Details:

Journal Title:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Personal Author:
Anderson, D. ; Rueda, A. ; Cagigal, L. ; Antolinez, J. A. A. ; Mendez, F. J. ; ... More +
Anderson, D. ; Rueda, A. ; Cagigal, L. ; Antolinez, J. A. A. ; Mendez, F. J. ; Ruggiero, P. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
CIMRS (Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies)
Description:
Rising seas coupled with ever increasing coastal populations present the potential for significant social and economic loss in the 21st century. Relatively short records of the full multidimensional space contributing to total water level coastal flooding events (astronomic tides, sea level anomalies, storm surges, wave run-up, etc.) result in historical observations of only a small fraction of the possible range of conditions that could produce severe flooding. The Time-varying Emulator for Short- and Long-Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential is presented here as a methodology capable of producing new iterations of the sea-state parameters associated with the present-day Pacific Ocean climate to simulate many synthetic extreme compound events. The emulator utilizes weather typing of fundamental climate drivers (sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc.) to reduce complexity and produces new daily synoptic weather chronologies with an auto-regressive logistic model accounting for conditional dependencies on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, seasonality, and the prior two days of weather progression. Joint probabilities of sea-state parameters unique to simulated weather patterns are used to create new time series of the hypothetical components contributing to synthetic total water levels (swells from multiple directions coupled with water levels due to wind setup, temperature anomalies, and tides). The Time-varying Emulator for Short- and Long-Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential reveals the importance of considering the multivariate nature of extreme coastal flooding, while progressing the ability to incorporate large-scale climate variability into site specific studies assessing hazards within the context of predicted climate change in the 21st century.
Keywords:
[+]
Climatic changes
Source:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(12)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015312
Document Type:
Journal Article
Rights Information:
Other
Compliance:
Submitted
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:a576ee7407d82d256bd1cbf0ed2759445ef1af8a8a5eccaa4a10e763a2afe992
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25738/noaa_25738_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

• No Additional Files

More +