n42","0","3\n2\nDD\n1\nD\nO\n1\n2\n-3\nMAR SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP MAR SEP\n1985\n1986\n1987\n1988\nFigure 28 SBUV/2 minus Dobson (%) all stations.\n44","4.2.2 Temperature Trends (Miller)\nStratospheric temperature variation continued to be investigated.\nFigure 29 depicts the 2-mb monthly average temperature at the Equator for the\nperiod October 1978 - August 1989. An important point to add is that the NMC\ntemperature and heights analyses are the only long-term operational products\nextending throughout the area of concern: 100 - 0.4 mb (16-55 km). The\nmonthly data have been adjusted (by rocketsonde data) for instrument bias and\nthe annual and semi-annual cycles have been removed by harmonic analysis. The\nresults clearly show an overall decrease in temperature from 1978-1979 to\n1985-1986 of about -30 C, with a strong increase during the last several\nyears. This general pattern is very similar to the observed solar variation.\nThus, the actual temperatures may be a combination of a long-term trend plus a\nsolar cycle effect, as indicated previously for the total ozone changes. The\nstatistical evaluation of these data is underway.\n4.2.3 Stratospheric Climatology (Nagatani, Johnson)\nStratospheric data for the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition\nduring January and February 1989 were archived and compiled for comparison\nwith the past 25 winters. Preliminary results from some of the experiments\nshow that conditions during January and February 1989 were similar to condi-\ntions experienced in the Southern Hemisphere prior to the destruction of\nozone. However, one of the conditions needed for the destruction of ozone is\nlow springtime temperatures for maintaining polar stratospheric clouds. Fig-\nure 30 summarizes the lowest analyzed temperatures at 100, 50, and 30 mb in\nthe Northern Hemisphere polar vortex region for the last 26 winters (January\n1964 - April 1989). As can be seen, temperatures did not remain low enough\nfor maintaining polar stratospheric clouds into Spring 1989. This was due\nlargely to the stratospheric warming that occurred during the latter half of\nFebruary. On the extreme cold side of the envelope, conditions seem marginal\nfor the maintenance of polar stratospheric clouds into March. Other statis-\ntics at 50 and 30 mb show January 1989 to be the coldest January in the last\n26 years at high latitudes. However, as can be inferred from the diagram,\nthere were other years with lower temperatures for shorter periods.\n4.3\nOperational Products\n4.3.1 Circulation/Temperature Analysis (Gelman)\nTemperature conditions in the Antarctic lower stratosphere are of spe-\ncial interest in connection with the \"ozone hole.\" During October 1987,\nAntarctic ozone in the polar vortex had reached record low values coincident\nwith very low temperatures (-85° to -90° C) in the lower stratosphere In\ncontrast, Antarctic temperatures and ozone during Spring 1988 were consider-\nably higher than the long-term average. Figure 31 shows that 50 mb zonal\ntemperatures at 10S and 80S through September 1989 (solid lines) are only\nslightly higher than the long-term average (dotted lines). This is important\nin regard to the development of the Antarctic ozone distribution in September\nand October 1989.\n45","-5\n10\n- 15\n78\n80\n82\n84\n86\n88 90\nYEAR\nFigure 29 Equator 2-MB temperature 10/78 - 8/89 seasonally adjusted.\n46","Minimum Temp. NH 30mb\n-50\n-60\n-70\n-80\nMAR\n-90\nMinimum Temp. NH 50mb\n-50\nAvg.\n-60\n75-76\n88-89\n-70\n-80\n-90\nMinimum Temp. NH 100mb\n-50\n-60\n-70\n-80\n-90\n0\n30\n60\n90\n120\n150\nDay number (starting Dec. 1)\nFigure 30 Minimum analyzed temperatures at 100, 50 and 30 mb in the Northern\nHemisphere polar vortex. The shaded regions are the envelopes for\nthe extrema of the lowest polar vortex temperatures for a given day\nin the 25 or 26 years of record. The dashed line is the 25 or 26\nyear average of the lowest analyzed temperature in the polar vortex.\nThe single solid line is the lowest polar vortex temperature for\n1975-76, the coldest winter (December - February) on record for high\nlatitudes at 50 and 30 mb. The double solid line is the lowest polar\nvortex temperature for 1988-89. The arrows on the right hand side of\nthe figures are the temperatures at which the two types of polar\nstratospheric clouds form.\n47","15\n-25\n-35\n80S\nU\n-45\n-55\n-65\n-75\n10S\n-85\n-95\n105\nAPR\nJAN\nJUL\nOCT\nFigure 31 50 MB zonal mean temperature at 10S and 80S for 1989 (solid line) and\nlong-term average for October 1978 - September 1989 (dotted line).\n48","In the Northern Hemisphere, a major stratospheric warming that began in\nmid-February 1989 affected the entire stratosphere and led to a circulation\nreversal. However, for most of the winter, Arctic temperatures in the lower\nstratosphere were much below normal. In fact for the 100-30 mb layer, January\n1989 temperatures were lower than any January in the last 25 years. Because\nlow temperatures play an important role in the formation of polar stratos-\npheric clouds, the low January values had special relevance to the Airborne\nArctic Stratospheric Expedition. During January and February 1989 the Expedi-\ntion collected data to gain more insight into possible ozone depletion.\n4.3.2 Atmospheric Angular Momentum (Miller, Kann)\nEfforts have focused on the development and organization of the Sub-\nBureau for Atmospheric Angular Momentum which serves under auspices of the\nInternational Earth Rotation Service. One task of this group is to compare\nanalyses and forecasts with atmospheric angular momentum derived from the\nEuropean Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, the British Meteorological Office,\nthe Japan Meteorological Agency, and the National Meteorological Center.\nAnother task is to provide, via computer link, the daily calculation of the\nangular momentum to the user community. Through a series of meetings during\nthe year, the products and formats have been defined and the start date was\nset for October 1, 1989.\n4.3.3 Ozone Analysis (Nagatani)\nDuring January and February 1989, stratospheric data were provided\n(computer to computer link) to the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition in\nStavanger, Norway. The expedition objectives were accomplished using NASA\nhigh-altitude and long-range aircraft. Flights out of Stavanger, Norway used\nNMC data in flight planning to look for regions with high probabilities of\nencountering \"ozone holes\" and polar stratospheric clouds. These data are\nalso being used for post-expedition evaluations. Gridded analysis and fore-\ncast fields, as well as daily surface, upper air, and satellite data were\nprovided in near-real-time to NASA. These data will be used in global model\nforecasts of 3-D assimilation and stratospheric transport of chemical\nconstituents.\nPreliminary stages are now underway for a number of Upper Atmosphere\nResearch Satellite (UARS) Projects. Correlative meteorological data were\nassembled on CAC's MicroVax and are being transferred to a VAX computer at\nNASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. Software is being provided to access the\ndata on the VAX at Goddard from remote access computers at various locations.\nAs a result, data (interpolated to satellite data locations) can be trans-\nmitted to other investigators.\nIn other studies, meteorological data (interpolated to satellite data\nlocation) continue to be provided in support of the Stratospheric Aerosol and\nGas Experiment II (SAGE II) and Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement II (SAM II)\nsatellite instruments. These data are now transferred to NASA/Langley by the\nNASA SPAN Network through CAC's MicroVax, which has streamlined the procedure.\n49","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\n50","5. APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY\n5.1\nSurface Data\n5.1.1 Surface Climate Assessment (Miskus)\nHighly-variable precipitation anomalies characterized the past year\n(October 1988 - September 1989). In the Northern Hemisphere, ample precipita-\ntion not only alleviated long-term dryness in parts of the U.S. and Canada,\nbut caused excessive wetness in many areas. In contrast, most of California\nexperienced their third consecutive winter with subnormal precipitation, while\nlong-term dryness persisted in many parts of the West. In Europe, very dry\nconditions during the normally wet fall and winter months afflicted most of\nthe Mediterranean Coast. Subnormal winter precipitation then affected most of\nthe continent. Precipitation finally increased by mid-March in Europe, but\nvery dry weather returned in June to the British Isles and in July to\nsoutheastern Europe and the Ukraine. Farther east, near record October -\nDecember dryness in eastern China gave way to copious rains during January -\nMarch. Plentiful rainfall was also recorded in the Philippines, Taiwan,\nsouthern Korea, and Japan from January - September. The 1989 Indian monsoon\nseason, though not as active as 1988, was generally near normal. For the\nsecond straight year, near or slightly above normal summer rains were measured\nacross most of the African Sahel. This has not happened since the mid-1960's.\nIn the Southern Hemisphere, extreme dryness occurred through April 1989\nin Paraguay, southeastern Brazil, and northern Argentina. Then torrential\nrains occurred in southeastern Brazil (May), Ecuador and Paraguay (June),\nsoutheastern Argentina (July), eastern Argentina and Paraguay (August), and\nsouthern Brazil (September). Several dry and wet spells occurred during the\nyear in eastern Australia. After spotty summer rains in Zimbabwe and north-\neastern South Africa, the rainy season in southern Africa was slow to end.\nA number of significant temperature anomalies occurred in the Northern\nHemisphere. Eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada experienced an unseason-\nably mild December and January, but an excessively cold October, November, and\nFebruary. A mild January in the eastern U.S. was followed by bitter cold\nduring February in the western two-thirds of the nation. Unlike the record\nsummer heat in 1988, near to below normal temperatures prevailed across the\ncentral U.S. this past summer. A mild winter was observed across northern\nEurope and European USSR. In Asia, above normal temperatures were recorded in\nsoutheastern Siberia during most of the winter, spring, and summer months.\nSimilar, but less extreme conditions, were found in northeastern China, Korea,\nand Japan during much of the first half of 1989. Cool conditions occurred\nacross northern Africa and the Middle East from mid-December through February.\nHot weather was present for the beginning (June) and end (September) of the\nrainy season in the western Sahel.\nIn the Southern Hemisphere, there were only a few significant tempera-\nture anomalies during the year. Abnormally high summer temperatures accompa-\nnied the dryness in northern Argentina and Uruguay. Cool conditions prevailed\nin Bolivia during July, while eastern Argentina and Uruguay reported mild late\nwinter weather. Subnormal temperatures occurred in south-central Australia\nduring June and unseasonably cool conditions dominated the eastern half of the\ncontinent during August and September.\n51","5.1.2 CLICOM (Laver)\nCLICOM efforts continued with graphics and applications contractor\nsupport, (jointly funded with NWS/OM). The development of a CLICOM command\ninterpreter software package has enabled integration of upper-air sounding\nplots and other utility programs into the CLICOM graphics system. A signifi-\ncant effort has been required to overcome the problem of exceeding CLICOM\nhardware memory as more software modules are added. Meanwhile, an \"Output\nManager Module\" is being developed to manage graphics output options for low\nand high resolution plotters and printers that may be attached to CLICOM sys-\nitems. A software package (HALO 88) has been tested and implemented as part of\nthis module, due to its flexibility in driving various printer devices. In\naddition, consultation and software support was coordinated to enhance compat-\nibility between CLICOM and CAC internal (Apollo) graphics systems. Figure 32\nshows the location of Louisiana cooperative stations which were plotted using\nthe new CLICOM graphics package.\n5.1.3 SOLRAD (Yang)\nThe first batch of monthly SOLRAD data for 1988 has been sent to the\nWorld Radiation Data Center, Leningrad U.S.S.R. Twenty-nine of the possible\nthirty-one stations constitute the current network. (Longbeach, CA and Sterl-\ning, VA are not yet operative.) In June, the network started periodical in-\nstrument calibration, with 75% of the stations having completed the task.\nMany stations are in the process of recoding the new calibration constant in\nthe quality control solar models. The calibration facility at Boulder, CO\nwill continue performing these tasks for the network in the future. Also,\neleven stations have installed the new trackers for the direct solar measure-\nment (pyheliometer). The remaining stations will install trackers in conjunc-\ntion with NEXRAD. The SOLRAD data are being made available continuously on\nCAC's Climate Dial-Up Service.\n5.1.4 National Climate Assessment Data Base (NCADB) (Laver)\nAn investigation has shown that there are variations in data processing\nprocedures at River Forecast Centers (RFCs). This has precluded the immediate\nand consistent acquisition of \"real-time\" cooperative station observations at\nCAC. A major exception to this is the precipitation data currently processed\nby the RFCs and accessed by CAC. Meanwhile, other probes have uncovered sig-\nnificantly useful information. One example is the revised master version of\nthe NWS Cooperative Station Service Accountability dictionary (12,000 sta-\ntions) which is maintained by NWS/OSO.\nA number of recent efforts have also focused on obtaining selected data\nto improve CAC products. First, temperature and soil parameters are being\nassessed through AFOS to SHEF Automatic Processing. Second, policy level\nliaison has been implemented with NWS/Office of Hydrology to establish\nrequirements and procedures for more advanced automatic processing of cooper-\native data. Third, preparations were made for ingestion of Automated Surface\nObserving System data. Finally, an interrogation was made of independent data\nsources and networks accessible through the existing Regional Climate Centers.\nFigure 33 shows cooperative temperature sites for selected states, most of\nwhose data are not operationally available at CAC.\n52","LOUISIANA\nLOUISIANA\nTemperature Sites\nPrecipitation Sites\n33N\n33N\n+\n+\n31N\n3 IN\n#+\n+\n#+\n29N\n29N\n94.15W\n92.15W\n90.15W\n94.15W\n92.15W\n90.15W\nFigure 32 Louisiana Cooperative Station Locations Plots, Using CLICOM Graphics.\n53","ILLINOIS\nIDAHO\nTemperature Sites\nTemperature Sites\n42.50M\n47.47N\n40.50M\n45.47N\n38.50N\n+\n43.47N\n+\n4147N\n34.50N\n91.39W\n89.39W\n87.30W\n117.15W\n115.15W\n113.15W\n111.15W\nVIRGINIA\nTemperature Sites\n38N\n364\n83.30W\nBLOOW\n79.30W\n77.30W\nFigure 33 Cooperative Temperature Observing Sites for Selected States.\n54","5.2\nAgricultural Applications (JAWF)\n5.2.1 Climate/Agricultural Assessment (LeComte)\nThe climate event causing major agricultural impact this past year was\nthe central Plains winter drought. Kansas, the United States' most important\nwheat-producing state, was located in the middle of the hardest-hit area.\nWith October 1988 - April 1989 cumulative precipitation in Kansas the second\nlowest in the past 95 years, the severity of the problem was emphasized in\nbriefings and publications. Also, the winter drought was covered in the\nWeekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, and discussed in terms of its historical\nprecedence in an article written for USDA's Agricultural Outlook. This and\nother events were summarized in a report on U.S. annual weather and climate\nconditions, which was produced for the WMO Bulletin. In addition, congres-\nsional requests were answered and media interviews were conducted on a number\nof agriculture-related events.\nSome problems have risen in the use of the Palmer Drought Severity\nIndex (PDSI) as a operational index. The PDSI was designed as a climatolog-\nical tool to measure the scope and severity of prolonged meteorological\ndroughts or moisture excesses in the soil related to hydrological conditions.\nis not continuous, but is measured from the beginning of a wet or dry\nIt\nspell, which is determined by calculating a 100% \"probability\" that the oppo-\nsite spell is over. For example, the first substantial rain for an area expe-\nriencing a long drought could be the end of the drought and the beginning of\nthe wet spell or only a brief respite in the midst of the drought. This is\nnot necessarily determined until months (or even years) later, when enough\nsubsequent precipitation has been accumulated to end the drought (i.e. the\nprobability reaches 100%).\nConsequently, changes had to be made in the calculation of the prelim-\ninary PDSI, because the previous method was unsatisfactory for areas recover-\ning from extreme drought. An example of this is North Dakota's climatic divi-\nsion 9 (Fig. 34a). Note that the index jumps from high negative to positive\nvalues (or vice versa) when the probability goes over (under) 50%. This is\nportrayed by weeks 46-49 in figure 34b. The preliminary index modification\ntakes the sum of the wet and dry terms weighted by the probability. The re-\nsults of the modified preliminary PDSI are also shown in figure 34. This new\nmethod eliminates the flipping between positive and negative values when the\nprobability goes over and under 50%. Although this index would not be the\nsame as the final PDSI for transition periods, it would be the same during\nestablished weather spells (i.e., when the probability is 0% or 100%). This\nmodified index would also be continuous and normally distributed (unlike the\nPDSI) and allow for a smooth transition between weather spells.\nA meeting was held (September 1989) at the USDA to review JAWF opera-\ntions. Participants included JAWF, World Outlook Board, and CAC personnel, as\nwell as outside experts from Earthsat Corp. and Wang Corp. After current\noperations were described, ideas for improving communications, graphics, and\nproducts were discussed. This will be followed with a formal summary of short\nand long term goals for JAWF.\n55","NORTH DAKOTA - DIVISION 9\nGROWING SEASON BEGINS MARCH 5. 1988\nENDS FEBRUARY 25. 1989\n2\nX1 VALUE\n1\nORIGINAL PALMER\no\nMODIFIED PALMER\n-1\n-2\n-3\n-4\n-5\n2\n-6\nX3 VALUE\n-7\n-8\n-9\n-10\n0\n1\n5\n7\n9\n11\n13\n15\n17\n19\n21\n23\n25\n27\n29\n31\n33\n35\n37\n39\n41\n43\n45\n47\n49\n51\nWEEK NUMBER OF GROWING SEASON\nXI values for the incipient wet spell (circles), X3 values for the\nFigure 34a\nestablished drought (boxes), the current preliminary Palmer\nSeverity Drought Index (light line), and the new modified\npreliminary index (heavy line) for climatic division 9 in North\nDakota from March 5, 1988 to February 25, 1989. Index values of -4\nor less indicate extreme drought conditions. Hatched areas\nindicate differences in the two indices. Weekly precipitation\ntotals are given in bars at the bottom with amount in inches to\nCalculations are made with final data from the\nthe right.\nNational Climatic Data Center.\n2\n1\nORIGINAL PALMER\no\nMODIFIED PALMER\n-1\n-2\n-3\n-4\n-5\n-6\n80\n-7\n70\n-8\n60\n-9\n50\n-10\n40\n-11\n30\n-12\n20\n-13\n10\n-14\no\n1\n5\n7\n9\n11\n13\n15\n17\n19\n21\n23\n25\n27\n29\n31\n33\n35\n37\n39\n41\n43\n45\n47\n49\n51\nWEEK NUMBER OF GROWING SEASON\nSimilar to figure 34a, except the X1 and X3 values are omitted and\nFigure 34b\nthe probabilities of ending the drought (circles) are plotted\nat\nthe bottom instead of precipitation.\n56","5.2.2 Africa FEWS (LeComte)\nCAC's Agricultural Weather Section (AWS) closely monitored growing\nseason rainfall in Africa, in support of the Agency for International Develop-\nment's Famine Early Warning System (FEWS). The AWS provided the FEWS Project\nwith 10-day, monthly, and seasonal rainfall analyses across the FEWS Project\narea. These analyses were based on GTS reports and satellite data from both\nthe NOAA Polar Orbiters and the European Space Agency's Meteosat. The AWS\nalso provided FEWS with daily data on the location of the Intertropical Con-\nvergence Zone (ITCZ), as a means of monitoring the overall status of the re-\ngion's rainy season. The 1989 rainy season was favorable for Sahelien agri-\nculture for the second consecutive year. Preliminary rainfall data suggest\nthat 1989 was one of the three wettest years of the past 20 in the Sahel coun-\ntries. Nevertheless, there were some regional drought problems, especially in\nNiger and Sudan. CAC's monitoring efforts have played a role in determining\nthe extent of the problems.\n5.3\nClimate Impacts: Monitoring\n5.3.1 Products for Impact Evaluation (Laver)\nThe CAC has built an operational monthly (some cases weekly) exchange\nof climate impact descriptions and products with other agencies and centers.\nThese include: the NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center, Regional Climate\nCenters, Canadian Climate Centers (Winnipeg, Regina), NWS Office of Hydrology,\nU.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Soil Conservation Service. This effort\nhas provided CAC with many distinct and alternative products for evaluation\nand use in their published Drought Advisories and Special Climate Summaries.\nThis exchange program has also successfully provided information for more\ncomprehensive NOAA climate impact summaries and a more thorough understanding\nby users of climate information impacts. Figure 35 shows examples of two\nproducts which were derived using impact information from other centers.\nA summary of 1988 drought conditions and impacts (Drought Advisory\n88/12) was distributed to several hundred users during October 1988. Follow-\nup Advisories were issued in March, May, and July 1989. Also, a Special Cli-\nmate Summary for the 1989 growing season was completed for distribution in\nearly October. In addition, CAC continues to produce and disseminate issue\nthe Weekly Climate and Weather Update. This product presents a brief summary\nof the past week's conditions, the present week's outlook, as well as high-\nlights on special events and regional climate impacts.\n5.3.2 Socioeconomic Impacts (Lehman)\nA new operational data base for applications was created from data\nsupplied by the National Climatic Data Center and USAF/ETAC, as part of a\njoint CAC-NESDIS project. Daily max/min/precipitation data are included for\nthe 1948-87 period for 500 first order, military, and coop stations. A second\ndata base was also created that contains monthly and annual statistics for\nmonthly and daily temperature, precipitation, heating, cooling, and growing\ndegree-day variables. The latter one provides the basis for upgrading opera-\ntional CAC degree-day products and for implementing current joint projects\nwith federal agencies and private industry.\n57","MOISTURE STRESS ON WHEAT FOR CONTINUOUSLY CROPPED LAND\nSUPPLY MINUS DEMAND (MM)\nGROWING SEASON TO JULY 31, 1989\nCO\n-50\nthe\ntwo\n-50\nSASK\nMB\nALB\nB\n-50\nSUPPLY MINUS DEMAND (MM)\n-50 OR HIGHER\n-50 TO 150\n-50\n367\n-150 TO -250\n-50\ni\n-250 OR LOWER\nF100\n50\nISOPLETHS DRAWN EVERY 50 MM\nA\n-50\nI\n-50\n-50\n-50\nyou\nSL\n-100\n-150\n- -150\n-50\n-50 -100\n-100\n-50\n-100\n-50\nWINNIPEG CLIMATE CENTRE\n00W\n120W\nRECENT CLIMATE CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS\nLATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER 1989\nSOIL MOISTURE ADEQUATE\nFOR GRAIN CROPS.\n.\nSOIL MOISTURE INSUFFICIENT\nFOR GRAIN CROPS\nRESERVOIR AND\nLEVELS GREATLY IMPROVE\nRAINS AND FLOODS\nDELAY OR CANCEL\nFIELD AND VEGETABLE CROPS\nEXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRYNESS\nNORTHEAST\nPROMOTE FIRES AND\nSUBSOIL MOISTURE\nREGIONAL\nHEAT AND DAYNESS\nINCREASE FIRE POTENTIAL\nDEFICITS THREATEN\nCLIMATE\nSTRESS CROPS AND\nWESTERN\nCORN AND SOYBEANS\nCENTER\nPROMOTE GRASS FIRES\nREGIONAL\nHIGH PLAINS\nRAINS CAUSE FLOODS\n*\nCLIMATE\nREGIONAL\nPOLLUTE WELLS, DELAY\nCENTER\nCLIMATE\nCORN AND SOYBEAN PLANTING\nRESERVOIA STORAGE\nINSUFFICIENT\nCENTER\n*\nAND WATER SUPPLIES\nWATER SUPPLIES\nMIDWESTERN\nTIMELY RAINFACT\nCRITICALLY LOW\nCLIMATE\nINSUFFICIENT\nCENTER\nSUBSOIL MOISTURE\nRESERVOIA AND WATER\nEXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRYNESS\nFOR CROPS\n+SUPPLIES'EXSELLENT\nPROMOTE FIRES AND\nINCREASE FIRE POTENTIAL\nSOUTHEASTERN\nREGIONAL\nEXCESSIVE RAINS\nCLIMATE\nAND LOCAL FLOODS\nCENTER\nMODERATE\nMOISTURE\nDEFICITS\nEXCESSIVE RAINS\nPERSIST\nAND LOCAL FLOODS\nRECORD HEAT\nSOUTHERN\nREGIONAL\nCLIMATE\nCENTER\n.\nMID-JULY\n(PROPOSED)\nRAINS REDUCE\nMOISTURE DEFICITE\nMAJOR FIRES\nKEEP LAKE LEVEL LOW\nREGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS\nCAC AND OH/NOAA\nUSDA\nFigure 35 Examples of impact products which use information from other centers.\n58","A new method was developed, based on regression analyses of current CAC\nheating degree-day data and gas utility sales data. A proposal using this\ntechnique is the basis for a joint project with NESDIS and the National Regu-\nlatory Research Institute. The object is to create an operational energy\nconservation index for use by state Public Utility Commissions. Also, a joint\nproject was initiated with Columbia Gas Transmission Corporation to develop an\ninteractive system that employs CAC's 30-day temperature outlooks. This sys-\ntem will be used to anticipate demands and to manage natural gas flow at 46\nunderground storage facilities in the mid-Atlantic region.\nProgress was made in a number of areas toward the development of a Fire\nCondition Severity Index (joint project with the U.S. Forest Service). These\nincluded: the coordination for review of a proposed interagency agreement\nbetween NOAA/NWS and the U.S. Forest Service; the development of interactive\nsoftware system from the applications data base that gives 30-day outlook\nresults for weighted sets of stations in Western states; and the preparation\nof forest fire summary reports for the CAC Drought Advisory series.\nAn interactive software product was upgraded to facilitate the use of\nCAC's 30-day outlooks in individual decision making. This software can now\nproject precipitation, as well as temperature and degree-day variables. There\nis also increased coverage from 121 to 501 stations. In addition, a companion\nsystem was developed that that writes population- or acreage-weighted results\nfor preselected sets of stations to disk files. The output can drive models\nthat project weather-related energy use, crop yields, and water runoff. A\nnumber of potential government users are currently evaluating this software.\n5.3.3 Regional Centers (Laver)\nThe CAC staff has actively participated in Regional Climate Center\n(RCC) coordination and planning meetings. Leaders from nine centers (six\nRCCs, CAC, NCDC and NCPO) met in Anaheim, CA (January 1989) and again in Bar\nHarbor, ME (July 1989). Investigations of the RCC Technology Assessment\nCommittee have led the Centers to a plan for using the NSFNET as the backbone\nfor high speed communication among the centers. Dial-up access is also cur-\nrently available, or soon will be, at nearly every center.\nCAC activities, plans for interactions with the RCCs, and\nrecommendations for RCC activities were presented and discussed at a number of\nmeetings. These included: Midwest RCC Climate Information Workshop\n(Champaign, IL, November 1988); Western Weather Workshop (Reno, NV, January\n1989) : and the Southeast RCC Research and Technical Committee Meeting\n(Columbia, SC, September 1989).\nIn a related task, access and product exchange with each RCC is being\ntested via NSFNET and dial-up links. Dial-up access has been successful with\neach of the four RCC's that have this capability. Access to the Western RCC\ncomputer via NSFNET has likewise been successful. Routine, operational access\nto RCC data and products will be implemented in the near future. In addition,\nspecial data sets and dictionaries have been exchanged among the centers to\nenhance understanding and utility of various cooperative and automated\nobserving networks available at national and regional levels. Other CAC\ninteractions with RCCs were mentioned earlier (Section 5.3.1).\n59","5.4\nOperational Products\n5.4.1 Climate Dial-Up Service (Fulwood)\nThe Climate Dial-Up Service User (CDUS) Charging System went into\neffect November 1, 1988. As expected, there was a decline in the number of\nusers. During November and December 1988 there were 488 customers compared\nwith 1345 users for the previous two months when there was no fee. The number\nof customers has gradually increased from an average of 50 per week to over\n100 per week currently. Funds from the charging service are included in the\nNWS/Family of Services.\nThe upgrading of the CDUS was started in January 1989, with the\noperations being transferred from the Micromation system to the new MicroVax\nII computer. The Vax routinely interrogates the mainframe computer for data\nand updates products, which was not available on the Micromation system. This\nreduces the amount of manual interaction necessary for product updates. Tasks\nare underway to simplify user log-on procedures, to assemble a Vax\naccounting/user-charging package, and to install desired enhancements.\n5.4.2 Daily Weather Maps (Dionne)\nThe production of the Daily Weather Maps series continues with\nincreasing efforts being made to recover missing maps. Also the difficulties\nwith image registration on the base maps has been investigated with Department\nof Commerce's Printing Office and with the Government Printing Office.\nEfforts are underway to have the quality assurance level (for the registration\nonly) be advanced, as the GPO has stated that the printer is currently meeting\nthe specified level.\n5.4.3 Weekly Climate Bulletin and Briefings (Miskus)\nSeveral improvements have led to an increase in both data and printing\nquality of the Weekly Climate Bulletin (WCB). This is due to the highly flex-\nible Climate Assessment Data Base (CADB) and new desktop publishing capabili-\nties. Two software systems: Interleaf for Apollo workstations and Ventura\nfor PCs were implemented by June 1989. Both routine and variable WCB features\nintegrate the text and basic graphical capabilities of Interleaf. An example\nof text created through the use of Interleaf is shown in figure 36. The\nweekly global climate highlights which incorporates both text and complex\ngraphics is shown in figure 37.\nAdditional revisions were made to enhance the WCB. For example, the\nweather features map was separated into two weekly maps (observed\nprecipitation and temperature departure from normal) for clarity and detail.\nCountries with insufficient data receipts or historical statistics are now\nidentified by shading on all global anomaly maps. The monthly and seasonal\noutgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and departure from normal maps have been\nadded. Expanded versions of the annual U.S. and global significant climate\nanomalies, along with a new annual Climate Anomaly Index, were introduced in\nthe early 1989 issues. In addition, automated computer programs, graphics,\nsupplemental data, and press releases have enhanced global climate anomaly\ndetection. Finally, the number of users has increased to over 1000.\n60","CONTAINS:\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nSUMMARIES OF\nTHE 1989 INDIAN\nMONSOON AND\nAFRICAN SAHEL\nRAINY SEASONS\nWEEKLY CLIMATE BULLETIN\nNo. 89/39\nWashington, DC\nSeptember 30, 1989\nIsohyets drawn for 1, 2, 4, 6, & 8 inches\nA\nSTATIONARY\n>\nFRONT PRODUCED\nTotal Precipitation (Inches)\nNUMEROUS HEAVY\nSeptember 24 - 30, 1989\nSHOWERS AND\nTHUNDERSTORMS\n2\nACROSS MUCH OF\n4\nTHE SOUTHEAST\nDURING THE\nWEEK. UP TO 11.5\nINCHES OF RAIN\nCAUSED FLASH\n6\nFLOODING IN THE\nSOUTHERN\nAPPALACHIANS.\n2\nLOCALLY HEAVY\nTHUNDERSTORMS\nALSO INUNDATED\nTHE\nJACKSONVILLE\nAND\nAPALACHICOLA, FL\nMETROPOLITAN\n2\nAREAS.\n2\n4\n30N-\n2\n2\n42\n30N\n4\n2\n2 I\n4 6 4\n2\nStippled areas more than 4 inches\n2\nUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE\nNATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nEnhanced cover of the Weekly Climate Bulletin, with the use of\nFigure 36\nInterleaf software.\n61","GLOBAL CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS\nMAJOR CLIMATIC EVENTS AND ANOMALIES AS OF SEPTEMBER 9, 1989\n1. Western Canada and Alaska:\n4. Spain:\nDRY SPELL BROKEN.\nLATE SEASON WARM SPELL.\nAs the normally dry summer comes to a close, strong storms\nStrong southerly flow from a stagnant upper air ridge located off\ndeveloped that dumped nearly 207 mm on eastern Spain.\nthe western coast of Canada pushed temperature departures to\nAccording to press reports, flooding occurred as more than 130\nnear + 7°C. By the end of the week, daily maximums averaged\nmm fell in one day [Episodic Event].\nin the low 20's and were as much as 29°C near Fairbanks, AK\n5. Bulgaria, Romania, Moldavian and Ukrainian S.S.R.:\n[6 weeks].\nDRYNESS ENDS.\n2. Central U.S.:\nAbundant precipitation continued across Romania, Moldavia,\nand southern Ukraine where totals approached 162 mm and\nABUNDANT RAINFALL LEAVES SOIL SATURATED.\nshort-term wet conditions now exist. In the eastern Ukraine,\nSlow moving thunderstorms troubled many areas with strong\nslightly above normal precipitation has significantly eased\nwinds, severe lightning, and torrential rains that flooded roads\ndryness [Ended at 9 weeks].\nand washed out bridges. Topeka, KS exceeded their September\n6. Northeastern China:\nprecipitation normal (88 mm) in one day when 111 mm fell on\nthe 8th while Omaha, NE recorded 216 mm for the week (see\nMOISTURE REMAINS SHORT.\nU. S. Weekly Climate Highlights) [4 weeks].\nWith the exception of an area immediately north of Beijing\nwhere more than 30 mm was noted, light amounts (less than 10\n3. Caribbean Islands:\nmm) fell over the area as the trend of subnormal precipitation\ncontinued [6 weeks].\nLARGE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ACCUMULATED\n7. Japan:\nWhile approaching the islands, Hurricane Gabrielle veered\nnorthward, sparing the islands from major damage. As a result,\nRAINS POUND JAPAN.\nrainfall totals were slightly below normal in the Windward\nSouthern Honshu is experiencing unusually wet conditions after\nIslands (20-25 mm) and much below normal elsewhere (less\nrecent weeks of heavy precipitation. Many stations along the\nthan 15 mm). The largest precipitation deficits exist in Trinidad\nsouthern and western coasts received in excess of 200 mm, with\nwhere totals for the period are more than 500 mm below normal\na site on the southern coast totaling 386 mm as more than 100\n[12 weeks].\nmm of rain fell there on the 3rd, 5th, and 7th [4 weeks].\n180\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\n0\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180\n75N\n75N\n6\n5\n60N\n60N\n2\n4\n45N\n1\n45N\n6\n30N\n30N\n7\nFELIX\n15N\ns\n15N\nSARAH\nGABRIELLE\nEQ\nEQ\n3\n155\n15S\n30S\n30S\nCLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER\nMNC /NWS/MOA4\n455\n45S\n60S\n60S\n180\n150W\n120W\n90W\n60W\n30W\n0\n30E\n60E\n90E\n120E\n150E\n180\nEXPLANATION\nTEXT: Approximate duration of anomalies is in brackets. Precipitation amounts and temperature departures are this week's values.\nMAP: Approximate locations of major anomalies and episodic events are shown. See other maps in this Bulletin for current two week temperature\nanomalies, four week precipitation anomalies, long-term anomalies, and other details.\nFigure 37 Enhanced text of the Weekly Climate Bulletin, with the use of\nInterleaf software.\n62","5.4.4 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (LeComte)\nThe format for the cover of the WWCB was significantly altered (using\ndesktop publishing software) for the first time since 1981 (Fig. 38). The new\nlook is both attractive and consistent with the publication's long tradition,\nas the changes give it a semblance to the publication produced in the 1970s.\nIt is hoped that the larger cover map, improved \"Highlights,\" and other\nchanges will increase the readability of the Bulletin.\nDue to increased printing costs, the annual subscription fees to the\nWWCB were raised in December, 1988. The second class rates went from $25 per\nyear to $35, while first class rates rose from $40 to $50. Despite the in-\ncrease in price, the number of subscribers remained relatively unchanged.\nThere are now 1500 issues being mailed and another 300 distributed to USDA.\n5.4.5 Weekly Climate and Weather Update (Dionne)\nThe Weekly Climate and Weather Update has highlighted significant\nweekly climate conditions during the year. It also included special summaries\nof exceptional events such as Hurricane Hugo (See Fig. 39). This series is\nbeing disseminated to many users, who include: the NOAA Administrator,\nAssistant Administrator/NWS, NWS/Office of Hydrology, NMC/ National Hurricane\nCenter, NWS/Eastern Region Headquarters, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.\n5.4.6 National Capital Summary - PRESTO (Miskus)\nA monthly weather and climate review of the National Capital area\nentitled PRESTO (PREcipitation and Temperature Observations) has been jointly\nproduced by the CAC and NESDIS since September 1988. This monthly summary\nroutinely lists precipitation, temperature, and other meteorological and\nclimatological facts for National, Dulles, and Baltimore-Washington airports,\nFt. Belvoir, and Andrews Air Force Base. The production has been enhanced by\nthe use of color graphics and Ventura and Interleaf desktop publication\nsystems. The number of users has increased from 30 to 132 within a year, and\nincludes Congressional Offices, and local TV weathercasters.\nSupporting Projects\n5.5\n5.5.1 Graphics Applications (Logan)\nActivities focused on the transition of operational graphics production\nto the Apollo workstation environment and the integration of desktop\npublishing methods. A fundamental objective in this plan was realized with\nthe completion of the Ethernet between the WWB and the NAS 9000' S. With the\nnetwork intact, climate data could be easily transferred and incorporated into\ngraphic products. Figure 40 shows most of the CAC graphics and communications\nhardware, as well as peripherals, which are attached to World Weather Building\nNetworks. This led to the regular production of graphics, such as River\nForecast Center precipitation plots and Palmer-Drought Index color depictions.\n63","WEEKLY WEATHER\nAND CROP BULLETIN\nU.S. DEPARTMENT\nU.S. DEPARTMENT\nOF COMMERCE\nOR AGRICULTURE\nNational Oceanic\nNational Agricultural\nand Atmospheric\nStatistics Service\nAdministration, National\nand World Agricultural\nWeather Service\nOutlook Board\nVolume 76, No. 38\nWashington, D.C.\nSept. 26, 1989\nTOTAL PRECIPITATION, INCHES\nSEP 17 - 23, 1989\n0\n3.6\nq.5\n2\n8.5\n2\nq.5\n2\nHURRICANE\nHUGO\n>\nALASKA\nGREATER THAN INCHES\n8.6\nGREATER THAN 4 INCHES\nPRECIPITATION\nNOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based\n2\non\nHIGHLIGHTS\nHurricane Hugo tore though the Virgin Islands and Puerto\nContents\nPage\nRico with torrential rain and winds of 140 mph early in\nthe week before crashing into the South Carolina coast at\nHighlights & Total Precipitation Map\n1\nCharleston with winds of 135 mph on Thursday night.\nAverage Temperature & Departure Maps\n2\nHugo' high wind and storm surge caused widespread\nCrop Moisture Maps\n3\ndestruction in the Caribbean and South Carolina. Hugo\nDrought Severity Maps\n4\ntracked inland, bringing heavy rain from the Southeast,\nPrecipitation Needed to End Drought &\nacross the upper Ohio Valley, and to the lower Great\nExtreme Minimum Temperature Map\n5\nLakes. Persistent showers covered the eastern seaboard\nTotal Growing Degree Days & Departure\n6\npreceding Hugo due to a stalled front, while moisture\nNational Weather Data for Selected Cities\n'/\nfrom the remains of the Pacific Hurricane Octave brought\nNational Agricultural Summary\n10\ncontinued rain across the Pacific Coast States. A cold\nCrop Progress and Condition Tables\n11\nfront spread heavy rain from Wyoming to northern\nState Summaries of Weather and Agriculture\n13\nMinnesota on Wednesday, while a trailing cold front moved\nStreamflow During August 1989\n19\nrapidly across the East at week's end, bringing more\nInternational Weather and Crop Summary\n20\nSubscription and Mailing Permit Information\n(Continued on back cover)\n24\nFigure 38 Revised cover of the WWCB, with the use of Interleaf software.\n64","CLIMATE AND WEATHER UPDATE\nMonday, September 18, 1989\nTROPICAL CONDITIONS: Hurricane Hugo was centered about 50 miles north of San Juan, PR as of noon EDT (see satellite\nphoto below). Maximum sustained winds are forecast to drop to 115 mph as the storm center passes just north of Puerto\nRico and Hispaniola, then increase to near 135 mph before reaching the northern Bahamas on Thursday. Hugo could\nlater affect the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Tropical Storm Iris, located about 1200 miles southeast of Hugo, is forecast to\nmaintain intensity while missing the Caribbean Islands to the north and east.\nRECENT CONDITIONS (September 10-16,1989): Warm weather dominated the eastern and western extremes of the Nation\nwhile cool air settled into the Plains and Midwest (Figure 1). Heavy rains developed to the south and east of the central\nPlains as the cool air in the Nation's midsection pushed southeastward (Figure 2). Parts of the southern Plains were again\ninundated by widespread heavy precipitation, and much of the central Appalachians and Piedmont regions were also\ndeluged late in the week.\nCURRENT CONDITIONS (September 17-18,1989): Strong, gusty winds are being reported ahead of a cold air mass from the\nnorthern Intermountain Region to southern California. This cold air is also combining with the remnants of Hurricane\nOctave to bring rare September rains to California.\nHYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Flash flooding occurred in the central Appalachian region and flooding continued in portions\nof eastern Illinois and western Indiana. Flash floods also affected parts of Texas and Oklahoma, where up to 6 inches of\nrain were reported. Rivers in the central Plains continued to slowly fall below flood stage after last week's deluge.\nFIVE DAY OUTLOOK (September 19-23,1989): Last week's exceptionally cool weather in the central part of the country will\nbe replaced by near normal temperatures (Figure 3). Cooler than normal conditions are expected in the Southwest while\nwarm weather persists in the Northeast. A wet week is in store for the East Coast the northern Great Plains, the central\nand southern Rockies, and parts of the Great Basin and central California (Figure 4). Little or no rain is expected\nelsewhere. High winds and heavy rains from Hugo could affect parts of the East.\nContacts: J. Dionne, R. Tinker - 763-8071\nC. Watts - 427-7630\nHURRICANE HUGO\nCENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PR\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 MPH\nPEAK GUSTS TO 150 MPH\nMINIMUM PRESSURE 28.25\"\nRED CROSSHAIRS INDICATE FORECAST POSITION ON 9:21\nTROPICAL STORM IRIS\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH\nPEAK GUSTS TO 65 MPH\nMINIMUM PRESSURE 29.64\"\nENHANCED \"GOLS\" SATELLITE IMAGE AS OF 2:31 PM EDT 9/18\nColors reflect cloud top temperatures on a continuous scale, depicted on the bottom of the satellite image. from black\n(warmest) through blue, yellow, red, and pink (coldest). Colder cloud tops imply more intense thunderstorm activity.\nOF\nClimate Analysis Center, NMC, NWS\nnaan\nHydrometeorological Information Center, OH, NWS\n/\nof\nFigure 39 Example of figure contained in the Climate and Weather Update.\n65","CAC SYSTEMS\nDIAL IN MODEMS\n(ROOM 811)\nVT320\nTERMINAL\n(ROOM 811)\nSERVER\nSNA INTERFACE\nIROOM 811)\n10 NAS SYSTEMS\n3270 TO NAS\n//AIB\nWWB ETHERNET\nSTRAT\n//DEVEL\nPC\nON 4000\nDN4000\n(ROOM 808)\n1320 MBYTE)\n(320 MBYTE)\n(ROOM 811)\n(ROOM 605)\nMISKUS\nPC\n(ROOM 808)\n//CAC\nDSP90\nETHERNET\n1500 MBTTE)\n//FORCST\nDELNI\nFAN OUT\nROOM 605)\nDN3500\n(ROOM 808)\n1320 MBYTE)\n(ROOM 6051\nDEC LA210\nAPPLE LASERWRITER\n//OCEAN\nIROOM 808)\nIROOM 811)\nDN 3500\n1320 MBYTE)\n(ROOM 807)\nNASA\nA IBVAX\n(DECNET)\nAPOLLO DOMAIN RING\nNWS\n(9600 BPS)\n//MET\nMICROVAX 11\nDN3000\n(ROOM 808)\n//SYSAD\nCALCOMP\n(DISKLESS)\nDN4000\nAPPLE LASERWRITER\nIROOM 6051\n(320 MBYTE)\nLA100\n(ROOM 605)\n(ROOM 808)\nWWB ETHERNET\nVT320\nVT320\nV1320\nIROOM 8081\nIROOM 808)\nIROOM 808)\n//MODEL\n//GRAPH\n//CPUB\n//PRECIF\nDN4000\nDN4000\nDN4000\nDN4000\n1320 MBYTE)\n(155 MPYTE\nCALCOMP\n(155 MBYTE\n1320 MBTTE)\n(ROOM 605)\nROOM 6051\n(ROOM @11)\n(ROOM 605)\nLFT 18-OCT 1989\nFigure 40 CAC hardware and peripherals attached to World Weather Building\nNetworks.\n66","Support for the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) continued\nwith the installation of Laserwriter printer and Interleaf software. Also,\ngraphics depicting Northern and Southern Hemisphere upper air and surface\nforecasts were made available to JAWF on a daily basis. Such products will\nsoon be received directly through an Apollo workstation and Calcomp plotter,\nwhich will be networked to the World Weather Building.\n5.5.2 Satellite Monitoring Products (Logan)\nA task to support the Agency for International Development was\ninitiated in May to improve precipitation estimation over the Sahel. Three-\nhourly Meteosat images, available on the VDUC system, were scanned for cold\ncloud reflectances and these occurrences were accumulated over a variable\ntime-period (7-day, 10-day, or 30-day). The resulting values were color coded\nto represent the approximate number of times that likely precipitation-\nproducing clouds were over an area. This information was found to be most\nuseful when it is combined with both surface and OLR data. A suggested\nenhancement to the technique would incorporate the use of a variable temper-\nature threshold at different locations. Also, modifications are under way to\nproduce a grid file of imagery values that will enable remote users to repro-\nduce the graphic on a personal computer. This would also be used to transfer\nsatellite imagery from the VDUC to JAWF for display on Apollo workstations.\n5.5.3 Climate Assessment Data Base (Patterson)\nExtensive development and tests were completed for the overwriting of\nseveral data files in the Climate Assessment Data Base (CADB). Since the\nCADB's implementation in January 1987, the maximum number of days that could\nbe stored on daily global summary files was restricted to 1000. As a result,\nnew software had to be written and tested before July 1989. Several other\nrelated CADB files, corresponding software, and all extract programs also were\nrevised. After extensive testing, the CADB's daily data files were success-\nfully overwritten in May 1989. A similar effort is now under way to overwrite\nthe 36-month monthly global surface data files which will be at capacity in\nDecember 1989. Figure 41 is a simplified data flow diagram for the CADB.\nIn addition to the above project, a number of related tasks were\nachieved. Special programs were developed to correct erroneous data (daily\nand monthly) in the CADB for any location, time, and parameter. Also, all\nCADB extracts were modified to incorporate an optional input in the form of a\nlatitude/longitude window for TSO users. In addition, the CADB station\nlibrary and dictionary were updated, and over 300 stations (with new or modi-\nfied precipitation and temperature normals) were inserted into the CADB files.\n5.5.4 JAWF Briefings (LeComte)\nCAC meteorologists gave detailed presentations to USDA crop analysts\non a number of major weather events affecting global crop production. The\nweather anomalies covered in the weekly briefings included: persistent drought\nin Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina; the record drought in the U.S. winter wheat\nregion; and the subsequent dryness in the spring wheat region; and the summer\ndrought in Europe and the Soviet Union's Newlands.\n67","DATA FLOW FOR CLIMATE ASSESSMENT DATA BASE\nNORTH AMERICAN\nNORTH AMERICAN\nGLOBAL\nSYNOPTIC DATA\nAIRWAYS DATA\nSYNOPTIC DATA\nVALIDATION\nVALIDATION\nAND\nAND\nSUMMARIZATION\nSUMMARIZATION\nDAILY\nSUMMARY\nFILE\nWEEKLY\nMONTHLY\nCLIMATE ASSESSMENT\nSUMMARIES\nCLIMAT\nDATA BASE\nETC.\nDATA\n1000-DAY FILE\nCLIMATE ASSESSMENT\nVALIDATE\nDATA BASE\nMONTHLY\n36-MONTH FILE\nCLIMAT\nDATA\nSEASONAL\nSUMMARIES\nETC.\nFigure 41 Data flow for CAC's Climate Assessment Data Base.\n68","6. CLIMATE PREDICTION\n6.1\nEmpirical Studies\n6.1.1 MRF Model Correction (Livezey)\nA statistical method was implemented that corrects numerically pro-\nduced forecasts of several pressure levels. This procedure is now being used\nin the 6 to 10-, 30-, and 90-day forecast operations.\n6.1.2 Medium Range (6-10 Day) Forecast Development (Epstein)\nEfforts have concentrated on an objective method for predicting anoma-\nlies of precipitation frequencies. Monthly perfect prog equations are nearing\ncompletion that will specify the probability anomalies of 0 and 2 or more days\nwith measurable precipitation for each of 146 stations (based on 700 mb height\nanomalies). Tests of these equations will then be applied to 6-10 day MRF 700\nmb predictions. This output will then be combined with precipitation frequen-\ncy estimates taken directly from model output.\nProgress in developing a modified perfect prog prediction approach was\nmeasured largely in the acquisition of data to test the method and begin to\nunderstand the stability of the estimates of key parameters of the method.\nThis is an approach that takes specific account of the predictability of the\nvariable used to specify the predictand. Regression corrected height, temper-\nature and moisture MRF forecasts were assembled, with their verifying analyses\nand these were used for preliminary calculations. In addition, a dataset was\nobtained (from NWS/TDL) that will permit an extensive test of the post-\nprocessed perfect prog prediction scheme.\n6.1.3 Seasonal Empirical Prediction (Barnston)\nMixed Prediction System: Tests have verified that analog and persist-\nence temperature forecasts can be objectively combined with gains in skill\nover either input of 20-30%. These experiments have been documented in an\narticle that has been accepted for publication (International Journal of Cli-\nmatology). Two suites of program were written and underwent final testing\nthat will now implement the best scheme operationally.\nSolar Cycle/QBO/Atmosphere Relationships: While statistical studies\nconfirmed a QBO phase-conditional relationship between radio wave solar flux\nand U.S. surface temperature in mid-winter through early spring, results now\nshow that forecasts using the state of the ENSO in combination with the solar/\nQBO information have still greater skill (Fig. 42). This is the case because\nthe skills from each predictor are largely non-redundant. A paper describing\nthe solar/QB0/atmosphere findings has been accepted for publication (Journal\nof Climate, Nov. 1989 issue). The relationships are being used directly in\noperational forecasts and as criterion for analog selection.\n69","is\nFigure 42 Multiple regression prediction of January-February Southern Oscillation mean Index\nsurface temperature on the the basis 22 years of a with west QBO phase since\nU.S. .\n(SOI) and solar flux in for stippled areas are statistically solid significantly black have\n1951. Temperatures the SOI, hatched areas by the flux, and by the two\npredicted at least by half of the temperature variations explained\npredictors.\n70","System: The analog prediction system has been\nAnalog\nPrediction\nrefined. It now incorporates the NWP-based forecast for the remaining week of\nthe current month into estimates of the current month's mean values for\nseveral data fields.\n6.1.4 Prediction and Specification Studies (van den Dool)\nThe study to make 12-hour forecasts through limited area analog fore-\ncasts (AF) of 500 mb height continues to show encouraging and interesting\nresults. For example, it was found that anti-analogs are nearly as powerful\n(as analogs) in forecasting tendencies in 500 mb height. The anomaly correla-\ntion, tendency correlation and RMS error indicate that AF is, in skill, closer\nto NWP than to persitence. Additionally, better quality analogs can be found\nin persistent flow types than in transient flow types. Thus, forecast skill\ncan be predicted more precisely and can be applied right away. In a follow-up\nstudy attempts are being made to apply the piecewise AF method globally and to\nmake repeated 12-hour timesteps.\nIn a related study, a method was developed to measure forecast skill of\nNWP as a function of frequency and lead time. When applied to 128 successive\nMRF forecasts, it was found that in the low frequencies the model is barely\noutperforming persistence (Fig. 43). In the high frequencies, the model has\nprediction skill over a time comparable to the lifetime of cyclones. A paper\nthat describes these results has been accepted for publication (Monthly\nWeather Review, Jan. 1990).\nAlso, a study was completed on the relation between monthly mean verti-\ncal motion and monthly precipitation over the United States. A manuscript on\nthe results for 1981-86, 1984-86 in particular, has been accepted for publica-\ntion (Tellus, 1990).\nIn another task, an analysis was made of the high annual temperature\nduring 1988 in the Netherlands (and elsewhere) in historical perspective. The\ncontention that the greenhouse effect is the cause (beyond reasonable doubt)\nof the warmth in 1988 is not supported by empirical evidence. An article on\nthis subject has been accepted for publication (Zenit, Dec. 1989).\n6.1.5 Tropical Surface Winds (van den Dool)\nResults were published on the study of the time-mean tropical surface\nmementum balance. A simple model was used that calculates tropical surface\nwinds from time-mean seal level pressure fields. Steady state surface winds\nwere numerically calculated from the nonlinear horizontal momentum equations,\nwith forcing from observed climatological monthly mean sea level pressures and\nprescribed lateral boundary winds. Comparisons of model winds with observed\nclimatological monthly mean winds show realistic simulations in most regions\nand in all months. The poorest simulations occur in the meridional component\nof the wind in near-equatorial areas of strongly convergent or weak winds. In\nthese areas, and in the near-equatorial region generally, diffusion processes\nmake a significant positive contribution to the realism of the model winds.\nHorizontal nonlinear advection also improves the simulation near the equator,\nthough to a smaller degree. The generally skillful model winds refute the\nconventional idea that weak gradients make the tropical pressure field a poor\n71","3\n0\n10\n8\n9\n72","tool for calculating tropical winds. To the contrary, tropical pressure\nfields contain substantial information about associated winds. Thus, a rela-\ntively complete momentum balance can be identified for the major features of\nthe time-mean tropical wind field.\n6.2\nDynamical Methods\n6.2.1. DERF - Operational Feasibility Assessment (Tracton)\nA paper documenting DERF efforts at the NMC was published (Monthly\nWeather Review, July 1989) following a major upgrade of figures. The paper\nfocuses primarily upon evaluation of the DERF II data, the contiguous set of\n30-day runs generated for 108 days during the 1986-1987 winter. Results\nshowed that in the 1-30 day mean Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height fields, the\ndynamical model is almost always more skillful than persistence. However,\nmost of this skill is concentrated in the earlier time ranges. It was also\nfound that the use of statistical postprocessing, including time averaging,\nLagged Average Forecasting, correction of systematic errors, and Empirical\nOrthogonal Function filtering, separately or in combination, can significantly\nenhance the skill of already skillful predictions. However, they do not have\na significant effect on poor forecasts. Finally, a major finding is that a\nlarge component of the variability in forecast skill results from the\ninability to predict the evolution of blocking events beyond a few days into\nthe forecasts.\n6.2.2 DERF - Regime Dependent Predictability (Tracton)\nEfforts have focused on that aspect of predictability which appears\nrelated to scale interaction processes in blocking. The basic approach con-\nsists of synoptic analysis and quasi-geostrophic diagnosis of the dynamical\nprocesses in the real vs. forecast model atmosphere. Relevant codes, includ-\ning graphical display of results, were completed and applied to the DERF II\nAtlantic/European blocking case of January 1987, particularly the develop-\nmental phase (January 3-12).\nScale interaction processes, particularly the advection of sub-planet-\nary scale vorticity by the planetary scale circulation, were clearly predomi-\nnant in the observed development of the block. Forecasts generated during the\nDERF II experiment produced little, if any, indication of that development\nbeyond the 3-day range (Fig. 44). The diagnostics show explicitly that this\nlargely reflected a feedback between errors on planetary and sub-planetary\nscales, as shown schematically in figure 45. Reruns of two cases with the\npresent higher resolution operational T80 model (compared to the R40 resolu-\ntion of the DERF II study), although not without large errors in phase and\namplitude, did produce a blocking anticyclone at both the 6 and 10 day range\n(Fig. 46). This dramatic improvement in the predictions was attributed to\ndecreased acceleration of the error growth associated with the feedback loop\njust mentioned. A paper documenting this study was written and submitted for\npublication (Monthly Weather Review).\nAdditional cases and stages of blocking evolution are being investi-\ngated, as are other types of regime transition. The fundamental questions\nbeing addressed are: 1) how frequently, 2) under what situations and circum-\n73","528.\n$76\n576.\n303\n544\n460\n480.\n192\n23\n516\n456.\n4806 BOY\n556\n504\nSTS\n528)\n40\n$52\n520\n513.\n652\n$64\n516\n528\n840\n516.\n5.76.\n576.\nsit.\nDAY 10\nDAY 6\n540\n540.\n518\n6.\nsn.\n506.\n505.\n604\n516\n480\n192\n480\n468\n92\n54\n560\n468.\n552.\n540\n552\n564\n576.\n$76\n$64\n540.\n5122\n28\n530.\nsos.\n585.\n540\n552\n500\n516\n582\n528\nDAY 3\nVERIF\nFigure 44 Day 10, 6, and 3 500 mb height predictions valid 12 January 1987, and\nverifying analysis. Units: decameters.\n74","Sub P error\nscale interac\nscale interac\nP error\nFigure 45 Schematic of error feedback loop.\n576.\n$16\n50%\n504.\n576.\n50,\ntak\n468.\n504\n400\n504\nyears\nIP\nsh.\n2516.\nH\n480/\n516\n468\n516\n-561\n528\n548.\n540\n552.\n564.\n564.\n540.\n552\n5.6\n518\n$28\nS28.\n552.\n576.\n504\n504\n16\n585.\nDAY 10\nDAY 6\nFigure 46 Day 10 and day 6 T80 500 mb height (dekameters) valid 12 January\n1987.\n75","stances, and 3) how physically do smaller-scale, more transient atmospheric\nfeatures affect evolution of the larger, more slowly varying circulation.\nRecognizing when and where scale interaction processes are important and\nunderstanding why can lead to model improvements that enhance predictability\nand/or suggest approaches for applying confidence limits to forecasts.\n6.2.3 DERF II Spinoff Test (Tracton)\nBased on the findings of the DERF II experiment, a set of supplementary\ntools for 30-day forecasting were designed for experimental use by CAC fore-\ncasters within a quasi-operational framework and schedule. Those tools in-\nclude extending the operational MRF model run from 10 to 15 days and calculat-\ning measures of difference between predictions within LAF ensembles. This\nexperiment started in Jan. 1989 and is planned for at least 2 years. The\nexperiment consists of deciding after release of the official Monthly Outlook\nwhether and, if so, how to \"revise\" the forecast given the new information\nfrom the MRF model extension. Revisions, if any, are restricted to the cate-\ngorical and probability temperature outlooks over the United States. These\nchanges are inferred in part from the model predicted 1-10 or 1-15 day mean\n700 mb circulation. So far, forecasters have made minor changes to about one-\nhalf of the forecasts. Qualitatively, some of the revisions have proved to be\nin the right direction and some have not. Quantitatively, revised forecasts\nare being verified in comparison to the official versions; however, the\nnatural variance of skill scores precludes demonstration of significant\ndifferences at this time. Case study evaluation of the extended predictions\nis now underway with regard to specific features, such as regime transitions.\n6.2.4 MRF Model Skill Prediction (Chen)\nThe motivation of this study is to better understand the implications\nfor medium-range and extended forecast skill of both the PNA mode circulation\nregime and the persistency of circulation. Preliminary results indicate that\nwhen persistence is higher, the skill also tends to be higher. However, when\nusing PNA mode extent as predictor of skill, the results turn out to be even\nbetter (Fig. 47). This study was carried out a step further to investigate\nthe competing roles of initial PNA conditions vs. model forecast PNA mode as\npredictors of skill. It is found that the model forecasts are sluggish in\nevolution of PNA mode compared to the real atmospheric motions. This model\ndeficiency appears to make the initial PNA condition a poorer predictor of\nskill than the latter predictor just described.\n6.2.5 MRF Model Behavior and Predictability (Chen)\nSix hundred cases of wintertime 1- to 10-day operational forecasts,\nbased on the NMC-MRF model, were examined for their performance. In addition\nto hemispheric-wide assessment, the North Pacific/North America (PAC) and\nNorth Atlantic/ Eurasia (ATL) sectors were also evaluated and compared.\nResults show that during E1 Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters, the\nforecast skill over the PAC sector is significantly higher than over the ATL\nsector (Fig. 48). Also, the average skill over the PAC sector, for winter as\na whole, was found to be significantly higher during ENSO winters than non-\nENSO winters. Thus, interannual variability in skill can be detected for the\n76","1.0\n0.8\n0.6\n0.4\n0.2\n0.0\n-.2\n-.4\n-.6\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n25\n30\n1.0\n0.8\n0.6\n0.4\n0.2\n0.0\n-.2\n-.4\n-.6\n0\n5\n10\n15\n20\n25\n30\nFORECAST RANGE\nFigure 47 Using PNA pattern extent of each 15-D forecast as criterion to\ndiscriminate, among 108 cases of DERF experiments, those with better\nforecast skill (upper panel) from those with worse forecast skill\n(lower panel). . The criterion used is (mean + one SD) for the upper\npanel and (mean - one SD) for the lower panel.)\n77","1.0\n0.9\n0.8\n0.7\n0.6\nARC\n0.5\n0.4\n0.3\n0.2\n1986/87\n1982/83\n0.1\n0.0\n0\nI\n2\n3\n4\n5\n6\n7\n8\n9\n10\n6\n7\n8\n9\n10\n0\nI\n2\n3\n4\n5\nFORECAST RANGE\nFORECAST RANGE\nFigure 48 The 108-case average APC for 1- - to 10-day forecasts: Solid curves\nfor PAC sector and dashed curves for ATL sector.)\n78","PAC sector. Within ENSO winters themselves, the contribution to better per-\nformance in the PAC sector comes mainly when the large-scale circulation is\nPNA-like (where PNA stands for the dominant circulation mode of the PAC\nsector). This is consistent with results by other researchers who found that\nthe forecast skill over the PAC sector is strongly correlated to the fluctua-\ntion of low-frequency PNA-mode.\nAn investigation was also made of other skill characteristics. In gen-\neral, much larger variability in skill is found for the ATL sector than for\nthe PAC sector. The ratio of the former to the latter can be as large as 2,\nas exhibited by the 1986-87 ENSO winter. An assessment was made of the poten-\ntial usefulness of a simple amplitude time series that represents the extent\nof PNA-like circulation of forecasts in prediction of forecast skill.\nA\npaper, describing the above results, has been accepted for publication\n(Monthly Weather Review, Jan. 1990).\n6.2.6 Prediction of MRF Errors and Predictability (0'Lenic)\nDevelopment and testing are under way of a technique designed to cor-\nrect MRF 10-day forecasts of 700 mb height. The technique is based on recent\nresults (0'Lenic and Livezey, 1989) which demonstrated that the MRF 5-, 7- and\n10-day forecasts exhibited seasonally and geographically dependent systematic\nerrors in response to certain low-frequency modes in the initial conditions.\nThe operational technique projects the current daily 700 mb height analysis\nonto the modes appropriate to the current season to determine which modes are\npresent. Should a mode to which the MRF is sensitive appear in the analysis,\nthe systematic height error associated with that mode may be subtracted from\nthe MRF forecast and the resulting map provided to the forecaster.\n6.2.7 Simplified Dynamic Models (van den Dool)\nA task is underway, using CAC's updated global climatology (1979-88),\nto implement some models that were developed at the University of Maryland/\nCICS. In particular, a model (based on the vorticity equation applied at 250\nmb) has been used to forecast next month's flow. In the model the solution is\nthought to be in quasi-stationary equilibrium with the forcing, and the month-\nto-month change is due to changes in the wavy-basic-state background windfield\n(containing divergent components as well). Applying the method to climatology\nitself, worthwhile tendency correlations were found over the U.S. in 10 out of\n12 months (verifying the vorticity fields). However, the very long waves move\nfar more than is observed, and the forcing (due mainly to mountains) has to be\nupdated as well. Attempts are now being made to forecast the forcing.\n6.3\nEvaluation\n6.3.1 Experimental Climate Forecast Center (Livezey)\nCAC/Prediction Branch scientists were active participants at the\nExperimental Climate Forecast Center Representatives Meeting held in\nCambridge, MA, in conjunction with the 13th Annual Climate Diagnostics Work-\nshop (Nov. 1988). As a follow-up to this meeting, a draft plan for the ECF\nProgram was reviewed and forwarded to the National Climate Program Office.\n79","A task was completed that provides the National Climatic Data Center\nwith selected CAC data sets and accompanying documentation for the\n(NCDC)\nClimate Research Data Base. The data sets will be updated annually by CAC and\nfuture data requests will be supplied by NCDC.\nThe CAC/Southern Oscillation prediction project steering group met with\nthe project team to review plans and policy. Actions were agreed upon to lay\nthe groundwork for project initiation and eventual product implementation.\n6.3.2 Evaluation of Operational Outlooks (Livezey)\nNew seasonal summary verifications (1982-88) by station have been cal- -\nculated for monthly precipitation forecasts in three classes to replace former\ntwo-class summaries. Monthly temperature forecast verification summaries and\nseasonal verification summaries have now been updated to 1988.\n6.4\nOperational Products\n6.4.1 Medium Range Forecast (Hughes)\nOne of the more exciting developments in the 6-10 day forecast program\nhas been the introduction of the D+8 500mb departure from normal (DN) blended\nprog into operations. It allows the forecaster, after digesting the numerical\nmodel output, to obtain a weighted mean of a maximum of two recent 5-day mean\nanalyses (analogs), the MRF D+8, the linear regression correction to the MRF\nD+8/D+6/D+4, and the ECMWF solutions. This then may serve as the official D+8\n500 mb mean of days 6 through 10 DN prog for distribution. The weights are\nassigned by forecasters, based on their experience and knowledge of the mean\nflow pattern. This technique has gradually replaced the manually drawn 500\nmb/DN prog and has led to the automation of the DN values required for input\ninto the 5-day mean perfect prog temperature equations. Figure 49 shows North\nAmerican standardized correlation scores for different 500 mb progs. The\nincrease in skill (superiority) of the official prog can clearly be seen,\nsince its implementation in January 1989.\n6.4.2 Monthly Outlook (Livezey)\nThe widespread mildness in the eastern United States during January\n1989 and the following mid-monthly period were well forecast, as was the cold\nweather in the Great Basin. The expansion of the cold in the west to include\nthe Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley during February was also well\nindicated. Much of the dry weather in the Southeast and wetness in the middle\nof the country was also accurately forecast (Fig. 50) On the other hand the\nmonthly forecasts had trouble accurately predicting the beginning of the wet\nsummer in the south central states, but were onto it by the mid-July to mid-\nAugust period. The general prevailing pattern of warmth in the north and\ncoolness in the south were correctly indicated by the summer's monthly out-\nlooks, although most suffered from the usual inability to define the typical\nsmall-scale variability of warm season convective precipitation patterns.\n80","D + 8 500MB NORTH AMERICAN AREA\nSTANDARDIZED CORRELATION SCORES\n50\n45\n40\nOFFICIAL\nMRF\nECMWF\nCLIMATOLOGY = o\n35\nJAN 83-88\nJAN 89\nTO\nTO\nSEP 83-88\nSEP 89\nFigure 49 A plot of the 6-year (January-September 1983-1988) - and 1 - year\n(January- September 1989) North America standardized correlation\nscores for the official, MRF, and ECMWF D+8 500 mb progs.\n81","MONTHLY OUTLOOK\nFOR FEBRUARY 1989\nHEAVY\nWARM\n35\n30\n35\n40\n45\n30\nso\n40\n30\nHEAVY\nLIGHT 35\n:50\nCOLD\nso\n40\n30\n35\n5\nPRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES\nTEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES\nOBSERVED FOR FEBRUARY 1989\nBASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS\nHEAV\nW ARM\nEAV\nWARM\nLIGHT\nNEAR NO\nAL\nCOLD\nLIGHT\nMOD\nMODERATE\nNEAR,\nNORMAL\nCOLD\nWARM\nFLIGHT\nMQD\nFigure 50 Forecast temperature and precipitation probabilities for February\n1989 (top) Bottom panels are observed temperature and precipitation\nfor February 1989.\n82","Several cost-saving measures were attained in the production of fore-\ncast guidance and the dissemination of final products. The latter was partly\ndue to the automation of hand-drawn 700 mb charts, which also led to more\nrapid computation of objective temperature and precipitation forecasts.\n6.4.3 Seasonal Outlook (Livezey)\nThe unusually mild winter in the eastern and southeastern United States\nwas well forecast, but extensive cold weather in the Great Basin was not.\nDryness along the Gulf Coast and in Florida was also accurately forecast with\nhigher than usual probabilities. This was achieved with the help of a strong\nempirical relationship to unusually cold water along the equator in the east-\nern Pacific. Part of the wet weather in the Ohio Valley was also correctly\nindicated (Fig. 51). Similar good and weak points were noted in the forecast\nfor the January through March period. Also, summer dryness in the northern\nPlains and upper Mississippi Valley during late spring and early summer was\ncorrectly forecast. Warmth in the Southwest, the northern Plains and along\nthe south Atlantic Coast was well forecast, but most of the cool and wet\nweather observed in the interior south was not.\nSeveral new operational tools were implemented that affected the analog\nprediction system. These included: (1) improved estimates of the antecedent\nclimate by use of the latest medium-range forecast; (2) use of solar flux and\nQBO phase as inputs for Fall and Winter forecasts; and (3) an objective mix of\nthe forecast with a persistence forecast. In conjunction with the latter,\nmore informative skill diagnostics are now available to forecasters. Finally,\nlike the monthly outlook, several cost-saving steps were taken to increase the\nefficiency in both the production and dissemination of the forecasts.\n6.4.4 Modernization of Forecast Operations (0'Lenic)\nA major effort was initiated on streamlining and modernizing the 6 to\n10-, 30- and 90-day forecast operations. Initial phases of the modernization\nhave focused on automating support activities that had to be performed\nmanually. These included: the acquisition, quality control, plotting, and\nanalysis of observed and forecast data; map digitization for insertion into\nthe AFOS system; the verification of forecasts; and the drafting of all final\ncharts for publication. Foremost in importance is the timely and reliable\ntransfer of data between the main-frame computer (NAS9000) and an Apollo work-\nstation, on which much of the modernization procedures depend. Transfers of\nnon-binary data and binary data is nearing completion. Currently daily,\nmonthly and seasonal observations of climate variables are routinely placed in\nresidence on the Apollo system. Next, a fundamental interactive graphics\ncapability was constructed (by K. Ward, contractor) to digitize upper-air\nheight and probability maps, to display digitized contours and results of\nradial-scan analyses on screen, and to automate multicolor plots of observed\nclimatological data. Also, computational software was developed that\nincludes: radial-scan analysis, a simple compositing routine, and a statisti-\ncal scheme to compute surface temperature and precipitation from forecasted\nupper-air heights. Finally, software is being developed to permit quasi-auto-\nmated production of the printed version of the Monthly and Seasonal Outlook.\n83","90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 1988 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1989\nHEAVY\n30\n32\nCOLD\n35\n35\n32\n35\n0\n401\n30\n35\n35\nWARM\n40\n40\nLIGHT\nTEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES\nPRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES\nOBSERVED FOR DECEMBER 1988 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1989\nBASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS\nNEAR\nNORMAL\nMOD\nMODERATE\nHEAVY\nMOD\nWARN\nNEAR\n:LIGHT\nNORMAL\nMOD\nTEMPERATURE\nPRECIPITATION\nFigure 51 Forecast temperature and precipitation probabilities for December\n1988 - February 1989 (top). Bottom panels show observed temperature\nand precipitation for same period.\n84","6.5\nSupporting Projects\n6.5.1 Anomaly History and Teleconnection (Wagner)\nTo complement 3-month mean charts of 700 mb heights and anomalies (Fig.\n52), corresponding monthly and seasonal U. S. mean temperature and precipita-\ntion anomaly maps are being utilized for operations. CAC's Prediction Branch\nnow has a complete data set of 90-day temperature and precipitation anomalies\nfor non-standard seasons, back to 1947. Thus far, seasonal anomaly maps have\nbeen produced for June-August through November- January seasons (Fig. 53).\n.\nTemperature and precipitation anomalies that are computed from the same base\nperiod (1951-80) as the corresponding 700 mb height anomalies are also now\navailable for the first time.\nSelected teleconnection maps continue to be produced on an operational\nbasis for use in the 6-10 day and monthly forecast operations. In addition,\ncomplete sets of teleconnection maps for all useful grid points in the North-\nern Hemisphere were made available on microfilm for the months of December\nthrough June, based on 40 years of data.\n85","140E\n130E\n120E\n110E\n100E\nDOE\n8DE\n70E\n60E\nOI\n0\n150E\n50E\nD\n21\n-35\n608\n40E\n-7\n- 14\n170E\n30E\n-\ndo\n5\n-12\n6\n80\n1220E\n1\nVR.\nto\n20*\n3\n40\n6\n60\"\n70\n80\n170\nIGE\n0\n59\n31\n60,\n00w\n1501\nlow\n1\n2\n3\nX\n40\n20W\n8\n20\n30W\n30W\nII\nS\nes\n120N\nLION\n100M\n90W\nBOW\n70M\n60W\n60*\n40W\nSEASONAL\nMEAN\n700 MB HT & DN (M)\nJUL\nAUG\nSEP\n1967\nCONTOUR INTERVAL HT\n60\nM\nDN 15\nM\nFigure 52 Seasonal mean 700 mb height and anomaly patterns (July - September\n1967). .\n86","TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES JUL 67 - SEP 67\n< 10\n10 <\n< 30\n70\n< 90\n90 <\nPRECIP PERCENTILES\nJUL 67 - SEP 67\n:\n< 10\n-\n10 <\n< 30\n..\n.\n70<\n< 90\n90\n:\n.\nFigure 53 U.S. seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies in percentiles\n(July - September 1967).\n87","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\n88","7. SUMMARIES\n7.1\nTOGA/EPOCS Activities\n7.1.1 TOGA\nThe primary focus of TOGA activities is on operational ENSO monitoring\nand associated oceanic-atmospheric research. The accomplishments for related\ntasks are described in preceding sections of this report, which include:\nSection 1 (2.4, 2.5); Section 2 (1.1, 1.3, 1.6, 2.2, 3.1, 4.1); and Section\n3 (1.2).\nCAC staff participated at the following TOGA Meetings: TOGA Data Man-\nagement Meeting (Washington, DC, Oct. 25-28, 1988); NAS TOGA Advisory Panel\nMeeting (Washington, D. C. Dec. 14-15, 1988), TOGA/COARE Scientific Working\nGroup Meeting (Anaheim, CA, Jan. 31, 1989) ; TOGA Atmospheric Meeting (Miami,\nFL, Feb. 10, 1989); TOGA Ocean Observing System Meeting (Honolulu, HI, Mar. 8-\n10, 1989) Monsoon Activities Meeting (State College, PA, Feb. 13-14, 1989)\nNAS TOGA Panel Meeting (Washington, D. C., April 11-13, 1989); Western\nPacific International Meeting and Workshop on TOGA/COARE (Noumea, New\nCaledonia, May 24-30, 1989); Ad Hoc Panel on TOGA XBT Strategy (Noumea, New\nCaledonia, May 31-June 1, 1989) ; International TOGA Scientific Steering Group,\nthe TOGA Numerical Experimentation Group and the TOGA Monsoon Numerical Exper-\nimentation Group (Hamburg, FRG, Sept. 18-22, 1989); and the NAS TOGA Advisory\nPanel Meeting (Seattle, WA, Aug. 14-15, 1989).\nA number of presentations were made at the above meetings by members\nCAC's Diagnostics Branch staff. The references are listed in Section 8.3.\n7.1.2 EPOCS\nThe primary focus of EPOCS research is on atmospheric diagnostics and\nocean modeling. The accomplishments for related tasks are described in\npreceding sections of this report, which include: Section 1 (1.1 1, 1.2, 1.3,\n2.1, 2.2); and Section 3 (1.1).\nCAC staff participated at the EPOCS Annual Meeting (Miami, FL, Feb. 7-\n9, 1989). Presentations were made on: the NMC operational surface fluxes\n(Reynolds), the ENSO prediction effort (Ropelewski) and proposed changes to\nthe EPOCS program management structure (Arkin).\nA number of CAC proposals were submitted for FY 90 EPOCS funding.\nThe projects include: \"Episodic Tropical Convection and Associated Global\nCirculation Changes During 1974-1989,\" (Arkin); \"Atmospheric Teleconnection\nDynamics During the 1986-88 ENSO Cycle,\" (Mo and Rasmusson); \"Analysis of the\nGlobal SO Signal, (Ropelewski); and \"Reanalysis for 1985-88 and Real-Time\nMonitoring of the Tropical Pacific Ocean,\" (Leetmaa and Reynolds).\n89","7.2\nBilateral Activities\n7.2.1 - Indian Bilateral Agreement (Arkin)\nNo activity during this period.\n7.2.2 U. - Brazilian Bilateral Agreement (Kousky)\nUnder the auspices of the Bilateral Agreement for Science and Technol- -\nogy between the United States and Brazil, several Brazilian scientists have\nvisited NMC during this period. Dr. Paulo Bonatti spent 2 months interacting\nwith researchers in the Development Division on aspects of the tropical bound-\nary layer in the MRF model. Dr. Prakki Satyamurti arrived in November 1988\nfor a 6-month visit with the Meteorological Operations Division to become\nfamiliar with operational forecasting procedures and to produce experimental\nforecast guidance for the South American sector. Dr. Mary Kayano (UCAR Post-\nDoc from Brazil) arrived in January 1989 for a 6-month visit to the CAC to\nperform research on persistent anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere.\nAlso, CAC (Kousky) has been involved in preparing daily discussions and\nforecasts which have been distributed to South American countries via the GTS.\nIn late January, the NMC South American Desk was established to meet the ur-\ngent pleas for assistance received from Argentina and Uruguay. Both countries\nand southern Brazil have been experiencing drought conditions since mid-1988.\nIn May, a trip was made to Brazil (by Kousky) to finalize plans for\ncooperation with Brazil under the guidelines of the U.S.-Brazilian - Science and\nTechnology Initiative. Several Workshops are planned for the areas of\nNumerical Weather Prediction, Climate Studies, and Oceanography over the next\ntwo years.\nA course on the uses of satellite data in weather analysis and fore-\ncasting was presented (by Kousky) at the Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais\n(INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil, during August 14-24, 1989. In addi-\ntion, three seminars were given (Kousky) at the Fundacao Cearense de Meteoro-\nlogia e Recursos Hidricos (FUNCEME), Fortaleza, CE, Brazil on the uses of\nsatellite data in climate monitoring.\n7.2.3 U.S. - Soviet Bilateral (Ropelewski)\nA 6-month CLIMAT data intercomparison was initiated in January 1989, as\npart of the U. S. -Soviet - Bilateral Agreement. Data have been archived at CAC,\nwhile G. Gruza (USSR Department of Climate Monitoring/HYDROMET) has confirmed\nthat WDC/A-Moscow is also archiving these data for an exchange at the end of\n1989.\nThree Soviet scientists attended the 13th Annual Climate Diagnostics\nWorkshop held in Cambridge, MA, (Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988). A Soviet sponsored\nClimate Diagnostic/Prediction Meeting has been planned for November 1989 in\nMoscow, USSR. Three CAC staff members will attend and make presentations.\n90","7.2.4 Nile Basin Project (Rodenhuis, Arkin)\nA meeting (Arkin participated) was held in Cairo, Egypt (Oct. 10-20,\n1988) to prepare an Implementation Plan for climate monitoring and prediction\nactivities within the HYFAM Center.\nData, regarding current climatic conditions of possible significance to\nNile Basin rainfall, were provided to Dr. Bayoumi of the Egyptian Ministry of\nPublic Works and Water Resources.\n7.3 World Climate Programme Activities\n7.3.1 Climate Systems Monitoring (Ropelewski)\nA meeting was held with K. Davidson (Senior Scientific Officer) to plan\nand discuss the outline of the next in a series of biennial CSM reports. CAC\nagreed to provide a series of seasonal climate summaries to support this\neffort.\nA WMO Climate System Monitoring sponsored Meeting of Experts on CLICOM\nApplications Normals Processing (Ropelewski participated) was held in Silver\nSpring, MD, Mar. 13-17, 1989. Ropelewski also participated in the WMO Climate\nSystem Monitoring Working Group Meeting held in Geneva, Switzerland, May 22-\n26, 1989. The Working Group produced the first draft of the CSM Biennial\nReview.\n7.3.2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (Arkin)\nA visit to the United States was coordinated for Dr. H. Fleer of the\nWest German Weather Service. Dr. Fleer, Director of the Global Precipitation\nClimatology Center, wished to familiarize himself with GPCP activities in the\nU.S. and to obtain information on the processing and archiving of station\nrainfall data. He discussed these matters with CAC, NESDIS, and NASA/GSFC\nscientists and then visited NCDC for further discussions.\nA visit (by Arkin) was made to NCDC/Asheville to discuss activities\n(with Wilkerson, NESDIS) related to the implementation of a Surface Reference\nData Center. A demonstration was held on a modified CLICOM system, which will\nbe used in this project.\nDiscussions were held at NASA/GSFC (with Short and Thiele) on the coor-\ndination of ground truth tasks for GPCP and TRMM . A briefing on progress\nin\nrainfall estimation using SSM/I microwave data was received (from Wilheit).\nBriefings were presented on the Global Precipitation Climatology Proj-\nect to the TOGA/COARE Science Working Group and the GEWEX Scientific Steering\nGroup (Anaheim, CA, Jan. 1989). A visit was made to the Polar Satellite\nPrecipitation Data Center (NASA/GSFC) to hold discussions with the Calibra-\ntion/ Validation Project Manager in regard to project coordination.\nA meeting (chaired by Arkin) was held at CAC (April 1989), where an\nAlgorithm Intercomparison Program (AIP) and its first project were defined.\nThe project will focus on an area around Japan during summer 1989. CAC will\n91","coordinate the data processing and analysis for this component of the GPCP.\nFuture projects of the AIP are also proposed for the UK and the central\nequatorial Pacific.\nA meeting was held between Arkin/CAC, M. Morrissey (University of\nHawaii) and NASA/NOAA personnel in San Diego (May 19, 1989). Discussions were\nheld on a new method of validating large-scale precipitation estimates using\nnon-contiguous sets of station data.\nA WetNet Meeting (Arkin attended) was held in Madison, WI, (June 13-15,\n1989). WetNet is a NASA program that will foster collaborative research on\nestimation of precipitation and surface characteristics using SSM/I data.\nArkin presented a description of potential applications for SSM/I data in GPCP\nwork and was invited to be a WetNet system scientist.\nThe Fourth Meeting of the Working Group on Data Management for the GPCP\nwas held in Bristol, U. K. (July 26-28, 1989). It was attended by Arkin, who\nserved as Chairman, and Janowiak.\nA visit (by Arkin) was made to the Global Precipitation Climatology\nCenter of the GPCP in Offenbach, FRG (Sept. 13-15, 1989). He presented a\nbriefing on satellite precipitation estimation techniques and received brief-\ning on the activities of the Center.\n7.3.3 GEWEX (Arkin)\nA GEWEX/Scientific Steering Group Meeting was held in Pasadena, CA\n(Feb. 7-10, 1989), where Arkin served as a member of a working group on pre-\ncipitation.\nA paper was completed that describes IR threshold precipitation\nestimation techniques and their potential application in the retrieval of high\nlatitude precipitation. The manuscript was distributed to members of the\nWorking Group on Precipitation.\n7.4\nNOAA Initiatives\n7.4.1 Climate and Global Change Program (Rodenhuis, Arkin, Ropelewski,\nLeetmaa, Reynolds, Miller)\nProposals that depict CAC activities (FY 89) and plans (FY 90) were\nsubmitted as part of the Climate and Global Change Program. The tasks\ninclude: Climate Data and Ocean Model Assimilation System, Global\nPrecipitation Climatology Project, Vegetation Index, Climate Diagnostics, and\nDetection of Stratospheric Change.\n7.4.2 NOAA Data Management Workshop (Ropelewski)\nInput was provided for a presentation (by W. Bonner, Director/NMC) at\nthe NOAA Data Management Workshop. Ropelewski attended as the CAC represen-\ntative in the Programs Working Group, and he also attended the Data Team\nManagement Meeting on Jan. 18, 1989.\n92","7.4.3 ASOS Climate Working Group\nA major part of the NWS modernization involves the automation of rou-\ntine weather observations under the Automated Surface Observation System\n(ASOS) program. The Climate Analysis Center initiated an investigation of the\nimpacts of ASOS on climate monitoring and research. The activity was formal -\nized with the formation of the ASOS Climate Working Group. The Working Group\nmet (Sept. 19, 1989) to define the ASOS/climate related issues and to formu-\nlate recommendations and questions for the ASOS project office.\nAnnual Climate Diagnostics Workshops\n7.5.\n7.5.1 Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop\nThe Climate Analysis Center and the Atmospheric and Environmental\nResearch Inc. were co-sponsors of the 13th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop\nheld in Cambridge, MA (October 31 - November 4, 1988). The Workshop provided\na forum for researchers to exchange ideas and viewpoints on a variety of\nclimate topics. This meeting focused primarily on research and diagnostic\nstudies of (1) the 1986/1987 ENSO, (2) interannual variability, (3) large-\nscale, ocean-atmosphere interactions, (4) climate models, and (5) medium and\nextended range forecasting. The Proceedings was published and distributed in\nMarch 1989.\n7.5.2 Fourteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop\nThe Climate Analysis Center and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nmade preparations for the upcoming 14th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop to\nbe held in La Jolla, CA (October 16-20, 1989). The focus of this Workshop\nwill be on research and diagnostic studies of (1) ENSO analysis and\nprediction, (2) cean-atmosphere interactions, and (3) global climate\nvariability.\n93","THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK\n94","8. BIBLIOGRAPHY\n8.1. Journal Articles\nArkin, P. A., \"The global climate for December 1988 - February 1989: Cold\nepisode in the tropical Pacific continues,\" Journal of Climate, 2, July\n1989, pp. 737-757.\nArkin, P. A., A. V. R. K. Rao, and R. R. Kelkar, \"Large-scale precipitation and\noutgoing longwave radiation from INSAT-1B during the 1986 southwest monsoon\nseason, Journal of Climate, 2, June 1989, pp. 619-628.\nArkin, P. A., \"The Global Precipitation Climatology Project,\" Advances in Space\nResearch, 7, 1989, pp. (7)311-316.\nBarnston, A. G. and R. E. Livezey, \"An operational multifield analog/anti-analog\nprediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. Part\nII:\nSpring, summer, fall, and intermediate three-month period experiments,\"\nJournal of Climate, 2, June 1989, pp. 513-541.\nChelliah, M. , J. E. Schemm, and H. M. van den Dool, \"The impact of low-latitude\nanomalous forcing on local and remote circulation: Winters 1978/79-\n1986/87, Journal of Climate, 1, Nov. 1988, pp. 1138-1152.\nChen, W-Y., \"Another approach to forecasting forecast skill,\" Monthly Weather\nReview, 117, Feb. 1989, pp. 427-435.\nChen, W. Y. \"Estimates of dynamical predictability from NMC DERF experiments,\"\nMonthly Weather Review, 117, June 1989, pp. 1227-1236.\nJanowiak, J. E., \"The global climate for March-May 1988: The end of the\n1986-87 Pacific warm episode and the onset of widespread drought in the\nUnited States,\" Journal of Climate, 1, Oct. 1988, pp. 1019-1040.\nKousky, V. E., \"Pentad outgoing longwave radiation climatology for the South\nAmerican sector,\" Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 3, 1988, pp. 217-231.\nKousky, V. E., \"The global climate for September-November 1988: High Southern\nOscillation index and cold episode characteristics continued,\" Journal of\nClimate, 2, Feb. 1989, pp. 173-192.\nKousky, V. E., and I. F. A. Cavalcanti, \"Precipitation and atmospheric cir-\nculation anomaly patterns in the South American sector,\" Revista\nBrasileira de Meteorologia, 3, 1988, pp. 199-206.\nKousky, V. E. and A. Leetmaa, \"The 1986-87 Pacific warm episode: Evolution of\noceanic and atmospheric anomaly fields,\" Journal of Climate, 2, Mar. 1989,\npp. 254-267.\nLe Comte, D. M., \"The Weather of 1988: The rains return to the tropics,\"\nWeatherwise, 42, 1, Jan. 1989, pp. 8-12.\nLe Comte, D. M., \"U. S. highlights: A sun-baked summer in the United States,\nWeatherwise, 42, 1, Jan. 1989, pp. 13-16.\n95","Le Comte, D. M., , \"Using AVHRR for early warning of famine in Africa,\" =\nPhotogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 55, 1989, pp. 168-169.\nLeetmaa, A., \"The interplay of E1 Niño and la niña,\" Oceanus, 32, 2, 1989, pp.\n30-34.\nLeetmaa, A., and M. Ji, \"Operational hindcasting of the tropical Pacific\",\nDynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 13, 1989, pp. 465-490.\nLiebmann, B., M. Chelliah and H. M. van den Dool, \"Persistence of outgoing long-\nwave radiation anomalies in the tropics,\" Monthly Weather Review, 117, Mar.\n1989, pp. 670-679.\nMo, K. C., \"The Global Climate for March 1989-May 1989: Cold episode in the\nTropical Pacific decays,\" Journal of Climate, 2, Sept. 1989, pp. 1102-1129.\nMo, K., and M. Ghil, \"Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes,\"\nJournal of Geophysical Research, 93, D9, Sept. 1989, pp. 10,927-10,952\nMurphree, T., , and H. M. van den Dool, \"Calculating tropical winds from time mean\nsea level pressure fields,\" Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45, Nov. 1988,\npp. 3269-3282.\nMurphy, A. H., and E. S. Epstein, \"Skill scores and correlation coefficients in\nmodel verification,\" Monthly Weather Review, 117, Mar. 1989, pp. 572-581.\nNogues-Paegle, J., B-G. Lee, and V. E. Kousky, \"Observed modal characteristics\nof the intraseasonal oscillation,\" Journal of Climate, 2, May 1989, pp.\n496-507.\nO'Lenic, E. A., and R. E. Livezey, \"Relationships between systematic errors in\nmedium range numerical forecasts and some of the principal modes of low-\nfrequency variability of the N. H. 700-mb circulation, Monthly Weather\nReview, 117, June 1989, pp. 1262-1280.\nRao, A. V. R. K., R. R. Kelkar, and P. A. Arkin, \"Estimation of precipitation\nand outgoing longwave radiation from INSAT-1B radiance data,\" Mausam, 40,\n1989, pp. 123-130.\nReynolds, R. W., K. Arpe, C. Gordon, S. P. Hayes, A. Leetmaa, and M. J.\nMcPhaden, \"A comparison of tropical Pacific surface wind analyses,\n=\nJournal of Climate, 2, Jan. 1989, pp. 105-111.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"The global climate for June - August 1988: A swing to the\npositive phase of the Southern Oscillation, drought in the United States,\nrain in monsoon areas,\" Journal of Climate, 1, Nov. 1988, pp. 1153-1174.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"Monitoring large-scale cryosphere/atmosphere interactions,\"\nAdvances in Space Research, 7, 1989, pp. (7) 13-218.\nRopelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, \"Precipitation patterns associated with\nthe high index phase of the Southern Oscillation, Journal of Climate, 2,\nMar. 1989, pp. 268-284.\n96","Saha, S., and H. M. van den Dool, \"A measure of the practical limit of predicta-\nbility,\" Monthly Weather Review, 116, Dec. 1988, pp. 2522-2526.\nTracton, M. S., K. Mo, W. Chen, E. Kalnay, R. Kistler, and G. White, \"Dynamical\nextended range forecasting at the National Meteorological Center, Monthly\nWeather Review, 117, July 1989, pp. 1604-1635.\nTrenberth, K. E., G. W. Brantstator, and P. A. Arkin, \"Origins of the 1988 North\nAmerican drought,\" Science, 242, 1988, pp. 1640-1645.\nvan den Dool, H. M., P. J. Lamb, and R. A. Peppler, \"The active layer of the\nupper Atlantic Ocean,\" Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45, Nov. 1988, pp.\n3236-3251.\nWagner, A. J., \"The impossible hurricane: Could it happen again?,\" Weatherwise,\n41, Oct. 1988, pp. 279-283.\nWagner, A. J. , \"The weather of 1988: Persistent circulation patterns,\"\nWeatherwise, 42, Jan. 1989, pp. 18-21.\nWagner, A. James, \"Medium-and Long-Range Forecasting,\" Weather and Forecasting,\n4, Sept. 1989, pp. 413-426.\nYang, S-K., G. L. Smith, and F. L. Bartman, \"An earth outgoing longwave radi-\nation climate model, Part II: Radiation with clouds included,\" Journal of\nClimate 1, Oct. 1988, pp. 998-1018.\n97","8.2. Articles In Non-Refereed Literature*\nArkin, P. A., \"Estimating climatic scale tropical precipitation from satellite\nobservations, Tropical Rainfall Measurements, A. Deepak Publishing Co.,\n,\nHampton, VA, 1988, pp. 151-158.\nArkin, P. A., and J. E. Janowiak, \"Estimating tropical rainfall from multiple\nsources of information, Preprint Volume of the AMS/Fourth Conference on\nSatellite Meteorology and Oceanography, San Diego, CA, May 16-19, 1989,\npp. 100-103.\nArkin, P. A., K. C. Mo, F. Sornatale, and A. Vernekar, \"Temporal variations in\nthe relationship between analyzed upper tropospheric divergence and\ninferred convection in the tropics, Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual\nClimate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988, pp.\n41-45.\nBarnston, A. G., and E. S. Epstein, \"A precipitation climatology of five-day\nperiods: National patterns of frequencies and amounts,\" Proceedings of the\nThirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov.\n4, 1988, pp. 335-338.\nBarnston, A. G., and Livezey, R. E., \"An evaluation of an association between\nthe 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere,\" Proceedings of the\nThirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 -\nNov. 4, 1988, pp. 102-108.\nBergman, K. H., P. Sabol, and D. Miskus, \"Experimental indices for monitoring\nglobal drought conditions,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 190-197.\nBranstator, G., K. Trenberth, and P. Arkin, \"The April-June 1988 North American\ndrought as a tropically forced phenomenon.\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth\nAnnual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988,\npp. 220-223.\nChen, W. Y. \"Estimates of dynamical predictability from NMC DERF experiments,\" \"\nProceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop,\nCambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 433-436.\nEpstein, E. S., and A. G. Barnston, \"A precipitation climatology of five-day\nperiods,\" NOAA Technical Report, NWS 41, Oct. 1988, 166 pp.\nEpstein, E. S., and A. G. Barnston, \"A precipitation climatology of five-day\nperiods, \" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics\nWorkshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 339-342.\nFinger, F. G., and V. L. Patterson, \"Quality control techniques for surface\nobservation reports as applied at a Meteorological Center,\" Preprint Volume\nof the Fourth WMO Technical Conference on Instruments and Methods of\nObservation (TECIMO-IV), Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium,\nSept. 4-8, 1989.\n*\nIn this Section, 37 of the references also included a presentation at a\nformal Scientific Meeting.\n98","Gallo, K., and T. R. Heddinghaus, \"The use of satellite derived vegetation\nindices as indicators of climatic variability,\" Preprint Volume: AMS/Sixth\nConference on Applied Climatology, Charleston, SC, Mar. 7-10, 1989, pp.\n244-247.\nGhil, M., and K. C. Mo, \"Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere,\"\nProceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop,\nCambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 307-308.\nHalpert, M. S., and C. F. Ropelewski, \"North American droughts of the 1980s: A\nhistorical perspective,\" Preprint Volume: Sixth Conference on Applied\nClimatology, Charleston, SC, Mar. 7-10, 1989, pp. 88-91.\nHalpert, M. S., and C. F. Ropelewski, \"Atlas of Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature\nand Surface Winds,' NOAA Atlas No.8, 1989, 179 pp.\nHeddinghaus, T. R., and D. M. Le Comte, \"A century of agriculture and weather\ndata: The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, Preprint Volume: AMS/Sixth\nConference on Applied Climatology, Charleston, SC, Mar. 7-10, 1989, pp.\n137-144.\nHeddinghaus, T. R., and D. Miskus, \"Operational projections of probable drought\nseverity,\" Proceedings of the 19th Conference on Agriculture and Forest\nMeteorology, Charleston, SC, Mar. 7-10, 1989, pp. 70-74.\nJanowiak, J. E., and P. A. Arkin, \"The Global Precipitation Climatology Project:\nDescription, goals and progress,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual\nClimate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 343-\n346.\nKalnay, E., R. Kistler, M. S. Tracton, and A. Dalcher, \"Forecast skill and the\ndispersion of forecast ensembles,\" Proceedings of the Second WMO Workshop\non the Diagnosis and Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal Atmospheric\nVariations over the Globe, combined with the WMO Symposium on Ocean-\nAtmosphere Interaction Relevant to Long-Range Forecasting, Toulouse,\nFrance, (June 15-19, 1987), WMO/TD No. 261, 1989, pp. 183-184.\nKanamitsu, M., E. Kalnay, and K. C. Mo, \"Climate experiments with the NMC\nmodel,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop,\nCambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 231-234.\nKousky, V. E., and A. Leetmaa, \"Ocean/atmosphere variability during 1985-1988,\"\nProceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop,\nCambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 1-8.\nLe Comte, D., \"A dry winter in U. S. wheat areas,\" Agricultural Outlook,\nApril 1989, pp. 17.\nLeetmaa, A., and M. Ji, \"Interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean\nduring 1985-1988,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics\nWorkshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 9-11.\n99","Livezey, R. E., and K. C. Mo, \"Relationships between monthly mean Northern\nHemisphere circulation patterns and proxies for tropical convection during\nthe northern winter,\" Proceedings of the Second WMO Workshop on the\nDiagnosis and Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal Atmospheric Variations\nover the Globe, combined with the WMO Symposium on Ocean-Atmosphere\nInteraction Relevant to Long-Range Forecasting, Toulouse, France, (June 15-\n19, 1987), WMO/TD No. 261, 1989, p. 53.\nLivezey, R. E., A. G. Barnston, and B.K. Neumeister, \"Mixed analog/persistence\nprediction of U. S. seasonal temperatures, Proceedings of the Thirteenth\nAnnual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988,\npp. 461-467.\nMo,\nK. C., and M. S. Tracton, \"Empirical orthogonal functions and predictability\nof NMC's Medium-Range Forecast Model,\" Proceedings of the Second WMO\nWorkshop on the Diagnosis and Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal\nAtmospheric Variations over the Globe, combined with the WMO Symposium on\nOcean-Atmosphere Interaction Relevant to Long-Range Forecasting, Toulouse,\nFrance, (June 15-19, 1987), WMO/TD No. 261, 1989, pp. 178-182.\nO'Lenic, E. A., Livezey. R. E., and L. W. Hinkelman, \"Amplitude-persistence-\ntransitions of low frequency modes,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual\nClimate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988, pp.\n448-453.\nRasmusson, E. M., and K. C. Mo, \"Vorticity budget of the upper tropical tropos-\nphere as evaluated from NMC analyses,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth\nAnnual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988,\npp. 265-268.\nReynolds, R. W., \"A comparison of tropical surface winds from buoys and\noperational analyses,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 329-334.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Computation of global air-sea climatology,\" Workshop\nReport on Atmospheric Forcing of Ocean Circulation, Tulane University,\nNew Orleans, LA, (January 4-7, 1988) INO Report 89-1, pp. 20-55.\nReynolds, R. W., and D. C. Marsico, \"Progress Report for the TOGA SST Data\nCenter,\" Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter, 50, 1989, pp. 7-9.\nReynolds, R. W., M. Bottomley, and C. K. Folland, \"A comparison of operational\nsea surface temperature analyses for 1982 to 1986,\" Proceedings of the\nSecond WMO Workshop on the Diagnosis and Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal\nAtmospheric Variations over the Globe, combined with the WMO Symposium on\nOcean-Atmosphere Interaction Relevant to Long-Range Forecasting, Toulouse,\nFrance, (June 15-19, 1987), WMO/TD No. 261, 1989, pp. 1-4.\nRodenhuis, D. R. , \"The meteorological causes of drought and long-term climate\npatterns,\" Proceedings of the 65th Agricultural Outlook Conference,\nWashington, D. C., Nov. 30, 1988, pp. 530-533.\n100","Rodenhuis, D. R., V. Kousky, M. Chelliah, and A. Leetmaa, \"Review of ENSO (1986-\n1987), = Proceedings of the Second WMO Workshop on the Diagnosis and\nPrediction of Monthly and Seasonal Atmospheric Variations over the Globe,\ncombined with the WMO Symposium on Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Relevant to\nLong-Range Forecasting, Toulouse, France, (June 15-19, 1987), WMO/TD No.\n261, 1989, pp. 15-24.\nRopelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, \"Typical\" ENSO-precipitation patterns as a\nprediction tool,\" Proceedings of the Second WMO Workshop on the Diagnosis\nand Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal Atmospheric Variations over the\nGlobe, combined with the WMO Symposium on Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction\nRelevant to Long-Range Forecasting, Toulouse, France, (June 15-19, 1987),\nWMO/TD No. 261, 1989, pp. 49-53.\nRopelewski, C. F., M. S. Halpert, and E. M. Rasmusson, \"Climatological aspects\nof the tropical annual cycle,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 57-60.\nTracton, M.S., \"Predictability and its relationship to cyclone/planetary scale\ninteractions,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Diagnostics Workshop, II\nCambridge, MA, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 383-388.\nTracton, M. S., \"Activities in Dynamic Extended Range Forecasting (DERF), at the\nNational Meteorological Center, Washington, D.C.,\" Proceedings of the\nSecond WMO Workshop on the Diagnosis and Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal\nAtmospheric Variations over the Globe, combined with the WMO Symposium on\nOcean-Atmosphere Interaction Relevant to Long-Range Forecasting, Toulouse,\nFrance, (June 15-19, 1987), WMO/TD No. 261, 1989, pp. 200-204.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Monthly precipitation and temperature relations, the\nUnited States, 1931-1987,\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 210-213.\nWagner, A. J., and T. N. Maisel, \"Higher moment statistics from a 40-year sample\nof 15-day mean 700 mb heights\" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Climate\nDiagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31 - Nov. 4, 1988, pp. 347-355.\nWolter, K., and R. E. Livezey, \"Relationships between seasonal circulation modes\nof the tropics and the Northern Hemispheric extratropics, Proceedings of\nthe Thirteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, Oct. 31-\nNov. 4, 1988, pp. 143-146.\nYang, S. K., A. J. Miller, and K. A. Campana, \"Comparing long-wave cloud\nradiation forcing computed by the NMC Medium Range Forecast Model with ERBE\nobservations, Proceedings of the International Radiation Symposium, IRS88,\nLille, France, (Aug. 18-24, 1988), 1989, pp. 346-349.\n101","8.3.\nPresentations at Formal Scientific Meetings*\nArkin, P. A., \"Climatic applications using cloud indexing,\" presented at the\nAID Workshop on Precipitation Estimation, Washington, D.C., Dec. 6-8, 1988.\nArkin, P. A., \"Tropical precipitation measurements,\" presented at the First\nMeeting of the Scientific Steering Group for GEWEX, Pasadena, CA, Feb. 7-\n10, 1989.\nArkin, P. A., \"Monsoon variability,\" presented at the Meeting on the TOGA\nMonsoon Program, State College, PA, Feb. 13-14, 1989.\nArkin, P. A., , \"Weather: The wildcard in policy making,\" presented at the\nSeminar: Inside U.S. Agricultural Policy, Washington, D. C., Mar. 6, 1989.\nArkin, P. A., \"Estimating large-scale tropical rainfall for TOGA,\" presented at\nthe Western Pacific International Meeting and Workshop on TOGA/COARE,\nNoumea, New Caledonia, May 24-30, 1989.\nArkin, P. A., \"Global Precipitation Climatology Project,\" presented at the\nInternational Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (IAMAP)\nMeeting, Reading, U.K., July 31-Aug. 4, 1989.\nBarnston, A. G,, \"The Northern Hemisphere mean January- February flux-climate\nrelationship--1989 update,\" presented at the Workshop on Mechanisms for\nTropospheric Effects of Solar Variability and the QBO, Boulder, CO, June\n20-21, 1989\nCanfield, N. , \"The National Weather Service Automated Surface Observation System\n(ASOS), \" presented at the American Association of State Climatologists\nAnnual Meeting, Bar Harbor, ME, July 9, 1989.\nDionne, J. M., \"Monitoring the climate and the greenhouse effect,\" presented at\nthe Conference on Contemporary Issues in Emergency Management, Emmitsburg,\nMD, Aug. 3, 1989.\nLaver, J. D., \"Drought monitoring, detection and early warning at the Climate\nAnalysis Center, NOAA,\" (Keynote paper), presented at the Prairie Drought\nWorkshop, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, Oct. 11-13, 1988.\nLaver, J. D., \"The 1988 United States drought: Monitoring meteorological\nconditions and impacts, presented at the Annual AGU Meeting, San\nFrancisco, CA, Dec. 5-9, 1988.\nLaver, J. D., \"NOAA's 1988 Drought Advisories: Coordination, distribution and\nimpacts, presented at the Sixth AMS Conference on Applied Climatology,\nCharleston, SC, Mar. 7-10, 1989.\n*There were 37 additional presentations (listed only in Section 8.2) that were\npublished in a Proceedings or a Preprint Volume of a Formal Scientific Meeting.\n102","Laver, J. D. \"CAC interactions and agreements with the Regional Climate\nCenters, \" presented at the NCPO/RCC Climate Services and Applied\nClimatology Workshop, Bar Harbor, ME, July 6, 1989.\nLaver, J. D., \"Update on the 1988/1989 drought situation in the United States\nand Canada,\" presented at the NCPO/RCC Climate Services and Applied\nClimatology Workshop, Bar Harbor, ME, July 7, 1989.\nLaver, J. D., \"Review of recent CAC activities and products,\" presented at the\nAmerican Association of State Climatologists Annual Meeting, Bar Harbor,\nME, July 9, 1989.\nLeetmaa, A., \"Real-time tropical Pacific modeling,\" presented at the Inaugural\nmeeting of The Oceanography Society, Monterey, CA, Aug. 30, 1989.\nLeetmaa, A., \"On the evaluation of fluxes from atmospheric models using ocean\nmodels,\" presented at the Joint Meeting of the JSC/CCCO WGNE, TOGA-NEG,\nTOGA-SSG, and Air-Sea Fluxes Panels, Hamburg, FRG, Sept. 19,1989.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Teleconnection studies and the empirical description of the\nlow- frequency quasi-stationary circulation,\" (Invited talk), presented at\nthe Fourth International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Rotorua, New\nZealand, Mar. 28, 1989.\nLivezey, R.E., \"Variability of skill of long range forecasts and implications\nfor their use and value,\" (Invited talk), presented at the Workshop on\nLong-range Weather Forecasts: Quality and Value, Melbourne, Australia,\nApr. 11, 1989.\nLogan, J. L., \"Drought monitoring activities by the Climate Analysis Center,\nNOAA,\" (Keynote address) presented at the Conference on Drought Management\nin Ohio - Managing Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty, Central State Univ.,\nWilberforce, OH, Apr. 26, 1989.\nMiller, A. J. \"The United States National Plan for Stratospheric Monitoring\n1988-1997,\" presented at the 28th Liege International Astrophysical\nColloquium, Liege, Belgium, June 25-30, 1989.\nMiskus D. M., \"Monitoring of the 1988 U. S. drought and record warmth by the\nClimate Analysis Center, NOAA,\" presented at the Sixth AMS Conference on\nApplied Climatology, Charleston, SC, Mar. 7-10, 1989.\nMiskus, D., \"Weather: Drought and the greenhouse effect\", presented at the\nFederal Emergency Management Agency's National Emergency Training\nCenter, Emmitsburg, MD, Apr. 20, 1989.\nMo, K. C., \"Low-frequency oscillatory modes in the Northern and Southern\nHemispheres,\" presented at the Waves and Instability Conference, San\nFrancisco, CA, Apr. 10-14 1989.\nMo, K. C., \"Oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere,\" presented at the\nInternational Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (IAMAP)\nMeeting, Reading U.K., Aug. 7-11, - 1989.\n103","Mo, K. C., \"Atmospheric teleconnection dynamics during the 1986-1989 ENSO\ncycle,\" presented at the International Association of Meteorology and\nAtmospheric Physics (IAMAP) Meeting, Reading U.K., Aug. 7-11, 1989.\nNagatani, R. M., \"Meteorology of the winter hemisphere as it relates to the\nozone problem,\" presented at the AMS/Seventh Conference on the Meteorology\nof the Middle Atmosphere, San Francisco, CA, Apr. 11-14, 1989.\nNagatani, R. M., \"A comparison of 1989 AASE lower stratospheric winter\ntemperatures with past data,\" presented at the Airborne Arctic\nStratospheric Expedition Project Meeting, Lake Tahoe, CA, July 17-21, 1989.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Evaluation of NMC surface flux fields,\" presented at the\nMeeting of the U.S. WOCE Advisory Group for Model Based, Air-Sea Fluxes,\nNASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, Oct. 24-25, 1988.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Winds, sst and surface fluxes,\" presented at the EPOCS Annual\nMeeting, AOML, Miami, FL, Feb. 7-9, 1989.\nReynolds, R. W. \"Surface marine observations and surface fluxes from\noperational analyses,\" presented at the TOGA Ocean Observing System\nMeeting, Honolulu, HI, Mar. 8-10, 1989.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Evaluation of NMC's operational surface fluxes in the tropical\nPacific,\" presented at the Western Pacific International Meeting and\nWorkshop on TOGA/COARE, Noumea, New Caledonia, May 24-30, 1989.\nReynolds R. W., \"Ocean models and data assimilation,\" presented at the Panel\nMeeting on TOGA XBT Strategy, Noumea, New Caledonia, May 31-June 1, 1989.\nReynolds, R. W., , \"NMC surface heat and momentum fluxes\", presented at the U.S.\nWOCE Advisory Group for Model-Based, Air-Sea Flux Estimates, La Jolla, CA,\nJune 27-29, 1989\nReynolds, R. W., \"The Climate Analysis Center (CAC) sea surface temperature\ndata set supported by NCDS,\" presented at the NASA Climate Data Systems\nWorkshop, Greenbelt, MD, Sept. 20-22, 1989.\nRodenhuis, D. R. \"Drought monitoring and approaches to prediction,\" presented\nat the AAAS Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Jan. 14-19, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"1988 from a climate perspective: Droughts, floods, and a\nreturn to normal?,\" (Invited talk), presented at the Special Climate\nReview (1988), during the 69th Annual AMS Meeting, Anaheim, CA, Jan. 20-\nFeb. 3, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"The CAC ENSO prediction project,\" presented at the\nEquatorial Pacific Ocean Climate System (EPOCS) Review Meeting, Miami FL,\nFeb. 7-10, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"Uncovering North American temperature and precipitation\npatterns associated with the Southern Oscillation, (Invited talk),\npresented at the 6th Annual PACLIM Workshop, Pacific Grove, CA, Mar. 6-8,\n1989.\n104","Ropelewski, C. F., , \"Interannual climate variability in the global tropics,\npresented at the 4th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology,\nRotorua, New Zealand, Mar. 27-31, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F. , \"The Southern Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere temperature\nvariability, 11 presented at the DOE Workshop on Greenhouse-Gas-Induced\nClimatic Change, U. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, May 8-12, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F., , \"Global precipitation patterns associated with the Southern\nOscillation over the 1986-1988 period,\" presented at the Climate Systems\nMonitoring Working Group Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland, May 22, 1989.\nYang, S-K, \"Radiation budget and cloud in the NMC medium-range forecast model:\nA case study, presented at the International Association of Meteorology\nand Atmospheric Physics (IAMAP) Meeting, Reading, U.K., July 31 - Aug. 12,\n1989.\n105","8.4.\nSeminars and Briefings\nArkin, P. A., \"The Global Precipitation Climatology Project,\" presented in\nconjunction with the Climate Analysis Center Seminar Series, NMC, Camp\nSprings, MD, Oct. 6, 1988; at the Ad-Hoc Meeting of Experts on TOGA Data\nManagement, NODC, Washington, D.C., Oct. 25-28, 1988; and at the USDA\nJoint Agricultural Weather Facility, Washington D. C., Nov. 18, 1988.\nArkin, P. A., \"A review of the current state of the tropical Pacific,\" presented\nat the NAS/TOGA Advisory Panel Meeting, Washington, D.C., Dec. 14-15, 1988.\nArkin, P. A., \"ENSO update,\" presented at the U.S. TOGA Advisory Panel Meeting,\nSeattle, WA, Aug. 15, 1989.\nArkin, P. A., \"Satellite precipitation estimation techniques\" presented at\nthe Global Precipitation Climatology Center, West German Weather Service,\nOffenbach, FRG, Sept. 14, 1989.\nArkin, P. A. \"Satellite precipitation estimation techniques,\" presented to\nthe WCRP/CAS Working Group on Numerical Experimentation at the University\nof Hamburg, Hamburg, FRG, Sept. 19, 1989.\nArkin, P. A., \"Simulations of the 1988 Midwest drought in the U.S.,\" presented\nto the TOGA Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group at the University of\nHamburg, Hamburg, FRG, Sept. 21, 1989.\nBarnston, A. G., \"A precipitation climatology of 5-day sequences: National\npatterns of frequency and amounts,\" presented at the Scripps\nInstitution of Oceanography, La Jolla, Ca, Oct. 5, 1988.\nChen, W. Y., \"Interannual variability of skill of NMC medium-range forecasts and\nfeasibility of dynamical forecasting in the extended range,\" presented in\nconjunction with the Climate Analysis Center Seminar Series, NMC, Camp\nSprings MD, Mar. 23, 1989.\nHalpert, M. S., \"Recent North American droughts: A historical perspective,\"\npresented in conjunction with the Climate Analysis Center Seminar Series,\nNMC, Camp Springs, MD, Feb. 22, 1989.\nJanowiak, J. E., \"Global Precipitation Climatology Project,\" briefing for the\nGPCP Working Group on Data Management, University of Bristol, Bristol,\nU.K., July 25, 1989.\nKousky, V. E., \"The use of satellite data in weather analysis and forecasting,\"\nlectures presented at the Instituto de Posquisas Espaciais, São Jose dos\nCampos, San Paulo, Brazil, Aug. 14-24, 1989.\nKousky, V. E., Three seminars entitled: \"Mesoscale circulation system,\" \"The\nSouthern Oscillation, and \"Satellite image interpretation,\" presented at\nthe Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hidricos, (FUNCEME),\nFortaleza, Ceara, Brazil, Aug. 28-30, 1989.\nKousky, V. E., \"The Southern Oscillation,\" presented at Millersville University,\nMillersville, PA, Sept. 27, 1989.\n106","Laver, J. D., \"Review of Climate Analysis Center operational and research\nactivities,\" briefing for the Soil Conservation Service, USDA, Washington,\nD.C., Apr. 12, 1989.\nLaver, J. D., \"National Weather Service drought response activities,\" presented\nat the American Society of Civil Engineers, Washington, D.C., May 15, 1989.\nLeComte, D. M. and J. D. Laver, \"Review of CAC existing and potential support\nproducts and research capabilities for the U. S. Agency for International\nDevelopment,\" presented at the USDA, Washington, D. C., Apr. 28, 1989.\nLeetmaa, A., \"On the status of model-based ocean analyses,\" presented at an\nEPOCS Council Meeting, Boulder, CO, Aug. 2, 1989.\nLehman, R. L., \"Applications of the NWS 30-day forecast,\" presented at the U.S.\nDept. of Agriculture, Washington, D. C., Apr. 21, 1989.\nLehman, R. L., \"Potential economic applications of Monthly and Seasonal\nOutlooks, briefing for Federal Reserve Board visitors, NMC/Climate\nAnalysis Center, Camp Springs, MD, July 26, 1989.\nLehman, R. L., \"CAC Socioeconomic Impacts and Applications Programs\", presented\nat Resources for the Future, Wash. D.C., Aug. 1, 1989; Economic Research\nService, USDA, Wash. D.C., Aug. 17, 1989; and the NWS/Office of Hydrology,\nSilver Spring, MD, Sept. 7, 1989.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Some prospects for modest improvement in seasonal empirical\nprediction, presented in conjunction with the Climate Analysis Center\nSeminar Series, NMC, Camp Springs, MD, Dec. 15, 1988.\nLivezey, R. E., \"Variability of skill of long range forecasts and\nimplications for their use and value,\" presented at the Experimental\nClimate Forecast Center, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, May 2, 1989.\nMo, K., \"Vorticity budget of the upper tropical troposphere as evaluated from\nthe NMC and ECMWF analyses,\" presented in conjunction with the Climate\nAnalysis Seminar Series, NMC, Camp Springs, MD, Mar. 16, 1989.\nMo, K. C., \"Oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere,\" presented\nin\nconjunction with the Climate Analysis Seminar Series, NMC, Camp Springs,\nMD, June 22, 1989.\nMo, K. C., \"Large-scale circulation patterns: Observational\nand\nmodeling\nresults, presented at the Free University of Berlin, Berlin, F.R.G., Aug.\n14, 1989.\nNagatani, R. M., \"Correlative data access (NMC) and test data availability,\"\npresented at the UARS Data Systems Working Group Meeting, Virginia Beach,\nVA, Sept. 18-20, 1989.\nReynolds, R. W., \"TOGA Global SST Data Center report, presented at TOGA Data\nManagement Meeting, NODC, Washington, D. C., Oct. 25-28, 1988.\nReynolds, R. W., \"Surface momentum and heat fluxes from the NMC operational\nmodel,\" presented at PMEL, Seattle, WA, Mar. 6, 1989.\n107","Reynolds, R. W. , \"A real-time global sea surface temperature analysis\",\npresented at the NMC Seminar Series, Camp Spring, MD, Sept. 18, 1989.\nRodenhuis, D. R., \"A review of the current state of CAC TOGA activities,\"\npresented at the NAS/TOGA Advisory Panel Meeting, Washington, D.C., Dec.\n14-15, 1988.\nRopelewski, C. F., , \"Climate variability, precipitation and drought,\" presented\nat NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, Dec. 7, 1988.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"The Diagnostics Branch mission and activities,\" briefing for\nthe Hungarian Meteorological Services delegation, NMC/CAC, Camp Springs,\nMD, May 17, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"The CAC ENSO prediction project,\" presented at the TOGA\nPanel Meeting, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D. C., Apr. 11-13,\n1989\nRopelewski, C. F., \"The CAC mission and activities,\" briefing for Students of\nthe 1989 Summer Institute in Atmospheric Science, NMC, Camp Springs, MD,\nJune 12, 1989.\nRopelewski, C. F., \"Tropospheric biennial variability in the Tropics,\" presented\nin conjunction with the Climate Analysis Center Seminar Series, NMC, Camp\nSprings, MD, July 27, 1989.\nTracton, M. S., \"Predictability and its relationship to scale interaction\nprocesses in blocking,\" presented at the NMC Seminar Series, Camp Springs,\nMD, May 12, 1989; and at NCAR, Boulder, CO, May 24, 1989.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Weather forecasting through analogues--no so impossible\nafter all,\" presented at NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt MD, Jan. 17, 1989; Dept. of\nLand, Air, and Water Resources, Univ. of California, Davis, CA, Apr. 18,\n1989; in conjunction with the Climate Analysis Center Seminar Series, NMC,\nCamp Springs, MD, Apr. 20, 1989; and at NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, July 28,\n1989.\nvan den Dool, H. M., \"Frequency dependence in forecast skill,\" presented in\nconjunction with the Climate Analysis Center Seminar Series, NMC, Camp\nSprings, MD, July 13, 1989; at the Royal Netherland Meteorological\nInstitute, De Bilt, The Netherlands, Aug. 29, 1989; and at University of\nHamburg, Hamburg, FRG, Sept. 13, 1989.\nWagner, A. J., \"Methods of preparing the 6-10 day, monthly, and seasonal\nforecasts by CAC's Prediction Branch,\" presented at the U. S. Dept. of\nAgriculture, Washington, D. C., Apr. 21, 1989.\n108","8.5. GRANT/CONTRACT PROGRAM\nCAC continued its support to universities and private industry to undertake\ndiagnostic studies and research that contribute directly to the improvement of\nCAC's operational monitoring and prediction programs. The results from each\nproject are reported in the literature and in final reports to CAC.\nEach\ninstitution, title of study and principal investigator is listed below.\nStart\nPrincipal\nDate\nInstitution\nTitle\nInvestigator\nOct. 1988\nIll. State Water\nPrecipitation analyses\nLamb\n(New)\nSurvey\nfor central and eastern\nNorth America\nApril 1989\nAtmospheric &\nSpatial relationships between\nGutzler\n(Renewal)\nEnvironmental\nmonthly SST, wind and OLR\nResearch, Inc\nfluctuations over the\ntropical Pacific.\nMay 1989\nUniversity of\nCooperative Institute\nEllingson,\n(Renewal )\nMaryland\nfor Climate Studies\net al.\nMay 1989\nAtmospheric &\nEffects of the NMC GDAS\nRosen\n(Renewal )\nEnvironmental\nsystem on stratospheric\nResearch, Inc.\nanalyses and diagnostics\n109","8.6 NMC/CAC-SPONSORED SEMINAR SERIES\nTITLE:\n\"The Global Precipitation Climatology Project\"\nSPEAKER:\nPhillip A. Arkin\nNMC/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nOctober 6, 1988\nTITLE:\n\"Evidence of Recent Temperature Trends in the Southern\nHemisphere: A Possible Greenhouse Effect\"\nSPEAKER:\nDavid Karoly\nNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory\nMonash University\nClayton, Victoria, Australia\nDATE:\nOctober 21, 1988\nTITLE:\n\"Intraseasonal Disturbances During 1982/83 Enso\"\nSPEAKER:\nJulian Wang\nUniversity of Maryland\nCollege Park, MD\nDATE:\nNovember 10, 1988\nTITLE:\n\"The Sensitivity of Stationary Wave to Variation\"\nSPEAKER:\nS. Nigam\nUniversity of Maryland\nCollege Park, MD\nDATE:\nDecember 8, 1988\nTITLE:\n\"Some Prospects for Modest Improvement in Seasonal\nEmpirical Prediction\"\nSPEAKER:\nRobert E. Livezey\nNMC/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nDecember 15, 1988\n110","TITLE:\n\"Singular Spectrum Analysis Theory and Applications\nto Climate Dynamics\"\nSPEAKER:\nR. Vautard\nUCLA\nLos Angeles, CA\nDATE:\nJanuary 3, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Effect of Clouds on Net Radiation\"\nSPEAKER:\nDavid R. Doelling\nUniversity of Washington\nSeattle, WA\nDATE:\nJanuary 9, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"The Physics of Rain Gauge Exposure and a Suggested\nNew Gauge for Use on Ships\"\nSPEAKER:\nC. K. Folland\nU. K. Meteorological Office\nBracknell, Berkshire, U.K.\nDATE:\nJanuary 19, 1989\n\"Recent North American Droughts: A Historical Perspective\"\nTITLE:\nSPEAKER:\nMichael S. Halpert\nNMC/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nFebruary 16, 1989\n\"Teleconnection Patterns in a Linear Barotropic Model\"\nTITLE:\nSPEAKER:\nGrant Branstator\nNational Center for Atmospheric Research\nBoulder, CO\nDATE:\nFebruary 21, 1989\n111","TITLE:\n\"Vorticity Budget of the Upper Tropical Troposphere\nas Evaluated from NMC and ECMWF Analyses\"\nSPEAKER:\nEugene M. Rasmusson\nCICS/University of Maryland\nCollege Park, MD\nDATE:\nMarch 16, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Some Aspects of Drought Amelioration and Feedback\"\nSPEAKER:\nTom Karl\nNESDIS/National Climatic Data Center\nAsheville, NC\nDATE:\nMarch 17, 1989\nTITLE:\n'Interannual Variability of Skill of NMC Medium-Range\nForecasts and Feasibility of Dynamical Forecasting\nin the Extended Range\"\nSPEAKER:\nW-Y. Chen\nNMC/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nMarch 23, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Observation of Large-Scale Air/Sea Coupled Anomalies\nAcross the Tropical Pacific\"\nSPEAKER:\nDavid S. Gutzler\nAtmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.\nCambridge, MA\nDATE:\nApril 6, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Weather Forecasting Through Analogues\"\nSPEAKER:\nHuug van Den Dool\nCICS/University of Maryland\nCollege Park, MD\nDATE:\nApril 20, 1989\n112","TITLE:\n\"Simple Monthly Water Balance Model for Climate Studies\"\nSPEAKER:\nJohn C. Schaake, Jr.\nNWS/Office of Hydrology\nSilver Spring, MD\nDATE:\nApril 27, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Climate Drift in the GLA Model\"\nSPEAKER:\nS. Schubert\nNASA/GLA\nGreenbelt, MD\nDATE:\nMay 11, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Time Scales of ENSO Variability\"\nSPEAKER:\nEugene M. Rasmusson\nCICS/University of Maryland\nCollege Park, MD\nDATE:\nMay 25, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Climatic Trends and Variability\"\nSPEAKER:\nMichael Ghil\nUCLA\nLos Angeles, CA\nDATE:\nJune 5, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Evaluating Forecasts of Rare Events: Some New Ideas\"\nSPEAKER:\nAlan H. Murphy\nOregon State University\nCorvallis, OR\nDATE:\nJune 13, 1989\n113","TITLE:\n\"Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Tropics\"\nSPEAKER:\nVernon E. Kousky\nNMC/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nJune 15, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Oscillatory Modes in the Global Atmosphere\"\nSPEAKER:\nKingtse C. Mo\nNMC/Climate Anlysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nJune 22, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Intra-Monthly Quasi Periodicities\"\nSPEAKER:\nJohn Lanzante\nUCAR & NMC/Climate Analysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nJune 29, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Intercomparison of Intraseasonal Oscillations in\nThree General Circulation Models\"\nSPEAKER:\nDavid Straus\nUniversity of Maryland\nCollege Park, MD\nDATE:\nJuly 6, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Frequency Dependence of Forecast Skill\"\nSPEAKER:\nHuug van den Dool\nS. Saha\nUniversity of Maryland\nNMC/Development Division\nCollege Park, MD\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nJuly 13, 1989\n114","TITLE:\n\"Forced Zonal Flow over Topography and the 30-60 Day\nOscillation in Atmospheric Angular Momentum\"\nSPEAKER:\nJ. Tribbia\nNational Center for Atmospheric Research\nBoulder, CO\nDATE:\nJuly 20, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Tropospheric Biennial Variability in the Tropics\"\nSPEAKER:\nC. F. Ropelewski\nNMC/Climate Anlysis Center\nCamp Springs, MD\nDATE:\nJuly 27, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Tropical Climate Variability: Multi-Scale\nProcesses and their Interaction\"\nSPEAKER:\nW. Lau\nNASA/Goddard Space Flight Center\nGreenbelt, MD\nDATE:\nAug. 3, 1989\nTITLE:\n\"Interannual and Intraseasonal Variation of\nthe Asiatic Summer Monsoon\"\nSPEAKER:\nC. R. Kongragunta\nResearch and Data System Corp.\nGreenbelt, MD\nDATE:\nAug. 10, 1989\n115","8.7. VISITORS\nName\nAffiliation\nDate\nResearch Data Systems\nOct. 3, 1988\nP. Ardanuy\nLanham, MD\nK. Davidson\nWorld Meteorological Organization\nOct. 5, 1988\nGeneva, Switzerland\nD. Karoly\nMonash University\nOct. 13, 1988\nVictoria, Australia\nOct. 20, 1988\nN. Ferreira\nINPE\nSao Paulo, Brazil\nChief, Central Forecast Office\nOct. 25-27, 1988\nR. Martin Morris\nU.K. Met Office\nBracknell, U.K.\nNov. 14-18, 1988\nM. Gan\nINPE\nSao Paulo, Brazil\nK. Arpe\nECMWF\nNov. 14-18, 1988\nReading, U.K.\nS. Unninayar\nNational Science Foundation\nNov. 18, 1988\nWashington, DC\nT. Karl\nNESDIS/Nat'l Climatic Data Center\nNov. 21, 1988\nAsheville, NC\nD. Short\nNASA/GSFC\nNov. 21, 1988\nGreenbelt, MD\nK.-S. Shin\nTexas A&M University\nNov. 29, 1988\nCollege Station, TX\nHyung-Jae Huh\nClimatic Data Division\nNov. 30, 1988\nKorea Meteorological Service\nSeoul, Korea\nE. J. Jatila\nDirector\nDec. 1, 1988\nFinnish Meteorological Inst.\nHelsinki, Finland\nK. Gallo\nNESDIS/EROS Data Center\nDec. 6, 1988\nJ. Sturdevant\nSioux Falls, SD\nH. Fleer\nChief, GPC Center\nDec. 12-14, 1988\nFRG Weather Service\nOffenbach, FRG\nK. Gallo\nNESDIS/EROS Data Center\nJan. 17, 1989\nSioux Falls, SD\n116","Jan. 27, 1989\nG. C. Schulze\nDirector,\nSouth African Weather Bureau\nCape Town, South Africa\nFeb. 1, 1989\nWriter, Modern Maturity Magazine\nT. Merritt\nPrinceton, NJ\nFeb. 8, 1989\nK. Vissy\nDeputy Director,\nCentral Forecasting Institute\nHungarian Meteorological Service\nBudapest, Hungary\nFeb. 8, 1989\nNWS/WSFO\nE. Berry\nCheyenne, WY\nFeb. 15, 1989\nG. Branstator\nNCAR\nBoulder, CO\nFeb. 21, 1989\nDeputy Director,\nP. W. White\nDynamical Research\nU. K. Meteorological Office\nBracknell, U.K.\nFeb. 21-22, 1989\nS. Leduc\nNOAA/EPA\nResearch Triangle, NC\nFeb. 24, 1989\nInt'l TOGA Project Office\nJ. Martellet\nGeneva, Switzerland\nMar. 2, 1989\nChief, BMRC\nM. Manton\nMelbourne, Australia\nMar. 9, 1989\nMeteorologist, Burmese Weather\nT. Lwin\nService\nRangoon, Burma\nMar. 15, 1989\nST Systems\nN. Rao\nLanham, MD\nMar. 17, 1989\nNESDIS/Nat'l Climatic Data Center\nT. Karl\nAsheville, NC\nMar. 21, 1989\nChief, Ethiopian Weather Service\nW. Degefu\nAddis Ababa, Ethiopia\nMar. 21, 1989\nDirector, Climate Change Program\nP. Sahlstrom\nSwedish Meteorological Service\nOslo, Sweden\nMar. 22, 1989\nNOAA/GFDL\nY. Kushnir\nPrinceton, NJ\nApr. 10, 1989\nOregon State University\nS. Esbensen\nCorvallis, OR\n117","M. Tanaka\nUniv. of Alaska\nApr. 14, 1989\nFairbanks, Alaska\nS. Unninayar\nNational Science Foundation\nApr. 17, 1989\nWashington, DC\nP. Lamb\nIllinois State Water Survey\nApr. 19, 1989\nChampaign, IL\nS. Williams\nU. Of Alabama/NASA\nApr. 28, 1989\nHuntsville, AL\nS. Aldon\nNOAA/NESDIS\nMay 4, 1989\nRedwood City, CA\nM. Coughlan\nClimate Center\nMay 15, 1989\nMelbourne, Australia\nE. Antal\nDeputy President\nMay 17, 1989\nT. Farago\nHead, Climate Division\nC. Nemes\nHead, Climate Information Services\nHungarian Met. Services\nBudapest, Hungary\nM. Ghil\nUCLA\nJune 3, 1989\nLos Angeles, CA\nM. Richman\nIllinois State Water Survey\nJune 12, 1989\nChampaign, IL\nA. H. Murphy\nOregon State University\nJune 12-14, 1989\nCorvallis, OR\nA. D. Moura\nINPE\nJune 27, 1989\nSan Paulo, Brazil\nM. N. Qureshy\nAdvisor, Ministry of\nJuly 14, 1989\nScience and Technology\nGovernment of India\nNew Delhi, India\nJ. Tribbia\nNCAR\nJuly 20, 1989\nBoulder, CO\nJ. Wilcox\nFederal Reserve Board\nJuly 26, 1989.\nR. Cleveland\nWashington, D. C.\nF. Fujioka\nU.S. Forest Service\nJuly 27, 1989.\nM. McCutcheon\nUSDA\nRiverside, CA\nT. Wodajo\nEthiopian Meteorological Service\nAug. 4, 1989\nAddis Ababa, Ethiopia\n118","Asst. Fed. Coordinator for\nAug. 9, 1989\nL. Loman\nDOC/NOAA Meteor. Affairs\nAsst. Fed. Coordinator for\nLt. Cmdr. R. C.\nShowalter\nUSN/USMC\nAsst. Fed. Coordinator for\nCol. F. F. Hauth\nUSAF/USA\nCol. K. P. Freeman Asst. Dep. Fed. Coordinator\nfor USAF/USA\nOffice/Federal Coordinator\nWashington, D. C.\nUndersecretary for Ocean and\nAug. 10, 1989\nDr. J. Knauss\nAtmosphere & NOAA/Administrator\nDept. of Commerce\nWashington, D. C.\nAug. 28 - Sept.\nOregon State University\nS. Esbensen\n1, 1989\nCorvallis, OR\nSept. 20, 1989\nNational Climate Data Center\nR. Quayle\nNOAA/NESDIS\nAsheville, NC\nSept. 20, 1989\nDept. of Geography\nK. Dewey\nU. Of Nebraska\nLincoln, NE\nSept. 20,1989\nR. Jenne\nNCAR\nBoulder, CO\nSept. 20, 1989\nResearch and Applications\nF. Kogan\nNOAA/NESDIS\nWashington, DC\nSept. 22, 1989\nMeteorology Dept.\nS. Yang\nPenn State Univ.\nUniversity Park, PA\nSept. 26, 1989\nDirector, Climatolgy\nDr. A. du Pisani\nData Base Management\nMr. J. van Rooyen\nPretoria,\nRep. of South Africa\n119\nU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1990-261 - 915 05125"]}