Integrating Models and Observations to Better Predict a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

The Arctic is rapidly changing in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. To better prepare for Arctic change, reliable predictions are needed across a range of timescales. This includes sub-seasonal forecasts that aid near-term planning to multi-decadal projections that allow for informed decisions on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The sources of predictability differ across timescales. Accurate initial conditions are critical for near-term forecasts while longer-term climate projections are subject to assumptions on future climate drivers, such as changing greenhouse gas emissions. These predictions use physics-based models to represent the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land. These models simulate the evolution of environmental conditions on timescales of hours to centuries, and have skillfully predicted Arctic change. Innovative methods for simulation assessment, model development, and forecast initialization are allowing better integration of models and observations to advance predictions.

https://doi.org/10.25923/bx13-ja71

Administrative Report